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The data base used in solar and ionospheric prediction services is described. Present prediction techniques are discussed and compared with actual observations. Future prediction techniques using computers are also discussed.
Solar activity prediction procedures used at the Peking Observatory are briefly reviewed. Methods for short term prediction of solar proton events and the results for proton events of importance greater than 1 during the period 1974-1977 are given in detail. The characteristic values of solar cycle 21 are predicted.
The present status of low energy magnetospheric plasma interactions with space systems is reviewed. The role of predictions in meeting user needs in assessing the impact of such interactions is described. In light of the perceived needs of the user community and of the current status of modeling and prediction efforts, it is suggested that for most user needs more detailed statistical models of the low energy environment are required. In order to meet current prediction requirements, real-time in situ measurements are proposed as a near-term solution.
Three new and independent methods of predicting the magnitude of a forthcoming sunspot maximum are suggested. The longest lead time is given by the first method, which is based on a terrestrial parameter measured during the declining phase of the preceding cycle. The second method, with only a slightly shorter foreknowledge, is based on an interplanetary parameter derived around the commencement of the cycle in question (sunspot minimum). The third method, giving the shortest prediction lead-time, is based entirely on solar parameters measured during the initial progress of the cycle in question. Application of all three methods to forecast the magnitude of the next maximum (Cycle 21) agree in predicting that it is likely to be very similar to that of Cycle 18.
A simple model of magnetic flux transfer is reviewed along with empirical expressions for flux transfer rates based upon the auroral AL index and the eastward component of the interplanetary electric field. It is shown that the magnitude of the time integral of the AL index over isolated intervals of geomagnetic disturbance can be predicted from the the observed flux of southward interplanetary magnetic field lines incident on the front of the magnetosphere. Difficulties in the quantitative prediction of substorm onset time and intensity are discussed and magnetospheric stress index on both solar wind and ground based observations is proposed for this purpose. Finally, caveats concerning the use of both the AL index and interplanetary medium data in predicting the response of the magnetosphere to solar wind conditions are considered.
The prediction of fluxes of energetic particles of solar or magnetospheric origin is addressed. Topics include the prediction of the properties of the particle populations generated by magnetospheric storms and substorms, and the prediction of long term variations in the populations of magnetospheric particles.
Acoustic characteristics predicted using a recently developed computer code were correlated with measured acoustic data for two helicopter rotors. The analysis, is based on a solution of the Ffowcs-Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) equation and includes terms accounting for both the thickness and loading components of the rotational noise. Computations are carried out in the time domain and assume free field conditions. Results of the correlation show that the Farrassat/Nystrom analysis, when using predicted airload data as input, yields fair but encouraging correlation for the first 6 harmonics of blade passage. It also suggests that although the analysis represents a valuable first step towards developing a truly comprehensive helicopter rotor noise prediction capability, further work remains to be done identifying and incorporating additional noise mechanisms into the code.
The method of Strainrange Partitioning is used to predict the cyclic lives of the Metal Properties Council's long time creep-fatigue interspersion tests of several steel alloys. Comparisons are made with predictions based upon the Time- and Cycle-Fraction approach. The method of Strainrange Partitioning is shown to give consistently more accurate predictions of cyclic life than is given by the Time- and Cycle-Fraction approach.
The work presents a method for predicting jet mixing and shock noise spectra from coannular plug nozzles operated in the inverted velocity profile mode. It is shown that the jet mixing noise prediction method is based on the physics of the flow and its noise radiating characteristics, modeling the source spectrum, eddy convection, and fluid shrouding in a simplistic fashion. Further, the shock noise prediction procedure is described, noting that it is an extension of the Fisher-Harper-Bourne method for conical nozzles. Finally, it is concluded that the method has the potential of being extended to suppressors of complex geometries.
A viscous-inviscid interaction algorithm is developed for prediction of two-dimensional mean and fluctuating velocity distributions in the wake immediately downstream of an airfoil trailing edge. A composite pressure field is defined, and a Poisson equation solved for transverse pressure variations. A parabolized form of the time-averaged steady Navier-Stokes equations are solved in conjunction with a viscous-augmented two-dimensional inviscid potential flow analysis. A tensor constitutive equation is employed to predict Reynolds stress distributions from solutions of a turbulence kinetic energy two equation closure model. Numerical predictions compared favorably with detailed experimental data for mean and fluctuating velocities, and Reynolds shear stress distributions, in the trailing edge region of a NACA 63-012 airfoil.
Attempts to predict surface pressure distributions on lifting surfaces have been relatively unsuccessful in the transonic regime when the shock wave is of sufficient strength to produce an extensive region of turbulent separated flow. For these conditions, the viscous flow behavior must be accurately described even to obtain reasonable predictions of surface pressure. The present paper addresses this problem. Detailed comparisons between prediction and experiment are made for a transonic, turbulent boundary-layer separation (freestream Mach number = 0.875) for which the turbulent flow properties (including the turbulent Reynolds stress) had been measured by the laser velocimeter technique from upstream of the separated region through reattachment. The flow was generated on an axisymmetric 'bump' model designed to simulate the flow on an airfoil at transonic conditions. The numerical methods used in the comparisons include the solution of the time-dependent, mass-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, and the solution of the compressible boundary-layer equations by the inverse method. Solutions were obtained for the well established Cebeci-Smith algebraic turbulence model and the more recently developed Wilcox-Rubesin two-equation turbulence model.
A new model is presented for the prediction of attenuation by rain on either terrestrial or slant earth-to-space propagation paths. The model was developed using geophysical observations of the statistics of point rain rate, of the horizontal structure of rainfall, and of the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere. The model was tested by comparison with attenuation distribution observations. The results show excellent agreement; the observations differ from model predictions by less than the rms deviations predicted by the model.
Results are presented from a study to define and evaluate the data base for predicting an airframe/propulsion system interference effect shown to be of considerable importance, inlet external drag. The study is focused on supersonic tactical aircraft with highly integrated jet propulsion systems, although some information is included for supersonic strategic aircraft and for transport aircraft designed for high subsonic or low supersonic cruise. The data base for inlet external drag is considered to consist of the theoretical and empirical prediction methods as well as the experimental data identified in an extensive literature search. The state of the art in the subsonic and transonic speed regimes is evaluated. The experimental data base is organized and presented in a series of tables in which the test article, the quantities measured and the ranges of test conditions covered are described for each set of data; in this way, the breadth of coverage and gaps in the existing experimental data are evident. Prediction methods are categorized by method of solution, type of inlet and speed range to which they apply, major features are given, and their accuracy is assessed by means of comparison to experimental data.
An empirical response function model was developed for ammonium perchlorate propellants to supplant T-burner testing at the preliminary design stage. The model was developed by fitting a limited T-burner data base, in terms of oxidizer size and concentration, to an analytical two parameter response function expression. Multiple peaks are predicted, but the primary effect is of a single peak for most formulations, with notable bulges for the various AP size fractions. The model was extended to velocity coupling with the assumption that dynamic response was controlled primarily by the solid phase described by the two parameter model. The magnitude of velocity coupling was then scaled using an erosive burning law. Routine use of the model for stability predictions on a number of propulsion units indicates that the model tends to overpredict propellant response. It is concluded that the model represents a generally conservative prediction tool, suited especially for the preliminary design stage when T-burner data may not be readily available. The model work included development of a rigorous summation technique for pseudopropellant properties and of a concept for modeling ordered packing of particulates.
An existing analytical crack closure model was used to study crack growth under various load histories. The model was based on a concept like the Dugdale model, but modified to leave plastically deformed material in the wake of the advancing crack tip. The model was used to correlate crack growth rates under constant amplitude loading, and to predict crack growth under variable amplitude and aircraft spectrum loading on 2219-T851 aluminum alloy sheet material. The predicted crack growth lives agreed well with experimental data. For 80 crack growth tests subjected to various load histories, the ratio of predicted-to-experimental lives (N(P)/n(T)) ranged from 0.5 to 1.8. The mean value of N(P)/N(T) was 0.97 and the standard deviation was 0.27.
Calculated engine core noise levels, based on NASA-Lewis prediction procedures, for five representative helicopter engines are compared with measured total helicopter noise levels and proposed FAA helicopter noise certification requirements. Comparisons are made for level flyover and approach procedures. The measured noise levels are generally significantly greater than those predicted for the core noise levels, except for Sikorsky S-61 and S-64 helicopters. However, the predicted engine core noise levels are generally at or within 3 db of the proposed FAA noise rules. Consequently, helicopter engine core noise can be a significant contributor to the overall helicopter noise signature and, at this time, will provide a limiting floor to a further decrease in future noise regulations.
A state-of-the-art 6-V battery module in current use by the electric vehicle industry was tested at the NASA Lewis Research Center to determine its performance characteristics under the SAE J227a driving schedules B, C, and D. The primary objective of the tests was to determine the effects of periods of recuperation and long and short periods of electrical regeneration in improving the performance of the battery module and hence extendng the vehicle range. A secondary objective was to formulate a computer program that would predict the performance of this battery module for the above driving schedules. The results show excellent correlation between the laboratory tests and predicted results. The predicted performance compared with laboratory tests was within +2.4 to -3.7 percent for the D schedule, +0.5 to -7.1 percent for the C schedule, and better than -11.4 percent for the B schedule.
The AEROX aerodynamic computer program which provides accurate predictions of induced drag and trim drag for the full angle of attack range and for Mach numbers from 0.4 to 3.0 is described. This capability is demonstrated comparing flight test data and AEROX predictions for 17 different tactical aircraft. Values of minimum (skin friction, pressure, and zero lift wave) drag coefficients and lift coefficient offset due to camber (when required) were input from the flight test data to produce total lift and drag curves. The comparisons of trimmed lift drag polars show excellent agreement between the AEROX predictions and the in flight measurements.