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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations

Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS)

In 2019, the eROSITA telescope on board the Russian-German satellite Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma (SRG) began to perform a deep all-sky X-ray survey with the aim of identifying ~100 000 clusters and groups over the course of four years. As part of its performance verification phase, a ~140 deg 2 survey, called eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS), was performed. With a depth typical of the all-sky survey after four years, it allows tests of tools and methods as well as improved predictions for the all-sky survey. As part of this effort, a catalog of 542 X-ray selected galaxy group and cluster candidates was compiled. Here, in this paper, we present the optical follow-up, with the aim of providing redshifts and cluster confirmation for the full sample. Furthermore, we aim to provide additional information on the dynamical state, richness, and optical center of the clusters. Finally, we aim to evaluate the impact of optical cluster confirmation on the purity and completeness of the X-ray selected sample. We used optical imaging data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program and from the Legacy Survey to identify optical counterparts to the X-ray detected cluster candidates. We make use of the multi-component matched filter cluster confirmation tool (MCMF), as well as of the optical cluster finder CAMIRA to derive cluster redshifts and richnesses. MCMF provided the probabilities with which an optical structure would be a chance superposition with the X-ray candidate. These probabilities were used to identify the best optical counterpart as well as to confirm an X-ray candidate as a cluster. The impact of this confirmation process on catalog purity and completeness was estimated using optical to X-ray scaling relations as well as simulations. The resulting catalog was furthermore matched with public group and cluster catalogs. Optical estimators of the cluster dynamical state were constructed based on density maps of the red-sequence galaxies at the cluster redshift. By providing redshift estimates for all 542 candidates, we construct an optically confirmed sample of 477 clusters and groups with a residual contamination of 6%. Of these, 470 (98.5%) are confirmed using MCMF, and 7 systems are added through cross-matching with spectroscopic group catalogs. Using observable-to-observable scaling and the applied confirmation threshold, we predict that 8 ± 2 real systems have been excluded with the MCMF cut required to build this low-contamination sample. This number agrees well with the 7 systems found through cross-matching that were not confirmed with MCMF. The predicted redshift and mass distribution of this catalog agree well with simulations. Thus, we expect that these 477 systems include >99% of all true clusters in the candidate list. Using an MCMF-independent method, we confirm that the catalog contamination of the confirmed subsample is 6 ± 3%. Application of the same method to the full candidate list yields 17 ± 3%, consistent with estimates coming from the fraction of confirmed systems of ~17% and with expectations from simulations of ~20%. We also present a sample of merging cluster candidates based on the derived estimators of the cluster dynamical state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2022

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: measurement of the growth rate of structure from the small-scale clustering of the luminous red galaxy sample

ABSTRACT We measure the small-scale clustering of the Data Release 16 extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Luminous Red Galaxy sample, corrected for fibre-collisions using Pairwise Inverse Probability weights, which give unbiased clustering measurements on all scales. We fit to the monopole and quadrupole moments and to the projected correlation function over the separation range $7-60\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ with a model based on the aemulus cosmological emulator to measure the growth rate of cosmic structure, parametrized by fσ8. We obtain a measurement of fσ8(z = 0.737) = 0.408 ± 0.038, which is 1.4σ lower than the value expected from 2018 Planck data for a flat ΛCDM model, and is more consistent with recent weak-lensing measurements. The level of precision achieved is 1.7 times better than more standard measurements made using only the large-scale modes of the same sample. We also fit to the data using the full range of scales $0.1\text{--}60\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ modelled by the aemulus cosmological emulator and find a 4.5σ tension in the amplitude of the halo velocity field with the Planck + ΛCDM model, driven by a mismatch on the non-linear scales. This may not be cosmological in origin, and could be due to a breakdown in the Halo Occupation Distribution model used in the emulator. Finally, we perform a robust analysis of possible sources of systematics, including the effects of redshift uncertainty and incompleteness due to target selection that were not included in previous analyses fitting to clustering measurements on small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Improved Regional Hydrological Model Performance Using State-Of-The-Science Data-Informed Soil Parameters

Accurate soil moisture and streamflow data are an aspirational need of many hydrologically relevant fields. Model simulated soil moisture and streamflow hold promise but models require validation prior to application. Calibration methods are commonly used to improve model fidelity but misrepresentation of the true dynamics remains a challenge. In this study, we leverage soil parameter estimates from the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the probability mapping of SSURGO (POLARIS) to improve the representation of hydrologic processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) over a central California domain. Our results show WRF-Hydro soil moisture exhibits increased correlation coefficients ( r ), reduced biases, and increased Kling-Gupta Efficiencies (KGEs) across seven in situ soil moisture observing stations after updating the model's soil parameters according to POLARIS. Compared to four well-established soil moisture data sets including Soil Moisture Active Passive data and three Phase 2 North American Land Data Assimilation System land surface models, our POLARIS-adjusted WRF-Hydro simulations produce the highest mean KGE (0.69) across the seven stations. More importantly, WRF-Hydro streamflow fidelity also increases, especially in the case where the model domain is set up with SSURGO-informed total soil thickness. The magnitude and timing of peak flow events are better captured, r increases across nine United States Geological Survey stream gages, and the mean KGE across seven of the nine gages increases from 0.12 to 0.66. Our pre-calibration parameter estimate approach, which is transferable to other spatially distributed hydrological models, can substantially improve a model's performance, helping reduce calibration efforts and computational costs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical and dynamical characterization of hyperbolic comet C/2017 U7 (PANSTARRS)

Here we present here a dynamical and observational study of the comet C/2017 U7 (PANSTARRS). This comet was discovered in 2017 and found to have a hyperbolic orbit. Our dynamical analysis shows that the object has probably originated in the Oort cloud, however an interstellar origin cannot be discarded. The observations were obtained in 2018 and 2019 using the Goodman High Throughput Spectrograph (GHTS) at the SOAR telescope. We obtained visible spectra covering the wavelength range of 0.5 - 0.9 μm and also images in the SDSS filters system. Both the low-resolution reflectance spectrum and the reflectance spectra derived from the SDSS filters show an atypical band at ~ 0.595 μm. We conducted a comparative study of the colors and reflectance spectra of different small body populations (e.g., comets, Centaurs, and trans-Neptunian objects or TNOs) from the literature and concluded that the spectra and the colors of this comet are atypical, showing only some overlap with those of some known members of the TNOs and Centaurs, within the large uncertainties of the measurements of those populations. It is found that the feature and overall spectral shape can be reproduced by laboratory spectra of kerite, a template for aliphatic-rich hydrocarbons that has been previously identified in NIR cometary spectra absorptions. It is tentatively proposed that the unusual spectral shape is the result of a particle size distribution of dust grains in the coma or on the surface that has arisen due to a low grain ejection velocity from the surface and large nucleus size.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: pairwise-inverse probability and angular correction for fibre collisions in clustering measurements

ABSTRACT The completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) catalogues contain redshifts of 344 080 quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2, 174 816 luminous red galaxies between 0.6 < z < 1.0, and 173 736 emission-line galaxies over 0.6 < z < 1.1 in order to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the growth rate of structure through clustering measurements. Mechanical limitations of the fibre-fed spectrograph on the Sloan telescope prevent two fibres being placed closer than 62 arcsec in a single pass of the instrument. These ‘fibre collisions’ strongly correlate with the intrinsic clustering of targets and can bias measurements of the two-point correlation function resulting in a systematic error on the inferred values of the cosmological parameters. We combine the new techniques of pairwise-inverse probability and the angular upweighting (PIP+ANG) to correct the clustering measurements for the effect of fibre collisions. Using mock catalogues, we show that our corrections provide unbiased measurements, within data precision, of both the projected $\rm {\mathit{ w}_p}\left(\mathit{ r}_p\right)$ and the redshift-space multipole ξ(ℓ = 0, 2, 4)(s) correlation functions down to $0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, regardless of the tracer type. We apply the corrections to the eBOSS DR16 catalogues. We find that, on scales $s\gtrsim 20\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ for ξℓ, as used to make baryon acoustic oscillation and large-scale redshift-space distortion measurements, approximate methods such as nearest-neighbour upweighting are sufficiently accurate given the statistical errors of the data. Using the PIP method, for the first time for a spectroscopic program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we are able to successfully access the one-halo term in the clustering measurements down to $\sim 0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ scales. Our results will therefore allow studies that use the small-scale clustering to strengthen the constraints on both cosmological parameters and the halo occupation distribution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The evolution of high-density cores of the BOSS Great Wall superclusters

Context. High-density cores (HDCs) of galaxy superclusters that embed rich clusters and groups of galaxies are the earliest large objects to form in the cosmic web, and the largest objects that may collapse in the present or future. Aims. We aim to study the dynamical state and possible evolution of the HDCs in the BOSS Great Wall (BGW) superclusters at redshift z ≈ 0.5 from the CMASS (constant mass) galaxy sample, based on the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) in order to understand the growth and evolution of structures in the Universe. Methods. We analysed the luminosity density distribution in the BGW superclusters to determine the HDCs in them. We derived the density contrast values for the spherical collapse model in a wide range of redshifts and used these values to study the dynamical state and possible evolution of the HDCs of the BGW superclusters. The masses of the HDCs were calculated using stellar masses of galaxies in them. We found the masses and radii of the turnaround and future collapse regions in the HDCs of the BGW superclusters and compared them with those of local superclusters. Results. We determined eight HDCs in the BGW superclusters. The masses of their turnaround regions are in the range of M T ≈ 0.4–3.3 × 10 15 h -1 M ⊙ , and radii are in the range of R T ≈ 3.5–7 h -1 Mpc. The radii of their future collapse regions are in the range of R FC ≈ 4–8 h -1 Mpc. Distances between individual cores in superclusters are much larger: of the order of 25–35 h -1 Mpc. The richness and sizes of the HDCs are comparable with those of the HDCs of the richest superclusters in the local Universe. Conclusions. The BGW superclusters will probably evolve to several poorer superclusters with masses similar to those of the local superclusters. This may weaken the tension with the ΛCDM model, which does not predict a large number of very rich and large superclusters in our local cosmic neighbourhood, and explains why there are no superclusters as elongated as those in the BGW in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diverse Chemo-Dynamical Properties of Nitrogen-Rich Stars Identified from Low-Resolution Spectra

The second generation of stars in the globular clusters (GCs) of the Milky Way (MW) exhibit unusually high N, Na, or Al, compared to typical Galactic halo stars at similar metallicities. The halo field stars enhanced with such elements are believed to have originated in disrupted GCs or escaped from existing GCs. We identify such stars in the metallicity range –3.0 < [Fe/H] < 0.0 from a sample of ~ 36,800 giant stars observed in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope survey, and present their dynamical properties. The N-rich population (NRP) and N-normal population (NNP) among our giant sample do not exhibit similarities in either in their metallicity distribution function (MDF) or dynamical properties. We find that, even though the MDF of the NRP looks similar to that of the MW’s GCs in the range of [Fe/H] < –1.0, our analysis of the dynamical properties does not indicate similarities between them in the same metallicity range, implying that the escaped members from existing GCs may account for a small fraction of our N-rich stars, or the orbits of the present GCs have been altered by the dynamical friction of the MW. We also find a significant increase in the fraction of N-rich stars in the halo field in the very metal-poor (VMP; [Fe/H] < –2.0) regime, comprising up to ~ 20% of the fraction of the N-rich stars below [Fe/H] = –2.5, hinting that partially or fully destroyed VMP GCs may have in some degree contributed to the Galactic halo. A more detailed dynamical analysis of the NRP reveals that our sample of N-rich stars do not share a single common origin. Although a substantial fraction of the N-rich stars seem to originate from the GCs formed in situ, more than 60% of them are not associated with those of typical Galactic populations, but probably have extragalactic origins associated with Gaia Sausage/Enceladus, Sequoia, and Sagittarius dwarf galaxies, as well as with presently unrecognized progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy-resolved fast-neutron radiography using an event-mode neutron imaging detector

Energy-resolved fast-neutron radiography is a powerful non-destructive technique that can be used to remotely measure the quantity and distribution of elements and isotopes in a sample. This is done by comparing the energy-dependent neutron transmission of a sample with the known cross-sections of individual isotopes. The reconstruction of the composition is possible due to the unique features (e.g. resonances) in the cross-sections of individual isotopes. At short-pulsed (≲ 1 ns) neutron sources, such information is accessible via time-of-flight neutron imaging in principle, but requires a detector with nanosecond temporal resolution. Conventional neutron detectors can meet this requirement only by heavily compromising spatial resolution or efficiency. Here, we present a unique approach on fast neutron resonance radiography using a scintillator-based event-mode imaging detector at a short-pulsed neutron source, including first results on spatially mapped resonance profiles using MeV neutrons. The event mode approach applied in the presented detector allows recording of individual neutron interactions with nanosecond precision in time and sub-mm resolution in space. As a result, the entire available neutron energy spectrum can be measured for each pulse. At the same time, the use of a thick scintillator screen and lenses to focus the produced light results in a highly flexible field of view and a high interaction probability in the sensitive volume of the detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Collective effect of thermal plumes on temperature fluctuations in a closed Rayleigh–Benard convection cell

Here, we report a systematic study of the collective effect of thermal plumes on the probability density function (PDF) P(δT) of temperature fluctuations δT(t) in turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection. By decomposing δT(t) into four basic fluctuation modes associated with single and multiple warm and cold plumes and a turbulent background, we derive an analytic form of P(δT) based on the convolutions of the five independent modes. To test the derived form of P(δT) in the multiple-plume regions, where the thermal plumes are heavily populated, we conduct time series measurements of temperature fluctuations in two convection cells; one is a vertical thin disk and the other is an upright cylinder of aspect ratio unity. For a given normalized position in most regions of the convection cell, all of the measured PDFs P(δT) for different Rayleigh numbers fall onto a single master curve, once δT is normalized by its rms value σ T . It is found that the measured P(δT / σT ) at different locations along the symmetric horizontal and vertical axes of the convection cells can all be well described by the derived form of P(δT / σT ). The fitted values of the parameters associated with the number of plumes in multiple plume clusters and their relative strengths and degrees of intermittency are closely linked to the spatial distribution of thermal plumes and local dynamics of the large-scale circulation in a closed convection cell. Our work thus provides a unified theoretical approach for understanding scalar PDFs in a turbulent field, which is very useful not only for the present study but also for the study of many turbulent mixing problems of practical interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

BeyondPlanck I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)

Andersen, KJ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Methods for Cyclical and Coupled Systems with Changing Failure Rates

Advancements in nuclear system designs with automated control features provide many benefits, but can lead to complex coupled systems and dynamic failure scenarios. This is especially true for microreactor designs where components are not expected to be replaced during the reactor’s lifetime. Hence, the life of the system, in addition to the safety, needs to be evaluated. Modeling these sequences of time-dependent events requires addressing cyclical processes and changing failure rates in ways that represent the actual system dynamics in contrast to a single sampling for a component’s time to failure. This research presents two distinct analytical methods for several failure distributions that evaluate a final time to failure used for different scenarios where the time to failure must be sampled multiple times. The first method is used when evaluating a component whose failure rate increases due to an outside event after the initial sampling but before the initially sampled time to failure. The second method is used when evaluating multiple identical components or a component that has been replaced with a new identical version before the second sampling. The two methods were implemented in a few representative case studies developed in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams. Overall, this paper provides guidelines on how these approaches give a more realistic and accurate dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of complex systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seawater sea-sand engineered/strain-hardening cementitious composites (ECC/SHCC): Assessment and modeling of crack characteristics

Highlights: • A probabilistic model was proposed to model the crack width evolution of SS-ECC at different strain levels. • The Weibull distribution fit the crack width distribution better than the log-normal distribution. • A 5-D representation was proposed to assess the SS-ECC by considering both cracking and mechanical performance. • Larger sea-sand size and lower fiber dosage led to larger crack widths in SS-ECC under the same tensile strain. • 18-mm PE fiber led to larger crack widths in SS-ECC at strain >2%, due to a large fraction of fiber rupture. Seawater sea-sand Engineered Cementitious Composites (SS-ECC) is a new version of ECC for marine constructions facing the scarcity of freshwater and river/manufactured sand. This study aims to assess and model the crack characteristics of SS-ECC, which are critical for its applications with non-corrosive reinforcements. The influence of sea-sand size, fiber length and fiber dosage on the crack characteristics of SS-ECC was explored. A five-dimensional representation was proposed to assess the overall performance of SS-ECC, by comprehensively considering both the crack characteristics (i.e., crack width and its variation) and the mechanical properties (i.e., compressive and tensile properties). A probabilistic model was also proposed to describe the stochastic nature and evolution of crack width, and it can be used to estimate the critical tensile strain on SS-ECC for a given crack-width limit and cumulative probability. The findings and proposed methods can facilitate the design of SS-ECC in marine and coastal structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Research Trends and Applications of PMUs

This work is a survey of current trends in applications of PMUs. PMUs have the potential to solve major problems in the areas of power system estimation, protection, and stability. A variety of methods are being used for these purposes, including statistical techniques, mathematical transformations, probability, and AI. The results produced by the techniques reviewed in this work are promising, but there is work to be performed in the context of implementation and standardization. As the smart grid initiative continues to advance, the number of intelligent devices monitoring the power grid continues to increase. PMUs are at the center of this initiative, and as a result, each year more PMUs are deployed across the grid. Since their introduction, myriad solutions based on PMU-technology have been suggested. The high sampling rates and synchronized measurements provided by PMUs are expected to drive significant advancements across multiple fields, such as the protection, estimation, and control of the power grid. This work offers a review of contemporary research trends and applications of PMU technology. Most solutions presented in this work were published in the last five years, and techniques showing potential for significant impact are highlighted in greater detail. Being a relatively new technology, there are several issues that must be addressed before PMU-based solutions can be successfully implemented. This survey found that key areas where improvements are needed include the establishment of PMU-observability, data processing algorithms, the handling of heterogeneous sampling rates, and the minimization of the investment in infrastructure for PMU communication. Solutions based on Bayesian estimation, as well as those having a distributed architectures, show great promise. The material presented in this document is tailored to both new researchers entering this field and experienced researchers wishing to become acquainted with emerging trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗