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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Ecological Forecasting Project Management with Examples

Once scientists publish results of their projects and studies, all too often they end up on the shelf and are not otherwise used. The NASA Earth Science Division established its Applied Sciences Program (ASP) to apply research findings to help solve and manage real-world problems and needs. ASP-funded projects generally produce decision support systems for operational applications which are expected to last beyond the end of the NASA funding. Because of NASAs unique perspective of looking down on the Earth from space, ASP studies involve the use of remotely sensed information consisting of satellite data and imagery as well as information from sub-orbital platforms. ASP regularly solicits Earth science proposals that address one or more focus areas; disasters mitigation, ecological forecasting, health and air quality, and water resources. Reporting requirements for ASP-funded projects are different from those typical for research grants from NASA and other granting agencies, requiring management approaches different from other programs. This presentation will address the foregoing in some detail and give examples of three ASP-funded ecological forecasting projects that include: 1) the detection and survey of chimpanzee habitat in Africa from space, 2) harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the California Current System affecting aquaculture facilities and marine mammal populations, and 3) a call for the public to identify North America wildlife in Wisconsin using trail camera photos. Contact information to propose to ASP solicitations for those PIs interested is also provided.

Management↗
NASA NTRS1974

Natural resource inventories and management applications in the Great Basin

ERTS-1 resolution capabilities and repetitive coverage have allowed the acquisition of several statewide inventories of natural resource features not previously completed or that could not be completed in any other way. Familiarity with landform, tone, pattern and other converging factors, along with multidate imagery, has been required. Nevada's vegetation has been mapped from ERTS-1. Dynamic characteristics of the landscape have been studied. Sequential ERTS-1 imagery has proved its usefulness for mapping vegetation, following vegetation phenology changes, monitoring changes in lakes and reservoirs (including water quality), determining changes in surface mining use, making fire fuel estimates and determining potential hazard, mapping the distribution of rain and snow events, making range readiness determinations, monitoring marshland management practices and other uses. Feasibility has been determined, but details of incorporating the data in management systems awaits further research and development. The need is to accurately define the steps necessary to extract required or usable information from ERTS imagery and fit it into on-going management programs.

Tueller, P. T.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of Groundwater Sampling Technologies, Including Passive Diffusion Sampling, for Radionuclide Contamination - 20205

Using traditional high-flow purge methods for long-term water quality monitoring of deep groundwater wells can be expensive, affect contaminant migration, and produce excessive volumes of discharge water that can be difficult to manage. The use of low-flow pumping methods and depth discrete bailers (DDBs) can reduce the cost of sampling deep groundwater wells. In general, using different pumping methods to obtain reproducible and representative groundwater can be challenging. Passive diffusion samplers (PDSs) have successfully been used in long-term monitoring for volatile organic compounds, major ions, and trace-elements, but application has been limited for stable and radioactive isotopes. Beginning in 2018, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted three sampling events to test the ability of PDSs and DDBs to obtain reproducible and representative groundwater samples. The sampled well is completed in a regional, permeable carbonate aquifer and is one in a set of wells that have historically been used for tritium tracer testing. All samples were obtained at 180 m (590 ft) below land surface (bls) in a 13.97 cm (5.5 inch) uncased well that has a total depth of 202 m (662 ft) bls. The first sampling event deployed a regenerated cellulose dialysis membrane (RCDM) PDS for 14 days with deionized water as the blank. The second sampling event deployed a RCDM for 27 days also with deionized water as the blank. The third sampling event deployed a Dual Membrane (DM) PDS for 65 days using a blank of tritium-dead carbonate water. The DM PDS was used to assess the effect of longer term deployment on tritium concentrations and address whether or not the PDSs reached equilibrium with ambient groundwater. The day after each of the three passive samplers were retrieved a DDB was used to obtain discrete non-integrated groundwater samples. For each DDB sampling day, the bailer was lowered into the well 10 consecutive times to determine if the water chemistry changed from the first to the last bailed sample. Quality assurance samples including blanks and duplicates were obtained during all three sampling events. All blank waters had tritium concentrations less than 21±33 pCi/L. Major ion (e.g. calcium, chloride, sodium, and sulfate) results were compared between all samples obtained with RCDM and DDB. Major ion concentrations showed a coefficient of variation of less than 6% between all RCDM and DDB samples; however, the coefficient of variation between the different deployment times and the two different methods for trace-element concentrations was much larger, particularly for manganese (82%), lead (41%), and zinc (33%). Stable isotope values were compared between the RCDM and DDB samples. The DDB sample results all fell within analytical uncertainty and were considered representative of the formation groundwater. The stable isotope values from the RCDM samples indicated that a longer deployment time was necessary to gain equilibrium and to obtain representative groundwater samples. Tritium results from groundwater samples obtained from the RCDM, DM, and DDB indicate that groundwaters obtained with PDSs produced tritium concentrations 2 to 3 times higher (between 1,426 and 3,060±87 pCi/L) than groundwaters obtained with a DDB (479 to 1,219±51 pCi/L). The longer the passive diffusion samplers were deployed, the higher the tritium concentration, suggesting that equilibrium with tritium was not reached within a 27-day deployment. DDB samples showed tritium results declining from the first to the last bailed sample for all three sampling events. This research suggests that tritium results from groundwater samples obtained from PDSs are more reproducible than samples obtained from DDBs. Also, PDSs likely do not accumulate isotopes of water but rather equilibrate with the ambient groundwater. On the other hand, both PDSs and DDBs were able to provide representative groundwater samples for major ions and have the potential to produce representative groundwater samples for stable isotopes of water (δD and δ{sup 18}O). Utilizing the most effective method for sampling groundwater is important for long-term groundwater monitoring. Quantifying the ability of passive diffusion groundwater samplers to obtain representative radioactive chemistry samples will help determine if these methods can be a useful alternative to pumping and purging wells for long-term monitoring. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Manual Sampling Locations for Regulatory and Emergency Response

Drinking water systems commonly use manual or grab sampling to monitor water quality, identify or confirm issues, and verify that corrective or emergency response actions have been effective. In this paper, the effectiveness of regulatory sampling locations for emergency response is explored. An optimization formulation based on the literature was used to identify manual sampling locations to maximize overall nodal coverage of the system. Results showed that sampling locations could be effective in confirming incidents for which they were not designed. When evaluating sampling locations optimized for emergency response against regulatory scenarios, the average performance was reduced by 3%–4%, while using optimized regulatory sampling locations for emergency response reduced performance by 7%–10%. Secondary constraints were also included in the formulation to ensure geographical and water age diversity with minimal impact on the performance. This work highlighted that regulatory sampling locations provide value in responding to an emergency for these networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Factors Affecting Bait Site Visitation: Area of Influence of Baits

Baiting is a fundamental strategy for the global management of wild pigs (Sus scrofa); however, little information exists on how anthropogenic bait affects wild pig movements on a landscape. We investigated factors that are important in determining the spatial area of attraction for wild pigs to bait (‘area of influence’ of a bait site) using data from Global Positioning System (GPS) collars and locations of bait sites. We monitored movements of wild pigs in 2 distinct study areas in the United States from February to September 2016 and used locational data using GPS collars to analyze the influence of habitat quality (dependent on site), home range size, number of bait sites in the home range, distance to a bait site, and sex in relation to movement in time and space. We determined the average area of influence by calculating the area of a circle with the radius as the average maximum distance travelled by wild pigs to reach a bait site. The average area of influence for our bait sites was 6.7 km 2 (or a radius of approximately 1.5 km), suggesting a bait spacing of approximately 1.5 km would be adequate to capture visitation by most wild pigs and a spacing of 3 km could allow substantial visitation while minimizing redundant effort depending on the spatial structure of the populations. Eighty percent of wild pigs first visited bait sites within 8.9 days after bait deployment; and they visited earlier when their home range size was larger. As the number of bait sites in an individual's home range increased, individual pigs visited more bait sites, and the probability of a visit increased dramatically up to approximately 5 bait sites and much less thereafter. Wild pigs travelled farther distances to visit bait sites in lower quality habitat. Our results support the hypothesis that habitat quality can mediate the efficacy of baiting programs for wildlife by influencing their movement patterns and motivation to use anthropogenic resources. Our results suggest wild pigs will travel extensively within their home range to visit bait sites, and that in lower quality habitat, most animals will find bait sites more quickly. Determining the area of influence of bait sites can increase the efficacy of planning and monitoring management programs. Overall, our study provides new information to help managers plan baiting designs to attract the greatest number of pigs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perturbation of soil organic carbon induced by land-use change from primary forest

Abstract The impact of land-use change (LUC) on soil organic carbon (SOC) has been a wide concern of land management policymakers because CO 2 emissions induced by LUC have been the second largest carbon source worldwide. However, due to insufficient data quality and limited biome coverage, a global big picture of the impact of LUC on SOC is still not clear. This study conducted a meta-analysis on 288 independent observations sourced from 62 peer-reviewed papers to provide a global summary of the change in SOC after the conversion of primary forests into other land-use types. The conversion of primary forest to cropland resulted in the most severe SOC loss (−33.2%), followed by conversion into plantation forests (−22.3%) and secondary forests (−19.1%). Nonetheless, SOC increased by 9.1% after a conversion from primary forests into pasture. More SOC loss was found at sites with lower precipitation for primary forests converted to cropland and plantation forests. The SOC loss decreased consistently with increasing mean annual temperature (MAT) for all four types of LUC. Moreover, the loss of SOC tended to worsen over time when primary forests are converted to cropland or plantation forests. In contrast, SOC loss recovered over time following conversion to secondary forests. The gain of SOC gradually increased over time after conversion to pastures. To conclude, the changes in SOC are related not only to the land-use type but also to precipitation, temperature and turn years after LUC. Due to limited data, this study focuses on soil profiles within 30 cm depth, and future research should explore SOC dynamics induced by LUC at greater depths. Overall, cases of SOC loss of approximately 30% following deforestation were very common (except for conversion to pasture), and the results of this study show that the loss of SOC following LUC should be carefully considered and monitored in land management.

Zhang, Zhiyuan (ORCID:0000000223407001)↗
DOE OSTI2020

2018 Annual Site Environmental Report Summary

We are committed to act as stewards of our environment to achieve our mission in accordance with all applicable environmental requirements. We set continual improvement objectives and targets, measure and document our progress, and share our results with our workforce, sponsors, and public. We reduce our environmental risk through legacy cleanup, pollution prevention, and long-term sustainability programs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Projecting manpower to attain quality

The resulting model is useful as a projection tool but must be validated in order to be used as an on-going software cost engineering tool. A procedure is developed to facilitate the tracking of model projections and actual data to allow the model to be tuned. Finally, since the model must be used in an environment of overlapping development activities on a progression of software elements in development and maintenance, a manpower allocation model is developed for use in a steady state development/maintenance environment. In these days of soaring software costs it becomes increasingly important to properly manage a software development project. One element of the management task is the projection and tracking of manpower required to perform the task. In addition, since the total cost of the task is directly related to the initial quality built into the software, it becomes a necessity to project the development manpower in a way to attain that quality. An approach to projecting and tracking manpower with quality in mind is described.

Rone, K. Y.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Ejectable Data Recorder: A Lean, Risk-Informed Approach for Hardware Development

NASA is developing the Orion spacecraft to transport crew from the Earth to the Moon as part of the Artemis series of missions. To provide a crew escape capability from pre-launch through ascent, the Orion vehicle is equipped with a Launch Abort System (LAS), built by Lockheed Martin, which pulls the capsule away from the launch vehicle in the event of an abort scenario. The Ascent Abort 2 (AA-2) test flight occurred on July 2, 2019,and tested a production version of the LAS to ensure that it can operate as intended, and to collect a large data set from hundreds of sensors on the vehicle to support Orion flight certification. In the original AA-2 architecture, a single-string set of communications antennas on the LAS would downlink all of the in-flight test data to ground stations. However, that communications architecture was predicted to have data dropouts during abort and jettison of the LAS, and would not support data transmission at all after LAS jettison. As a result, a comprehensive trade study was completed, yielding the addition of antennas on the crew module (CM), a buffer/rebroadcast capability for key portions of the flight, and an ejectable data recorder (EDR) subsystem. This EDR subsystem would serve as a backup to the radio frequency (RF) communications system, and would be non-flight critical, providing a unique capability that enabled management to take a different approach with the hardware and software development. The Crew Module and Separation Ring were developed as “Class 1”Flight Hardware, albeit with some tailoring approaches to enable efficiencies. The Class 1 designation requires full rigor for flight hardware and software, documenting everything that happens to a piece of hardware from procurement through disposal, requiring a full spectrum of acceptance tests, and the highest rigor of quality assurance processes. At the other end of the spectrum, Class 3hardware is controlled, but not intended for flight, and leaves the level of rigor up to the project manager. This classification is often used for research and development projects. Similarly,Class-1E has been recently defined at NASA for ISS payloads and technology development projects that are not flight critical and do not need the full rigor of Class 1 to be successful. The EDR subsystem was challenged at commencement to adopt a skunkworks and agile-like approach to hardware development, allowing for a different risk posture than the rest of the AA-2 hardware. After initially pursuing Class 1 processes, the EDR subsystem design evolved to incorporating numerous commercial components, leading to re-designation as a Class-1E subsystem. The resulting EDR subsystem was fully successful in meeting all flight system requirements, and achieved 100% retrieval of flight test data. This paper will discuss the risk posture of the EDR subsystem and the subsequent tailoring that was enacted as part of its Class-1E status.

EDR↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Prototype Software to Demonstrate a Data Catalog for Hanford Environmental Datasets

Ensuring that data on long-term environmental remediation at the Hanford Site is high-quality, traceable, and easily accessible is an ongoing challenge, complicated by decades of data collection, multiple contractors maintaining data sources, and the wide range of data types. A centralized data catalog, known as the Hanford Environmental Information and Data Index (HEIDI), has been under development as part of the Hanford Environmental Data Management (HEDM) program to address these challenges. HEIDI fulfills a critical need to bring together a wide range of data types and sizes from multiple authoritative data sources, while documenting the data pedigree and quality information (i.e., traceable to the data source/originator). This document describes additional development and maturation of the HEIDI prototype. Key accomplishments included deploying the catalog software, Esri Geoportal Server, on a server accessible to Hanford Local Area Network users, conducting cybersecurity evaluations, investigating integrated authentication solutions, and conducting functional testing of the catalog prototype. The server-based deployment enabled targeted feedback, leading to enhancements including improved accessibility features and an expanded metadata schema. Specifications for the server-based deployment of the prototype catalog and the HEIDI metadata schema are provided in this document to support subsequent HEIDI deployment by the U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Soil atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, 1998 - ongoing

The Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) established a network of long-term permanent biogeochemical study plots in 1998. These plots provide long-term data on vegetation, soil and hydrologic processes in the key ecosystem types within the urban ecosystem. The network of study plots includes forest plots (upland and riparian), chosen to represent the range of forest conditions in the area and grass plots (to represent home lawns). Plots are instrumented with lysimeters (drainage and tension) to sample soil solution chemistry, time domain reflectometry probes to measure soil moisture, dataloggers to measure and record soil temperature, and trace gas flux chambers to measure the flux of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane from soil to the atmosphere. Measurements of in situ nitrogen mineralization, nitrification and denitrification were made at approximately monthly intervals from Fall 1998 - Fall 2000. Detailed vegetation characterization (all layers) was done in summer 1998 and 2015. Data from these plots has been published in Groffman et al. (2006, 2009), Groffman and Pouyat (2009), Savva et al. (2010), Costa and Groffman (2013), Duncan et al. (2013), Waters et al. (2014), Ni and Groffman (2018), Templeton et al. (2019). Literature Cited Costa, K.H. and P.M. Groffman. 2013. Factors regulating net methane flux in urban forests and grasslands. Soil Science Society of America Journal 77:850 - 855. Duncan, J. M., L. E. Band, and P. M. Groffman. 2013. Towards closing the watershed nitrogen budget: Spatial and temporal scaling of denitrification. Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 118:1-5; DOI: 10.1002/jgrg.20090 Groffman PM, Pouyat RV, Cadenasso ML, Zipperer WC, Szlavecz K, Yesilonis IC,. Band LE and Brush GS. 2006. Land use context and natural soil controls on plant community composition and soil nitrogen and carbon dynamics in urban and rural forests. Forest Ecology and Management 236:177-192. Groffman, P.M., C.O. Williams, R.V. Pouyat, L.E. Band and I.C. Yesilonis. 2009. Nitrate leaching and nitrous oxide flux in urban forests and grasslands. Journal of Environmental Quality 38:1848-1860. Groffman, P.M. and R.V. Pouyat. 2009. Methane uptake in urban forests and lawns. Environmental Science and Technology 43:5229-5235. DOI: 10.1021/es803720h. Ni, X. and P.M. Groffman. 2018. Declines in methane uptake in forest soils. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science of the United States of America 115:8587-8590. Savva, Y., K. Szlavecz, R. V. Pouyat, P. M. Groffman, and G. Heisler. 2010. Effects of land use and vegetation cover on soil temperature in an urban ecosystem. Soil Science Society of America Journal 74:469-480. Templeton, L., M.L. Cadenasso, J. Sullivan, M. Neel and P.M. Groffman. 2019. Changes in vegetation structure and composition of urban and rural forest patches in Baltimore from 1998 to 2015. Forest Ecology and Management. In press. Waters, E.R., J.L. Morse, N.D. Bettez and P.M. Groffman. 2014. Differential carbon and nitrogen controls of denitrification in riparian zones and streams along an urban to exurban gradient. Journal of Environmental Quality 43:955–963.

Groffman, Peter M↗
NASA NTRS1986

Data reduction, management, and analysis software for CID

In an overview of the Data Reduction System, three major steps are examined. First, the raw data tapes were selected from the onboard recorders. These tapes should provide the best quality data for the data reduction software system. These tapes contained 352 channels of data, plus the monitor channels recorded in 8 bit Pulsed Coded Modulation (PCM) words. The next step consists of transcribing the PCM tapes from 8 bit serial digital data to 8 bit parallel digital data. This puts the data in the correct format for processing. The transcription process was accomplished here at LaRC in the Central Data Transportation Facility (CDTF). The last step in this 3 step process is to process the data through the reduction system developed for the Impact Dynamic Research Facility in the early part of 1980. Processing system criteria, system interface routines, and engineering units program that reads digitized data from tapes, and file management programs are discussed.

Davis, C. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Providing a Flexible and Comprehensive Software Stack Via Spack, an Extreme-Scale Scientific Software Stack, and Software Development Kits

To manage the complex demands of modern high-performance computing (HPC), software applications increasingly depend on software developed by other teams, often at other institutions. An HPC software ecosystem approach is required to support dependencies on third-party scientific software. An ecosystem approach provides layers of activity above the individual software product level that promote interoperability, quality improvement, porting, testing, and deployment. The U.S. Exascale Computing Project (ECP) developed its HPC software ecosystem using a three-pronged approach. First, the ECP adopted and invested in Spack, a package manager designed to handle complex HPC package dependencies. Second, the ECP created the Extreme Scale Scientific Software Stack, an effort that supports developing, deploying, and running scientific applications on HPC platforms. Third, the ECP supported software product communities, or software development kits, to develop and promote best practices, improve software interoperability, and other collaborative efforts. This article describes ECP contributions to HPC software ecosystem challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Visit from JAXA to NASA MSFC: The Engines Element & Ideas for Collaboration

System Design, Development, and Fabrication: Design, develop, and fabricate or procure MB-60 component hardware compliant with the imposed technical requirements and in sufficient quantities to fulfill the overall MB-60 development effort. System Development, Assembly, and Test: Manage the scope of the development, assembly, and test-related activities for MB-60 development. This scope includes engine-level development planning, engine assembly and disassembly, test planning, engine testing, inspection, anomaly resolution, and development of necessary ground support equipment and special test equipment. System Integration: Provide coordinated integration in the realms of engineering, safety, quality, and manufacturing disciplines across the scope of the MB-60 design and associated products development Safety and Mission Assurance, structural design, fracture control, materials and processes, thermal analysis. Systems Engineering and Analysis: Manage and perform Systems Engineering and Analysis to provide rigor and structure to the overall design and development effort for the MB-60. Milestone reviews, requirements management, system analysis, program management support Program Management: Manage, plan, and coordinate the activities across all portions of the MB-60 work scope by providing direction for program administration, business management, and supplier management.

Greene, William D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Component Identification of Solid Biomass Fuels Using Reflected Light Microscopy: Interlaboratory Study 2

As nations transition toward sustainable energy systems, biomass has become a vital component of global energy portfolios. Derived from organic materials such as wood, agricultural residues, forestry byproducts, and organic waste, biomass is a renewable energy source with significant environmental and economic benefits. Responsible biomass energy production can improve waste management, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and mitigate environmental pollution. However, as the diversity of biomass-derived fuels increases, robust quality assessment methods are essential to ensure their efficiency, safety, and minimal environmental impact. Reflected light microscopy (RLM) is one such technique with the potential to complement conventional physico-chemical analyses by enabling a rapid identification of material constituents and impurities. To refine this methodology and evaluate the reproducibility of solid biomass component identification using RLM, an interlaboratory study (ILS) was conducted. The study involved the recognition of 58 components across 45 photomicrographs, with the participation of 65 scientists and students from 25 countries. The participants faced high difficulty identifying some of the marked components, and as a result, the percentage of correct answers ranged from 19.0 % to 98.3 %, with an average correct identification rate of 62.7 %. The most challenging aspects of the identification process included distinguishing between woody and non-woody (agro) biomass, accurately identifying petroleum-derived materials, and differentiating agro biomass from inorganic matter. The results suggest that while RLM is an important tool for characterizing solid biomass, further development of methodology guidelines and training are necessary to enhance its effectiveness. Future research should prioritize preparing detailed, image-rich, microscopic morphological descriptions of biomass fuel components, which could improve the accuracy and reliability of using RLM in biomass fuel characterization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Health Physics Research Reactor Criticality Accident Alarm System Benchmark Overview

From the countless critical experiments performed in the world during the past century, high-quality integral benchmarks experiments have been collected and gathered into the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (ICSBEP Handbook), managed by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Working Group. This information preservation and dissemination effort is crucial for reactor licensing as well as criticality and radiation transport modeling validation. This summary reports on the status of a tentative benchmark addition to the ICSBEP Handbook. The proposed benchmark arises from legacy operation data of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR). The HPRR was a small, unmoderated, unshielded fast burst reactor that was used for research in health physics and radiobiology as well as teaching and training. As part of a comprehensive investigation of the available HPRR operation data and characteristics, different possibilities for use of the valuable results were studied. A critical experiment benchmark evaluation was performed, analyzing data coming from sub-critical and critical operation of the HPRR during operator training, steady-state irradiation of samples and before critical bursts. The results of the evaluation do not satisfy for the ICSBEP standards as the benchmark relative standard uncertainty is of about 4% for k eff , and the relative difference between sample calculations and expected k eff results is of about 1.5%. Due to those unsatisfactory results, it was decided not to pursue critical experiments evaluation of the HPRR presently and to focus instead on shielding type data for the creation of a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) and shielding category benchmark, which is currently very scarce in the ICSBEP handbook—especially concerning critical, pulsed assembly, or reactor operation data. Several dosimetry and shielding experiments from HPRR burst operation were evaluated, with different benchmark metrics as sulfur fluence, Element 57 dose, or neutron fluence at different distances and under different shield materials conditions. An evaluation focusing on the Element 57 neutron dose as a benchmark metric was submitted to the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) meeting in October 2021, and the inclusion of the evaluation in the ICSBEP Handbook was deferred. The main change proposed by the international experiment evaluation experts is to use the neutron fluence measured by Bonner spheres as a benchmark metric. This represents a quantity closer to that actually measured by the experimentalists of the HPRR compared to the Element 57 dose, which adds another step of data transformation, thus potentially adding uncertainty to the benchmark. The evaluation has been updated and will be submitted to the 2022 ICSBEP TRG meeting for inclusion in the 2023 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. The evaluation is performed using the KENO and MAVRIC combination from the SCALE 6.2.4 code suite which was previously used in similar CAAS benchmarks to allow for the use of variance reduction techniques.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗