Results for “model updating” — Page 59

DOE OSTI2020

A particle finite element-based model for droplet spreading analysis

Here, a particle finite element method-based model is proposed to analyze droplet dynamics problems, particularly droplet spreading on solid substrates (wetting). The model uses an updated Lagrangian framework to formulate the governing equations of the liquid. The curvature of the liquid surface is tracked accurately using a deforming boundary mesh. In order to predict the spreading rate of the droplet on the solid substrate and track the corresponding contact angle evolution, dissipative forces at the contact line are included in the formulation in addition to the Navier-slip boundary conditions at the solid–liquid interface. The inclusion of these boundary conditions makes it possible to account for the induced Young’s stress at the contact line and for the viscous dissipation along the solid–liquid interfacial region. These are found to be essential to obtain a mesh-independent physical solution. The temporal evolution of the contact angle and the contact line velocity of the proposed model are compared with spreading droplets and micro-sessile droplet injection experiments and are shown to be in good agreement.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1989

Locating Damaged Members in a Truss Structure Using Modal Test Data: a Demonstration Experiment

On-orbit assessment of large flexible space truss structures can be accomplished, in principle, with dynamic response information, structural identification methods, and model correlation techniques which produce an adjusted mathematical model. In a previously developed approach for damage location, an optimal update of the structure model is formed using the response data, then examined to locate damaged members. An experiment designed to demonstrate and verify the performance of the on-orbit assessment approach uses a laboratory scale model truss structure which exhibits characteristics expected for large space truss structures. Vibration experiments were performed to generate response data for the damaged truss. The damage location approach, analytical work performed in support of the vibration tests, the measured response of the test article, and some preliminary results are described.

Smith, Suzanne Weaver↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental and Numerical Investigation to Characterize the Low-Temperature Heat Release in Stoichiometric and Lean Combustion

This work reports on an experimental and modeling study on the low-temperature heat release (LTHR) characteristics for three RON 90 binary blends (n-heptane blended with isooctane, toluene and ethanol) in a Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine at lean and stoichiometric conditions that are representative of homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) and spark-ignition (SI) end-gas combustion conditions, respectively. An analysis of the end-gas temperature-pressure (T-P) trajectories was performed to identify the intake conditions leading to similar T-P trajectories between the two lambdas for each fuel blend. A heat release analysis was then conducted for the identified cases, where fuel-to-fuel differences in LTHR were identified and found to be sensitive to the operating condition. Simulations were conducted for these cases using a recently updated chemical kinetic model and a 0-D engine model, where good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreements in LTHR were obtained. Sensitivity analysis was also performed directly on the rates of LTHR, to understand the controlling chemical reactions of LTHR, providing further insights into the fuel-to-fuel differences. The results demonstrate the significant promoting effect of n-heptane on LTHR rates, while inhibiting effects were seen for ethanol and toluene. Also highlighted was the importance of H atom abstraction reactions from the chemistry of each fuel component, which could lead to contradictory fuel behavior depending on the locations of the H site of the abstraction reaction due to the different ensuing pathways for the primary fuel radicals.

LTHR, RON 90 binary blends, sensitivity analysis↗

NASA NTRS1994

Recent space shuttle observations of the South Atlantic anomaly and the radiation belt models

Active ingredients consisting of Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (TEPC) and a Proton and Heavy Ion Detector (PHIDE) have been carried on a number of Space Shuttle flights. These instruments have allowed us to map out parts of the South Atlantic Particle Anomaly (SAA) and to compare some of it's features with predictions of the AP-8 energetic proton flux models. We have observed that consistent with the generally observed westward drift of the surface features of the terrestial magnetic field of the SAA has moved west by about 6.9 degrees longitude between the epoch year 1970 of the AP-8 solar maximum model and the Space Shuttle observations made twenty years later. However, calculations indicate that except for relatively brief periods following very large magnetic storms the SAA seems to occupy the same position in L-space as in 1970. After the great storm of 24 March 1991 reconfiguration of the inner radiation belt and/or proton injection into the inner belt, a second energetic proton belt was observed to form at approximately equal to 2. As confirmed by a subsequent flight observations, this belt was shown to persist at least for six months. Our measurements also indicate an upward shift in the L location of the primary belt from L = 1.4 to L = 1.5. In addition we confirm through direct real time observations the existence and the approximate magnitude of the East-West effect. If the need exists for improved and updated radiation belt models in the Space Station era, these observations point out the specific features that should be considered and incorporated when this task is undertaken.

Konradi, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Sail Torque Model Characterization for the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Mission

Near Earth Asteroid Scout (NEA Scout) was a mission to test solar sail propulsion for orbital transfer from cislunar space to flyby and image an asteroid. Had it succeeded, one of the mission goals was to characterize the solar torque on the sail to ensure successful attitude control for the orbit transfer and imaging the asteroid. The simulation used to develop the flight attitude control software uses the generalized model for solar sails, a tensor equation of the forces and torques on sails of arbitrary shape. Rios-Reyes and Scheeres developed a general process to update the torque tensor coefficients using estimates of sail torque over a range of directions to the sun. Their process was adapted and implemented for the specific case of NEA Scout using spacecraft telemetry collected during sail characterization maneuvers in combination with simulation models and parameters. The NEA Scout maneuvers were limited to the operating range of the mission and constraints of the control hardware and allowed safe testing of each attitude before proceeding to the next. The NEA Scout reaction wheel speeds are used to measure accumulated momentum, while the Active Mass Translator (AMT) position is used to subtract out the torque from the center of mass crossed with the sail force and isolate the torque from only the sail shape. The process was tested by running attitude control simulations of the characterization maneuvers, generating simulated telemetry, estimating the solar torques, then using a least squares estimating the solar torque coefficients using least-squares and then performing a least-squares fit to the solar torque tensor coefficients. These estimated coefficients were tested by evaluating the solar torques under the same conditions as the simulated telemetry and comparing to the true simulated torques. Solar force model updates can be performed separately by observing the effect of the sail on the trajectory, and the torque model can be refined using those solar force updates. This process met the needs of the NEA Scout mission and can be adapted to characterize the solar torque for other missions with different sails.

solar sail↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Sail Torque Model Characterization for the Near Earth Asteroid Scout Mission

Near Earth Asteroid Scout (NEA Scout) was a mission to test solar sail propulsion for orbital transfer from cislunar space to flyby and image an asteroid. One of the goals of the mission was to characterize the solar torque on the sail to ensure successful attitude control for the orbit transfer and imaging the asteroid. The simulation used to develop the flight attitude control software uses the generalized model for solar sails, a tensor equation of the forces and torques on sails of arbitrary shape. Rios-Reyes and Scheeres developed a general process to update the torque tensor coefficients using estimates of sail torque over a range of directions to the sun. Their process was adapted and implemented for the specific case of NEA Scout using spacecraft telemetry collected during sail characterization maneuvers in combination with simulation models and parameters. The NEA Scout maneuvers were limited to the operating range of the mission and constraints of the control hardware and allowed safe testing of each attitude before proceeding to the next. The NEA Scout reaction wheel speeds are used to measure accumulated momentum, while the Active Mass Translator (AMT) position is used to subtract out the torque from the center of mass crossed with the sail force and isolate the torque from only the sail shape. The process was tested by running attitude control simulations of the characterization maneuvers, generating simulated telemetry, estimating the solar torques, then using a least squares estimating the solar torque coefficients using least-squares and then performing a least-squares fit to the solar torque tensor coefficients. These estimated coefficients were tested by evaluating the solar torques under the same conditions as the simulated telemetry and comparing to the true simulated torques. Solar force model updates can be performed separately by observing the effect of the sail on the trajectory, and the torque model can be refined using those solar force updates. This process met the needs of the NEA Scout mission and can be adapted to characterize the solar torque for other missions with different sails.

solar sail↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Assessment of Residential Air-to-Water Heat Pumps Coupled with Cooling Thermal Storage

This study explored the performance and operating cost viability of air-to-water heat pumps (AWHPs) coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) in efficient new residential construction. AWHPs are an emerging technology in this country, but offer promise in terms of high efficiency, fully contained and factory charged outdoor refrigeration system, and hydronic delivery capabilities, which facilitates zoning, ducts in conditioned space, and TES integration for summer load-shifting. Although this AWHP+TES strategy is not yet mainstream, the authors feel that in ten years as decarbonization efforts proceed and TOU rates become more common, strategies such as this will be more accessible. Validated EnergyPlus simulation models were developed based on detailed monitoring data collected over several years at Pacific Gas and Electric's CVRH laboratory test homes located in Stockton, California. One of the CVRH test homes (1,962 ft 2 two-story) had been testing various AWHP systems and configurations over the past six years. The validated model was then updated with high efficiency IECC ZERH envelope and component requirements for climate zones 1-5, including ducts in conditioned space thermal distribution. Simulations were completed for the 1,962 ft 2 home in each climate zone for a minimum efficiency ASHP, an AWHP coupled with a fan coil, and an AWHP coupled with TES sized to eliminate summer on-peak compressor operation. To maintain consistency in reporting energy use estimates, all cases were run with a similar indoor thermostat control strategy to pre-cool the house below the nominal 76 degrees Fahrenheit set point prior to the on-peak period and float slightly above the set point during the peak period. The AWHP+TES configuration was controlled to alternately condition the indoor space or to charge the TES tanks prior to the beginning of the on-peak. Three composite TOU rates were developed based on existing TOU rates across the U.S. to provide differing economic scenarios to evaluate customer bill impacts throughout the summer. Two of the TOU rates had short three-hour peak periods, while the third rate had a longer seven-hour duration peak period. AWHP modeling projections were based on the observed field performance of the Chiltrix CX34 variable speed unit. Other products on the market or entering the market in the near term would likely perform differently.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Duration of Contagion of Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus in Infected Live Pigs and Carcasses

Data-driven modeling of incursions of high-consequence, transboundary pathogens of animals is a critical component of veterinary preparedness. However, simplifying assumptions and excessive use of proxy measures to compensate for gaps in available data may compromise modeled outcomes. The current investigation was prospectively designed to address two major gaps in current knowledge of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis in pigs: the end (duration) of the infectious period and the viability of FMDV in decaying carcasses. By serial exposure of sentinel groups of pigs to the same group of donor pigs infected by FMDV A24 Cruzeiro, it was demonstrated that infected pigs transmitted disease at 10 days post infection (dpi), but not at 15 dpi. Assuming a latent period of 1 day, this would result in a conservative estimate of an infectious duration of 9 days, which is considerably longer than suggested by a previous report from an experiment performed in cattle. Airborne contagion was diminished within two days of removal of infected pigs from isolation rooms. FMDV in muscle was inactivated within 7 days in carcasses stored at 4°C. By contrast, FMDV infectivity in vesicle epithelium harvested from intact carcasses stored under similar conditions remained remarkably high until the study termination at 11 weeks post mortem. The output from this study consists of experimentally determined data on contagion associated with FMDV-infected pigs. This information may be utilized to update parameterization of models used for foot-and-mouth disease outbreak simulations involving areas of substantial pig production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV Inverter Testing for Momentary Cessation and Rate-of-Change-of-Frequency Events

To understand the power system stability and develop better electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of field deployed photovoltaic (PV) inverters, it is important to characterize inverters' response to abnormal voltage and frequency scenarios. Because EMT models are not typically available for small distribution-connected PV inverters, and because inerterconnection standards historically did not specify desired ride-through behaviors, we tested two such inverters in the lab to characterize their responses to severe undervoltage events and high rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF) conditions. The inverters tested were pre-IEEE 1547-2018 residential PV inverters widely used in the Hawaiian Electric territory and many other areas. The testing results for undervoltage scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor exhibited momentary cessation while the inverter from the other vendor did not exhibit momentary cessation behavior or tripping for most of the events below the 120 ms undervoltage trip threshold duration set by IEEE 1547-2003. The testing results for ROCOF scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor temporarily lost synchronization during ROCOF conditions while the inverter from the other vendor did not lose synchronization or cease generation for any ROCOF conditions. Both the inverters were also tested for EMT-simulated grid events with severe changes in frequency and voltage. The observed responses of the inverters were different from the simulated response of PV inverters represented the best available assumptions from pre-existing information. The results from these experiments can be used to update the inverter models used in bulk power system studies.

aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2023

PV Inverter Testing for Momentary Cessation and Rate-of-Change-of-Frequency Events: Preprint

To understand the power system stability and develop better electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of field deployed photovoltaic (PV) inverters, it is important to characterize inverters' response to abnormal voltage and frequency scenarios. Because EMT models are not typically available for small distribution-connected PV inverters, and because inerterconnection standards historically did not specify desired ride-through behaviors, we tested two such inverters in the lab to characterize their responses to severe undervoltage events and high rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF) conditions. The inverters tested were pre-IEEE 1547-2018 residential PV inverters widely used in the Hawaiian Electric territory and many other areas. The testing results for undervoltage scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor exhibited momentary cessation while the inverter from the other vendor did not exhibit momentary cessation behavior or tripping for most of the events below the 120 ms undervoltage trip threshold duration set by IEEE 1547-2003. The testing results for ROCOF scenarios showed that the inverter from one vendor temporarily lost synchronization during ROCOF conditions while the inverter from the other vendor did not lose synchronization or cease generation for any ROCOF conditions. Both the inverters were also tested for EMT-simulated grid events with severe changes in frequency and voltage. The observed responses of the inverters were different from the simulated response of PV inverters represented the best available assumptions from pre-existing information. The results from these experiments can be used to update the inverter models used in bulk power system studies.

IEEE 1547 2018↗

NASA NTRS1999

Reference H Cycle 3 Stability, Control, and Flying Qualities Batch Assessments

This work is an update of the assessment completed in February of 1996, when a preliminary assessment report was issued for the Cycle 2B simulation model. The primary purpose of the final assessment was to re-evaluate each assessment against the flight control system (FCS) requirements document using the updated model. Only a limited number of final assessments were completed due to the close proximity of the release of the Langley model and the assessment deliverable date. The assessment used the nonlinear Cycle 3 simulation model because it combines nonlinear aeroelastic (quasi-static) aerodynamic with hinge moment and rate limited control surface deflections. Both Configuration Aerodynamics (Task 32) and Flight Controls (Task 36) were funded in 1996 to conduct the final stability and control assessments of the unaugmented Reference H configuration in FY96. Because the two tasks had similar output requirements, the work was divided such that Flight Controls would be responsible for the implementation and checkout of the simulation model and Configuration Aerodynamics for writing Madab "script' files, conducting the batch assessments and writing the assessment report. Additionally, Flight Controls was to investigate control surface allocations schemes different from the baseline Reference H in an effort to fulfill flying qualities criteria.

Henderson, Dennis K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supporting data for Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

Li, Shuyun↗

NASA NTRS2006

High-Resolution Analysis Products to Support Severe Weather and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Threat Assessments over Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) located at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) implemented an operational configuration of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), as well as the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Operational, high-resolution ADAS analyses have been produced from this configuration at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) over the past several years. Since that time, ADAS fields have become an integral part of forecast operations at both NWS MLB and SMG. To continue providing additional utility, the AMU has been tasked to implement visualization products to assess the potential for supercell thunderstorms and significant tornadoes, and to improve assessments of short-term cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning potential. This paper and presentation focuses on the visualization products developed by the AMU for the operational high-resolution ADAS and AR.PS at the NWS MLB and SMG. The two severe weather threat graphics implemented within ADAS/ARPS are the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) and Significant Tornado Parameter (SIP). The SCP was designed to identify areas with supercell thunderstorm potential through a combination of several instability and shear parameters. The SIP was designed to identify areas that favor supercells producing significant tornadoes (F2 or greater intensity) versus non-tornadic supercells. Both indices were developed by the NOAAINWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and were normalized by key threshold values based on previous studies. The indices apply only to discrete storms, not other convective modes. In a post-analysis mode, the AMU calculated SCP and SIP for graphical output using an ADAS configuration similar to the operational set-ups at NWS MLB and SMG. Graphical images from ADAS were generated every 15 minutes for 13 August 2004, the day that Hurricane Charley approached and made landfall on the Florida peninsula. Several tornadoes struck the interior of the Florida peninsula in advance of Hurricane Charley's landfall during the daylight hours of 13 August. Since SPC had previously examined this case using SCP and SIP graphics generated from output of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model, this day served as a good benchmark to compare and validate the high-resolution ADAS graphics against the smoother RUC analyses, which serves as background fields to the ADAS analyses. The ADAS-generated SCP and STP graphics have been integrated into the suite of products examined operationally by NWS MLB forecasters and are used to provide additional guidance for assessment of the near-storm environment during convective situations.

Case, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS1988

Multiple boundary condition test (MBCT) - Identification with mode shapes

The multiple boundary condition test (MBCT) approach is a ground test method to test a class of large flexible structures which cannot be ground tested by state-of-the-art test methods due to the adverse terrestrial environment. The ultimate objective of a ground test is considered to be the validation and update of a mathematical model of the structure. The research to date has indicated the MBCT does work on numerical simulations and on experimental laboratory hardware. To date only the eigenvalue has been used in the model correlation/update by inclusion of the information in the nonlinear terms resulting from the difference between the analytical and measured eigenvectors. This paper presents the results of utilizing additional information, namely the difference in the analytical and the test eigenvectors, in the validation and update of the mathematical model.

Kuo, C. P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurements and Model Improvement: Insight into NWP Model Error Using Doppler Lidar and Other WFIP2 Measurement Systems

Abstract Doppler-lidar wind-profile measurements at three sites were used to evaluate NWP model errors from two versions of NOAA’s 3-km-grid HRRR model, to see whether updates in the latest version 4 reduced errors when compared against the original version 1. Nested (750-m grid) versions of each were also tested to see how grid spacing affected forecast skill. The measurements were part of the field phase of the Second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2), an 18-month deployment into central Oregon–Washington, a major wind-energy-producing region. This study focuses on errors in simulating marine intrusions, a summertime, 600–800-m-deep, regional sea-breeze flow found to generate large errors. HRRR errors proved to be complex and site dependent. The most prominent error resulted from a premature drop in modeled marine-intrusion wind speeds after local midnight, when lidar-measured winds of greater than 8 m s −1 persisted through the next morning. These large negative errors were offset at low levels by positive errors due to excessive mixing, complicating the interpretation of model “improvement,” such that the updates to the full-scale versions produced mixed results, sometimes enhancing but sometimes degrading model skill. Nesting consistently improved model performance, with version 1’s nest producing the smallest errors overall. HRRR’s ability to represent the stages of sea-breeze forcing was evaluated using radiation budget, surface-energy balance, and near-surface temperature measurements available during WFIP2. The significant site-to-site differences in model error and the complex nature of these errors mean that field-measurement campaigns having dense arrays of profiling sensors are necessary to properly diagnose and characterize model errors, as part of a systematic approach to NWP model improvement. Significance Statement Dramatic increases in NWP model skill will be required over the coming decades. This paper describes the role of major deployments of accurate profiling sensors in achieving that goal and presents an example from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2). Wind-profile data from scanning Doppler lidars were used to evaluate two versions of HRRR, the original and an updated version, and nested versions of each. This study focuses on the ability of updated HRRR versions to improve upon predicting a regional sea-breeze flow, which was found to generate large errors by the original HRRR. Updates to the full-scale HRRR versions produced mixed results, but the finer-mesh versions consistently reduced model errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Your Clean Graphene is Still Not Clean

Researchers working with thin samples, such as monolayer graphene, are consistently struggling against contamination. Indeed, the problem of hydrocarbon contamination is known from the earliest days of electron microscopy and efforts to reduce this problem are ubiquitous to almost all high-vacuum experiments. Accurate knowledge of the behavior of such contamination is essential for electron beam (e-beam) based atomic fabrication, where it is aspired to select and control matter on an atom-by-atom basis. Here, the vexing question of hydrocarbon contamination on graphene is taken up. Image intensity is used to directly reveal the presence of diffusing hydrocarbons on ostensibly clean graphene. These diffusing hydrocarbons are previously inferred but not directly observed. Surprising dynamic variations of the concentration of these hydrocarbons impels questions about their origin. Here, some possible explanations are presented and some tentative conclusions are drawn. This work updates the conceptual model of “clean graphene” and offers refinements to the description of e-beam induced hydrocarbon deposition.

atomic fabrication↗