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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Verification of Atmospheric Signals Associated with Major Seismicity by Space and Terrestrial Observations

Observations from the last twenty years suggest the existence of electromagnetic (EM) phenomena during or preceding some earthquakes [Haykawa et a!, 2004; Pulinets at al, 1999,2004, 2006, Ouzounov et all 2007 and Liu et all 20041. Both our previous studies [Pulinets at al, 2005, 2006, Ouzounov et al, 2006, 20071 and the latest review by the Earthquake Remote Precursor Sensing panel [ERPS; 2003- 20051; have shown that there were precursory atmospheric TIR signals observed on the ground and in space associated with several recent earthquakes. [Tramutoli at al, 2005, 2006, Cervone et al, 2006, Ouzounov et all 2004,2006JT.o study these signals, we applied both multi parameter statistical analysis and data mining methods that require systematic measurements from an Integrated Sensor Web of observations of several physical and environmental parameters. These include long wave earth infra-red radiation, ionospheric electrical and magnetic parameters, temperature and humidity of the boundary layer, seismicity and may be associated with major earthquakes. Our goal is to verify the earthquake atmospheric correlation in two cases: (i) backward analysis - 2000-2008 hindcast monitoring of multi atmospheric parameters over the Kamchatka region, Russia ; and (ii) forward real-time alert analysis over different seismo-tectonic regions for California, Turkey, Taiwan and Japan. Our latest results, from several post-earthquake independent analyses of more then 100 major earthquakes, show that joint satellite and some ground measurements, using an integrated web, could provide a capability for observing pre-earthquake atmospheric signals by combining the information from multiple sensors into a common framework. Using our methodology, we evaluated and compared the observed signals preceding the latest M7.9 Sichuan earthquake (0511212008), M8.0 earthquake in Peru (0811512007), M7.6 Kashmir earthquake (1010812005) and M9.0 Sumatra earthquake (1212812004). We found evidence of the systematic appearance of both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of the major events during the period of our analysis 2001 -2008.

Taylor, Patrick↗

The Complicated Link Between Material Properties and Microfracture Density for an Underground Explosion in Granite

Geophysical techniques are often implemented as quick and inexpensive ways to locate and characterize fractures in the subsurface, which is important for a number of geoscience fields. Seismic velocities are the most widely used proxies for identification of fractures, but the correlation is not always well-defined. In this study we present material property data: unconfined compressive strength (UCS), bulk density (ρ), Young's modulus (E), Poisson's ratio (ν), P wave velocity (V p ), and S wave velocity (V s ), in conjunction with microfracture densities measured on samples of granite collected before and after underground chemical explosions. Results indicate the relationship between fractures and material properties is complex, even in this single-lithology environment. We interpret that this complexity arises from varying fracture mechanisms (e.g. dilation-inducing fractures vs compression-inducing fractures) in different parts of the core, due to differences in stress conditions. Additional complexity may result from chemical interactions between the fresh fractures and the fluids in the area. Water content appears to have a significant, if not dominant, role in the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of the samples. We suggest caution when using elastic property measurements as a proxy for fracturing in areas of explosion-induced damage, or in other areas where a variety of mechanisms induce fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Safety Basis Compliant Flexible Operations [Capstone Project]

Compliant nuclear operations must be weighed against the radiological risk to the worker, public, and the environment. This project set out to look at one facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) and compare the risk with the operational restrictions associated with the Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs). The hope was to identify controls that could be reduced or simplified while maintaining compliance with 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management. This would result in increasing facility operational flexibility and efficiency. Controls were identified to be simplified or eliminated based on risk. This identification was initially envisioned from the perspective of reanalysis of the accident and hazard analysis consequences. Additionally, it was envisioned that fire testing could show that the consequences of a fire are not as dramatic as analyzed. Specific facility controls were identified that cause operational inefficiencies. Based on data collection, two controls were identified for further evaluation. The first control was combustible loading within the waste storage buildings, and the second control is related to the seismic power cutoff switch. In evaluating the combustible loading control, the thought is that the fire suppression system (FSS) provides adequate protection and the combustible loading controls do not need elevation to a TSR control. The FSS, along with the Fire Protection Program, would provide protection to prevent a fire from impacting large amounts of stored waste material. The seismic switch was more of a challenge. When reviewing the facility operation, it was determined that the facility does not operate anywhere near the established material-at-risk (MAR – radioactive material) limits. By adjusting these limits, a reduced consequence could be achieved and hence, a significant risk reduction achieved. A new operating mode would be used to achieve this reduction. A reduced MAR limit was successfully used as a test case for snow removal during this project. This project expands on that trial case as related to combustible loading and the seismic power cutoff switch TSRs. This will increase the efficiency of operations with reduced TSR controls while reducing overall facility risk. This is a win-win situation for Triad National Security, LLC (Triad) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Due to schedule and budgetary constraints, not all envisioned work scope was accomplished. However, it is maintained in this report for future efforts.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Planetary seismological studies

Seismic experiments on future Mars exploration missions, and the instrumentation required for their performances are reported. Advances in microcomputer techniques of which have made feasible the processing of data prior to transmission to earth are discussed along with experience with the Viking hardware and software as related to future experiments. Sensor techniques are briefly mentioned.

Source record↗

Absorption band Q model for the Earth

Attenuation in solids and liquids, as measured by the quality factor Q, is typically frequency dependent. In seismology, however, Q is usually assumed to be independent of frequency. Body wave, surface wave, and normal mode data are used to place constraints on the frequency dependence of Q in the mantle. Specific features of the absorption band model are: low-Q in the seismic band at both the top and the base of the mantle, low-Q for long-period body waves in the outer core, an inner core Q sub s that increases with period, and low Q sub p/Q sub s at short periods in the middle mantle.

Anderson, D. L.↗

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate motions and regional deformation near plate boundaries

The focus of the research was in two broad areas during the most recent 6 month period: the nature and dynamics of time-dependent deformation along major seismic zones, including the influence of irregularities in fault geometry on the earthquake cycles, and the processes contributing to the state of stress and rates of strain in plate interior regions. The principal findings of the research to date are described.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

Simplex GPS and InSAR Inversion Software

Changes in the shape of the Earth's surface can be routinely measured with precisions better than centimeters. Processes below the surface often drive these changes and as a result, investigators require models with inversion methods to characterize the sources. Simplex inverts any combination of GPS (global positioning system), UAVSAR (uninhabited aerial vehicle synthetic aperture radar), and InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) data simultaneously for elastic response from fault and fluid motions. It can be used to solve for multiple faults and parameters, all of which can be specified or allowed to vary. The software can be used to study long-term tectonic motions and the faults responsible for those motions, or can be used to invert for co-seismic slip from earthquakes. Solutions involving estimation of fault motion and changes in fluid reservoirs such as magma or water are possible. Any arbitrary number of faults or parameters can be considered. Simplex specifically solves for any of location, geometry, fault slip, and expansion/contraction of a single or multiple faults. It inverts GPS and InSAR data for elastic dislocations in a half-space. Slip parameters include strike slip, dip slip, and tensile dislocations. It includes a map interface for both setting up the models and viewing the results. Results, including faults, and observed, computed, and residual displacements, are output in text format, a map interface, and can be exported to KML. The software interfaces with the QuakeTables database allowing a user to select existing fault parameters or data. Simplex can be accessed through the QuakeSim portal graphical user interface or run from a UNIX command line.

Donnellan, Andrea↗

GPS Monitoring of Surface Change During and Following the Fortuitous Occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers Earthquake in our Network

Accomplishments: (1) Continues GPS monitoring of surface change during and following the fortuitous occurrence of the M(sub w) = 7.3 Landers earthquake in our network, in order to characterize earthquake dynamics and accelerated activity of related faults as far as 100's of kilometers along strike. (2) Integrates the geodetic constraints into consistent kinematic descriptions of the deformation field that can in turn be used to characterize the processes that drive geodynamics, including seismic cycle dynamics. In 1991, we installed and occupied a high precision GPS geodetic network to measure transform-related deformation that is partitioned from the Pacific - North America plate boundary northeastward through the Mojave Desert, via the Eastern California shear zone to the Walker Lane. The onset of the M(sub w) = 7.3 June 28, 1992, Landers, California, earthquake sequence within this network poses unique opportunities for continued monitoring of regional surface deformation related to the culmination of a major seismic cycle, characterization of the dynamic behavior of continental lithosphere during the seismic sequence, and post-seismic transient deformation. During the last year, we have reprocessed all three previous epochs for which JPL fiducial free point positioning products available and are queued for the remaining needed products, completed two field campaigns monitoring approx. 20 sites (October 1995 and September 1996), begun modeling by development of a finite element mesh based on network station locations, and developed manuscripts dealing with both the Landers-related transient deformation at the latitude of Lone Pine and the velocity field of the whole experiment. We are currently deploying a 1997 observation campaign (June 1997). We use GPS geodetic studies to characterize deformation in the Mojave Desert region and related structural domains to the north, and geophysical modeling of lithospheric behavior. The modeling is constrained by our existing and continued GPS measurements, which will provide much needed data on far-field strain accumulation across the region and on the deformational response of continental lithosphere during and following a large earthquake, forming the basis for kinematic and dynamic modeling of secular and seismic-cycle deformation. GPS geodesy affords both regional coverage and high precision that uniquely bear on these problems.

Miller, M. Meghan↗

Seismic Ambient Noise Analyses Reveal Changing Temperature and Water Signals to 10s of Meters Depth in the Critical Zone

The critical zone sustains terrestrial life, but we have few tools to explore it efficiently beyond the first few meters of the subsurface. Using analyses of high-frequency ambient seismic noise from densely spaced seismometers deployed in the forested Shale Hills subcatchment of the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO), we show that temporal changes in seismic velocities at depths from ~1 m to tens of m can be detected. Furthermore, these changes are driven by variations at the land surface. The Moving-Window Cross-Spectral (MWCS) method was employed to measure seismic-velocity changes in coda waves at hourly resolution in 10 different frequency bands. We observed a diurnal signal, a seasonal signal, and a meteorological-event-based signal. These signals were compared to time-series measurements of precipitation, well water levels, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, latent heat flux, and air pressure in the heavily instrumented catchment. Most of the velocity changes can be explained by variations in temperature that result in thermoelastic strains that propagate to depth. But some double minima in seismic velocity time-series observed after large rain events were attributed in part to the effects of water infiltration. These results show that high-frequency ambient noise data may in some locations be used to detect changes in the critical zone from ~1 to ~100 m or greater depth with hourly resolution. But interpretation of such data requires multiple environmental data sets to deconvolve the complex interrelationships among thermoelastic and hydrological effects in the subsurface critical zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

WUS256: An Adjoint Waveform Tomography Model of the Crust and Upper Mantle of the Western United States for Improved Waveform Simulations

Abstract We report a new model (WUS256) of radially anisotropic seismic wavespeeds of the crust and upper mantle of the western United States (WUS) obtained from adjoint waveform tomography for the purpose of improving synthetic waveform fits to observed data. WUS256 is based on inversion of over 94,000 waveforms from 72 earthquakes recorded by nearly 3,400 stations. We started with the SPiRaL global model (Simmons et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab277 ) and waveforms in the period band of 50–120 s. We followed a conservative multiscale inversion approach with eight stages and 256 total inversion iterations which enabled monotonic misfit reduction to 20‐s minimum‐period waves. WUS256 relied on time‐frequency (TF) phase misfits and a trust region limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (L‐BFGS) optimization. Hessian‐vector products were used to qualitatively assess model resolution. Results indicate that WUS256 has good coverage of the continental regions to depths of about 150 km and is able to resolve features on lateral scales of about 200 km. We quantify waveform fits by the reduction in TF and normalized amplitude difference misfits between WUS256 and the SPiRaL starting model. WUS256 significantly improves waveform fits with misfit reduction 64% for both inversion and validation data sets compared to the SPiRaL starting model and shows even better fits compared to other models. Waveform fits illustrate that WUS256 reproduces body‐waves, fundamental mode surface waves as well as late arriving dispersed and/or scattered short period surface waves. The improvement in waveform fit indicates that WUS256 can be used to reproduce path effects on regional complete waveforms and moment tensor inversions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Daily and Seasonal Variations of Shallow Seismic Velocities in Southern California From Joint Analysis of H/V Ratios and Autocorrelations of Seismic Waveforms

Establishing a baseline of ongoing secular velocity variations at the subsurface can improve the accuracy of detecting and interpreting short-term velocity changes, and advance the understanding of observed seismic motions and the behavior of subsurface materials. Toward these goals, we develop and apply a deconvolved autocorrelation (DA) method to estimate regional daily and seasonal changes of seismic velocities in southern California. The DA method combines advantages of traditional autocorrelation and Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio, and is used to analyze over 10 years of data recorded by 50 stations. The results indicate widespread daily and seasonal changes of up to 10% and 4%, respectively, in the top tens of meters of the crust. The thickness of the surface layer, distance from the coast, and topographic variations are important factors controlling the amplitudes of the resolved velocity variations. The results suggest that changes of soil moisture and thermoelastic strain are likely dominant factors affecting the daily and seasonal variations, respectively. The developed DA method can improve the accuracy and robustness of estimated changes of subsurface materials at other locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Travel Time emulator

This notebook makes seismic phase travel time predictions using machine learning. There are 3 different machine learning models corresponding to the three regimes: local, regional, and teleseismic. After reading in the test data and splitting into the 3 regimes, we use precomputed scalers to scale the input features used to make the travel time predictions. We then load the machine learning models and use them to predict travel times for test data.

Anderson, Gemma↗

Spacecraft techniques for lunar research.

The most significant findings about the Moon obtained by spacecraft so far, have resulted from measurements of gravity, electromagnetic properties, seismicity, mechanical properties, geologic features, composition, ages, and the lunar environment. A number of major lunar questions remain to be answered. Other properties, measurable with spacecraft, which may provide data critical to answering these questions include geometrical shape, motions, and heat flow. In this paper specific measurements that should provide critical data for each of these questions are identified, with some candidate techniques. Among the suggested techniques that have not yet been used are very long baseline interferometry (Earth-Moon baseline), gravity gradiometry, elemental analysis by neutron interactions, and remotely-controlled on-moon microscopy.

Jaffe, L. D.↗

Rapid Analyses of Sparse Seismoacoustic Data Reveals the Timing and Size of the Accurate Energetic Systems Explosion

On 10 October 2025 an explosion occurred at a facility operated by Accurate Energetic Systems in Humphreys County, Tennessee. The incident resulted in 16 fatalities and created a debris field over several square kilometers. To address remaining questions about explosion timing and size, we collected about 20 seismic and 19 acoustic records of the blast from sensors up to hundreds of kilometers away. We then deployed 10 distinct physics-based, reduced order models (ROMs) that used validated geological structure and atmospheric conditions from the time of the event, along with observations of body- and surface-wave energy, as well as acoustic overpressure and phase duration. Each ROM predicted either timing, yield estimates, or both. We binned these estimates and their uncertainties according to each ROMs’ assumptions about confinement (aboveground, buried fully coupled, and buried partially coupled) and combined these estimates with other forensic data to conclude that the event occurred as a single, aboveground explosion on 10 December 2025 12:47:50.8 ±0.1 s with a yield equivalent to 11.8 [2.3,16.5] tons of Trinitrotoluene. Our estimates align with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives inventory reports of 11–13 tons. This multimethod approach demonstrates the use of remotely observed geophysical data to rapidly aid conventional forensic investigations of accidental explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Compressional wave velocity and effective stress in unsaturated soil: Potential application for monitoring moisture conditions in vadose zone sediments

Compressional seismic (P-wave) velocities were measured experimentally at different water potentials and confining pressure states using a variety of sediments collected from the US Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. P-wave velocity was measured in variably saturated sediments using ultrasonic piezoelectric transducers and water potential was measured with a heat dissipation sensor. We propose a model to relate changes in P-wave velocity to soil stress conditions using an effective stress formulation that includes capillary stress as well as adsorptive stress. We show that compressional wave velocities can be related to water potential and confining stress using a model with five fitted parameters. A single set of parameters provides an excellent fit to data acquired from all of the sediment samples. Under very dry conditions, corresponding to low water potentials, water flow occurs in adsorptive thin films associated with very low unsaturated hydraulic conductivities. The results presented here suggest the utility of seismic methods for establishing low water potential and flow conditions within variably saturated Hanford formation sediments and providing feedback on the performance of mitigation efforts such as soil desiccation and surface infiltration barriers. Seismic methods can provide minimally invasive, three-dimensional information on relevant flow conditions in vadose zone sediments as well as changes that occur over time.

Linneman, Dorothy C.↗