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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Statistical analysis of AFE GN&C aeropass performance

Performance of the guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system used on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft has been studied with Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the AFE GN&C is investigated with a 6-DOF numerical dynamic model which includes a Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) and a gravitational model with oblateness corrections. The study considers all the uncertainties due to the environment and the system itself. In the AFE's aeropass phase, perturbations on the system performance are caused by an error space which has over 20 dimensions of the correlated/uncorrelated error sources. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at entry interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V capability at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 380 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degrees at EI would result in a 98-percent probability of mission success.

Chang, Ho-Pen↗

Implications of chaos, scale-invariance, and fractal statistics in geology

A set of three nonlinear total differential equations (Lorenz equations) exhibiting deterministic chaos is considered, and it is shown that these equations demonstrate that deterministic equations with deterministic initial conditions can yield stocastic solutions with fractal statistics. The logistic map, fractal distributions, and fragmentation are discussed. It is pointed out that well-defined fractal distributions of earthquakes are found both regionally and globally, and that the general applicability of the fractal relation for seismicity can provide the basis for a quantitative seismic hazard assessment. It is suggested that the governing physics of erosional topography is nonlinear and may be related to a fractal distribution of storms and floods that generate and renew erosional feature such as gullies and drainage systems.

Turcotte, D. L.↗

Homogeneity of spatial correlation statistics of tropical oceanic rainfall

The possibility of uniform horizontal correlation scales for tropical oceanic rainfall has been examined by a study of satellite-observed microwave data as a proxy measure of rain rates. From the brightness temperatures from the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on Nimbus 5 near nadir during the year 1974, the mean spatial autocorrelation function as a function of simultaneous pixel separation was calculated in each 5 by 5 deg grid box over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic for each season. The equal-time spatially lagged correlations were compared for geographical dependence to investigate the hypothesis of homogeneity. A simple model of the spatial statistics of the microwave brightness temperatures was used, consisting of a mixture of uncorrelated spatial white noise incoherently superimposed on a spatially correlated field (spatial red noise). The red noise signals are presumed to be generated by convective activity in the tropical atmosphere. The parameters of the red noise are consistent with this scheme over the tropical oceans, yielding a uniform spatial scale of about 50 km throughout.

Shin, Kyung-Sup↗

Statistics of gravitational lenses - The uncertainties

The assumptions in the analysis of gravitational lensing statistics are examined. Special emphasis is given to the uncertainties in the theoretical predictions. It is shown that a simple redshift cutoff model, which may result from galaxy evolution, can significantly reduce the lensing probability and explain the large mean separation of images in observed gravitational lenses. This effect may affect the constraint on the contribution of the cosmological constant to producing a flat universe from the number counts of the observed lenses. For the Omega(0) = 1 (filled beam) model, the lensing probability of early-type galaxies with finite core radii is reduced roughly by a factor of 2 for high-redshift quasars as compared with the corresponding singular isothermal sphere model. The finite core radius effect is about 20 percent for a lambda-dominated flat universe. It is also shown that the most recent galaxy luminosity function gives lensing probabilities that are smaller than previously estimated roughly by a factor of 3.

Mao, Shude↗

Statistical properties of shock-accelerated ions in the outer heliosphere

Reported here are statistical studied of interplanetary protons (about 0.5-1.5 MeV) as measured by the Voyager 2 spacecraft in the outer heliosphere between about 1 and 22 AU. The acceleration processes which produce the fluctuations in intensity of the protons throughout the interval studied are caused by solar flare-generated shock waves and corotating shock structures in the solar wind. It is found that the proton count rates can be represented by a lognormal distribution, independent of the phase of the solar cycle in which the measurements were made. Power spectra of the logarithm of the counts show that for frequencies in the range of about 0.02-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra can be characterized as about f exp -2. At lower frequencies, the spectra turn over and flatten. Over the entire frequency range studied, about 0.002-0.5 cycles per day, the spectra are therefore nonfractal. The rollover in the spectra at about 100 days probably represents the reorganization time for solar wind streams within the coronal source at the sun.

Lanzeroti, L. J.↗

The application of statistically designed experiments to resistance spot welding

State-of-the-art Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) equipment has the potential to permit realtime monitoring of operations through advances in computerized process control. In order to realize adaptive feedback capabilities, it is necessary to establish correlations among process variables, welder outputs, and weldment properties. The initial step toward achieving this goal must involve assessment of the effect of specific process inputs and the interactions among these variables on spot weld characteristics. This investigation evaluated these effects through the application of a statistically designed experiment to the RSW process. A half-factorial, Taguchi L sub 16 design was used to understand and refine a RSW schedule developed for welding dissimilar aluminum-lithium alloys of different thickness. The baseline schedule had been established previously by traditional trial and error methods based on engineering judgment and one-factor-at-a-time studies. A hierarchy of inputs with respect to each other was established, and the significance of these inputs with respect to experimental noise was determined. Useful insight was gained into the effect of interactions among process variables, particularly with respect to weldment defects. The effects of equipment related changes associated with disassembly and recalibration were also identified. In spite of an apparent decrease in equipment performance, a significant improvement in the maximum strength for defect-free welds compared to the baseline schedule was achieved.

Hafley, Robert A.↗

Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

Shewhart, Mark↗

Generic Techniques for the Calibration of Robots with Application of the 3-D Fixtures and Statistical Technique on the PUMA 500 and ARID Robots

A relatively simple, inexpensive, and generic technique that could be used in both laboratories and some operation site environments is introduced at the Robotics Applications and Development Laboratory (RADL) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In addition, this report gives a detailed explanation of the set up procedure, data collection, and analysis using this new technique that was developed at the State University of New York at Farmingdale. The technique was used to evaluate the repeatability, accuracy, and overshoot of the Unimate Industrial Robot, PUMA 500. The data were statistically analyzed to provide an insight into the performance of the systems and components of the robot. Also, the same technique was used to check the forward kinematics against the inverse kinematics of RADL's PUMA robot. Recommendations were made for RADL to use this technique for laboratory calibration of the currently existing robots such as the ASEA, high speed controller, Automated Radiator Inspection Device (ARID) etc. Also, recommendations were made to develop and establish other calibration techniques that will be more suitable for site calibration environment and robot certification.

Tawfik, Hazem↗

A statistical comparison of two carbon fiber/epoxy fabrication techniques

A statistical comparison of the compression strengths of specimens that were fabricated by either a platen press or an autoclave were performed on IM6/3501-6 carbon/epoxy composites of 16-ply (0,+45,90,-45)(sub S2) lay-up configuration. The samples were cured with the same parameters and processing materials. It was found that the autoclaved panels were thicker than the platen press cured samples. Two hundred samples of each type of cure process were compression tested. The autoclaved samples had an average strength of 450 MPa (65.5 ksi), while the press cured samples had an average strength of 370 MPa (54.0 ksi). A Weibull analysis of the data showed that there is only a 30 pct. probability that the two types of cure systems yield specimens that can be considered from the same family.

Hodge, A. J.↗

Statistics for laminar flamelet modeling

Statistical information required to support modeling of turbulent premixed combustion by laminar flamelet methods is extracted from a database of the results of Direct Numerical Simulation of turbulent flames. The simulations were carried out previously by Rutland (1989) using a pseudo-spectral code on a three dimensional mesh of 128 points in each direction. One-step Arrhenius chemistry was employed together with small heat release. A framework for the interpretation of the data is provided by the Bray-Moss-Libby model for the mean turbulent reaction rate. Probability density functions are obtained over surfaces of the constant reaction progress variable for the tangential strain rate and the principal curvature. New insights are gained which will greatly aid the development of modeling approaches.

Cant, R. S.↗

Global atmospheric circulation statistics, 1000-1 mb

The atlas presents atmospheric general circulation statistics derived from twelve years (1979-90) of daily National Meteorological Center (NMC) operational geopotential height analyses; it is an update of a prior atlas using data over 1979-1986. These global analyses are available on pressure levels covering 1000-1 mb (approximately 0-50 km). The geopotential grids are a combined product of the Climate Analysis Center (which produces analyses over 70-1 mb) and operational NMC analyses (over 1000-100 mb). Balance horizontal winds and hydrostatic temperatures are derived from the geopotential fields.

Randel, William J.↗

Statistically based material properties: A military handbook-17 perspective

This paper describes statistical procedures and their importance in obtaining composite material property values in designing structures for aircraft and military combat systems. The property value is such that the strength exceeds this value with a prescribed probability with 95% confidence in the assertion. The survival probabilities are the 99th percentile and 90th percentile for the A and B basis values respectively. The basis values for strain to failure measurements are defined in a similar manner. The B value is the primary concern of this paper.

Donald M. Neal↗

Recent Advances in Statistical Energy Analysis

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) has traditionally been developed using modal summation and averaging approach, and has led to the need for many restrictive SEA assumptions. The assumption of 'weak coupling' is particularly unacceptable when attempts are made to apply SEA to structural coupling. It is now believed that this assumption is more a function of the modal formulation rather than a necessary formulation of SEA. The present analysis ignores this restriction and describes a wave approach to the calculation of plate-plate coupling loss factors. Predictions based on this method are compared with results obtained from experiments using point excitation on one side of an irregular six-sided box structure. Conclusions show that the use and calculation of infinite transmission coefficients is the way forward for the development of a purely predictive SEA code.

K H Heron↗

Compressional ULF waves in the outer magnetosphere. I - Statistical study

Statistical properties of the ULF waves of period 2-20 min in the outer magnetosphere were studied using 14 months of magnetic field and plasma data obtained by the ISEE 1 and 2 spacecraft. It was found that intense compressional waves with typical wave periods of 10 min are a persistent feature near the two flanks of the magnetosphere; they are mainly polarized in a meridian plane with comparable compressional and transverse amplitudes and have larger amplitudes at higher latitudes. Transverse waves polarized in the azimuthal direction are found to be mainly a nightside phenomenon, and they seem to be associated with substorm activity.

Zhu, Xiaoming↗

Total-sky and clear-sky variability of outgoing longwave radiation and shortwave radiation and its relation to cloud fluctuation statistics

Correlation statistics are used to investigate some of the characteristic temporal and spatial scales of the day-to-day changes in cloudiness which tend to dominate the variance of outgoing LW radiation and SW radiation fields. The temporal decorrelation time of the radiation field as measured by the lag time required for the autocorrelation of a region to fall to 0.4 is about 12 hours in the midlatitude storm track. Decorrelation time approaches one to two days when the averaging area of the region is increased significantly. Decorrelation times are also longer in the equatorial and tropical regions. The short decorrelation times are a manifestation of the creation, breakup, and movement of cloud systems. Cross-correlation analysis of the radiation field in the midlatitude storm track region and the subtropical dry zone shows advection speeds that range from about 25 m/sec in the storm tracks to about 8 m/sec in the subtropical dry zone.

Bess, T. D.↗

Statistics of premixed flame cells

The statistics of random cellular patterns in premixed flames are analyzed. Agreement is found with a variety of topological relations previously found for other networks, namely, Lewis's law and Aboav's law. Despite the diverse underlying physics, flame cells are shown to share a broad class of geometric properties with other random networks-metal grains, soap foams, bioconvection, and Langmuir monolayers.

Noever, David A.↗

Statistical problems of wind-generated gravity waves arising in microwave remote sensing of surface winds

The basic geometric features of a developed sea surface affecting the accuracy of wind speed measurements by satellite instruments are reviewed. Error trends in the satellite winds are shown to be correlated with various measures of wave development. For a developed sea, the influence of the equilibrium range parameters characterizing the spectrum of wind-generated waves are derived and compared with field observations. Fluctuations in the actual number of steep wavelet events which occur within a finite surface area are shown to be an important factor of the radar backscatter if the surface area, i.e., the resolution cell, is much smaller than 1 sq km. The inner scale of the equilibrium range caused by energy dissipation by breaking waves is considered to be a major factor in determining the surface's statistical geometry and, hence, its microwave returns for all satellite sensors.

Glazman, Roman E.↗

Conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models

A parameterization of land surfaces based on a statistical-dynamical approach is presented. With this approach, the most important characteristics of the soil-plant-atmosphere system that affect the partition of energy (e.g., plant stomatal conductance, soil humidity, and surface roughness) are represented by a pdf rather than by a single 'representative' value. A primary simplified version of this parameterization is used to estimate the land-surface energy fluxes that are produced at the grid scale by various distributions of stomatal conductance under a broad range of environmental conditions. To demonstrate the approach's potential, results are compared with the same fluxes calculated with a big leaf model using the mean stomatal conductance that corresponds to the distributions. Large absolute and relative differences are obtained between the two schemes for many combinations of stomatal conductance pdfs and environmental conditions.

Avissar, Roni↗