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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Assessing Disparities of Dengue Virus Transmission Risk across the US-Mexican Border Using a Climate Driven Vector-Epidemiological Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Although transmission regularly occurs along the border region in Mexico, dengue virus transmission in bordering Arizona has not occurred. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input and Daymet for temperature and supplemental precipitation input, we modeled dengue transmission along a US‐Mexico transect using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Model runs were performed for 5 cities in Sonora, Mexico and southern Arizona. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. For cities with reported dengue case data, the top model simulations that best reproduced dengue case numbers were retained and their parameter values were extracted for comparison. These parameter values were used to run simulations in areas where dengue virus transmission does not occur or where dengue fever case data was unavailable. Additional model runs were performed to reveal how changes in climate or parameter values could alter transmission risk along the transect. The relative influence of climate variability and model parameters on dengue virus transmission is assessed to help public health workers prepare location specific infection prevention strategies.

Morin, Cory↗

Transfer Learning of High-Fidelity Opacity Spectra in Autoencoders and Surrogate Models

Simulations of high energy density physics are expensive, largely in part for the need to produce nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium opacities. High-fidelity spectra may reveal new physics in the simulations not seen with low-fidelity spectra, but the cost of these simulations also scales with the level of fidelity of the opacities being used. Neural networks are capable of reproducing these spectra, but neural networks need data to train them, which limits the level of fidelity of the training data. Here this article demonstrates that it is possible to reproduce high-fidelity spectra with median errors in the realm of 3%–4% using as few as 50 samples of high-fidelity Krypton data by performing transfer learning on a neural network trained on many times more low-fidelity data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A mathematical model for simulating noise suppression of lined ejectors

A mathematical model containing the essential features embodied in the noise suppression of lined ejectors is presented. Although some simplification of the physics is necessary to render the model mathematically tractable, the current model is the most versatile and technologically advanced at the current time. A system of linearized equations and the boundary conditions governing the sound field are derived starting from the equations of fluid dynamics. A nonreflecting boundary condition is developed. In view of the complex nature of the equations, a parametric study requires the use of numerical techniques and modern computers. A finite element algorithm that solves the differential equations coupled with the boundary condition is then introduced. The numerical method results in a matrix equation with several hundred thousand degrees of freedom that is solved efficiently on a supercomputer. The model is validated by comparing results either with exact solutions or with approximate solutions from other works. In each case, excellent correlations are obtained. The usefulness of the model as an optimization tool and the importance of variable impedance liners as a mechanism for achieving broadband suppression within a lined ejector are demonstrated.

Watson, Willie R.↗

Simulation and Modeling of the Elliptic Streamline Flow

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) was used to study homogeneous turbulence with a mean flow having elliptic streamlines. This flow combines the effects of rotation and strain on the turbulence. There are many important reasons for studying the elliptic streamline flow. This flow contains the effects of both rotation and strain and is therefore similar to the mean flow in a vortex strained in the plane perpendicular to its axis. Such flows provide insight into the fundamental vortical interactions within turbulence. A strained vortex also occurs in airplane wakes, in which each wingtip vortex induces a strain field on the other. The strain field can affect the stability of these vortices and thereby their turbulent structure downstream. The ability to understand and predict the turbulent structure of the vortices is important to the wake hazard problem which is of major concern for the safety of commercial aircraft.

Blaisdell, Gregory A.↗

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

Fields, James M.↗

Terry Turbopump Expanded Operating Band Modeling and Simulation Efforts in Fiscal Year 2021 Extended Period of Performance (Final Report)

This report documents the progress made under the Terry Turbine Expanded Operating Band (TTEXOB) program's modeling and simulation (MODSIM) initiative at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL ). It describes the US Federal Fiscal Year 2021 (FY21) extended period-of-performance MODSIM work completed since the closure of FY20 with due reference to the Texas A&M University (TAMU) hybrid milestone 5/6 experimental program. This work, which falls under Milestone 7 of the program, provides a counterpart to the various experiments. The overall TTEXOB program and its milestone-based approach are described in the program's Summary Plan. Details of the individual milestone test plans can be found in the corresponding detailed test plan, e.g. the Milestone 3 and 4 Detailed Test Plan. SNL MODISM is conducted alongside experiments performed at TAMU, and SNL technical staff regularly consults with TAMU on the experimental program. In FY21, MELCOR code models and capabilities were exercised in two different contexts: experimental comparisons to the TAMU ZS-1 and GS-2, and stand-alone analyses of a station black-out (SBO) scenario in a generic boiling water reactor (BWR). Code to experiment comparisons met with fair success when turbine losses were well characterized as for the ZS-1 turbine. Both deterministic and Bayesian calibration processes were used to find a recommended turbine torque multiplier for ZS-1 type turbines. This process could be repeated for GS-2 type turbines if GS-2 losses were better understood. Stand-alone generic BWR SBO calculations revealed that three different modes of self-regulating turbopump behavior may be observed depending on certain modeling parameters and choices having to do with turbine nozzles. Aspects of this predicted behavior may have been observed in TAMU GS-2 experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Accelerating nuclear fuel development and qualification: Modeling and simulation integrated with separate-effects testing

In this work, an approach to transform and accelerate nuclear fuel development and qualification is outlined. The approach exploits advanced modeling and simulation at the outset to inform constituent and system selection and to enable integral fuel performance analyses. Analyses using these tools identify and prioritize the most important fuel performance parameters and phenomena for subsequent targeted characterization with separate-effects tests. Separate-effects testing spans out-of-pile and in-pile tests and is meant to iterate with and inform engineering-scale integral fuel performance analyses throughout the development process. Exercising this cycle in an agile fashion will increase confidence in the integral fuel performance predictions while reducing uncertainties. This process sets the stage for executing a much more limited set of well-defined integral irradiation tests designed to validate engineering-scale fuel performance codes and to confirm the performance and safety of the fuel system under prototypic conditions. This approach will reduce the time for development and qualification of a new fuel system, and it will also reduce associated costs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

An application of the Multi-Purpose System Simulation /MPSS/ model to the Monitor and Control Display System /MACDS/ at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration /NASA/ Goddard Space Flight Center /GSFC/

The Multi-Purpose System Simulator (MPSS) model was used to investigate the current and projected performance of the Monitor and Control Display System (MACDS) at the Goddard Space Flight Center in processing and displaying launch data adequately. MACDS consists of two interconnected mini-computers with associated terminal input and display output equipment and a disk-stored data base. Three configurations of MACDS were evaluated via MPSS and their performances ascertained. First, the current version of MACDS was found inadequate to handle projected launch data loads because of unacceptable data backlogging. Second, the current MACDS hardware with enhanced software was capable of handling two times the anticipated data loads. Third, an up-graded hardware ensemble combined with the enhanced software was capable of handling four times the anticipated data loads.

Mill, F. W.↗

US Clean Energy Sector and the Opportunity for Modeling and Simulation

The following paper sets forth the current understanding of the US clean energy demand and opportunity. As clean energy systems come online and technology is developed, modeling and simulation of these complex energy programs provides an untapped business opportunity. The US Department of Defense provides a great venue for developing new technology in the energy sector because it is demanding lower fuel costs, more energy efficiencies in its buildings and bases, and overall improvements in its carbon footprint. These issues coupled with the security issues faced by foreign dependence on oil will soon bring more clean energy innovations to the forefront (lighter batteries for soldiers, alternative fuel for jets, energy storage systems for ships, etc).

Inge, Carole Cameron↗

Modeling and Simulation of Advanced Manufacturing Techniques using MOOSE and MALAMUTE

Advanced manufacturing techniques offer increased geometry complexity, energy and material usage efficiency improvements, and an expanded palette of materials as compared to conventional manufacturing approaches. Advanced-manufacturing-produced parts can experience wide variations in the final microstructure, and these microstructure variations significantly impact the parts’ performance. In this chapter, we present recent code developments within Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) and in the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE). Here we demonstrate applying these modeling and simulation codes to two advanced manufacturing process types: advanced sintering techniques and laser-based additive manufacturing techniques. The multiphysics and multiscale capabilities of these codes enable prediction of the microstructure evolution resulting from variations in the Advanced manufacturing process parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The transient performance of a two-phase fluid reservoir

Thermal control of future large, high power spacecraft will require a two-phase fluid central bus. The two-phase fluid reservoir is a critical component in the two-phase fluid bus. It both controls the saturation temperature and provides a space for volumetric changes. A dynamic reservoir simulation model does not currently exist, but it is needed to expedite efforts and reduce risk. During 1989 an effort was made to develop a simulation model of the transient performance of a two-phase fluid reservoir. As a beginning, a preliminary model was developed. It is based upon component mathematical models in lumped parametric form and build upon five component mathematical models for calculating dynamic responses of two-phase fluid reservoirs, primary feedback elements, controller commands, heater actuators, and reservoir heaters. As much as possible, the model took advantage of the available SINDA'85/FLUINT thermal/fluid integrator. Additional calculation logic and computer subroutines were developed to complete implementation of the model. The model is capable of simulating dynamic response of an equilibrium two-phase fluid reservoir. Modification of the model to include the liquid/vapor nonequilibrium is required for applications of the model to simulate performance of reservoir in which the liquid and vapor phases of the reservoir fluid are not in equilibrium. In addition, the model in its present form, needs to be refined in several respects. More empirical data are needed to guide the model development. The model may then be used to conduct a full parametric study of two-phase fluid reservoirs. More complexities in two-phaes flow regions in laboratory and flight conditions may have to be considered eventually if empirical data cannot be simulated satisfactorily. System with other components arrangement also need to be simulated if optimization is ever to be attained. The present model does, however, preliminarily demonstrates that such analyses are quite possible and offers a far less expensive method to understand the transient of a two-phase fluid reservoir system than a totally headware approach.

Chi, Joseph↗

Airspace Systems Program: Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation Project

The Airspace Systems Program (ASP) has identified a set of goals based on projections of annual passenger demands. The topics of discussion include: 1) Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation Project (VAMS) Project Description; 2) VAMS Project Management; 3) VAMS Project Schedule; and 4) Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM). This paper is in viewgraph form.

Jacobsen, Robert↗

Cloud Radiative Effects on MJO Development in DYNAMO

Observed Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events are examined with the aid of regional model simulations to understand the role of cloud radiative effects in the MJO development. The importance of this role is demonstrated by the absence of MJO in the model simulations that contain no cloud radiative effects. Comparisons of model simulations with and without the cloud radiative effects and observation help identify the major processes arising from those effects. Those processes develop essentially from heating in the upper-troposphere due to shortwave absorption within anvil clouds in the upper troposphere and the convergence of longwave radiation in the middle-upper troposphere, with a peak at 300-hPa, during deep convection. First, that heating adds extra buoyancy and accelerates the rising motion in the upper troposphere in deep convection. The vertical acceleration in the upper troposphere creates a vacuum effect and demands for more deep convection to develop. Second, in response to that demand and required by mass balance arises the large-scale horizontal and vertical mass, moisture, and energy convergence. It strengthens deep convection and, with the feedback from continuing cloud radiative effect, creates conditions that can perpetuate deep convection and MJO development. That perpetuation does not occur however because those processes arising from the cloud radiative heating in the upper troposphere stabilize the troposphere till it supports no further deep convection. Weakening deep convection reduces cloud radiative effects. The subsequent reduction of the vacuum effect in the upper troposphere diminishes deep convection completing an MJO cycle. These results advance our understanding of the development of the MJO in the radiative-convective system over warm waters in the tropics. They show that while the embryo of intraseasonal oscillation may exist in the system its growth/development is largely dependent on cloud radiative effects and feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Perspective of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport: From Qualitative Tracking to Quantitative Characterization

Evidence of aerosol intercontinental transport (ICT) is both widespread and compelling. Model simulations suggest that ICT could significantly affect regional air quality and climate, but the broad inter-model spread of results underscores a need of constraining model simulations with measurements. Satellites have inherent advantages over in situ measurements to characterize aerosol ICT, because of their spatial and temporal coverage. Significant progress in satellite remote sensing of aerosol properties during the Earth Observing System (EOS) era offers opportunity to increase quantitative characterization and estimates of aerosol ICT, beyond the capability of pre-EOS era satellites that could only qualitatively track aerosol plumes. EOS satellites also observe emission strengths and injection heights of some aerosols, aerosol precursors, and aerosol-related gases, which can help characterize aerosol ICT. After an overview of these advances, we review how the current generation of satellite measurements have been used to (1) characterize the evolution of aerosol plumes (e.g., both horizontal and vertical transport, and properties) on an episodic basis, (2) understand the seasonal and inter-annual variations of aerosol ICT and their control factors, (3) estimate the export and import fluxes of aerosols, and (4) evaluate and constrain model simulations. Substantial effort is needed to further explore an integrated approach using measurements from on-orbit satellites (e.g., A-Train synergy) for observational characterization and model constraint of aerosol intercontinental transport and to develop advanced sensors for future missions.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Physics-Based Modeling and Simulation of Self-Reacting Friction Stir Welding Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

A physics-based model was developed to simulate the behavior of material in a self-reacting friction stir welding (SR-FSW) process for the joining of metals. This steady-state model builds upon fundamental computational fluid dynamic (CFD) principles within Ansys Fluent to solve the discretized equations. The effective viscosity is calculated using a viscoplastic model using a Sheppard-Wright formulation of flow stress. Numerous advancements have been made in the incorporated physics including (1) temperature-dependent material properties; (2) locally adaptable flow and thermal boundary conditions; and (3) adapting material properties in nugget in response to microstructural changes. Simulation strategies to accelerate computation and improve numerical stability include adapting the mesh refinement and solver relaxation factors during simulation. The result is a highly robust and computationally efficient model capable of providing the material flow and temperature history across the domain. As material history determines the local microstructure and ultimately weld strength, an accurate and detailed physics-based model has the potential to accelerate SR-FSW process development. The model is highly adaptable to changes in process parameters, tool design, or alloy.

Process Modeling↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Superparameterized E3SM Simulation at High Resolution

Accurately representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is crucial to simulating the energy and water cycles in global climate models. Using a novel MCS identification and tracking algorithm applied to observations and model simulations, we evaluate how well the Energy Exascale Earth System Model simulates MCSs over the central US. Simulations performed by E3SM at 25 km grid spacing with (SP-E3SM) and without (E3SM) superparameterization are compared and evaluated against observations using multiple metrics highlighting important MCS characteristics. Compared to E3SM, SP-E3SM better simulates MCS number and MCS precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, propagation, and the probability distribution of precipitation rate in both spring and summer. The improvement from SP is partly contributed by improvement in simulating the large-scale environments, featuring enhanced atmospheric low-level moisture and larger moisture transport to the central US relative to E3SM. However, SP-E3SM still underestimates MCS precipitation amount, particularly in summer. This underestimation is closely related to the negative bias in MCS precipitation intensity, although the drier environments simulated during summer also contributes to underestimation of MCS frequency. Without SP, the larger bias in MCS precipitation amount is closely related to the negative bias in MCS frequency, while the substantial dry bias in the large-scale environments also contributes to underestimation of MCS intensity. Our results suggest that SP improves MCS simulation by improving modeling of the large-scale environments and convection initiation, which are both major limiting factors in E3SM even at 25 km grid spacing where deep convection is represented by a cumulus parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗