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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Influence of gravity field uncertainties on the results from POGO and Magsat geomagnetic surveys

Errors in the gravity models used in satellite position calculations are examined as a possible source of the 0 to 100% variance found between POGO and Magsat magnetic data and the extrapolations of aerial magnetic survey data to satellite heights. For POGO data obtained over the New York Bight region using a relatively poor gravity field (a hybrid spherical harmonic model of degree 7 and order 6 with three higher order resonance terms), the magnitude of the error in the satellite height component is found to be sufficient to account for the amplitude of the discrepancy, however the frequency of the quasi-periodic orbital error is too large to explain the localized nature of the differences. For the case of the Magsat satellite, in which a more accurate gravity model was used, it is found that a 30 mgal gravitational anomaly distributed over a 5 x 5 deg area will produce insufficiently large position errors to account for the variations. The agreement between the two sets of satellite data in the New York Bight region suggests either a consistent error in satellite measurements, or problems with the reduction and processing of the aeromagnetic data.

Taylor, P. T.↗

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica L. McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating the Impact of Geostationary Sounders in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder (GXS) on its central satellite, joining international counterparts. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a lone sounder in a GEO orbit and as part of a global ring of such instruments. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective, the ability of GXS and the global ring to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was assessed both globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Over CONUS, the FSOI metric showed the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Thermal Data-driven Model Reduction for Enhanced Battery Health Monitoring

Electric aviation faces a major challenge of avoiding potentially catastrophic consequences of the battery’s thermal runaway while keeping the weight of the battery low. Detection of early warning signals of battery failures requires accurate monitoring of the battery’s health throughout its lifespan. However, identifying the parameters of the battery from field data is notoriously difficult. We investigate this problem within the framework of modeling the temperature dynamics of a Li-ion cell during tests simulating loading in electric aircraft flights. It is found that the parameters of a higher-fidelity physics-based thermal model cannot be identified from the simulated flight data. To resolve this issue, we reduce the higher-fidelity thermal model to a model with fewer parameters. The resulting reduced-order model can predict temperature dynamics accurately and is identifiable throughout the cell’s lifespan which allows using the model’s parameters to monitor the state-of-health of the aging cell and detect anomalies in thermal behavior.

Li ion batteries↗

Constraining the release of Sn to the ambient melting point following shock loading using time-resolved x-ray diffraction

The formation of liquid following release from a shocked state governs the transition from spall to cavitation and the formation of ejecta in metals. In order to build physics-based models of these processes, it is necessary to critically evaluate the relative importance of kinetics and entropy generation during the release along with the accuracy of multiphase equations of state. Tin (Sn) has served as a testbed for a variety of experiments examining strength and ejecta due to its accessible melt boundary and solid–solid phase transitions. This work presents experiments examining the phase evolution of high purity Sn following the shock and release to ambient stress near the melting point. Sn is found to release to states between its ambient solidus and liquidus from approximately 19 to 33 GPa under uniaxial loading, with the two-phase region being characterized by a reduction in the intensity of the (220), (211) β -Sn doublet. Jetting experiments performed at 27–28 GPa exhibit comparable diffraction patterns with what is observed following the uniaxial release. The solid fractions of β-Sn in the ambient mixed phase region are found to decrease linearly with increasing shock stress as increasing liquid Sn is formed. Here, the results provide much needed information for interpreting measurements of dynamic strength at a high strain rate and experiments examining cavitation and shallow bubble collapse in Sn.

, spall↗

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A computer simulation of the turbocharged turbo compounded diesel engine system: A description of the thermodynamic and heat transfer models

A computer simulation of the turbocharged turbocompounded direct-injection diesel engine system was developed in order to study the performance characteristics of the total system as major design parameters and materials are varied. Quasi-steady flow models of the compressor, turbines, manifolds, intercooler, and ducting are coupled with a multicylinder reciprocator diesel model, where each cylinder undergoes the same thermodynamic cycle. The master cylinder model describes the reciprocator intake, compression, combustion and exhaust processes in sufficient detail to define the mass and energy transfers in each subsystem of the total engine system. Appropriate thermal loading models relate the heat flow through critical system components to material properties and design details. From this information, the simulation predicts the performance gains, and assesses the system design trade-offs which would result from the introduction of selected heat transfer reduction materials in key system components, over a range of operating conditions.

Assanis, D. N.↗

Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight

The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.

simulation↗

Material efficiency and climate change mitigation of passenger vehicles

A transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy is currently underway but may not be rapid enough in order to reach ambitious climate change mitigation targets. Therefore, additional, preferably instantaneous, measures are needed for quick emissions reductions, which is where material efficiency (ME) could constitute a promising solution. ME strategies include but are not limited to vehicle lightweighting through material substitution, increased recycling of materials, reuse and remanufacturing of vehicle components, vehicle downsizing (switching to a smaller vehicle) and more intensive use by means of increased vehicle occupancy through sharing practices. While recent analyses have focused on a narrow subset of these, we find striking differences in the overall potential of different strategies to decrease vehicular carbon footprints. Downsizing and more intensive use offer the largest mitigation potential but strongly depend on consumer behavior and are highly sensitive to modeling assumptions. Combined, the analyzed strategies can achieve emission reductions of up to 57% over the life cycle of a single vehicle, which is comparable to up to 83% achieved through a shift to low-carbon energy supply. ME can cut carbon footprints of already efficient vehicles charging renewable electricity by half again. This makes ME both an excellent short-term solution for climate change mitigation targeting the light vehicle sector but also an important complementary strategy to the long-term transition towards electric vehicles and renewable energy supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

2000 Numerical Propulsion System Simulation Review

The technologies necessary to enable detailed numerical simulations of complete propulsion systems are being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center in cooperation with industry, academia, and other government agencies. Large scale, detailed simulations will be of great value to the nation because they eliminate some of the costly testing required to develop and certify advanced propulsion systems. In addition, time and cost savings will be achieved by enabling design details to be evaluated early in the development process before a commitment is made to a specific design. This concept is called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). NPSS consists of three main elements: (1) engineering models that enable multidisciplinary analysis of large subsystems and systems at various levels of detail, (2) a simulation environment that maximizes designer productivity, and (3) a cost-effective. high-performance computing platform. A fundamental requirement of the concept is that the simulations must be capable of overnight execution on easily accessible computing platforms. This will greatly facilitate the use of large-scale simulations in a design environment. This paper describes the current status of the NPSS with specific emphasis on the progress made over the past year on air breathing propulsion applications. Major accomplishments include the first formal release of the NPSS object-oriented architecture (NPSS Version 1) and the demonstration of a one order of magnitude reduction in computing cost-to-performance ratio using a cluster of personal computers. The paper also describes the future NPSS milestones, which include the simulation of space transportation propulsion systems in response to increased emphasis on safe, low cost access to space within NASA'S Aerospace Technology Enterprise. In addition, the paper contains a summary of the feedback received from industry partners on the fiscal year 1999 effort and the actions taken over the past year to respond to that feedback. NPSS was supported in fiscal year 2000 by the High Performance Computing and Communications Program.

Lytle, John↗

2001 Numerical Propulsion System Simulation Review

The technologies necessary to enable detailed numerical simulations of complete propulsion systems are being developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center in cooperation with industry, academia and other government agencies. Large scale, detailed simulations will be of great value to the nation because they eliminate some of the costly testing required to develop and certify advanced propulsion systems. In addition, time and cost savings will be achieved by enabling design details to be evaluated early in the development process before a commitment is made to a specific design. This concept is called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). NPSS consists of three main elements: (1) engineering models that enable multidisciplinary analysis of large subsystems and systems at various levels of detail, (2) a simulation environment that maximizes designer productivity, and (3) a cost-effective, high-performance computing platform. A fundamental requirement of the concept is that the simulations must be capable of overnight execution on easily accessible computing platforms. This will greatly facilitate the use of large-scale simulations in a design environment. This paper describes the current status of the NPSS with specific emphasis on the progress made over the past year on air breathing propulsion applications. Major accomplishments include the first formal release of the NPSS object-oriented architecture (NPSS Version 1) and the demonstration of a one order of magnitude reduction in computing cost-to-performance ratio using a cluster of personal computers. The paper also describes the future NPSS milestones, which include the simulation of space transportation propulsion systems in response to increased emphasis on safe, low cost access to space within NASA's Aerospace Technology Enterprise. In addition, the paper contains a summary of the feedback received from industry partners on the fiscal year 2000 effort and the actions taken over the past year to respond to that feedback. NPSS was supported in fiscal year 2001 by the High Performance Computing and Communications Program.

Lytle, John↗

Weather effects on the lifecycle of U.S. Department of Defense equipment replacement (WELDER)

Extreme weather has a direct and significant impact on buildings and infrastructure, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. This problem continues to grow as climate patterns change and buildings are exposed to new and different hazards than what they were designed to withstand. In order to better plan for the long-range sustainment, restoration, modernization, and eventual recapitalization of these buildings, organizations with large building portfolios, such as the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), must have an awareness of the risks that these extreme weather events present. This research aimed to develop an approach to estimate condition loss and reduction in service life for the components of a building due to extreme weather hazards, to understand the risks that may be present in certain buildings and building systems. To achieve this objective, a damage association matrix was developed that categorizes climate hazards, the damage modes that they produce, and the individual component types impacted. This damage matrix formally links state-of-the-art climate model output, which provides projections of the probability of various climate hazards with a damage effects model that quantifies the consequence on component-level condition and service life. This method is applied to an actual portfolio of buildings in a particular geographic location and with a pre-defined component inventory that comprises the building. This approach can be aggregated to the system-, facility-, and site-level thus helping support billions of dollars in recapitalization decisions related to restoration/modernization of facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimates of global recycling coefficients for LTX- β discharges

We report the first observation of global recycling coefficient R near 0.5 in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β (LTX-β), significantly below the minimum R previously reported in other devices. In a series of experiments with varied Li wall conditioning, estimates of the recycling coefficient have been made using a Lyman-α array and DEGAS2 modeling. A progressive reduction in Lyman-α emission with increased lithium and an increase in edge electron temperature are observed. It is also observed that with increasing Li coating thickness, the effective particle confinement time τp* is reduced and approaches TRANSP calculated energy confinement time (τE), with τp* near τE,TRANSP for the lowest recycling coefficients. Edge temperatures approaching core plasma temperatures, first reported in LTX, can now be directly connected to estimates of the recycling coefficient and qualitatively agree with previous UEDGE simulations. The particle flux to the limiting surfaces appears to be significantly reduced in comparison with fluid scrape-off layer (SOL) models, indicating that a large fraction of the SOL ions are mirror trapped. SOL collisionality drops more than an order of magnitude below the banana regime boundary, indicating the importance of kinetic effects. Full-f 1x2v gyrokinetic simulations of SOL field lines with the GKEYLL code indicate that the fraction of ions trapped along field lines increases as collisionality drops, as a result of increased lithium evaporation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Automated prediction of lattice parameters from X-ray powder diffraction patterns

A key step in the analysis of powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data is the accurate determination of unit-cell lattice parameters. This step often requires significant human intervention and is a bottleneck that hinders efforts towards automated analysis. This work develops a series of one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNNs) trained to provide lattice parameter estimates for each crystal system. A mean absolute percentage error of approximately 10% is achieved for each crystal system, which corresponds to a 100- to 1000-fold reduction in lattice parameter search space volume. The models learn from nearly one million crystal structures contained within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database and the Cambridge Structural Database and, due to the nature of these two complimentary databases, the models generalize well across chemistries. A key component of this work is a systematic analysis of the effect of different realistic experimental non-idealities on model performance. It is found that the addition of impurity phases, baseline noise and peak broadening present the greatest challenges to learning, while zero-offset error and random intensity modulations have little effect. However, appropriate data modification schemes can be used to bolster model performance and yield reasonable predictions, even for data which simulate realistic experimental non-idealities. In order to obtain accurate results, a new approach is introduced which uses the initial machine learning estimates with existing iterative whole-pattern refinement schemes to tackle automated unit-cell solution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Scalable Tensor Methods for Nonuniform Hypergraphs

While multilinear algebra appears natural for studying the multiway interactions modeled by hypergraphs, tensor methods for general hypergraphs have been stymied by theoretical and practical barriers. A recently proposed adjacency tensor is applicable to nonuniform hypergraphs, but is prohibitively costly to form and analyze in practice. We develop tensor times same vector (TTSV) algorithms for this tensor which improve complexity from $O(n^r)$ to a low-degree polynomial in $r$, where $n$ is the number of vertices and $r$ is the maximum hyperedge size. Our algorithms are implicit, avoiding formation of the order $r$ adjacency tensor. Here, we demonstrate the flexibility and utility of our approach in practice by developing tensor-based hypergraph centrality and clustering algorithms. We also show these tensor measures offer complementary information to analogous graph-reduction approaches on data, and are also able to detect higher-order structure that many existing matrix-based approaches provably cannot.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimization of an Advanced Hybrid Wing Body Concept Using HCDstruct Version 1.2

Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft concepts continue to be promising candidates for achieving the simultaneous fuel consumption and noise reduction goals set forth by NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project. In order to evaluate the projected benefits, improvements in structural analysis at the conceptual design level were necessary; thus, NASA researchers developed the Hybrid wing body Conceptual Design and structural optimization (HCDstruct) tool to perform aeroservoelastic structural optimizations of advanced HWB concepts. In this paper, the authors present substantial updates to the HCDstruct tool and related analysis, including: the addition of four inboard and eight outboard control surfaces and two all-movable tail/rudder assemblies, providing a full aeroservoelastic analysis capability; the implementation of asymmetric load cases for structural sizing applications; and a methodology for minimizing control surface actuation power using NASTRAN SOL 200 and HCDstruct's aeroservoelastic finite-element model (FEM).

Quinlan, Jesse R.↗