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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

PATOKA: Simulating Electromagnetic Observables of Black Hole Accretion

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has released analyses of reconstructed images of horizon-scale millimeter emission near the supermassive black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy. Parts of the analyses made use of a large library of synthetic black hole images and spectra, which were produced using numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics fluid simulations and polarized ray tracing. In this article, we describe the PATOKA pipeline, which was used to generate the Illinois contribution to the EHT simulation library. We begin by describing the relevant accretion systems and radiative processes. We then describe the details of the three numerical codes we use, iharm , ipole , and igrmonty , paying particular attention to differences between the current generation of the codes and the originally published versions. Finally, we provide a brief overview of simulated data as produced by PATOKA and conclude with a discussion of limitations and future directions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards quantifying the impact of triaxiality on optical signatures of galaxy clusters: weak lensing and galaxy distributions

ABSTRACT We present observational evidence of the impact of triaxiality on radial profiles that extend to 40 Mpc from galaxy cluster centres in optical measurements. We perform a stacked profile analysis from a sample of thousands of nearly relaxed galaxy clusters from public data releases of the Dark Energy Survey and the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey. Using the central galaxy elliptical orientation angle as a proxy for galaxy cluster orientation, we measure cluster weak lensing and excess galaxy density axis-aligned profiles, extracted along the central galaxy’s major or minor axes on the plane of the sky. Our measurements show a ≳ 2σ–3σ difference per radial bin between the normalized axis-aligned profiles. The profile difference between each axis-aligned profile and the azimuthally averaged profile ($\sim \pm 10\,\rm per\ cent-20~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ along major/minor axis) appears inside the clusters (∼0.4 Mpc) and extends to the large-scale structure regime (∼10–20 Mpc). The magnitude of the difference appears to be relatively insensitive to cluster richness and redshift, and extends further out in the weak lensing surface mass density than in the galaxy overdensity. Looking forward, this measurement can easily be applied to other observational or simulation data sets and can inform the systematics in cluster mass modelling related to triaxiality. We expect imminent upcoming wide-area deep surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, to improve our quantification of optical signatures of cluster triaxiality.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Accurate assessment of land–atmosphere coupling in climate models requires high-frequency data output

Land–atmosphere (L–A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centered climate anomalies. Local L–A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L–A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth and development and the entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team in the Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) project is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional Earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L–A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land–atmosphere interactions span timescales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability in behavioral regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here, we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyze, and better understand L–A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behavior. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant timescales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L–A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate Assessment of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in Climate Models Requires High Frequency Data Output

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions are important for understanding convective processes, climate feedbacks, the development and perpetuation of droughts, heatwaves, pluvials, and other land-centred climate anomalies. Local L-A coupling (LoCo) metrics capture relevant L-A processes, highlighting the impact of soil and vegetation states on surface flux partitioning, and the impact of surface fluxes on boundary layer (BL) growth, development, and entrainment of air above the BL. A primary goal of the Climate Process Team on Coupling Land and Atmospheric Subgrid Parameterizations (CLASP) is parameterizing and characterizing the impact of subgrid heterogeneity in global and regional earth system models (ESMs) to improve the connection between land and atmospheric states and processes. A critical step in achieving that aim is the incorporation of L-A metrics, especially LoCo metrics, into climate model diagnostic process streams. However, because land-atmosphere interactions span time scales of minutes (e.g., turbulent fluxes), hours (e.g., BL growth and decay), days (e.g., soil moisture memory), and seasons (e.g., variability of behavioural regimes between soil moisture and latent heat flux), with multiple processes of interest happening in different geographic regions at different times of year, there is not a single metric that captures all the modes, means, and methods of interaction between the land and the atmosphere. And while monthly means of most of the LoCo-relevant variables are routinely saved from ESM simulations, data storage constraints typically preclude routine archival of the hourly data that would enable the calculation of all LoCo metrics. Here we outline a reasonable data request that would allow for adequate characterization of sub-daily coupling processes between the land and the atmosphere, preserving enough sub-daily output to describe, analyse, and better understand L-A coupling in modern climate models. A secondary request involves embedding calculations within the models to determine mean properties in and above the BL to further improve characterization of model behaviour. Higher-frequency model output will (i) allow for more direct comparison with observational field campaigns on process-relevant time scales, (ii) enable demonstration of inter-model spread in L-A coupling processes, and (iii) aid in targeted identification of sources of deficiencies and opportunities for improvement of the models.

Kirsten L. Findell↗

Unveiling the internal structure of the Hercules supercluster

ABSTRACT We have investigated the structure of the Hercules supercluster (SCL160) based on data originally extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-DR7). We have traced the mass distribution in the field through the numerical density, weighted by the r′ luminosity of the galaxies, and classified objects based on their spatial position and redshift. This has allowed us to address not only the kinematics of the supercluster as a whole, but also the internal kinematics of each cluster, which had not been explored further before. We have confirmed that the Hercules supercluster is composed of the galaxy clusters A2147, A2151, and A2152. A2151 consists of five subclusters, A2147 two, and A2152 at least two. They form the heart of the Hercules supercluster. We also have found two other gravitationally bound clusters, therefore increasing the known members of the supercluster. We have estimated a total mass of 2.1 ± 0.2 × 1015 M⊙ for the Hercules supercluster. To determine the dynamical masses in this work, we have resorted to the M200−σ scaling relation and the caustic technique. Comparing both methods with simulated data of bimodal merging clusters, we found that the caustic, as well as the σ-based masses, is biased through the merger age, showing a boost just after pericentric passage. This is not in line with the principle of the caustic method, which affirms it does not depend on the cluster dynamical state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Efficient Methods to Assimilate Satellite Retrievals Based on Information Content: Suboptimal Retrieval Assimilation - Part 2

One of the outstanding problems in data assimilation has been and continues to be how best to utilize satellite data while balancing the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost. A number of weather prediction centers have recently achieved remarkable success in improving their forecast skill by changing the method by which satellite data are assimilated into the forecast model from the traditional approach of assimilating retrievals to the direct assimilation of radiances in a variational framework. The operational implementation of such a substantial change in methodology involves a great number of technical details, e.g., pertaining to quality control procedures, systematic error correction techniques, and tuning of the statistical parameters in the analysis algorithm. Although there are clear theoretical advantages to the direct radiance assimilation approach, it is not obvious at all to what extent the improvements that have been obtained so far can be attributed to the change in methodology, or to various technical aspects of the implementation. The issue is of interest because retrieval assimilation retains many practical and logistical advantages which may become even more significant in the near future when increasingly high-volume data sources become available. The central question we address here is: how much improvement can we expect from assimilating radiances rather than retrievals, all other things being equal? We compare the two approaches in a simplified one-dimensional theoretical framework, in which problems related to quality control and systematic error correction are conveniently absent. By assuming a perfect radiative transfer model and perfect knowledge of radiance and background error covariances, we are able to formulate a nonlinear local error analysis for each assimilation method. Direct radiance assimilation is optimal in this idealized context, while the traditional method of assimilating retrievals is suboptimal because it ignores the cross-covariances between background errors and retrieval errors. We show that interactive retrieval assimilation (where the same background used for assimilation is also used in the retrieval step) is equivalent to direct assimilation of radiances with suboptimal analysis weights. We illustrate and extend these theoretical arguments with several one-dimensional assimilation experiments, where we estimate vertical atmospheric profiles using simulated data from both the High-resolution InfraRed Sounder 2 (HIRS2) and the future Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS).

Joiner, J.↗

Role of self-generated magnetic fields in the inertial fusion ignition threshold

Magnetic fields spontaneously grow at unstable interfaces around hot-spot asymmetries during inertial confinement fusion implosions. Although difficult to measure, theoretical considerations and numerical simulations predict field strengths exceeding 5 kT in current National Ignition Facility experiments. Magnetic confinement of electrons then reduces the rate of hot-spot heat loss by >5%. We demonstrate this via magnetic post-processing of two-dimensional xRAGE hydrodynamic simulation data at bang time. We then derive a model for the self-magnetization, finding that it varies with the square of the hot-spot temperature and inversely with the areal density. The self-magnetized Lawson analysis then gives a slightly reduced ignition threshold. Time-dependent hot-spot energy balance models corroborate this finding, with the magnetic field quadrupling the fusion yield for near-threshold parameters. The inclusion of magnetized multi-dimensional fluid instabilities could further alter the ignition threshold and will be the subject of future work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigation of compression of indirect-drive targets under conditions of the NIF facility using one-dimensional modelling

The indirect compression dynamics of targets containing capsules with ablators of a plastic, high-density carbon and beryllium is simulated in the framework of a one-dimensional model based on the 1D RADIAN code. Experiments with such targets are performed on the NIF facility in the Livermore Laboratory (USA) in 2014 – 2018. The 1D simulation data are consistent with the results of experiments and calculations made at this Laboratory. The effect of the hard part of hohlraum radiation on capsule compression parameters is confirmed. We demonstrate the feasibility of eliminating this influence not only by selecting the hohlraum material but also by introducing admixtures into the capsule that absorb this radiation. It is shown how varying the amount of admixture in the capsule ablator varies the spectrum of the radiation that heats the DT fuel. (interaction of laser radiation with matter. laser plasma)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of probability density function descriptions for three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing

Results from simulations of a three-component Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) mixing problem are presented. These simulations are conducted in heavy–light–heavy and heavy–intermediate–light configurations, and each of these configurations are further considered in high- and low-Reynolds-number regimes. This results in RT-unstable flow with one or both interfaces initially unstable, permitting the influence of problem configuration on the statistical description of three-component RT-driven mixing to be considered. Mass fraction covariances are observed to undergo a sign change through the mixing layer in all four configurations considered. This appears to be unique to the multi-component case and represents another way in which multi-component RT mixing differs from the two-component case. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of joint and marginal probability density function (PDF) descriptions of species concentration are made. Three-, five-, and six-parameter model PDFs are compared against simulation data to assess how accurately they describe the mixing, and it is found that three-component mixing requires at least a five-parameter model PDF to accurately describe the mixing. Notably, the marginal distributions of three-component mixing do not appear to conform to a beta distribution, representing a departure from the classical two-component RT case. In conclusion, statistical neutrality also appears to influence the optimal choice of model PDF, which is found to be a function of problem configuration.

Large-eddy simulation↗

Self-radiography of imploded shells on OMEGA based on additive-free multi-monochromatic continuum spectral analysis

Radiographs of pure-DT cryogenic imploding shells provide critical validation of progress toward ignition-scalable performance of inertial confinement fusion implosions. Cryogenic implosions on the OMEGA Laser System can be self-radiographed by their own core spectral emission near ≈2 keV. Utilizing the distinct spectral dependences of continuum emissivity and opacity, the projected optical-thickness distribution of imploded shells, i.e., the shell radiograph, can be distinguished from the structure of the core emission distribution in images.Importantly, this can be done without relying on spectral additives (shell dopants), as in previous applications of implosion self-radiography. Furthermore, demonstrations with simulated data show that this technique is remarkably well-suited to cryogenic implosions and can also be applied to self-radiography of imploded room-temperature CH shells at higher spectral energy (hv ≈ 3–5 keV) based on the very similar continuum spectrum of carbon. Experimental demonstration of additive-free self-radiography with warm CH shell implosions on OMEGA will provide an important proof of principle for future applications to cryogenic DT implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Leveraging Data Intensive Computing to Support Automated Event Services

A large portion of Earth Science investigations is phenomenon- or event-based, such as the studies of Rossby waves, mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclones. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena, e.g. tropical cyclones, comprehensive records are absent for the occurrences or events of these phenomena. Phenomenon-based studies therefore often focus on a few prominent cases while the lesser ones are overlooked. Without an automated means to gather the events, comprehensive investigation of a phenomenon is at least time-consuming if not impossible. An Earth Science event (ES event) is defined here as an episode of an Earth Science phenomenon. A cumulus cloud, a thunderstorm shower, a rogue wave, a tornado, an earthquake, a tsunami, a hurricane, or an EI Nino, is each an episode of a named ES phenomenon," and, from the small and insignificant to the large and potent, all are examples of ES events. An ES event has a finite duration and an associated geolocation as a function of time; its therefore an entity in four-dimensional . (4D) spatiotemporal space. The interests of Earth scientists typically rivet on Earth Science phenomena with potential to cause massive economic disruption or loss of life, but broader scientific curiosity also drives the study of phenomena that pose no immediate danger. We generally gain understanding of a given phenomenon by observing and studying individual events - usually beginning by identifying the occurrences of these events. Once representative events are identified or found, we must locate associated observed or simulated data prior to commencing analysis and concerted studies of the phenomenon. Knowledge concerning the phenomenon can accumulate only after analysis has started. However, except for a few high-impact phenomena. such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes, finding events and locating associated data currently may take a prohibitive amount of time and effort on the part of an individual investigator. And even for these high-impact phenomena, the availability of comprehensive records is still only a recent development. A major reason for the lack of comprehensive ,records for the majority of the ES phenomena is the perception that they do not pose immediate and/or severe threat to life and property and are thus not consistently tracked. monitored, and catalogued. Many phenomena even lack commonly accepted criteria for definitions. However. the lack of comprehensive records is also due to the increasingly prohibitive volume of observations and model data that must be examined. NASA Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) alone archives several petabytes (PB) of satellite remote sensing data and steadily increases. All of these factors contribute to the difficulty of methodically identifying events corresponding to a given phenomenon and significantly impede systematic investigations. In the following we present a couple motivating scenarios, demonstrating the issues faced by Earth scientists studying ES phenomena.

Clune, Thomas L.↗

Use of wind data in global modelling

The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing operational global analyses every 6 hours and operational global forecasts every day from the 12Z analysis. How the wind data are used in the ECMWF golbal analysis is described. For each current wind observing system, its ability to provide initial conditions for the forecast model is discussed as well as its weaknesses. An assessment of the impact of each individual system on the quality of the analysis and the forecast is given each time it is possible. Sometimes the deficiencies which are pointed out are related not only to the observing system itself but also to the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis scheme; then some improvements are generally possible through ad hoc modifications of the analysis scheme and especially tunings of the structure functions. Examples are given. The future observing network over the North Atlantic is examined. Several countries, coordinated by WMO, are working to set up an 'Operational WWW System Evaluation' (OWSE), in order to evaluate the operational aspects of the deployment of new systems (ASDAR, ASAP). Most of the new systems are expected to be deployed before January 1987, and in order to make the best use of the available resources during the deployment phase, some network studies are carried out at the present time, by using simulated data for ASDAR and ASAP systems. They are summarized.

Pailleux, J.↗

The Information Length Concept Applied to Plasma Turbulence

A methodology to study statistical properties of anomalous transport in fusion plasma is investigated. Three time traces generated by the full-f gyrokinetic code GKNET are analyzed for this purpose. The time traces consist of heat flux as a function of the radial position, which is studied in a novel manner using statistical methods. The simulation data exhibit transport processes with both medium and long correlation length along the radius. A typical example of a phenomenon with long correlation length is avalanches. In order to investigate the evolution of the turbulent state, two basic configurations are studied, one flux-driven and one gradient-driven with decaying turbulence. The information length concept in tandem with Boltzmann–Gibbs and Tsallis entropy is used in the investigation. It is found that the dynamical states in both flux-driven and gradient-driven cases are surprisingly similar, but the Tsallis entropy reveals differences between them. This indicates that the types of probability distribution function are nevertheless quite different since the higher moments are significantly different.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Combined Machine Learning and Molecular Dynamics Reveal Two States of Hydration of a Single Functional Group of Cationic Polymeric Brushes

The state of hydration of a macromolecular system regulates a plethora of different properties of such a system. In this article, we develop a novel machine learning (ML) approach, based on the unsupervised clustering algorithm, for probing the hydration behavior of the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional group of the PMETAC [Poly(2-(methacryloyloxy)ethyl trimethylammonium chloride] polyelectrolyte (PE) brush system. The PE brushes and the brush-supported water molecules and counterions (chloride ions) are first described using all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The simulation data is subsequently used in our ML framework to identify that (1) the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional groups of the PMETAC brushes have two distinct hydration states with one state (state 1) being characterized by less structured water molecules and the other state (state 2) being characterized by more structured water molecules and (2) an enhancement in the brush grafting density leads to the progressive dissapparenace of state 2. An increase in the grafting density increases the number of chloride counterions in a given volume around the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + functional group and increases the number of shared water molecules between the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + and Cl - . The chloride counterions are associated with a hydration layer with much less structured water molecules. Therefore, with an increase in the grafting density, an increase in the percentage of shared water molecules leads to the prevalence of the hydration state [of the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + moiety] with less structured water molecules. Finally, we explain how the present findings are commensurate with two key previous related results, namely a significantly large chloride ion mobility inside the PMETAC brush layer and the {N(CH 3 ) 3 } + -Cl - average distance remaining independent of the PMETAC brush grafting density. Furthermore, we anticipate that the combined ML-MD-simulation approach proposed in this study can be adapted to probe other soft matter systems to reveal new insights of the underlying mechanisms of emergent phenomenon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗