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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package, version 2: assessing aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions via field campaign and long-term observations

Abstract. Poor representations of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) in Earth system models (ESMs) have long been the largest uncertainties in predicting global climate change. Huge efforts have been made to improve the representation of these processes in ESMs, and the key to these efforts is the evaluation of ESM simulations with observations. Most well-established ESM diagnostics packages focus on the climatological features; however, they lack process-level understanding and representations of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. In this study, we developed the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package to facilitate the routine evaluation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs simulated the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) from the US Department of Energy (DOE). This paper documents its version 2 functionality (ESMAC Diags v2), which has substantial updates compared with version 1 (Tang et al., 2022a). The simulated aerosol and cloud properties have been extensively compared with in situ and remote-sensing measurements from aircraft, ship, surface, and satellite platforms in ESMAC Diags v2. It currently includes six field campaigns and two permanent sites covering four geographical regions: the eastern North Atlantic, the central US, the northeastern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. These regions produce frequent liquid- or mixed-phase clouds, with extensive measurements available from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility and other agencies. ESMAC Diags v2 generates various types of single-variable and multivariable diagnostics, including percentiles, histograms, joint histograms, and heatmaps, to evaluate the model representation of aerosols, clouds, and ACIs. Select examples highlighting the capabilities of ESMAC Diags are shown using E3SM version 2 (E3SMv2). In general, E3SMv2 can reasonably reproduce many observed aerosol and cloud properties, with biases in some variables such as aerosol particle and cloud droplet sizes and number concentrations. The coupling of aerosol and cloud number concentrations may be too strong in E3SMv2, possibly indicating a bias in processes that control aerosol activation. Furthermore, the liquid water path response to a perturbed cloud droplet number concentration behaves differently in E3SMv2 and observations, which warrants further study to improve the cloud microphysics parameterizations in E3SMv2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

WinnowML: Stable feature selection for maximizing prediction accuracy of time-based system modeling

Online deep learning (ODL) has become an important methodology for modeling time-based performance of computer systems. An open problem is the intelligent selection of features from raw workload traces of computer systems. The best methods are overly sensitive to noisy data, causing frequent feature changes and re-training. Using all available features inflates training time and introduces model artifacts if some features should have been dropped. We present WinnowML, a method for automatically determining the most relevant feature subset for a predictive time-series model. WinnowML combines existing feature ranking algorithms and a history of each feature's ranking to iteratively rank a feature set to lower prediction error and maximize long term relevance. From this ranked feature set, the most relevant and stable subset is selected to train a model. Experimentally, we show how WinnowML can lower a model's mean absolute relative error up to 42% on average compared to the closest performing approach. Additionally, we lower the fluctuation in feature ranking and selection up to 65%. We also demonstrate how to combine WinnowML and a model search tool to provide improvements in performance of up to 14.5% when compared to using all the feature available.

Bel, Oceane MS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolving CO 2 rather than SST leads to a factor of ten decrease in GCM convergence time

The high computational cost of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a problem that limits their use in many areas. Recently an inverse climate modeling (InvCM) method, which fixes the global mean sea surface temperature (SST) and evolves the CO 2 mixing ratio to equilibrate climate, has been implemented in a cloud resolving model. In this paper, we apply InvCM to ExoCAM GCM aquaplanet simulations, allowing the SST pattern to evolve while maintaining a fixed global-mean SST. We find that InvCM produces the same climate as normal slab-ocean simulations but converges an order of magnitude faster. We then use InvCM to calculate the equilibrium CO 2 for SSTs ranging from 290 K to 340 K at 1 K intervals and reproduce the large increase in climate sensitivity at an SST of about 315 K at much higher temperature resolution. The speedup provided by InvCM could be used to equilibrate GCMs at higher spatial resolution or to perform broader parameter space exploration in order to gain new insight into the climate system. Additionally, InvCM could be used to find unstable and hidden climate states, and to find climate states close to bifurcations such as the runaway greenhouse transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Real-time Plume Monitoring for Deep Sea Mineral Extraction​

In the emerging industry of deep-sea mining for minerals and deposits (e.g. polymetallic nodules for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese), more data is required to understand the effects of sediment plume generation and predict the distribution of disturbed sediment. There are two main sources of plume generation, the first being at the active mining site where the “collector” directly removes the top layer of the sea floor. The other is the “midwater plume” consisting of unwanted sediment that was collected during extraction that is pumped back into the aphotic zone. The vast majority of plume generation is caused by the collector, causing detrimental and long-lasting impacts on seafloor ecosystems due to the lack of wave activity or strong currents at the sea floor. Therefore, it is crucial to invest in the infrastructure to support the study and constant monitoring over a large area of the sea floor where plume generation is present. Due to the limited number of usable channels and power requirements, current subsea wireless communications technologies are not well suited to instrumenting the large areas of the sea floor needed to monitor plume migration. The scope of this effort is to transition experimental demonstrations of high-bandwidth, full-duplex scalable underwater laser communications to the seafloor in an open ocean environment. Specifically tackling challenges associated with the dynamic nature of the subsea world, including but not limited to, deployment logistics, sustainability, and range. The goal is to enable the internet of underwater things for deep sea industries by broadening the capabilities of subsea communications. By using high-precision laser transmitters, many of the challenges current subsea optical systems face can be circumvented, such as power consumption, interference, and bandwidth limitations. This approach lends itself to wireless interlinking multi-node networks, in series or parallel, facilitating the implementation of a wide array of sensor types. This interlinking allows all the data gathered from the network to be processed through a single hardline uplink to the surface, lowering the complexity required for near real-time data processing. Additionally, the laser control systems produce metadata that can be used to help characterize the water column between the nodes. Combining data from various sensors such as turbidity, temperature, current velocity with metadata such as beam attenuation and deflection can produce a high-resolution model of sea floor conditions around an active mining zone. The resulting near real-time model can be used to optimize location and flow rate of the mining operation to minimize and quantify the environmental impact.

Mons, Ishan↗
DOE OSTI2020

A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes

Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Using an Earth system model with soil erosion represented, we estimated that on average soil erosion displaces 5% of newly fixed land organic carbon downslope annually in the continental US. In the lower Mississippi river basin and the Cascades, the fraction can be as large as 40%. About 12% of the eroded organic carbon is eventually exported to inland waters, which is equal to 14% of the simulated net carbon gain by terrestrial ecosystems. By comparing the eroded organic carbon export to rivers with the particulate organic carbon export to oceans, we demonstrated that a large fraction of the carbon export to rivers could have been mineralized in inland waters. Importantly, with a direct comparison of eroded and exported soil organic carbon and land net carbon uptake, we found that Earth system models that ignore soil erosion likely offset the erosional carbon loss by increasing heterotrophic respiration implicitly. But as soil erosion and heterotrophic respiration respond differently to a warming climate, this unrealistic compensation would lead to biased predictions of future land carbon sink.

Tan, Zeli↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Notz, Dirk↗
DOE OSTI2025

Human perturbations to mercury in global rivers

Mercury compounds are potent neurotoxins that pose threats to human health, primarily through fish consumption. Rivers, critical for drinking water and food supply, have seen rapid increases in mercury concentrations and export to coastal margins since the Industrial Revolution (~1850). However, patterns of these changes remain understudied, limiting assessments of environmental policies. Here, we develop a global model to simulate preindustrial riverine total mercury and assess human perturbations by comparing it to present-day conditions. We find that global rivers transported ~390 megagrams annually of mercury to the oceans in the preindustrial era, with spatial variability. Human activities have elevated riverine mercury budgets by two to three times in the present day. Establishing a baseline riverine mercury level, our findings reveal rapid responses of riverine mercury to human perturbations and could be used to inform targets for global riverine mercury restoration. Total riverine mercury concentrations could also be used as indicators to comprehensively understand the effectiveness of mercury pollution governance.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of expanded marine sulfur chemistry to the seasonal variability of dimethyl sulfide oxidation products and size-resolved sulfate aerosol

Marine emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and the subsequent formation of its oxidation products methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) are well-known natural precursors of atmospheric aerosols, contributing to particle mass and cloud formation over ocean and coastal regions. Despite a long recognized and well-studied role in the marine troposphere, DMS oxidation chemistry remains a work in progress within many current air quality and climate models, with recent advances exploring heterogeneous chemistry and uncovering previously unknown intermediate species. With the identification of additional DMS oxidation path ways and intermediate species that influence the eventual fate of DMS, it is important to understand the impact of these pathways on the overall sulfate aerosol budget and aerosol size distribution. In this work, we update and evaluate the DMS oxidation mechanism of the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem by implementing expanded DMS oxidation pathways in the model. These updates include gas- and aqueous-phase reactions, the formation of the intermediates dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and methanesulfinic acid (MSIA), and cloud loss and aerosol uptake of the recently quantified intermediate hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF). We find that this updated mechanism collectively decreases the global mean surface-layer gas-phase sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) mixing ratio by 40 % and enhances the sulfate aerosol ($SO^{2-}_{4}$) mixing ratio by 17 %. We further perform sensitivity analyses exploring the contribution of cloud loss and aerosol uptake of HPMTF to the overall sulfur budget. Comparing modeled concentrations to available observations, we find improved biases relative to previous studies. To quantify the impacts of these chemistry updates on global particle size distributions and the mass concentration, we use the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics module coupled to GEOS-Chem and find that changes in particle formation and growth affect the size distribution of aerosol. With this new DMS-oxidation scheme, the global annual mean surface-layer number concentration of particles with diameters smaller than 80 nm decreases by 16.8 %, with cloud loss processes related to HPMTF being mostly responsible for this reduction. However, the global annual mean number of particles larger than 80 nm (corresponding to particles capable of acting as cloud condensation nuclei, CCN) increases by 3.8 %, suggesting that the new scheme promotes seasonal particle growth to these sizes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cloud adjustments from large-scale smoke–circulation interactions strongly modulate the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (~1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg -1 ) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Emergent Relationships Among Sea Ice, Longwave Radiation, and the Beaufort High Circulation Exposed Through Parameter Uncertainty Analysis

Using a perturbed parameter ensemble of a coupled climate model, emerging relationships are identified between sea ice area, net surface longwave radiation, and the atmospheric circulation over the Beaufort gyre. There is a strong positive correlation between sea ice area and the net longwave radiation over the ocean-ice surface during the melting season and a negative correlation during the freezing season. The mechanisms responsible for the longwave radiation balance at the surface are mainly driven by sea ice variations in the freezing season and by clouds in the melting season. A strong positive (negative) correlation is also found between the fall (summer) total sea ice area in the Arctic and the sea level pressure over the Beaufort High region. It is argued that as sea ice coverage is lost, static stability losses are severe in fall, resulting in enhanced evaporation, vertical motions, and weakening of the general large-scale anticyclonic circulation of the Beaufort High.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Modeling Experiments of Combined Effects of Ice and Permafrost on Delta Morphodynamics

This dataset contains output from numerical model experiments to test the combined effects of ice thickness and permafrost erodibility on delta dynamics. All experiments were conducted using DeltaRCM, a reduced complexity cellular model. Details of the model setup and experiments are described in full in Piliouras et al., (in revision). This dataset contains results from a total of 48 experiments, representing 16 different experimental conditions, each of which was run in triplicate. There is a control run (3 total experiments) with no ice and no permafrost. We used permafrost erodibilities (here described as erodibility relative to that of non-permafrost, and therefore < 1) of 0.65, 0.8, and 0.95, where 0.95 represents permafrost being only 5% less erodible than non-permafrost. We used ice thicknesses of 0.5 m, 3 m, and 4.5 m in a 5 m deep basin. We conducted experiments for each possible combination of permafrost erodibility and ice thickness (9 conditions, 27 experiments). We also provide results for experiments with only ice or permafrost (6 conditions, 18 experiments). The excel table (csv file) provides the ice and permafrost conditions for each run ID. Zip files contain model outputs and other variables generated during analysis (see ReadMe file) as numpy arrays (.npy files), which can be accessed using python.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Think before you throw! An analysis of behavioral interventions targeting PET bottle recycling in the United States

The United States generates 42 Mt of plastic waste each year and is one of the biggest contributors to ocean plastic waste. Consequently, plastic has become synonymous with the linear economy, and many scholars are studying and proposing circular economy solutions to mitigate plastic pollution. Recycling has received much attention from both social sciences and engineering as a circular economy strategy, but no study has yet quantified how behavioral interventions could asymmetrically affect different populations. Here, this study combines agent-based modeling, material flow analysis, system dynamics, and life cycle assessment to assess the effect of four behavioral interventions on the collection rates of polyethylene terephthalate bottle waste, displaced virgin plastic manufacturing, and avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results show that, while behavioral interventions would require about 300–900 GJ of additional energy at end-of-life due to improved collection rates, they would avoid about 500–700 thousand metric tons of GHG emissions. Results also illustrate the importance of habits in disposal behaviors and show that different forms of interventions can be better adapted to particular social contexts than others. While the circular economy and its application to plastic waste should certainly not be restricted to recycling, this study demonstrates that improved collection rates and recycling technologies can contribute to reducing the amount of plastic waste polluting our oceans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Marginal Ice Zone as a dominant source region of atmospheric mercury during central Arctic summertime

Atmospheric gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations in the Arctic exhibit a clear summertime maximum, while the origin of this peak is still a matter of debate in the community. Based on summertime observations during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a modeling approach, we further investigate the sources of atmospheric Hg in the central Arctic. Simulations with a generalized additive model (GAM) show that long-range transport of anthropogenic and terrestrial Hg from lower latitudes is a minor contribution (~2%), and more than 50% of the explained GEM variability is caused by oceanic evasion. A potential source contribution function (PSCF) analysis further shows that oceanic evasion is not significant throughout the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean but mainly occurs in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) due to the specific environmental conditions in that region. Our results suggest that this regional process could be the leading contributor to the observed summertime GEM maximum. In the context of rapid Arctic warming and the observed increase in width of the MIZ, oceanic Hg evasion may become more significant and strengthen the role of the central Arctic Ocean as a summertime source of atmospheric Hg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds

This report documents work sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) as part of the RES project, “Application of Point Precipitation Frequency Estimates to Watersheds.” This project was implemented as part of the Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program. The objective of the PFHA Research Program is to develop tools and guidance on the use of PFHA methods to risk-inform NRC’s licensing of new facilities as well as licensing and oversight of currently operating facilities as they relate to flooding hazards. Many nuclear power plants (NPPs) are located on or near rivers so riverine flooding hazards need to be considered in their design and operation. Probabilistic riverine flood models are important tools for realistic assessment of flooding risks. However, these models require areal estimates of the depth, duration, and frequency of rainfall distributed over the watershed, which are not often available. Point precipitation frequency estimates are more widely available. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published NOAA Atlas 14, which provides point precipitation frequency estimates for 5-minute through 60-day durations at average recurrence intervals of 1-year through 1,000-year. The research documented in this report addresses areal reduction factors (ARFs), which can be used to convert the widely available point precipitation frequency estimates, to estimates of areal precipitation frequency over a watershed. The most widely used ARF source is Technical Paper 29 (TP-29) published by the then U.S. Weather Bureau in 1958. However, both the methods and the underlying precipitation data used to produce TP-29 are seriously out of date. For example, due to the small gauge network available at the time of TP-29’s compilation, ARF estimates developed are only for watersheds smaller than about 400 square miles. Due to the relatively short record lengths of precipitation data available, frequency considerations could not be accurately determined. Other factors such as regional climate and seasonality were not addressed. Several newer methods have been published since TP-29 was developed and both the type and quantity of precipitation data have increased significantly, along with computational resources and analytical tools such as geographic information systems. This report reviewed and assessed the available precipitation products and methods for conducting ARF analysis. The work applied up-to-date precipitation data products and analysis methods with a novel watershed-based approach to investigate how ARF estimates vary across different methods, data sources, geographical locations, return periods, and seasons. The overall findings reported here regarding basic ARF trends are in line with other recent studies showing that ARFs decrease with increasing area, increase with increasing duration, and decrease with increasing return period. This study found significant differences among the available ARF methods. This work also found a strong geographical variability across different US hydrologic regions, suggesting that the ARF are specific to regional climate patterns and geographical characteristics and should not be applied arbitrarily to other locations. The results also reveal the importance of data record length, especially for high return level ARFs. The work reported in NUREG/CR-7271 will assist NRC staff in assessing different classes of ARF methods in conjunction with available rainfall data sets. It will also support the development of guidance for application of point precipitation data in PFHAs. It should be noted that the ARF values presented in this report for any location or region were developed for the purposes of comparing methods and investigating the factors that influence ARFs. They should not be considered official and should not be used in leu of a site-specific analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Support for the Second MOSAiC Science Conference support (Final Report)

This is a final report for a conference support project. The US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric System Research Program provided funding support for the Second MOSAiC Science Conference. MOSAiC is the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate, a yearlong, international expedition into the rapidly changing Arctic sea ice. The expedition collected measurements of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean to study coupled physical, chemical, and biological processes. The Second MOSAiC Science Conference provided an important opportunity to bring the MOSAiC-interested community together to discuss MOSAiC data, scientific analyses, synthesis, modeling activities, and more. Overall, the conference was a significant success and has motivated and facilitated a great deal of ongoing research. The support provide by this project was used along with support from other agencies to implement a participant support program that enabled participation in the conference by a diverse collection of researchers from many different countries and disciplines, 60% of whom were female. Most of these participants were Early Career Researchers. Participation by these researchers was vital to the overall success of the conference and has helped to build leadership and research skills for the participants that will serve both themselves and the broader scientific community in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for 'Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning', Water 2022

This data package presents forcing data, model code, and model output for classical machine learning models that predict monthly stream water temperature as presented in the manuscript ‘Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning’, Water (Weierbach et al., 2022). Specifically, for input forcing datasets we include two files each generated using the BASIN-3D data integration tool (Varadharajan et al., 2022) for stations in the Pacific Northwest and Mid Atlantic Hydrologic regions. Model code (written in python with the use of jupyter notebooks) includes codes for data preprocessing, training Multiple Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, and Extreme Gradient Boosted Tree models, and additional notebooks for analysis of model output. We include specific model output files which represent modeling configurations presented in the manuscript also presented in an hdf5 format. Together, these data make up the workflow for predictions across three scenarios (single station, regional, and predictions in unmonitored basins) presented in the manuscript and allow for reproducibility of modeling procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗