Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “model inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59

An outflow powers the optical rise of the nearby, fast-evolving tidal disruption event AT2019qiz

ABSTRACT At 66 Mpc, AT2019qiz is the closest optical tidal disruption event (TDE) to date, with a luminosity intermediate between the bulk of the population and the faint-and-fast event iPTF16fnl. Its proximity allowed a very early detection and triggering of multiwavelength and spectroscopic follow-up well before maximum light. The velocity dispersion of the host galaxy and fits to the TDE light curve indicate a black hole mass ≈106 M⊙, disrupting a star of ≈1 M⊙. By analysing our comprehensive UV, optical, and X-ray data, we show that the early optical emission is dominated by an outflow, with a luminosity evolution L ∝ t2, consistent with a photosphere expanding at constant velocity (≳2000 km s−1), and a line-forming region producing initially blueshifted H and He ii profiles with v = 3000–10 000 km s−1. The fastest optical ejecta approach the velocity inferred from radio detections (modelled in a forthcoming companion paper from K. D. Alexander et al.), thus the same outflow may be responsible for both the fast optical rise and the radio emission – the first time this connection has been observed in a TDE. The light-curve rise begins 29 ± 2 d before maximum light, peaking when the photosphere reaches the radius where optical photons can escape. The photosphere then undergoes a sudden transition, first cooling at constant radius then contracting at constant temperature. At the same time, the blueshifts disappear from the spectrum and Bowen fluorescence lines (N iii) become prominent, implying a source of far-UV photons, while the X-ray light curve peaks at ≈1041 erg s−1. Assuming that these X-rays are from prompt accretion, the size and mass of the outflow are consistent with the reprocessing layer needed to explain the large optical to X-ray ratio in this and other optical TDEs, possibly favouring accretion-powered over collision-powered outflow models.

Nicholl, M.↗

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing

ABSTRACT Weak gravitational lensing is one of the most powerful tools for cosmology, while subject to challenges in quantifying subtle systematic biases. The point spread function (PSF) can cause biases in weak lensing shear inference when the PSF model does not match the true PSF that is convolved with the galaxy light profile. Although the effect of PSF size and shape errors – i.e. errors in second moments – is well studied, weak lensing systematics associated with errors in higher moments of the PSF model require further investigation. The goal of our study is to estimate their potential impact for LSST weak lensing analysis. We go beyond second moments of the PSF by using image simulations to relate multiplicative bias in shear to errors in the higher moments of the PSF model. We find that the current level of errors in higher moments of the PSF model in data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam survey can induce a ∼0.05 per cent shear bias, making this effect unimportant for ongoing surveys but relevant at the precision of upcoming surveys such as LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A unified analysis of four cosmic shear surveys

In the past few years, several independent collaborations have presented cosmological constraints from tomographic cosmic shear analyses. These analyses differ in many aspects: the datasets, the shear and photometric redshift estimation algorithms, the theory model assumptions, and the inference pipelines. To assess the robustness of the existing cosmic shear results, we present in this paper a unified analysis of four of the recent cosmic shear surveys: the Deep Lens Survey (DLS), the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS), the Science Verification data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SV), and the 450 deg$^{2}$ release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-450). By using a unified pipeline, we show how the cosmological constraints are sensitive to the various details of the pipeline. We identify several analysis choices that can shift the cosmological constraints by a significant fraction of the uncertainties. For our fiducial analysis choice, considering a Gaussian covariance, conservative scale cuts, assuming no baryonic feedback contamination, identical cosmological parameter priors and intrinsic alignment treatments, we find the constraints (mean, 16% and 84% confidence intervals) on the parameter $S_{8}\equiv \sigma_{8}(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}$ to be $S_{8}=0.94_{-0.045}^{+0.046}$ (DLS), $0.66_{-0.071}^{+0.070}$ (CFHTLenS), $0.84_{-0.061}^{+0.062}$ (DES-SV) and $0.76_{-0.049}^{+0.048}$ (KiDS-450). From the goodness-of-fit and the Bayesian evidence ratio, we determine that amongst the four surveys, the two more recent surveys, DES-SV and KiDS-450, have acceptable goodness-of-fit and are consistent with each other. Furthermore the combined constraints are $S_{8}=0.79^{+0.042}_{-0.041}$, which is in good agreement with the first year of DES cosmic shear results and recent CMB constraints from the Planck satellite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Proton decay spectroscopy of S 28 and Cl 30

States in 28 S and 30 Cl have been studied using one- and two-proton decay spectroscopy. In the first spectrometer setting, states in 28 S were populated following one-neutron knockout from a fast 29 S beam. Three new states are observed in 28 S from one- and two-proton decay. For the two-proton case the nature of the decay was investigated and found to proceed via sequential two-proton emission. For the second setting, states in 30 Cl were populated via one-proton knockout from a fast 31 Ar beam. The decay energy of the ground and first excited state were measured, with the ground-state decay energy found to be in disagreement with a previous measurement. Here, the spin and parity of these two 30 Cl states were inferred from shell-model calculations.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

X-ray Thomson scattering spectra from density functional theory molecular dynamics simulations based on a modified Chihara formula

Here, we study ab initio approaches for calculating x-ray Thomson scattering spectra from density functional theory molecular dynamics simulations based on a modified Chihara formula that expresses the inelastic contribution in terms of the dielectric function. We study the electronic dynamic structure factor computed from the Mermin dielectric function using an ab initio electron-ion collision frequency in comparison to computations using a linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT) framework for hydrogen and beryllium and investigate the dispersion of free-free and bound-free contributions to the scattering signal. A separate treatment of these contributions, where only the free-free part follows the Mermin dispersion, shows good agreement with LR-TDDFT results for ambient-density beryllium, but breaks down for highly compressed matter where the bound states become pressure ionized. LR-TDDFT is used to reanalyze x-ray Thomson scattering experiments on beryllium demonstrating strong deviations from the plasma conditions inferred with traditional analytic models at small scattering angles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nitrification is a minor source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in an agricultural landscape and declines with increasing management intensity

Abstract The long‐term contribution of nitrification to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from terrestrial ecosystems is poorly known and thus poorly constrained in biogeochemical models. Here, using Bayesian inference to couple 25 years of in situ N 2 O flux measurements with site‐specific Michaelis–Menten kinetics of nitrification‐derived N 2 O, we test the relative importance of nitrification‐derived N 2 O across six cropped and unmanaged ecosystems along a management intensity gradient in the U.S. Midwest. We found that the maximum potential contribution from nitrification to in situ N 2 O fluxes was 13%–17% in a conventionally fertilized annual cropping system, 27%–42% in a low‐input cover‐cropped annual cropping system, and 52%–63% in perennial systems including a late successional deciduous forest. Actual values are likely to be <10% of these values because of low N 2 O yields in cultured nitrifiers (typically 0.04%–8% of NH 3 oxidized) and competing sinks for available in situ. Most nitrification‐derived N 2 O was produced by ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria rather than archaea, who appeared responsible for no more than 30% of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production in all but one ecosystem. Although the proportion of nitrification‐derived N 2 O production was lowest in annual cropping systems, these ecosystems nevertheless produced more nitrification‐derived N 2 O (higher V max ) than perennial and successional ecosystems. We conclude that nitrification is minor relative to other sources of N 2 O in all ecosystems examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Poster — Thur Eve — 77: Implanted Brachythearpy Seed Movement due to Transrectal Ultrasound Probe-Induced Prostate Deformation

The study investigated the movement of implanted brachytherapy seeds upon transrectal US probe removal, providing insight into the underlying prostate deformation and an estimate of the impact on prostate dosimetry. Implanted seed distributions, one obtained with the prostate under probe compression and another with the probe removed, were reconstructed using C-arm fluoroscopy imaging. The prostate, delineated on ultrasound images, was registered to the fluoroscopy images using seeds and needle tracks identified on ultrasound. A deformation tensor and shearing model was developed to correlate probe-induced seed movement with position. Changes in prostate TG-43 dosimetry were calculated. The model was used to infer the underlying prostate deformation and to estimate the location of the prostate surface in the absence of probe compression. Seed movement patterns upon probe removal reflected elastic decompression, lateral shearing, and rectal bending. Elastic decompression was characterized by expansion in the anterior-posterior direction and contraction in the superior-inferior and lateral directions. Lateral shearing resulted in large anterior movement for extra-prostatic seeds in the lateral peripheral region. Whole prostate D90 increased up to 8 Gy, mainly due to the small but systematic seed movement associated with elastic decompression. For selected patients, lateral shearing movement increased prostate D90 by 4 Gy, due to increased dose coverage in the anterior-lateral region at the expense of the posterior-lateral region. The effect of shearing movement on whole prostate D90 was small compared to elastic decompression due to the subset of peripheral seeds involved, but is expected to have greater consequences for local dose coverage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electroreflectance study of the effect of {gamma} radiation on the optical properties of epitaxial GaN films

Experimental data on the electroreflectance spectra of {gamma}-irradiated epitaxial GaN films on sapphire are reported. The irradiation doses are 10{sup 5}-2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} rad. The theoretical electroreflectance spectra calculated on the basis of a model of three types of transitions are in agreement with experimental data with reasonable accuracy. The energies and broadenings of the transitions derived in the context of the model give grounds to infer that, in the GaN films, there are internal stresses dependent on the {gamma}-irradiation dose.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiverse: Bayesian model selection for neural networks

Multiverse is a code repository for a set of tools for Bayesian model selection for neural networks. The goal of the tools is to provide capabilities for selecting among prior and model specifications for Bayesian neural networks. Multiverse will include tools for creating Bayesian neural networks, evaluating the Bayesian model evidence, and performing inference in Bayesian neural networks. These components are written in Python, a high-level programming language that takes advantage of the Python ecosystem of high-quality open-source packages for machine learning and signal processing.

Klein, Natalie↗

Asc-Seurat: analytical single-cell Seurat-based web application

Abstract Background Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized the study of transcriptomes, arising as a powerful tool for discovering and characterizing cell types and their developmental trajectories. However, scRNA-seq analysis is complex, requiring a continuous, iterative process to refine the data and uncover relevant biological information. A diversity of tools has been developed to address the multiple aspects of scRNA-seq data analysis. However, an easy-to-use web application capable of conducting all critical steps of scRNA-seq data analysis is still lacking. Summary We present Asc-Seurat, a feature-rich workbench, providing an user-friendly and easy-to-install web application encapsulating tools for an all-encompassing and fluid scRNA-seq data analysis. Asc-Seurat implements functions from the Seurat package for quality control, clustering, and genes differential expression. In addition, Asc-Seurat provides a pseudotime module containing dozens of models for the trajectory inference and a functional annotation module that allows recovering gene annotation and detecting gene ontology enriched terms. We showcase Asc-Seurat’s capabilities by analyzing a peripheral blood mononuclear cell dataset. Conclusions Asc-Seurat is a comprehensive workbench providing an accessible graphical interface for scRNA-seq analysis by biologists. Asc-Seurat significantly reduces the time and effort required to analyze and interpret the information in scRNA-seq datasets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Geophysical estimation of shallow permafrost distribution and properties in an ice-wedge polygon-dominated Arctic tundra region

Shallow permafrost distribution and characteristics are important for predicting ecosystem feedbacks to a changing climate over decadal to century timescales because they can drive active layer deepening and land surface deformation, which in turn can significantly affect hydrologic and biogeochemical responses, including greenhouse gas dynamics. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments- Arctic, we have investigated shallow Arctic permafrost characteristics at a site in Barrow, Alaska, with the objective of improving our understanding of the spatial distribution of shallow permafrost, its associated properties, and its links with landscape microtopography. To meet this objective, we have acquired and integrated a variety of information, including electric resistance tomography data, frequency-domain electromagnetic induction data, laboratory core analysis, petrophysical studies, high-resolution digital surface models, and color mosaics inferred from kite-based landscape imaging. The results of our study provide a comprehensive and high-resolution examination of the distribution and nature of shallow permafrost in the Arctic tundra, including the estimation of ice content, porosity, and salinity. Among other results, porosity in the top 2 m varied between 85% (besides ice wedges) and 40%, and was negatively correlated with fluid salinity. Salinity directly influenced ice and unfrozen water content and indirectly influenced the soil organic matter content. A relatively continuous but depth-variable increase in salinity led to a partially unfrozen saline layer (cryopeg) located below the top of the permafrost. The cryopeg environment could lead to year-round microbial production of greenhouse gases. Results also indicated a covariability between topography and permafrost characteristics including icewedge and salinity distribution. In addition to providing insight about the Arctic ecosystem, through integration of lab-based petrophysical results with field data, this study also quantified the key controls on electric resistivity at this Arctic permafrost site, including salinity, porosity, water content, ice content, soil organic matter content, and lithologic properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: estimation and targeted prevention

Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin’s index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Top, electroweak and recent results from CDF and combinations from the Tevatron

Data collected at the Tevatron proton-antiproton collider are still producing interesting results. Measurements of QCD, top and electroweak quantities are competitive to LHC because of the low center of mass energy, √ s = 1.96 GeV and due to the fact that this is proton-antiproton data. This report describes the CDF measurement of the prompt photon cross section and the determination of the effective leptonic electroweak mixing angle by CDF and D0 experiments. The combination of the two results gives a precise measurement of sin 2 θ$lep\atop{eff}$ from which the W mass is inferred by using standard model calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term manipulations: Alaskan Benchmark Data and Model runs

This submission aimed to assess differences in short-term step warming manipulations and long-term chronic response to climate change in Alaskan ecosystems. Briefly, climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (< 10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.The model used in the current study is available publicly (https://github.com/jinyun1tang/ECOSYS), and the current submission contains the python/ matlab codes for analyzing output from the model (includng a readme file to explain the codes). The benchmark data, also enclosed, was collected from a range of published and publicly available sources (extracted using GRABIT: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/7173-grabit). These sources describe warming induced changes in tundra/ boreal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous System Subversion Tactics: Prototypes and Recommended Countermeasures

One of the fielding requirements for Advanced and Small Modular Reactors (AR/SMR) is the ability to support remote and autonomous operations. Autonomous Control Systems (ACS) are found on platforms such as Autonomous Space Vehicles, Cruise Missiles, and advanced driver-assistance systems. Each of these ACS implementations depends upon a set of decision support subsystems responsible for supporting Autonomous Mission Managers (names vary based upon field and author preferences). These Autonomous Mission Managers receive inputs from system sensors (e.g., LIDAR collection from an automobile travelling down a street; transients from a nuclear reactor), and perform a set of classifications (e.g., Red Traffic Light; Small Pedestrian at 10m; Load Rejection; Single Coolant Pump Trip), and then use these classifications in combination with recommendation algorithms to achieve platform goals (e.g., Stop the Vehicle at the Traffic Light, Avoid the Small Pedestrian; Trip the Reactor to prevent a Safety Event). The design, implementation, and fielding of an ACS capability will alter the cyber-attack surface such that existing risk management plans will need to be updated to include how to protect and defend against data-science and decision-support-system attack classes. These attack classes would include protection of the design and training environments where algorithm selection and testing and training data would be obvious attack vectors. These attack classes would also require an informed set of detection and response procedures to identify anomalous behaviors and document best practices for anomaly assessment and vulnerability mitigation and remediation. Last year we published a Cyber Threat Assessment Methodology for Autonomous and Remote Operations for AR/SMRs along with a companion publication on Cyber Attack and Defense Use Cases. The focus of the methodology was on describing and enumerating ACS processes, components, and functions such that security engineers could: evaluate subversion options against the target; identify threat actor attributes and capabilities derived from each subversion option; and identify security controls and response countermeasures. The Use Cases document offered detailed methodology examples including an assessment of a Military Base SMR, an Autonomous System Decision Loop, and implementation of AR/SMR Machine Learning algorithms. Our proposal at the end of last year was to focus on implementation of subversion prototypes related to the last Use Case area: AR/SMR Machine Learning (ML) Algorithms. We included six attack scenarios in our Use Cases paper: a Poisoning Attack against ML functions implemented using an FPGA; a Trojaning Attack against ML classifiers exploiting the excitability of Nuclear Engineers; a Backdooring Attack against ML Training environments to ensure persistence of an attack vector; a False Positive Evasion Attack against multi-factor Access Control Systems using clever inputs; an Inference Attack against ML models by an Insider with access to the Operational environment; and an Adversarial Reprogramming Attack against a Material Access Control Video Surveillance System. At the beginning of this year these six attack scenarios were provided to our research teams at Georgia Tech and Idaho State University and each team successfully implemented a subversion attack against a ML implementation to include transient misclassifications. While this is a notable outcome from this type of research, this paper offers the reader insight into not only how to structure and execute these types of attacks, but into the thought process behind how the researcher investigated the problem space, performed initial algorithm implementation, and the trial-and-error behind arriving at the successful subversion prototypes. We include in this paper a set of associated Scenarios on how these subversion prototypes could be implemented and an initial set of guidance for AR/SMR architects, Nuclear Regulators, and Cyber Defenders to implement awareness and defense capabilities into their current operational portfolios.

42 ENGINEERING↗