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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-359: Incorporating Dose Volume Histogram Prediction Into Auto-Planning for Volumetric-Modulated Arc Therapy in Rectal Cancer

Purpose: To incorporate dose volume histogram (DVH) prediction into Auto-Planning for volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatment planning and investigate the benefit of this new technique for rectal cancer. Methods: Ninety clinically accepted VMAT plans for patients with rectal cancer were selected and trained in the RapidPlan for DVH prediction. Both internal and external validations were performed before implementing the prediction model. A new VMAT planning method (hybrid-VMAT) was created with combining the DVH prediction and Auto-Planning. For each new patient, the DVH will be predicted and individual DVH constrains will be obtained and were exported as the original optimization parameters to the Auto-Planning (Pinnacle3 treatment planning system, v9.10) for planning. A total of 20 rectal cancer patients previously treated with manual VMAT (manual-VMAT) plans were replanned using this new method. Dosimetric comparisons were performed between manual VMAT and new method plans. Results: Hybrid-VMAT shows similar PTV coverage to manual-VMAT in D2%, D98% and HI (p>0.05) and superior coverage in CI (p=0.000). For the bladder, the means of V40 and mean dose are 36.0% and 35.6Gy for hybrid-VMAT and 42% and 38.0Gy for the manual-VMAT. For the left (right) femur, the means of V30 and mean dose are 10.6% (11.6%) and 17.9Gy (19.2Gy) for the hybrid-VMAT and 25.6% (24.1%) and 27.3Gy (26.2Gy) for the manual-VMAT. The hybrid-VMAT has significantly improved the organs at risk sparing. Conclusion: The integration of DVH prediction and Auto-Planning significantly improve the VMAT plan quality in the rectal cancer radiotherapy. Our results show the benefit of the new method and will be further investigated in other tumor sites.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-BRC-01: A Data-Driven Pre-Optimization Method for Prediction of Achievability of Clinical Objectives in IMRT

Purpose: We propose a novel data-driven method to predict the achievability of clinical objectives upfront before invoking the IMRT optimization. Methods: A new metric called “Geometric Complexity (GC)” is used to estimate the achievability of clinical objectives. Here, GC is the measure of the number of “unmodulated” beamlets or rays that intersect the Region-of-interest (ROI) and the target volume. We first compute the geometric complexity ratio (GCratio) between the GC of a ROI (say, parotid) in a reference plan and the GC of the same ROI in a given plan. The GCratio of a ROI indicates the relative geometric complexity of the ROI as compared to the same ROI in the reference plan. Hence GCratio can be used to predict if a defined clinical objective associated with the ROI can be met by the optimizer for a given case. Basically a higher GCratio indicates a lesser likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for a given ROI. Similarly, a lower GCratio indicates a higher likelihood for the optimizer to achieve the clinical objective defined for the given ROI. We have evaluated the proposed method on four Head and Neck cases using Pinnacle3 (version 9.10.0) Treatment Planning System (TPS). Results: Out of the total of 28 clinical objectives from four head and neck cases included in the study, 25 were in agreement with the prediction, which implies an agreement of about 85% between predicted and obtained results. The Pearson correlation test shows a positive correlation between predicted and obtained results (Correlation = 0.82, r2 = 0.64, p < 0.005). Conclusion: The study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed method in head and neck cases for predicting the achievability of clinical objectives with reasonable accuracy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP3-09: Tumor Location Prediction Using Natural Respiratory Volume for Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy (RGRT): System Verification Study

Purpose: Respiratory gated radiation therapy (RGRT) gives accurate results when a patient’s breathing is stable and regular. Thus, the patient should be fully aware during respiratory pattern training before undergoing the RGRT treatment. In order to bypass the process of respiratory pattern training, we propose a target location prediction system for RGRT that uses only natural respiratory volume, and confirm its application. Methods: In order to verify the proposed target location prediction system, an in-house phantom set was used. This set involves a chest phantom including target, external markers, and motion generator. Natural respiratory volume signals were generated using the random function in MATLAB code. In the chest phantom, the target takes a linear motion based on the respiratory signal. After a four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) scan of the in-house phantom, the motion trajectory was derived as a linear equation. The accuracy of the linear equation was compared with that of the motion algorithm used by the operating motion generator. In addition, we attempted target location prediction using random respiratory volume values. Results: The correspondence rate of the linear equation derived from the 4DCT images with the motion algorithm of the motion generator was 99.41%. In addition, the average error rate of target location prediction was 1.23% for 26 cases. Conclusion: We confirmed the applicability of our proposed target location prediction system for RGRT using natural respiratory volume. If additional clinical studies can be conducted, a more accurate prediction system can be realized without requiring respiratory pattern training.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-207B-01: A Prediction Model for Distinguishing Radiation Necrosis From Tumor Progression After Gamma Knife Radiosurgery Based On Radiomics Features From MR Images

Purpose: To develop and validate a prediction model using radiomics features extracted from MR images to distinguish radiation necrosis from tumor progression for brain metastases treated with Gamma knife radiosurgery. Methods: The images used to develop the model were T1 post-contrast MR scans from 71 patients who had had pathologic confirmation of necrosis or progression; 1 lesion was identified per patient (17 necrosis and 54 progression). Radiomics features were extracted from 2 images at 2 time points per patient, both obtained prior to resection. Each lesion was manually contoured on each image, and 282 radiomics features were calculated for each lesion. The correlation for each radiomics feature between two time points was calculated within each group to identify a subset of features with distinct values between two groups. The delta of this subset of radiomics features, characterizing changes from the earlier time to the later one, was included as a covariate to build a prediction model using support vector machines with a cubic polynomial kernel function. The model was evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Forty radiomics features were selected based on consistent correlation values of approximately 0 for the necrosis group and >0.2 for the progression group. In performing the 10-fold cross-validation, we narrowed this number down to 11 delta radiomics features for the model. This 11-delta-feature model showed an overall prediction accuracy of 83.1%, with a true positive rate of 58.8% in predicting necrosis and 90.7% for predicting tumor progression. The area under the curve for the prediction model was 0.79. Conclusion: These delta radiomics features extracted from MR scans showed potential for distinguishing radiation necrosis from tumor progression. This tool may be a useful, noninvasive means of determining the status of an enlarging lesion after radiosurgery, aiding decision-making regarding surgical resection versus conservative medical management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-207B-02: A Bayesian Network Approach for Joint Prediction of Tumor Control and Radiation Pneumonitis (RP) in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Purpose: NSCLC radiotherapy treatment is a trade-off between controlling the tumor while limiting radiation-induced toxicities. Here we identify hierarchical biophysical relationships that could simultaneously influence both local control (LC) and RP by using an integrated Bayesian Networks (BN) approach. Methods: We studied 79 NSCLC patients treated on prospective protocol with 56 cases of LC and 21 events of RP. Beyond dosimetric information, each patient had 193 features including 12 clinical factors, 60 circulating blood cytokines before and during radiotherapy, 62 microRNAs, and 59 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The most relevant biophysical predictors for both LC and RP were identified using a Markov blanket local discovery algorithm and the corresponding BN was constructed using a score-learning algorithm. The area under the free-response receiver operating characteristics (AU-FROC) was used for performance evaluation. Cross-validation was employed to guard against overfitting pitfalls. Results: A BN revealing the biophysical interrelationships jointly in terms of LC and RP was developed and evaluated. The integrated BN included two SNPs, one microRNA, one clinical factor, three pre-treatment cytokines, relative changes of two cytokines between pre and during-treatment, and gEUDs of the GTV (a=-20) and lung (a=1). On cross-validation, the AUC prediction of independent LC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75–0.95) and RP was 0.83 (0.73–0.92). The AU-FROC of the integrated BN to predict both LC/RP was 0.81 (0.71–0.90) based on 2000 stratified bootstrap, indicating minimal loss in joint prediction power. Conclusions: We developed a new approach for multiple outcome utility application in radiotherapy based on integrated BN techniques. The BN developed from large-scale retrospective data is able to simultaneously predict LC and RP in NSCLC treatments based on individual patient characteristics. The joint prediction is only slightly compromised compared to independent predictions. Our approach shows promise for use in clinical decision support system for personalized radiotherapy subject to multiple endpoints. These studies were supported by a grant from the NCI/NIH P01-CA59827.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Poster - 51: A tumor motion-compensating system with tracking and prediction – a proof-of-concept study

Purpose: This work reports on the development of a mechanical slider system for the counter-steering of tumor motion in adaptive Radiation Therapy (RT). The tumor motion was tracked using a weighted optical flow algorithm and its position is being predicted with a neural network (NN). Methods: The components of the proposed mechanical counter-steering system includes: (1) an actuator which provides the tumor motion, (2) the motion detection using an optical flow algorithm, (3) motion prediction using a neural network, (4) a control module and (5) a mechanical slider to counter-steer the anticipated motion of the tumor phantom. An asymmetrical cosine function and five patient traces (P1–P5) were used to evaluate the tracking of a 3D printed lung tumor. In the proposed mechanical counter-steering system, both actuator (Zaber NA14D60) and slider (Zaber A-BLQ0070-E01) were programed to move independently with LabVIEW and their positions were recorded by 2 potentiometers (ETI LCP12S-25). The accuracy of this counter-steering system is given by the difference between the two potentiometers. Results: The inherent accuracy of the system, measured using the cosine function, is −0.15 ± 0.06 mm. While the errors when tracking and prediction were included, is (0.04 ± 0.71) mm. Conclusion: A prototype tumor motion counter-steering system with tracking and prediction was implemented. The inherent errors are small in comparison to the tracking and prediction errors, which in turn are small in comparison to the magnitude of tumor motion. The results show that this system is suited for evaluating RT tracking and prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using machine learning to predict antimicrobial MICs and associated genomic features for nontyphoidal Salmonella

Nontyphoidal Salmonella species are the leading bacterial cause of food-borne disease in the United States. Whole genome sequences and paired antimicrobial susceptibility data are available for Salmonella strains because of surveillance efforts from public health agencies. In this study, a collection of 5,278 nontyphoidal Salmonella genomes, collected over 15 years in the United States, were used to generate XGBoost-based machine learning models for predicting minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for 15 antibiotics. The MIC prediction models have an overall average accuracy of 95% within ± 1 two-fold dilution step (confidence interval of 95-95%), an average very major error rate of 2.7% (confidence interval of 2.4-3.0%) and an average major error rate of 0.1% (confidence interval of 0.1-0.2%). The model predicts MICs with no a priori information about the underlying gene content or resistance phenotypes of the strains. By selecting diverse genomes for training sets, we show that highly accurate MIC prediction models can be generated with fewer than 500 genomes. We also show that our approach for predicting MICs is stable over time despite annual fluctuations in antimicrobial resistance gene content in the sampled genomes. Finally, using feature selection, we explore the important genomic regions identified by the models for predicting MICs. To date, this is one of the largest MIC modeling studies to be published. Furthermore, our strategy for developing whole genome sequence-based models for surveillance and clinical diagnostics can be readily applied to other important human pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Extending the predictive power of perturbative QCD

The predictive power of perturbative QCD (pQCD) depends on two important issues: (1) how to eliminate the renormalization scheme-and-scale ambiguities at fixed order, and (2) how to reliably estimate the contributions of unknown higher-order terms using information from the known pQCD series. The Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC) satisfies all of the principles of the renormalization group and eliminates the scheme-and-scale ambiguities by the recursive use of the renormalization group equation to determine the scale of the QCD running coupling αs at each order. Moreover, the resulting PMC predictions are independent of the choice of the renormalization scheme, satisfying the key principle of renormalization group invariance. In this paper, we show that by using the conformal series derived using the PMC single-scale procedure, in combination with the Padé Approximation Approach (PAA), one can achieve quantitatively useful estimates for the unknown higher-order terms from the known perturbative series. We illustrate this procedure for three hadronic observables R e + e – , R τ , and Γ( H → bb¯) which are each known to 4 loops in pQCD. We show that if the PMC prediction for the conformal series for an observable (of leading order α p s ) has been determined at order αns, then the [ ] = [0/n–p] Padé series provides quantitatively useful predictions for the higher-order terms. We also show that the PMC + PAA predictions agree at all orders with the fundamental, scheme-independent Generalized Crewther relations which connect observables, such as deep inelastic neutrino-nucleon scattering, to hadronic e + e – annihilation. Furthermore, by using the combination of the PMC series and the Padé method, the predictive power of pQCD theory can be greatly improved.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

COMPASS: A Framework for Automated Performance Modeling and Prediction

Flexible, accurate performance predictions offer numerous benefits such as gaining insight into and optimizing applications and architectures. However, the development and evaluation of such performance predictions has been a major research challenge, due to the architectural complexities. To address this challenge, we have designed and implemented a prototype system, named COMPASS, for automated performance model generation and prediction. COMPASS generates a structured performance model from the target application's source code using automated static analysis, and then, it evaluates this model using various performance prediction techniques. As we demonstrate on several applications, the results of these predictions can be used for a variety of purposes, such as design space exploration, identifying performance tradeoffs for applications, and understanding sensitivities of important parameters. COMPASS can generate these predictions across several types of applications from traditional, sequential CPU applications to GPU-based, heterogeneous, parallel applications. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates a maximum overhead of 4%, flexibility to generate models for 9 applications, speed, ease of creation, and very low relative errors across a diverse set of architectures.

Lee, Seyong↗
DOE OSTI2019

A sequential DNN based Baseline Energy Prediction Framework with Long term Error Mitigation

In this paper,we aim to present a novel sequential framework containing two deep network architectures for baseline energy prediction, applied to a simulated commercial building dataset. We have observed that this sequential framework helps to improve long term prediction accuracy, there by mitigating prediction error accumulation over time. The proposed framework utilizes convolution layers to extract features from the input data space without changing spatial relations between variables. These features are memorized by tensor train based gated recurrent units for an accurate long-term prediction. Although, architecture comprising the amalgamation of convolution layers and memory cell have shown promising results in domains such as social media analysis, language modeling, video frame prediction and image recognition, this paper extends its scope to the context of energy applications. Furthermore, the addition of tensor train based gated recurrent units is motivated by the necessity of computational time reduction during the training process, there by making this framework more suitable for future in-field deployment. Lastly, results show the current framework outperforms other existing machine learning based methods, in both short-term and long-term prediction categories.

Chakraborty, Indrasis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model

This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to ~0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

G4Boost: a machine learning-based tool for quadruplex identification and stability prediction

Background: G-quadruplexes (G4s), formed within guanine-rich nucleic acids, are secondary structures involved in important biological processes. Although every G4 motif has the potential to form a stable G4 structure, not every G4 motif would, and accurate energy-based methods are needed to assess their structural stability. Here, we present a decision tree-based prediction tool, G4Boost, to identify G4 motifs and predict their secondary structure folding probability and thermodynamic stability based on their sequences, nucleotide compositions, and estimated structural topologies. Results: G4Boost predicted the quadruplex folding state with an accuracy greater then 93% and an F1-score of 0.96, and the folding energy with an RMSE of 4.28 and R 2 of 0.95 only by the means of sequence intrinsic feature. G4Boost was successfully applied and validated to predict the stability of experimentally-determined G4 structures, including for plants and humans. Conclusion: G4Boost outperformed the three machine-learning based prediction tools, DeepG4, Quadron, and G4RNA Screener, in terms of both accuracy and F1-score, and can be highly useful for G4 prediction to understand gene regulation across species including plants and humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proteome-scale Structure Prediction Data - Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii

The number of proteins predicted for Pseudodesulfovibrio mercurii is 3,446, each of which have five predicted structures from an AlphaFold run, as well as structural alignment results using the TMscore-based structural alignment method within the APoc program. Specifically, AlphaFold outputs the atoms and coordinates of the protein model in human-readable PDB files and quantitative prediction metrics in Python PICKLE files. The 5 models have been ranked based on the predicted TM-score (pTMS), a quantitative confidence metric output by AlphaFold that reports on protein model quality. The top ranked model has undergone an energy minimization calculation to relax and remove any potential clashes in the atomic coordinates. Structural alignment results are stored in two files for each protein; the top ranked model (as discussed above) is used for all alignment analyses. Both are compressed gzip files that, once unpacked, are human readable. The first file is the TMalign score results and contains the quantitative metrics for the top alignments between the predicted structure and experimental structures from the PDB70, a curated non-redundant database of about 80,000 experimental structures developed by the Soding lab. Each data point in this file is directly associated with one experimental structure; PDB ID and brief meta-data about the protein taken from the PDB70 file are reported alongside the quantitative metrics. The second results file contains the raw results associated with each alignment reported in the score results file. Specifically, the translation and rotation arrays for each alignment are provided so that the structural alignment can be recreated. Additionally, residue-level scores are reported to quantify the closeness of the aligned residues between the predicted and experimental models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Engineering Tools for Injection-Molded Long-Carbon-Fiber Thermoplastic Composites - Second FY 2015 Quarterly Report

During the second quarter of FY 2015, the following technical progress has been made toward project milestones: 1) Autodesk reviewed 3D fiber orientation distribution (FOD) comparisons and provided support on improving accuracy. 2) Autodesk reviewed fiber length distribution (FLD) data comparisons and provided suggestions, assisted PNNL in FOD and FLD parameter settings optimization, and advised PNNL on appropriate through thickness thermal conductivity for improved frozen layer effect on FOD predictions. Autodesk also participated in project review meetings including preparations and discussions towards passing the go/no-go decision point. 3) Autodesk implemented an improved FOD inlet profile specification method through the part thickness for 3D meshes and provided an updated ASMI research version to PNNL. 4) The University of Illinois (Prof. C.L. Tucker) provided Autodesk with ideas to improve fiber orientation modeling 5) Purdue University re-measured fiber orientation for the fast-fill 50wt% LCF/PA66 edge-gated plaque, and delivered the fiber orientation data for this plaque at the selected locations (named A, B, and C, Figure 1) to PNNL. Purdue also re-measured fiber orientation for locations A on the fast-fill 30wt% LCF/PP and 50wt% LCF/PA66 center-gated plaques, which exhibited anomalous fiber orientation behavior. 6) Purdue University conducted fiber length measurements and delivered the length data to PNNL for the purge materials (slow-fill 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 purge materials) and PlastiComp plaques selected on the go/no-go list for fiber length model validation (i.e., slow-fill edge-gated 30wt% LCF/PP and 30wt% LCF/PA66 plaques, Locations A, B, and C). 7) PNNL developed a method to recover intact carbon fibers from LCF/PA66 materials. Isolated fibers were shipped to Purdue for length distribution analysis. 8) PNNL completed ASMI mid-plane analyses for all the PlastiComp plaques defined on the go/no-go list for fiber orientation (FO) model validation and compared the predicted fiber orientations with the measured data provided by Purdue at Locations A, B, and C on these plaques. The 15% accuracy criterion based on evaluation of tensile and bending stiffness was used to assess the accuracy in fiber orientation predictions. 9) PNNL completed ASMI mid-plane analyses for all the PlastiComp plaques defined on the go/no-go list for fiber length distribution (FLD) model validation and compared the predicted length distributions with the measured data provided by Purdue at Locations A, B, and C on these plaques. The 15% accuracy criterion based on evaluation of tensile and bending stiffness was used to assess the accuracy in fiber orientation predictions. 10) PNNL tested the new ASMI version received from Autodesk in March 2015, examined and discussed 3D fiber orientation predictions for PlastiComp plaques. 11) PlastiComp, Inc. (PlastiComp), Toyota Research Institute North America (Toyota) and Magna Exteriors and Interiors Corporation (Magna) participated in discussions with team members on the go/no-go plan. Toyota continued the discussion with Magna on tool modification for molding the complex part in order to achieve the target fiber length in the part.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification and Comparison of Weld Residual Stress Measurements and Predictions.

In pressurized water reactors, the prevention, detection, and repair of cracks within dissimilar metal welds is essential to ensure proper plant functionality and safety. Weld residual stresses, which are difficult to model and cannot be directly measured, contribute to the formation and growth of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking. Additionally, the uncertainty in weld residual stress measurements and modeling predictions is not well understood, further complicating the prediction of crack evolution. The purpose of this document is to develop methodology to quantify the uncertainty associated with weld residual stress that can be applied to modeling predictions and experimental measurements. Ultimately, the results can be used to assess the current state of uncertainty and to build confidence in both modeling and experimental procedures. The methodology consists of statistically modeling the variation in the weld residual stress profiles using functional data analysis techniques. Uncertainty is quantified using statistical bounds (e.g. confidence and tolerance bounds) constructed with a semi-parametric bootstrap procedure. Such bounds describe the range in which quantities of interest, such as means, are expected to lie as evidenced by the data. The methodology is extended to provide direct comparisons between experimental measurements and modeling predictions by constructing statistical confidence bounds for the average difference between the two quantities. The statistical bounds on the average difference can be used to assess the level of agreement between measurements and predictions. The methodology is applied to experimental measurements of residual stress obtained using two strain relief measurement methods and predictions from seven finite element models developed by different organizations during a round robin study.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗