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NASA NTRS2002

Correlation of the Coronal Mass Ejection Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

Conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images show qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions where the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. We present measurements from active region vector magnetograms that start to quantify the dependence of an active region's CME productivity on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we measured the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three separate measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line: I(sub N), the net electric current connecting one polarity to the other; and alpha = (mu)I(sub N)/phi), a flux normalized measure of the field twist). From these measurements and the observed CME productivity of the active regions, we find that: (1) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are statistically correlated with the active region flux content and with each other; (2) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are significantly correlated with CME productivity. The flux content correlates with CME productivity, but at a lower statistically significant confidence level (less than 95%); (3) The net current is less closely correlated with CME productivity than alpha and the correlation of CME productivity with flux content is even weaker. If these differences in correlation strength, and a significant correlation of alpha with flux content, persist to larger active regions, this would imply that the size of active regions does not affect CME productivity except through global nonpotentiality; and (4) For each of the four global magnetic quantities, the correlation with CME productivity is stronger for a two-day time window for the CME production than for windows half as wide or twice as wide. This plausibly is a result of the most counterproductive active regions producing less than one CME per day, and from the active region's evolution often significantly changing the global nonpotentiality over the course of several days. These results establish that measures of active region global nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms (such as L(sub SS), I(sub N), and alpha) should be useful for prediction a active region CMEs.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Batse Triggered Observations of Galactic Superluminal Sources GROJ1655-40

We have analyzed multiwavelength data of galactic superluminal sources including GROJ1655-40. Currently there are thirteen X-ray binaries, in which the masses of the invisible and compact objects have been determined to be much higher than three solar masses, the well-known upper limit to the mass of a neutron star. Because no stable and compact objects are believed to exist above this limit, these compact objects are consequently considered as stellar mass black holes, though clean evidence of strong gravity effects around the assumed black holes is very rare. From optical and radio observations, their system inclination angles have been determined to range between 25 degrees and 80 degrees, but peaked between 60-70 degrees. This peak is not explained in the frame work of Newtonian gravity in these systems. However, this peak is reproduced naturally if we model the observed X-ray radiation as being produced in the accretion disks very close to the black hole horizons, where the extremely strong general and special relativistic effects, caused by the extremely strong gravity near the black hole horizons, modify the local radiation significantly as the X-rays propagate to the remote observer.

Zhang, Shuang Nan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Discovery of Cyclotron Resonance Features in the Soft Gamma Repeater SGR 1806-20

We report evidence for cyclotron resonance features from the Soft Gamma Repeater SCR 1806-20 in outburst, detected with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in the spectrum of a long, complex precursor that preceded a strong burst. The features consist of a narrow 5.0 keV absorption line with modulation near its second and third harmonics (at 11.2 keV and 17.5 keV respectively). The line features are transient and are detected in the harder part of the precursor. The 5.0 keV feature is strong, with an equivalent width of approx. 500 eV, and a narrow width of < 0.4 keV. Interpreting the features as electron cyclotron lines in the context of accretion models leads to a large mass-radius ratio (M/R > 0.3 Solar Mass/km) that is inconsistent with neutron stars, or requires a low (5 - 7) x 10(exp 11) G magnetic field that is unlikely for SGRs. The line widths are also narrow compared to those of electron cyclotron resonances observed so far in X-ray pulsars. In the magnetar picture, the features are plausibly explained as ion cyclotron resonances in an ultra-strong magnetic field, which have recently been predicted from magnetar candidates. In this view, the 5.0 keV feature is consistent with a proton cyclotron fundamental whose energy and width are close to model predictions. The line energy would correspond to a surface magnetic field of 1.0 x 10(exp 15) G for SGR 1806-20, in good agreement with that inferred from the spin-down measure in the source.

Ibrahim, A. I.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Experimental Investigation of Separated and Transitional Boundary Layers Under Low-Pressure Turbine Airfoil Conditions

Modern low-pressure turbine airfoils are subject to increasingly stronger pressure gradients as designers impose higher loading in an effort to improve efficiency and to reduce part count. The adverse pressure gradients on the suction side of these airfoils can lead to boundary-layer separation, particularly under cruise conditions. Separation bubbles, notably those which fail to reattach, can result in a significant degradation of engine efficiency. Accurate prediction of separation and reattachment is hence crucial to improved turbine design. This requires an improved understanding of the transition flow physics. Transition may begin before or after separation, depending on the Reynolds number and other flow conditions, has a strong influence on subsequent reattachment, and may even eliminate separation. Further complicating the problem are the high free-stream turbulence levels in a real engine environment, the strong pressure gradients along the airfoils, the curvature of the airfoils, and the unsteadiness associated with wake passing from upstream stages. Because of the complicated flow situation, transition in these devices can take many paths that can coexist, vary in importance, and possibly also interact, at different locations and instances in time. The present work was carried out in an attempt to systematically sort out some of these issues. Detailed velocity measurements were made along a flat plate subject to the same nominal dimensionless pressure gradient as the suction side of a modern low-pressure turbine airfoil ('Pak-B'). The Reynolds number based on wetted plate length and nominal exit velocity, Re, was varied from 50;000 to 300; 000, covering cruise to takeoff conditions. Low, 0.2%, and high, 7%, inlet free-stream turbulence intensities were set using passive grids. These turbulence levels correspond to about 0.2% and 2.5% turbulence intensity in the test section when normalized with the exit velocity. The Reynolds number and free-stream turbulence level do not have a significant effect on the location of boundary-layer separation unless they are high enough to induce transition upstream of separation. The location and extent of the transition zone, in contrast, depend strongly on Re and TI. The beginning of reattachment closely follows the onset of transition. Under low free-stream turbulence conditions the boundary layer is laminar at separation and then begins to exhibit fluctuations in a finite frequency band in the shear layer over the separation bubble. These fluctuations are due to instability waves. The fluctuations grow in magnitude, higher harmonics are generated, and finally lead to a breakdown to turbulence. Transition begins in the shear layer, but quickly spreads to the near wall region and causes the boundary layer to reattach. The transition is rapid and the resulting turbulence contains a full range of high and low frequencies. Under high free-stream turbulence conditions, slowly growing low-frequency fluctuations are induced in the pretransitional boundary layer by the free-stream. The separation bubbles are considerably thinner than in the low TI cases, resulting in thinner boundary layers at the end of the test wall. At Re=50,000 and 100,000, the pre-transitional boundary layer separates at about the same location as in the low TI cases. Transition occurs through a bypass mode, begins upstream of the corresponding low-TI location, and proceeds in a manner similar to that of an attached boundary layer. Under high TI at Re=200,000 and 300,000, transition begins before separation. The boundary layer may separate, but if it does the separation bubble is very short and does not significantly affect the downstream development of the boundary layer. A comparison is made to previous work in a simulated cascade.

Hultgren, Lennart S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Unsteady Pressures in a Transonic Fan Cascade Due to a Single Oscillating Airfoil

An extensive set of unsteady pressure data was acquired along the midspan of a modern transonic fan blade for simulated flutter conditions. The data set was acquired in a nine-blade linear cascade with an oscillating middle blade to provide a database for the influence coefficient method to calculate instantaneous blade loadings. The cascade was set for an incidence of 10 dg. The data were acquired on three stationary blades on each side of the middle blade that was oscillated at an amplitude of 0.6 dg. The matrix of test conditions covered inlet Mach numbers of 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 and the oscillation frequencies of 200, 300, 400, and 500 Hz. A simple quasiunsteady two-dimensional computer simulation was developed to aid in the running of the experimental program. For high Mach number subsonic inlet flows the blade pressures exhibit very strong, low-frequency, self-induced oscillations even without forced blade oscillations, while for low subsonic and supersonic inlet Mach numbers the blade pressure unsteadiness is quite low. The amplitude of forced pressure fluctuations on neighboring stationary blades strongly depends on the inlet Mach number and forcing frequency. The flowfield behavior is believed to be governed by strong nonlinear effects due to a combination of viscosity, compressibility, and unsteadiness. Therefore, the validity of the quasi-unsteady simplified computer simulation is limited to conditions when the flowfield is behaving in a linear, steady manner. Finally, an extensive set of unsteady pressure data was acquired to help development and verification of computer codes for blade flutter effects.

Lepicovsky, J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The X-Ray Warm Absorber in NGC 3516

The Seyfert 1 galaxy, NGC 3516 has been the subject of many absorption line studies at both ultra-violet and X-ray wavelengths. In the UV, strong, broad, variable associated metal line absorption with velocity width approximately 2000 km s(exp -1) is thought to originate in gas with N(sub H)greater than or approximately 10(exp 10)cm (exp -2) lying between 0.01 and 9 pc from the central active nucleus. The Ginga X-ray data are consistent with several possibilities: a warm absorber and a cold absorber combined either with partial covering or an unusually strong reflection spectrum. We present ROSAT observations of NGC 3516 which show a strong detection of a warm absorber dominated by a blend of 0 VII/O VIII edges at approximately 0.8 keV with N(sub H) approximately 7x10(exp 21)cm(exp -2), and U:8-12. We argue that NGC 3516 contains an outflowing 'XUV' absorber showing the presence of X-ray absorption edges which are consistent with the presence of broad absorption lines in the old IUE spectra and their disappearance in the new UV observations. Our dynamical model suggests that the O VII absorption edge will continue to weaken compared to the O VIII edge, an easily testable prediction with future missions like AXAF. Eventually the source would be transparent to the X-rays unless a new absorption system is produced.

Mathur, Smita↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Pathways of the Return Flow of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Tropical Atlantic

A numerical model of the tropical Atlantic ocean is used to investigate the upper layer pathways of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the tropical Atlantic. The main focus of this thesis is on those parts of the tropical circulation that are thought to be important for the MOC return flow, but whose dynamics have not been understood yet. It is shown how the particular structure of the tropical gyre and the MOO act to inhibit the flow of North Atlantic water into the equatorial thermocline. As a result, the upper layers of the tropical Atlantic are mainly fed by water from the South Atlantic. The processes that carry the South Atlantic water across the tropical Atlantic into the North Atlantic as part of the MOO are described here, and three processes that were hitherto not understood are explained as follows: The North Brazil Current rings are created as the result of the reflection of Rossby waves at the South American coast. These Rossby waves are generated by the barotropically unstable North Equatorial Countercurrent. The deep structure of the rings can be explained by merger of the wave's anticyclones with the deeper intermediate eddies that are generated as the intermediate western boundary current crosses the equator. The bands of strong zonal velocity in intermediate depths along the equator have hitherto been explained as intermediate currents. Here, an alternative interpretation of the observations is offered: The Eulerian mean flow along the equator is negligible and the observations are the signature of strong seasonal Rossby waves. The previous interpretation of the observations can then be explained as aliasing of the tropical wave field. The Tsuchyia Jets are driven by the Eliassen-Palm flux of the tropical instability waves. The equatorial current system with its strong shears is unstable and generates tropical instability waves.

Jochum, Markus↗
NASA NTRS2002

Discovery of Cyclotron Resonance Features in the Soft Gamma Repeater SGR 1806-20

We report evidence of cyclotron resonance features from the Soft Gamma Repeater SGR 1806-20 in outburst, detected with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer in the spectrum of a long, complex precursor that preceded a strong burst. The features consist of a narrow 5.0 keV absorption line with modulation near its second and third harmonics (at 11.2 keV and 17.5 keV respectively). The line features are transient and are detected in the harder part of the precursor. The 5.0 keV feature is strong, with an equivalent width of approx. 500 eV and a narrow width of less than 0.4 keV. Interpreting the features as electron cyclotron lines in the context of accretion models leads to a large mass-radius ratio (M/R greater than 0.3 solar mass/km) that is inconsistent with neutron stars or that requires a low (5-7) x 10(exp 11) G magnetic field that is unlikely for SGRs. The line widths are also narrow compared with those of electron cyclotron resonances observed so far in X-ray pulsars. In the magnetar picture, the features are plausibly explained as ion cyclotron resonances in an ultra-strong magnetic field that have recently been predicted from magnetar candidates. In this view, the 5.0 keV feature is consistent with a proton cyclotron fundamental whose energy and width are close to model predictions. The line energy would correspond to a surface magnetic field of 1.0 x 10(exp 15) G for SGR 1806-20, in good agreement with that inferred from the spin-down measure in the source.

Ibrahim, Alaa I.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Shock Structure of Supernova Remnant IC443

We present and discuss ISO observations of IC443, a supernova remnant interacting with a molecular cloud. An SWS spectrum centered on molecular hydrogen clump R10E (RA(2000) = 6 17 7.6, Decl(2000) = 22 25 34.6) is dominated by strong [SiII] (34 microns) emission and the pure rotational transitions of molecular hydrogen ranging from 0-0 S(1) to 0-0 S(13). Fits to these H$-2$ lines imply a large column (approx. 7E19 cm$ {-2)$) of warm (T approx. 700 K) gas and an ortho/para ratio for hydrogen near 3. LWS Fabry-Perot spectra of [OI] (63 microns) and [CII] (158 microns) at positions R10E and C (RA(2000) = 6 17 42.8, Decl(2000) = 22 21 38.1) find broad (approx. 75 km/s), blue-shifted (-40 km/s) line profiles; their similarity strongly suggests a common, shock-generated origin for these two lines. The surprisingly large [CII]/[OI] ratio (approx. 0.1 to 0.2) confirms previous observations with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory. These [CII] and [OI] line intensities, the [SiII] intensity (above), and LWS grating measurements of OH (119 microns) and [OI] (145 microns) are all readily fit by a single, fast J-shock model. Although the [OI] (63) emission can alternatively be produced by a slow C-shock, this ensemble of lines can not be produced by such a shock and provides strong evidence for the existence of a J-shock. A 24-arcmin strip map shows that this far-infrared line emission is spatially correlated with the H$-2$ 1-0 S(1) emission, which most likely arises in an associated C-shock. In addition to this spatially correlated shock emission, the strip map identifies extended [CII] and [OI] emission with a significantly larger line ratio (approx. 0.6); this 'background' component is compared with current J-shock, C-shock, photo-dissociation region (PDR), and X-ray dissociation region (XDR) models in an effort to explain its origin.

Haas, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

CME Prediction from Magnetograms

We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.

Falconer, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mixing and NO(x) Emission Calculations of Confined Reacting Jet Flows in a Cylindrical Duct

Rapid mixing of cold lateral jets with hot cross-stream flows in confined configurations is of practical interest in gas turbine combustors as it strongly affects combustor exit temperature quality, and gaseous emissions in for example rich-lean combustion. It is therefore important to further improve our fundamental understanding of the important processes of dilution jet mixing especially when the injected jet mass flow rate exceeds that of the cross-stream. The results reported in this report describe some of the main flow characteristics which develop in the mixing process in a cylindrical duct. A 3-dimensional tool has been used to predict the mixing flow field characteristics and NOx emission in a quench section of an RQL combustor, Eighteen configurations have been analyzed in a circular geometry in a fully reacting environment simulating the operating condition of an actual RQL gas turbine combustion liner. The evaluation matrix was constructed by varying three parameters: 1) jet-to-mainstream momentum-flux ratio (J), 2) orifice shape or orifice aspect ratio, and 3) slot slant angle. The results indicate that the mixing flow field significantly varies with the value of the jet penetration and subsequently, slanting elongated slots generally improve the mixing uniformity at high J conditions. Round orifices produce more uniform mixing and low NO(x) emissions at low J due to the strong and adequate jet penetration. No significant correlation was found between the NO(x) production rates and the mixing deviation parameters, however, strong correlation was found between NO(x) formation and jet penetration. In the computational results, most of the NO(x) formation occurred behind the orifice starting at the orifice wake region. Additional NO(x) is formed upstream of the orifice in certain configurations with high J conditions due to the upstream recirculation.

Holdeman, James D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2003

Influence of Transient Atmospheric Circulation on the Surface Heating of the Pacific Warm Pool

Analyses of data on clouds, winds, and surface heat fluxes show that the transient behavior of basin-wide large-scale circulation has a significant influence on the warm pool sea surface temperature (SST). Trade winds converge to regions of the highest SST in the equatorial western Pacific. These regions have the largest cloud cover and smallest wind speed. Both surface solar heating and evaporative cooling are weak. The reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds exceeds the reduced solar heating due to enhanced cloudiness. The result is a maximum surface heating in the strong convective and high SST regions. Data also show that the maximum surface heating in strong convective regions is interrupted by transient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Due to the seasonal variation of the insolation at the top of the atmosphere, trade winds and clouds also experience seasonal variations. Regions of high SST and low-level convergence follow the Sun, where the surface heating is a maximum. As the Sun moves away from a convective region, the strong trade winds set in, and the evaporative cooling enhances, resulting in a net cooling of the surface. During an El Nino, the maximum SST and convective region shifts eastward from the maritime continent to the equatorial central Pacific. Following the eastward shift of the maximum SST, the region of maximum cloudiness and surface heating also shift eastward. As the atmospheric and oceanic circulation returns to normal situations, the trade winds increase and the surface heating decreases. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds is one of the major factors that modulate the SST distribution of the Pacific warm pool.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗
NASA NTRS2003

TerraHertz Free Electron Laser Applications for Satellite Remote Sensing

The development of a Free Electron Laser (EL) operating in the terahertz frequency regime by the group at the University of Hawaii (Elias et al.) represents a significant new opportunity in the area of atmospheric remote sensing. The FEL has 2 salient features that create a unique opportunity. First of all it represents the only source in this frequency range with sufficient power to enable lidar instrumentation. Secondly its very high electrical efficiency (several times more efficient than any currently employed spaceborne laser) renders it a strong candidate for use in satellite remote sensing. On the negative side the atmosphere is rather strongly absorbing throughout this frequency range due primarily to the water vapor continuum absorption. This means that the instruments using this laser will not be able to access the lower troposphere because of its very high water concentration.. However the instrument will be very capable of measurements in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. A passive instrument, the Microwave Limb Sounder on the UARS satellite operated by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has already demonstrated that this wavelength region can be used for chemical species with strong emission lines. A lidar would complement the capabilities of this instrument by providing the capability to measure absorbing species in the upper atmosphere. I will discuss the design of such an instrument in greater detail and estimate its performance in measuring a number of chemical species of interest to the Earth Science community.

Heaps, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Shocked Clouds in the Vela Supernova Remnant

Unusually strong high-excitation C I has been detected in eleven lines of sight through the Vela supernova remnant by means of UV absorption-line studies of IUE data. Most of these lines of sight lie near the western edge of the X-ray bright region of the supernova remnant in a spatially distinct band approximately 1deg by 4deg oriented approximately north/south. The high-excitation C I (denoted C I*) is interpreted as evidence of a complex of shocked dense clouds inside the supernova remnant, due to the high pressures indicated in this region. To further analyze the properties of this region of C I*, we present new HIRES-processed IRAS data of the entire Vela SNR. A temperature map calculated from the HIRES IRAS data, based on a two-component dust model, reveals the signature of hot dust at several locations in the SNR. The hot dust is anti-correlated spatially with X-ray emission as revealed by ROSAT, as would be expected for a dusty medium interacting with a shock wave. The regions of hot dust are strongly correlated with optical filaments, supporting a scenario of dense clouds interior to the SNR that have been shocked and are now cooling behind the supernova blast wave. With few exceptions, the lines of sight to the strong C I* pass through regions of hot dust and optical filaments. Possible mechanisms for the production of the anomalously large columns of C I and C I* are discussed. Dense clouds on the back western hemisphere of the remnant may explain the relatively low X-ray emission in the western portion of the Vela supernova remnant due to the slower forward shock velocity in regions where the shock has encountered the dense clouds. An alternate explanation for the presence of neutral, excited state, and ionized species along the same line of sight may be a magnetic precusor that heats and compresses the gas ahead of the shock.

Nichols, Joy S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Mapping Weak Crustal Magnetic Fields on Mars with Electron Reflectometry

One of the great surprises of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission was the discovery of intensely magnetized crust. These magnetic sources are at least ten times stronger than their terrestrial counterparts, probably requiring large volumes of coherently magnetized material, very strong remanence, or both. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of these fields is their large scale coherence and organization into east-west stripes thousands of kilometers long. The anomalies were almost certainly created by thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) in the presence of a strong Martian dynamo. With few exceptions, the crustal fields are associated with the oldest terrain on Mars. Much of the northern lowlands appears to be non-magnetic, except for the relatively weak north polar anomalies and a few sources adja-cent to the dichotomy boundary, which appear to be associated with strongly magnetized crust south of the boundary. There is clear evidence for impact demagnetization of the Hellas, Argyre, and Isidis basins. Thus, Mars' crustal magnetic fields are among the oldest preserved geologic features on the planet.

Mitchell, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Observations of the Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback in UARS MLS and HALOE Data

One of the biggest uncertainties in climate science today concerns the water vapor feedback. Most GCMs hold relative humidity fixed as the climate changes, which provides a strong positive feedback to warming due from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Some in the community, on the other hand, have speculated that tropospheric specific humidity will remain fixed as the climate changes. Observational studies have attempted to resolve this disagreement, but the results have been inconclusive, and few of the studies have focused on the upper troposphere (UT). This is a significant oversight: the surface temperature is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor in the UT owing to the cold temperatures found there. We present an analysis of UARS MLS and HALOE water vapor measurements at 21 5 hPa. We find strong evidence that the water vapor feedback in the UT is positive, but not as strong as fixed relative humidity scenarios. This suggests that GCMs are overestimating the sensitivity of the climate.

Dessler, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Triggering of the Two X-class Flares of 28 and 29 October 2003

From H-alpha movies from Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences and from Prairie View Solar Observatory, hard X-ray movies from RHESSI, line-of-sight magnetogram movies from SOHO/MDI, and vector magnetograms from Marshal Space Flight Center, we examine the magnetic structure and evolution of the large delta-sunspot active region NOAA 10486 in relation to the onset and development of the two X-class flares that occurred in this active region on 28 and 29 October 2003. We find evidence that each of these flares was triggered by strongly sheared magnetic field via "tether-cutting" reconnection with adjacent/overlying strongly sheared field. In the first flare, the initial brightening in H-alpha: (1) was partly rooted in emerging sheared magnetic field along the edge of the large positive-polarity flux domain of the delta sunspot, and (2) consisted of four flare kernels, two in negative magnetic flux and two in positive magnetic flux. In the second flare, the brightening started in the core of a Z-shaped sigmoidal sheared magnetic field and the inner two of four H-alpha kernels were visible in 30-50 Kev hard X-ray image from RHESSI. Each flare spread from the initial quadrupolar brightening to develop into a much larger two-ribbon flare straddling a much more extensive swath of strongly sheared field along the edge of the large positive-flux domain of the delta sunspot, the first flare on the leading side and the second flare on the trailing side of this domain. Thus, localized internal reconnection triggered the explosion of these extensive sheared magnetic fields.

Choudhary, Debi Prasad↗