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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Compound Flooding Using River‐Ocean Two‐Way Coupled E3SM Ensemble on Variable‐Resolution Meshes

Abstract Coastal zone compound flooding (CF) can be caused by the interactive fluvial and oceanic processes, particularly when coastal backwater propagates upstream and interacts with high river discharge. The modeling of CF is limited in existing Earth System Models (ESMs) due to coarse mesh resolutions and one‐way coupled river‐ocean components. In this study, we present a novel multi‐scale coupling framework within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), integrating global atmosphere and land with interactively coupled river and ocean models using different meshes with refined resolutions near the coastline. To evaluate this framework, we conducted ensemble simulations of a CF event (Hurricane Irene in 2011) in a Mid‐Atlantic estuary. The results demonstrate that the novel E3SM configuration can reasonably reproduce river discharge and sea surface height variations. The two‐way river‐ocean coupling improves the representation of coastal backwater effects at the terrestrial‐aquatic interface that are caused by the combined actions of tide and storm surge during the CF event, thus providing a valuable modeling tool for better understanding the river‐estuary‐ocean dynamics in extreme events under climate change. Notably, our results show that the most significant CF impacts occur when the highest storm surge generated by a tropical cyclone meets with a moderate river discharge. This study highlights the state‐of‐the‐art advancements developed within E3SM for simulating multi‐scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Traces of electron-phonon coupling in one-dimensional cuprates

Abstract The appearance of certain spectral features in one-dimensional (1D) cuprate materials has been attributed to a strong, extended attractive coupling between electrons. Here, using time-dependent density matrix renormalization group methods on a Hubbard-extended Holstein model, we show that extended electron-phonon ( e–ph ) coupling presents an obvious choice to produce such an attractive interaction that reproduces the observed spectral features and doping dependence seen in angle-resolved photoemission experiments: diminished 3 k F spectral weight, prominent spectral intensity of a holon-folding branch, and the correct holon band width. While extended e–ph coupling does not qualitatively alter the ground state of the 1D system compared to the Hubbard model, it quantitatively enhances the long-range superconducting correlations and suppresses spin correlations. Such an extended e–ph interaction may be an important missing ingredient in describing the physics of the structurally similar two-dimensional high-temperature superconducting layered cuprates, which may tip the balance between intertwined orders in favor of uniform d -wave superconductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Charged-particle multiplicity distributions over a wide pseudorapidity range in p–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

This paper presents the primary charged-particle multiplicity distributions in proton–lead collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The distributions are reported for non-single diffractive collisions in different pseudorapidity ranges. The measurements are performed using the combined information from the Silicon Pixel Detector and the Forward Multiplicity Detector of ALICE. The multiplicity distributions are parametrised with a double negative binomial distribution function which provides satisfactory descriptions of the distributions for all the studied pseudorapidity intervals. The data are compared to models and analyzed quantitatively, evaluating the first four moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis). The shape evolution of the measured multiplicity distributions is studied in terms of KNO variables and it is found that none of the considered models reproduces the measurements. This paper also reports on the average charged-particle multiplicity, normalised by the average number of participating nucleon pairs, as a function of the collision energy. The multiplicity results are then compared to measurements made in proton–proton and nucleus–nucleus collisions across a wide range of collision energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Altermagnetic behavior in OsO2: Parallels with RuO2

This dataset contains input and output files from DFT simulations used to reproduce the electronic and phonon band structures of bulk OsO₂ and RuO₂. The files include data from initial electronic structure and phonon calculations performed with Hubbard-U correction (i.e., Antiferromagnetic, AFM) and without Hubbard-U correction (i.e., Non-magnetic, NM). The electronic structure calculations are provided both with and without spin-orbit coupling (SOC). The computed electronic properties are compared with existing literature, while the calculated phonon density of states (PhDOS) is compared with experimental PhDOS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Representation of Hyporheic Exchange in Models for Reactive Transport in Stream and River Corridors

Efforts to include more detailed representations of biogeochemical processes in basin-scale water quality simulation tools face the challenge of how to tractably represent mass exchange between the flowing channels of streams and rivers and biogeochemical hotspots in the hyporheic zones. Multiscale models that use relatively coarse representations of the channel network with subgrid models for mass exchange and reactions in the hyporheic zone have started to emerge to address that challenge. Two such multiscale models are considered here, one based on a stochastic Lagrangian travel time representation of advective pumping and one on multirate diffusive exchange. The two models are formally equivalent to well-established integrodifferential representations for transport of non-reacting tracers in steady stream flow, which have been very successful in reproducing stream tracer tests. Despite that equivalence, the two models are based on very different model structures and produce significantly different results in reactive transport. In a simple denitrification example, denitrification is two to three times greater for the advection-based model because the multirate diffusive model has direct connections between the stream channel and transient storage zones and an assumption of mixing in the transient storage zones that prevent oxygen levels from dropping to the point where denitrification can progress uninhibited. By contrast, the advection-based model produces distinct redox zonation, allowing for denitrification to proceed uninhibited on part of the hyporheic flowpaths. These results demonstrate that conservative tracer tests alone are inadequate for constraining representation of mass transfer in models for reactive transport in streams and rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Approach to Quality Assurance for Complex Environmental Modeling - 20407

A strong Quality Assurance (QA) program for complex environmental modeling is essential for regulatory and public acceptance and trust, but it does not have to be onerous. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) has developed a strong QA program that improves transparency, traceability, reproducibility, and therefore, defensibility and trust. Neptune's QA program has evolved over the past 27 years, transitioning from an ad hoc QA program, to a program that is currently Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 (NQA-1) compliant, and will soon be NQA-1/DOE approved for DOE EM modeling work. In addition, Neptune is a qualified laboratory assessor and qualified auditor for reference materials, a proficiency testing provider, and fully complies with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) QA program. Neptune's President and CEO, Kelly Black, was recently named the Chairperson of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Technical Committee 69, Application of Statistical Methods. A strong QA program has been developed for Neptune's radiological performance assessment (PA) program. Although pieces of their QA program are currently in development, their current program includes document control using Subversion, issue tracking and work flow tracking using JIRA, and transparency and traceability via a system of 'calc sheets' for documentation of all data analysis and modeling combined with 'check print' documentation of QA checking, and rigorous model testing and configuration control. All work is reviewed by an independent subject matter expert who is not associated with the collection and assembly of information, for an internal peer review. The program is enforced with a handful of Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs), Work Instructions, QA Project Plans (QAPPs), and Quality Management Plans (QMPs) that are updated frequently, with required annual training and acknowledgment. In addition, effective communication of modeling approaches and results to clients and stakeholders are integral to their QA program. Many of their models are built using the GoldSim modeling platform, for which their models are well-known for their level of transparency, documentation, and QA traceability. This level of QA is also applied to their process-level models. Neptune has taken some lessons learned from the extremely rigorous QA program required for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP), and imposed the YMP requirements of complete traceability, transparency, and reproducibility, but avoided the inflexibility of a QA program that likely contributed to the suspect e-mails in 2005 that resulted in loss of trust in the YMP, and in nuclear waste disposal (and nuclear power) in general. There are far too many examples of loss of public trust due to poor QA that could have been easily avoided with a simple and straight-forward QA program combined with stakeholder engagement. The purpose of this paper is to share features of Neptune's Radiological Performance Assessment program QA program, and some of their QA related lessons learned over the past 27 years of QA for complex environmental modeling. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatio–Temporal Machine Learning for Regional to Continental Scale Terrestrial Hydrology

Integrated hydrologic models can simulate coupled surface and subsurface processes but are computationally expensive to run at high resolutions over large domains. Here we develop a novel deep learning model to emulate subsurface flows simulated by the integrated ParFlow–CLM model across the contiguous US. We compare convolutional neural networks like ResNet and UNet run autoregressively against our novel architecture called the Forced SpatioTemporal RNN (FSTR). The FSTR model incorporates separate encoding of initial conditions, static parameters, and meteorological forcings, which are fused in a recurrent loop to produce spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater. We evaluate the model architectures on their ability to reproduce 4D pressure heads, water table depths, and surface soil moisture over the contiguous US at 1 km resolution and daily time steps over the course of a full water year. The FSTR model shows superior performance to the baseline models, producing stable simulations that capture both seasonal and event–scale dynamics across a wide array of hydroclimatic regimes. The emulators provide over 1,000× speedup compared to the original physical model, which will enable new capabilities like uncertainty quantification and data assimilation for integrated hydrologic modeling that were not previously possible. Our results demonstrate the promise of using specialized deep learning architectures like FSTR for emulating complex process–based models without sacrificing fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing the self-ionization of liquid water with ab initio deep potential molecular dynamics

The chemical equilibrium between self-ionized and molecular water dictates the acid–base chemistry in aqueous solutions, yet understanding the microscopic mechanisms of water self-ionization remains experimentally and computationally challenging. Herein, Density Functional Theory (DFT)–based deep neural network (DNN) potentials are combined with enhanced sampling techniques and a global acid–base collective variable to perform extensive atomistic simulations of water self-ionization for model systems of increasing size. The explicit inclusion of long-range electrostatic interactions in the DNN potential is found to be crucial to accurately reproduce the DFT free energy profile of solvated water ion pairs in small (64 and 128 H 2 O) cells. The reversible work to separate the hydroxide and hydronium to a distance S is found to converge for simulation cells containing more than 500 H 2 O, and a distance of ∼ 8 Å is the threshold beyond which the work to further separate the two ions becomes approximately zero. The slow convergence of the potential of mean force with system size is related to a restructuring of water and an increase of the local order around the water ions. Calculation of the dissociation equilibrium constant illustrates the key role of long-range electrostatics and entropic effects in the water autoionization process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photoelectron spectroscopy and computational investigations of the electronic structures and noncovalent interactions of cyclodextrin-closo-dodecaborate anion complexes x-CD·B12X122- (x = a, ß, y; X = H, F)

We report a joint negative ion photoelectron spectroscopy (NIPES) and computational study on the electronic structures and noncovalent interactions of a series of cyclodextrin-closo-dodecaborate dianion complexes, ?-CD·B12X122- (? = a, ß, ?; X = H, F). The measured vertical / adiabatic detachment energies (VDEs / ADEs) are 1.15/0.93, 3.55/3.20, 3.90/3.60, and 3.85/3.60 eV for B12H122- and its a-, ß-, ?-CD complexes, respectively; while the corresponding values are 1.90/1.70, 4.00/3.60, 4.33/3.95, and 4.30/3.85 eV for the X = F case. These results show that the inclusion of B12X122- into the CD cavities greatly increase the electronic stability of the dianions. The effect of electronic stabilization for ß-CD is roughly the same as for ?-CD, both being considerably stronger than that for a-CD. Density functional theory (DFT) based geometry optimization reveals that B12X122- are inserted into CDs increasingly deeper from a-CD to ?-CD. The calculated VDEs and ADEs agree with the experiments well, particularly, reproducing the electron binding energy (EBE) trends. The molecular orbital analyses indicate that the most loosely bound photodetached electrons origin from the guest B12X122- moieties. In addition to a shift of all signals to larger EBE, significant changes in the signal patterns are observed. At low EBE, this is due to the splitting of highly degenerate B12X122- orbitals, while at high EBE, photodetachment from CD oxygens contributes to the new bands. The guest B12X122- and host CD nocovalent, size-specific interaction based on the independent gradient model (IGM) and energy decomposition analysis (EDA), is dominated by electrostatic interactions. The analysis further unravels unambiguiously the existence of dihydrogen bonding and how it affects the total energy that stabilizes the host-guest complexes of CDs·B12H122- compared to the general hydrogen bonding interaction in CDs·B12F122-. This work clearly exhibits strong influences on the electronic structures of dodecaborates upon clustering with CDs, with both size (a-, ß-, ?-) and molecular (X = H or F) specificities, thus providing critical molecular-level information on the cyclodextrin-closo-dodecaborate interactions of interest to medical applications, e.g. Boron neutron capature therapy. The NIPES experiments done at PNNL were supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences and Bioscience (X.-B.W.) and was performed at the EMSL, a national scientific user facility sponsored by DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. H.S. and Z.S. acknowledge the funding support of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.11727810, 61720106009 and 21603074), the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Nos. 19JC1412200), and the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities 111 project (B12024). Z. L. thanks the China Scholarship Council (CSC) for financial support. We acknowledge the ECNU Multifunctional Platform for Innovation (001) and HPC Research Computing Team for providing computational and storage resources. J.W. acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt foundation (Feodor Lynen Fellowship and Rückkehrerstipendium), a Freigeist fellowship of the Volkswagenfoundation and Prof. Vladimir A. Azov for helpful discussions.

Li, Zhipeng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pseudoelastic deformation in Mo-based refractory multi-principal element alloys

Phase diagrams supported by density functional theory methods can be crucial for designing high-entropy alloys that are subset of multi-principal-element alloys. We present phase and property analysis of quinary (MoW) x Zr y (TaTi) 1-x-y refractory high-entropy alloys from combined Calculation of Phase Diagram (CALPHAD) and density-functional theory results, supplemented by molecular dynamics simulations. Both CALPHAD and density-functional theory analysis of phase stability indicates a Mo-W-rich region of this quinary has a stable single-phase body-centered-cubic structure. We report first quinary composition from Mo-W-Ta-Ti-Zr family of alloy with pseudo-elastic behavior, i.e., hysteresis in stress-strain. Our analysis shows that only Mo-W-rich compositions of Mo-W-Ta-Ti-Zr, i.e., Mo+W, show reproducible hysteresis in stress-strain responsible for pseudo-elastic behavior. The (MoW) 85 Zr 7.5 (TaTi) 7.5 was down-selected based on temperature-dependent phase diagram analysis and molecular dynamics simulations predicted elastic behavior that reveals twinning-assisted pseudoelastic behavior. While mostly unexplored in body-centered-cubic crystals, twinning is a fundamental deformation mechanism that competes against dislocation slip in crystalline solids. Furthermore, this alloy shows identical cyclic deformation characteristics during uniaxial < 100 > loading, i.e., the pseudoelasticity is isotropic in loading direction. Additionally, a temperature increase from 77 to 1,500 K enhances the elastic strain recovery in load-unload cycles, offering possibly control to tune the pseudoelastic behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Additive manufacturing and applications of nanomaterial-based sensors

Nanoscale materials possess distinct physical and chemical attributes including size-dependent properties, quantum confinement, high surface-to-volume ratio, and superior catalytic activity. These unique qualities enable sensors with high sensitivity, robustness, and fast time response. As the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) demands increased production of sensors, it also provides an impetus for concentrated nanomaterial-based sensor research. Meanwhile, additive manufacturing (AM) of nanomaterial-based sensors is critical to bridge the gap between one-off, lab-scale fabrication and cost-effective, industrial-scale production with high reproducibility. By applying the design flexibility and cost savings of AM techniques, a new generation of nanomaterial-based sensing platforms can be integrated with IoT devices in the consumer space. Furthermore, emergent research in human-machine interfaces, food safety, and point-of-care diagnostics will be expedited by the development of sensors that can be printed with irregular form factors. In this Review, the relative strengths and weaknesses of printed sensor systems based on zero-, one-, and two-dimensional nanomaterials are discussed. In addition, sensors enabled by printable soft nanomaterials, heterostructures, and nanocomposites are surveyed due to their synergistic advantages for wearable healthcare monitoring and soft robotics. Lastly, a roadmap for the next decade of research on this topic is provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-interval distributions in a digital gamma multi-channel analyzer at extreme input rates

Here, this study explores the relationship between experimentally observed inter-event time-interval distributions (TIDs) and measured dead times for pulses generated by a HPGe gamma detector and processed by a digital spectrometer. The system utilizes a fast and slow channel, pile-up rejector, trapezoid filtering, and flash analog-to-digital converter. The experimentally derived TIDs were compared with theory for validation. The results demonstrate that the theoretical model reliably describes measured TIDs up to 40% dead time. However, significant distortion effects become increasingly pronounced at higher input rates. It appears that the deviation between the measured and calculated time-interval distributions take the shape of higher-order convolutions of the TID, which represent the time difference between counts for more than two successive events. In this work, theoretical functions for the TID are expanded to reproduce measurements up to 90%. This refinement in the interpretation and treatment of the measured TIDs provides improved accuracy and precision in the prediction of the true event rate and measured dead time in the counter. Even though it reflects occasional count loss that is specific to the set-up, it is expected that a similar adjustment may be applicable to other detection systems as well.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plankton energy flows using a global size-structured and trait-based model

Plankton community models are critical tools for understanding the processes that shape marine plankton communities, how plankton communities impact biogeochemical cycles, and the feedbacks between community structure and function. Here, using the flexible Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL), we present the Size-based Plankton ECological TRAits (MARBL-SPECTRA) model, which is designed to represent a diverse plankton community while remaining computationally tractable. MARBL-SPECTRA is composed of nine phytoplankton and six zooplankton size classes represented using allometric scaling relationships for physiological traits and interactions within multiple functional types. MARBL-SPECTRA is embedded within the global ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and simulates large-scale, emergent patterns in phytoplankton growth limitation, plankton phenology, plankton generation time, and trophic transfer efficiency. The model qualitatively reproduces observed global patterns of surface nutrients, chlorophyll biomass, net primary production, and the biogeographies of a range of plankton size classes. In addition, the model simulates how predator:prey dynamics and trophic efficiency vary across gradients in total ecosystem productivity. Shorter food chains that export proportionally more carbon from the surface to the ocean interior occur in productive, eutrophic regions, whereas in oligotrophic regions, the food chains are relatively long and export less organic matter from the surface. The union of functional type modeling with size-resolved, trait-based modeling approaches allows MARBL-SPECTRA to capture both large-scale elemental cycles and the structure of planktonic food webs affecting trophic transfer efficiency.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models

Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Van Hove singularity in the magnon spectrum of the antiferromagnetic quantum honeycomb lattice

In quantum magnets, magnetic moments fluctuate heavily and are strongly entangled with each other, a fundamental distinction from classical magnetism. Here, with inelastic neutron scattering measurements, we probe the spin correlations of the honeycomb lattice quantum magnet YbCl 3 . A linear spin wave theory with a single Heisenberg interaction on the honeycomb lattice, including both transverse and longitudinal channels of the neutron response, reproduces all of the key features in the spectrum. In particular, we identify a Van Hove singularity, a clearly observable sharp feature within a continuum response. The demonstration of such a Van Hove singularity in a two-magnon continuum is important as a confirmation of broadly held notions of continua in quantum magnetism and additionally because analogous features in two-spinon continua could be used to distinguish quantum spin liquids from merely disordered systems. These results establish YbCl 3 as a benchmark material for quantum magnetism on the honeycomb lattice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aperture and roughness govern iron oxide passivation in olivine fractures during carbon mineralization

Efficient carbon dioxide mineralization in silicate-rich formations depends on reaction rates within fracture networks, yet the role of fracture microstructure remains poorly constrained. We investigated how fracture aperture and surface roughness influence mineralization by reacting synthetic forsteritic olivine fractures with controlled apertures (0.5–1.6 millimeters) and roughness (6–16 micrometers) with supercritical carbon dioxide at 13.7 megapascals and 185 degrees Celsius. Optical microscopy and Raman spectroscopy showed that rougher fracture surfaces promoted iron oxide precipitation, which passivated olivine surfaces, limiting magnesium availability for carbonate formation while removing iron as a reactant. These effects were more pronounced in smaller-aperture fractures. A geochemical model incorporating surface topography and passivation reproduced the observed trends, confirming that increased roughness can reduce reactivity despite greater surface area. Our results demonstrate that fracture microstructure strongly influences iron oxide passivation and carbon dioxide mineralization, with important implications for predicting long-term performance of engineered carbon dioxide storage systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference

Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗