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DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bioinspired mineralizing microenvironments generated by liquid-liquid phase coexistence

Biominerals such as bones, teeth and shells exhibit improved mechanical properties and intricate morphologies not seen in nonbiologically-produced minerals of ostensibly the same composition. These remarkable properties of biogenic minerals are thought to arise due to precise local control over the mineral deposition process, including organic and inorganic inclusions. Understanding how Biology controls the local reaction environment during formation of these materials to control their composition, structure, and properties is a grand challenge that promises to enable new routes to high-performance materials. This project developed multi-compartment bioinspired microreactors as artificial mineralizing vesicles, and used them to understand and control formation of inorganic/organic composite solid materials. A major emphasis was on developing all-aqueous emulsions in which each droplet was a structured microreactor with two or more adjacent phases. This approach provided local control over reaction environment including availability of inclusions such as polypeptides and metal ions, while being sufficiently simple to produce large populations of essentially identical multiphase reactor droplets simultaneously within a batch. Organic/inorganic composite materials could be produced with very high organic content that stabilized the inorganic portions as amorphous materials (e.g., amorphous calcium carbonate) by preventing the typical conversion to more thermodynamically crystalline forms (e.g., calcite). These stabilized amorphous composites could be stored indefinitely and converted to crystalline forms later by removal of the organic inclusions via, for example, heating. Compositional gradients in the organic and inorganic components were embedded during synthesis due to the evolution of the reaction microenvironment, and despite the complexity of this process it occurred similarly across the population of reactive droplets and was hence encoded into the population of resulting composite particles. The approach developed here allows pre-structuring of reactive microenvironments to control the spatiotemporal reaction environment, which is an important step towards rational design and on-demand production of complex functional materials with desired composition, optical properties, and mechanical response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2021 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on data for roughly 1.9 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2019, representing 82% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: Solar adopters generally skew towards higher incomes, though that trend continues to diminish over time. Solar adopter incomes vary considerably and encompass many low-to-moderate income (LMI) households. Solar-adopter incomes are consistently higher for systems paired with battery storage, for host-owned systems, and for systems installed on single-family homes. Solar adopters differ from the broader U.S. population in terms of a variety of other demographic and socioeconomic measures. State-level comparisons indicate that solar-adopters tend to live in neighborhoods with relatively high non-Hispanic White and Asian populations, and with relatively low Hispanic and Black populations. In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater

The detection of SARS-CoV-2 cases throughout the pandemic has been based on individual testing, which is subject to inaccuracies in what is actually occurring within the local population. Wastewater biosurveillance has been used around the world to detect the presence of drugs, viruses, and other chemicals present in a population. Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 implies that wastewater can be analyzed in order to detect varying levels of the virus within a given community. This analysis can show the fluctuation of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level over time. In this experiment, the amount of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater sample was compared to the amount of Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) detected in the same sample. PMMoV is present consistently in human fecal matter, and can be used to normalize the amount of SARS-CoV-2 detected in wastewater.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Syntrophic Co-Cultures of Clostridium Organisms to Produce Higher Alcohols & Other C6-C8 Metabolites (Final Report)

The goal of this project was to advance the systems biology understanding and predictive modeling of synthetic & syntrophic Clostridium microbial consortia, focusing on elucidation of metabolic networks and environmental signals in the consortia. The project has direct applicability to lignocellulosic-biomass based production of higher alcohols as advanced biofuels and C6-C8 metabolites, that can be used as chemicals or serve as biofuel precursors. This project studied and optimized three synthetic syntrophic systems. It examined the population dynamics using flow-cytometry, time-lapse microscopy and PCR analysis. 13C-based tracer analyses was used to examine the metabolite exchange between the syntrophic cell populations and the impact of those interactions on the transcriptome of the individual populations. To enhance our analytical and predictive capabilities, genome-scale models (GSMs) for these syntrophies was developed. RNAseq data for these syntrophic coculture systems were acquired to enable a molecular level understanding of the syntrophies aiming to identify the genetic networks of each organism in the co-culture and compare those against the networks of pure cultures.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fort Erie On-Demand Transit Case Study

Rural and smaller-sized communities in North America face unique mobility challenges due to their low population density, lower public transit spending per capita compared to major cities, and a high reliance on private vehicles. In recent years, communities such as Fort Erie, Ontario have restructured or advanced their public transit systems using on-demand services. Fort Erie is a relatively sparsely populated region of 32,901 residents, spread across a land area of 166 square kilometers (64 square miles), for an average population density of 193 residents per square kilometer (500 per square mile). In October 2021, the town implemented a mobility-on-demand system integrated with smartphone software to replace its fixed-route community bus system, which consisted of four buses with three routes, each with a roughly one-hour, one way loop. The new service utilizes a fleet of six minivans, two of which are retrofitted with wheelchair-accessible ramps. The system may require that a passenger requesting a standard van walk up to 400 meters (a quarter mile) to their pickup location to optimize vehicle routing while providing origin-to-destination service. The on-demand system proved effective in providing service, eclipsing pre-pandemic ridership by 40%, decreasing greenhouse gas emissions per ride by 63%, and decreasing the cost per ride to the town by 29%. This report documents both the previous system and the new system in terms of routes, ridership, costs, fuel, and other notable system parameters. This work is part of an ongoing series of case studies on providing small communities with on-demand, right-sized vehicle service coupled with a smartphone application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

COVID-19 Lead Time: Evaluating the timeliness and reliability of reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators of hospitalizations and death in the US

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a reliance on real-time data sources to understand the global spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Reported cases were presumed leading indicators for hospitalizations, while hospitalizations were considered predictive of deaths. However, studies have questioned the consistency of reported cases as leading indicators. This study systematically assesses the reliability of United States (US) reported cases and hospitalizations as leading indicators for hospitalizations and deaths respectively, examining the first 2.5 years of the pandemic (January 2020 - June 2022) across different phases of the pandemic and states. Using correlation analysis, population data, and forecasting accuracy measures, we investigate the temporal relationships and identify possible determinants of lead time variability. Notably, we found that the average lead time between reported cases and hospitalizations across US states is relatively short at 1.76 days, implying that reported cases might not be as effective a leading indicator for hospitalizations as previously believed. Populations with higher comorbidity burdens, such as proportion of smokers, are expected on average to have shorter lead times, possibly due to shorter time to hospitalization among these vulnerable populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Defect Production and Microstructural Feature Impact for Radiation Damage in Additively Manufactured 316 Stainless Steel

This milestone presents multi-scale modeling research results for additively manufactured 316 stainless steel. A combination of phase field, cluster dynamics, molecular dynamics, and density functional theory with machine learning is used, allowing for predictions of radiation-driven microstructural evolution in additively manufactured 316 stainless steel over a range of temperatures, damage rates, neutron spectra, and microstructures, and supporting the development of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material qualification. Informed by ion irradiation and neutron irradiation results across the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program, we investigate the unique aspects of radiation-driven microstructure evolution in additively manufactured 316 stainless steel. In particular, we focus on understanding the impact of carbon concentration (varying, for example, between the 316L and 316H standards) on void formation; radiation-induced segregation at dislocation cells and grain boundaries; and the evolution of dislocation loops and network dislocation populations. We find that the unique characteristics of the additively manufactured microstructures must be accounted for in understanding the evolution of dislocation populations under thermal and irradiation conditions, such as the variation in sink strengths arising due to the variation in dislocation density. We also find that the radiation-induced segregation of Cr and Ni to grain boundaries and cell walls differs due to the differences in their defect sink biases. We also find that increasing the Ni content can slow vacancy diffusion, which may provide a mechanism for the observed reduction in transient swelling rate for austenitic Fe-Cr-Ni alloys with increasing Ni content. In addition, ion irradiations have shown that increasing carbon content in 316 SS results in a larger population of smaller voids, suggesting reduced vacancy diffusion. Our results show that the carbon content of additively manufactured 316 SS has a significant impact on the migration rate of defect clusters. The presence of carbon atoms results in carbon-vacancy trapping, significantly reducing the diffusion rate of vacancies. Carbon atoms may also be trapped near the surface of a void, which may reduce void growth by trapping vacancies that diffuse toward the void.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Energy Codes Gap Analysis Field Study in the Southwest (Final Technical Report)

The primary goal of the “An Energy Codes Gap Analysis Field Study in the Southwest” project was to improve housing through strengthened building energy code implementation in two states, Colorado and Nevada, leading to greater energy and utility bill savings for households. Colorado is a home rule state. Nevada adopts a statewide code, but cities and counties must also adopt the code, making the state function like a home rule state. To broaden the impact of the project, an additional goal was to share and amplify project experiences, findings, and lessons that can be applied in other states. To achieve these goals, the project’s key objectives were to examine how residential energy codes are implemented in partner states; to use these findings to strengthen codes implementation through enhanced education, training, and outreach; and to enhance energy code technical assistance capabilities in the two partner states. In both partner states, the project led to the creation of a quantitative baseline understanding of compliance with high-impact energy code requirements, such as foundation, wall, and ceiling R-value; window U-factor and SHGC; envelope air tightness; duct tightness; and high-efficiency lighting. It then applied this baseline information to directly inform training in geographic areas with high levels of building and construction activity. The project has placed Colorado and Nevada among 23 states across the country that have conducted a single-family residential field study based on the established U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) methodology since 2014. It has also helped each State Energy Office test models for partnership- and relationship-building among government agencies and key stakeholder groups, including the State Energy Office and relevant code administration and professional licensing agencies, building officials, designers, builders, trades and utilities. At the national level, the project helped educate and inform State and Territory Energy Offices on a replicable methodology to assess energy code construction practices, effective stakeholder engagement strategies, and tailored energy code education and training. These findings are particularly pertinent for home-rule states, such as Colorado and Nevada, which rely on local government awareness and action to advance and implement building energy codes. By raising awareness of code adoption and compliance, this project has helped to equip each partner state with data on code compliance, strategies, education, and partnership models to advance building energy codes. This in turn will have an important impact on new construction practices in Colorado and Nevada, leading to more energy efficient and affordable housing. Currently, more than 62 percent of Colorado’s population lives in one of the 55 jurisdictions that have adopted the 2021 IECC to date, while nearly 95 percent of the state's population lives in one of the 208 jurisdictions that have adopted a code at 2015 IECC levels or higher. In Nevada, the 2018 IECC was adopted by the Governor’s Office of Energy in July 2018. By July 2020, 47 percent of the adopted energy code in the state was 2018 IECC which covers 96.5 percent of Nevada’s population. The training materials funded by this project focus on the 2021 IECC and will continue to be relevant in the two states as additional jurisdictions update their building energy codes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of Mechanistic Fission Gas Release and Swelling Models for UN Fuels in BISON

This report describes the work in NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) to develop a mechanistic fission gas model for uranium nitride fuels in BISON. The existing Sifgrs (Simple integrated fission gas release and swelling) model tracks the average properties of two bubble populations in the bulk and at the grain boundaries. It was recognized that dislocations play a crucial role in the fission gas swelling of UN, and an irradiation-induced dislocation density model was needed, as well as a model describing how fission gas interacts with dislocations creating a third population of bubbles along dislocations. A mechanistic model that tracks dislocation bubbles was implemented in Sifgrs. This model was used to simulate fission gas swelling and release in UN. Lower-length-scale calculations and experimental observations from carbide fuel were leveraged to help populate the model with essential parameters. As a placeholder, an empirical function was formulated for the evolution of the dislocation network. Because of the difference in evolution of this network at different temperatures, the dislocation bubbles are able to capture behavior that the bulk intragranular bubbles cannot. It was found that the bulk bubbles dominate microscopic swelling at low temperatures, and the dislocation bubbles dominate at higher temperatures. Based on this model, the transition between the two bubble types is the main factor behind the breakaway swelling phenomenon in UN. In order to test the model, a couple of assessments were run. For the lower temperature JOYO pins, the model produces reasonable fission gas release and swelling values. For the higher temperature SP1 pin, the model dramatically underestimates the fission gas release. This issue is attributed to the gas being trapped inside dislocation bubbles, unable to escape to grain boundaries to cause fission gas release, and could be remedied by a mechanistic dislocation model that allows the dislocation density to decrease at very high temperatures. A preliminary mechanistic dislocation model was developed supported by first-principle calculations. These calculations provided valuable insight into how interstitial defects cluster in UN in the {110} orientation, and may eventually form dislocation loops, leading to the conclusion that dislocation loops may nucleate from these clusters. An estimate of the dislocation line energy in UN was obtained and will be improved in future work. The free-energy cluster dynamics code Centipede was used to track interstitial and vacancy absorption at dislocation loops and calculate their growth. In addition, improvements to Centipede were made including new convergence criteria for transient simulations and sink driving force updates.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd on Hanford for Calendar Years 2019-2024

Biologists first documented elk on the Hanford Site in 1972; since then, the elk herd known as the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd (RHEH) has grown substantially (PNNL-13331, Population Characteristics and Seasonal Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd: Status Report 2000). Through the 1990s, the core range of the RHEH was focused on the portion of the Hanford Reach National Monument known as the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve. More recently, larger numbers of elk have been occupying the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office (HFO), formerly the DOE, Richland Operations Office managed portion- of the Hanford Site, known as central Hanford (Figure 1-1). This began with bachelor groups of bulls occupying the site intermittently, and the herd has grown to resident herds, including bulls, cows, and calves. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) established a target herd size for the RHEH of less than 350 animals to minimize damages on adjacent private agricultural lands (Washington State Elk Herd Plan–Yakima Elk Herd [WDFW 2002]). Attempts to control the RHEH population through hunting on private lands and a relocation effort during 2000 have failed to limit growth of the population toward the WDFW target, and the herd exceeds 1,600 according to recent counts (PNNL-13331; DOE/RL- 2023-20, Hanford Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022). Although elk are present on central Hanford year-round, they continue to move between areas offsite, the ALE Reserve, and central Hanford throughout the year, and it is these movements that result in many of the elk-vehicle collisions (EVC) that occur along Hanford Site roads and on the Washington State highways bordering the site. In addition, changes in management strategies on the ALE Reserve, including recent and potential future tribal elk hunts, may alter herd behavior and result in additional animals transiting onto and off central Hanford.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2021

In 2021, a rare plant monitoring effort occurred on the portion of the Hanford Site (referred to herein as Central Hanford) managed by the U.S. Department of Energy Richland Operations Office (DOE-RL; Figure 1). The goal of this effort was to revisit known occurrences of upland rare plant populations on Central Hanford to improve baseline information on locations of rare plant populations on the Hanford Site. Additionally, population stability, viability, and threats were recorded and will be used to inform future management of rare plant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2016

In 2016, a rare plant monitoring effort occurred on the portion of the Hanford Site (referred to herein as Central Hanford) managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of this effort was to revisit known occurrences of upland rare plant populations on Central Hanford to improve baseline information on locations of rare plant populations on the Hanford Site. Additionally, population stability, viability, and threats were recorded and will be used to inform future management of rare plant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanford Site Rare Plant Monitoring Report for Calendar Year 2016

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Resolving the Risk of Turbine Collision on Fish: FY21-22 Seedling Report Phase I

The most important concern for permitting tidal and river turbines is the collision risk of marine animals with the turbine blades. Our understanding of the risk to individual fish from colliding with turbine blades is poor; if these collisions were to occur, it is unknown whether fish will sustain recoverable injuries or be killed. Equally unknown is the impact these collisions might have on populations, particularly for threatened, endangered, or commercially managed fish species. In addition to observations of interactions of fish with turbines, numerical models need to be developed or expanded to predict impacts on fish populations. These models could replace expensive and technically challenging monitoring programs in high energy, often murky, tidal or river waters. In this project, a multi-pronged approach was taken to understand the state of knowledge for collision risk of fish with turbines and build a pathway forward. This approach included a workshop with experts, a literature review of modeling and empirical studies, the development of a research framework, and the identification of case studies to address through future work. This project is a first step towards the future development of effective and robust numerical models for assessing the collision risk of fish around turbines. This will achieve a balanced and improved estimate of the severity of collision risk to fish at the population scale.

Garavelli, Lysel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Genome_shuffling_enables_quantitative_trait_locus_mapping_in_Bacillus_subtilis

Genetic mapping is a powerful tool for eukaryotic genetics that has only been applied to bacteria in limited circumstances. Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping generally relies on sexual recombination to break linkages between genes, yet bacteria rarely undergo sufficient homologous recombination to generate suitable mapping populations. In this work, we used iterative biparental genome shuffling by protoplast fusion inBacillus subtilisto generate a population of bacteria with substantial random recombination throughout their genomes. Individual shuffled progeny were arrayed in well plates, resequenced, and characterized for a range of complex phenotypes including spore germination and swarming motility. Genetic mapping of the resulting phenotypes identified high-confidence QTLs of moderate size (∼10 kb), and these associations were validated through targeted genetic swaps. ThisB. subtilisQTL population can easily be used to map additional phenotypes, and the general approach for QTL mapping is applicable in a wide range of bacteria.

Bacillus subtilis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparing Life Histories of the Shortest-Lived Turtle Known (Chicken Turtles, Deirochelys reticularia ) with Long-Lived Blanding's Turtles ( Emydoidea blandingii )

Evolutionary theories predict major differences in life-history trait values of long- and short-lived organisms. Such comparisons have not been possible for chelonians because no shortlived turtle was known until research revealed that chicken turtles (Deirochelys reticularia; DR) have a maximum longevity of 21 yrs. Life-history trait values of DR females are 1) age at maturity of females = 5–6 yrs; 2) clutches per season = 1.6; 3) annual fecundity = 6–8 female eggs per female; 4) average juvenile survivorship from age 1 to maturity = 0.60; and 5) low average annual adult survivorship = 0.66. We compared DR with the very long-lived Blanding’s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii; EB) in Michigan. Over 14 yrs with no mortality (the minimum age at maturity of EB), the maximum potential fecundity produced by a single female embryo and her mature female offspring was 5 female eggs for EB and 1040 eggs for DR. Comparisons of life table output for approximately stable populations of DR and EB resulted in cohort generation times of 7 and 37 yrs, respectively. The life-history prediction that short-lived organisms should produce smaller offspring was not supported. Average wet mass of eggs is 10 g (8.4–11.3 g) for DR and 12 g (10–14 g) for EB; and average wet mass of hatchlings is 7.3 g (6–9 g) for DR and 9.3 g (6–13 g) for EB. Both differences are smaller than expected based on the difference in longevity. Here, short-lived female DR have an unusual tactic of investing in high fecundity and making substantial body sizespecific investment in large eggs, which may reflect why juvenile survivorship had greater influence on population change rates than did adult survivorship. In contrast, adult survivorship had the greatest influence on population change rates of EB. Comparison of cohorts of 1000 female DR and EB hatchlings highlights the differences in life histories of short- and long-lived turtles: all DR would be dead by the time the last female EB had reached maturity at 21 yrs of age.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗