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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, attributing extreme events and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here, we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on pre-industrial control simulations and historical simulations, which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, we identify the three highest-priority single-forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as “Assessment Fast Track” simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC: simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full-column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcing experiments, when these are considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration-driven simulations are prioritised for attribution, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.

Gillett, Nathan P. [Environment and Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distilling physical origins of hardness in multi-principal element alloys directly from ensemble neural network models

Abstract Despite a plethora of data being generated on the mechanical behavior of multi-principal element alloys, a systematic assessment remains inaccessible via Edisonian approaches. We approach this challenge by considering the specific case of alloy hardness, and present a machine-learning framework that captures the essential physical features contributing to hardness and allows high-throughput exploration of multi-dimensional compositional space. The model, tested on diverse datasets, was used to explore and successfully predict hardness in Al x Ti y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y , Hf x Co y (CrFeNi) 1- x - y and Al x (TiZrHf) 1- x systems supported by data from density-functional theory predicted phase stability and ordering behavior. The experimental validation of hardness was done on TiZrHfAl x . The selected systems pose diverse challenges due to the presence of ordering and clustering pairs, as well as vacancy-stabilized novel structures. We also present a detailed model analysis that integrates local partial-dependencies with a compositional-stimulus and model-response study to derive material-specific insights from the decision-making process.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Engineering Escherichia coli to produce medium chain oleochemicals from C 2 substrates

Many strategies to create a circular bioeconomy have been proposed. To be successful, CO 2 must be reduced with renewable energy into chemical building blocks, from which the chemical industry can be supported. Circular strategies include leveraging photosynthesis to produce sugar and lipid intermediates or renewable electricity to produce hydrogen or other electron carriers to support CO 2 reduction. Acetogens can anaerobically reduce CO 2 with H 2 to produce mixtures of small organic molecules in gas fermentations. We previously demonstrated that acetate, a common product of gas fermentation, can be converted to the model oleochemical dodecanol in engineered Escherichia coli. Here, we explored the conversion of ethanol and mixtures of ethanol and acetate to the same model oleochemicals. Co-feeding ethanol can supply both carbon and additional reducing power relative to acetate alone. In this work, we engineered E. coli to catabolize ethanol and expressed two distinct ethanol metabolism pathways in different operons and combined them with improved engineered acetate activation. We evaluated the performance of these operons in dodecanol-producing strains when fed ethanol or acetate and found ethanol to be a better carbon source when judged by product titers. The engineered strains fed ethanol produced about two-fold more dodecanol than the strains fed acetate. This increase was in part, due to change in product distribution. Cells fed ethanol produced predominantly dodecanol, whereas cells fed acetate generated a mixture of dodecanol and dodecanoic acid. Dodecanol titers were further improved by employing feeding strategies in controlled bioreactors.

Escherichia coli↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Case Study of the Glycoside Hydrolase Enzyme Mechanism Using an Automated QM-Cluster Model Building Toolkit

Glycoside hydrolase enzymes are important for hydrolyzing the β-1,4 glycosidic bond in polysaccharides for deconstruction of carbohydrates. The two-step retaining reaction mechanism of Glycoside Hydrolase Family 7 (GH7) was explored with different sized QM-cluster models built by the Residue Interaction Network ResidUe Selector (RINRUS) software using both the wild-type protein and its E217Q mutant. The first step is the glycosylation, in which the acidic residue 217 donates a proton to the glycosidic oxygen leading to bond cleavage. In the subsequent deglycosylation step, one water molecule migrates into the active site and attacks the anomeric carbon. Residue interaction-based QM-cluster models lead to reliable structural and energetic results for proposed glycoside hydrolase mechanisms. The free energies of activation for glycosylation in the largest QM-cluster models were predicted to be 19.5 and 31.4 kcal mol −1 for the wild-type protein and its E217Q mutant, which agree with experimental trends that mutation of the acidic residue Glu217 to Gln will slow down the reaction; and are higher in free energy than the deglycosylation transition states (13.8 and 25.5 kcal mol −1 for the wild-type protein and its mutant, respectively). For the mutated protein, glycosylation led to a low-energy product. This thermodynamic sink may correspond to the intermediate state which was isolated in the X-ray crystal structure. Hence, the glycosylation is validated to be the rate-limiting step in both the wild-type and mutated enzyme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lipkin model on a quantum computer

Atomic nuclei are important laboratories for exploring and testing new insights into the universe, such as experiments to directly detect dark matter or explore properties of neutrinos. The targets of interest are often heavy, complex nuclei that challenge our ability to reliably model them (as well as quantify the uncertainty of those models) with classical computers. Hence there is great interest in applying quantum computation to nuclear structure for these applications. As an early step in this direction, especially with regards to the uncertainties in the relevant quantum calculations, we develop circuits to implement variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithms for the Lipkin-Meshkov-Glick model, which is often used in the nuclear physics community as a testbed for many-body methods. Here, we present quantum circuits for VQE for two and three particles and discuss the construction of circuits for more particles. Implementing the VQE for a two-particle system on the IBM Quantum Experience, we identify initialization and two-qubit gates as the largest sources of error. We find that error mitigation procedures reduce the errors in the results significantly, but additional quantum hardware improvements are needed for quantum calculations to be sufficiently accurate to be competitive with the best current classical methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Earthquake Source Parameters with 3D Wavespeed Models in California and Nevada

Seismic tomography harnesses earthquake data to explore the inaccessible structure of the Earth. Adjoint waveform tomography (AWT), a method of seismic tomography, updates the tomographic model by optimizing the fit between observed earthquake data and synthetic waveforms. The synthetic data are calculated by solving the wave equation through a given 3D model. An important requirement to calculating synthetics is the source information (location, centroid time, depth, and moment tensor). Errors in source information affect the quality of the synthetics produced, which in turn can limit how structure can be inferred in the AWT workflow. Here, to test the effect of updating source information, we used MTTime (Chiang, 2020), a time-domain full-waveform moment tensor inversion code, to calculate the moment tensors and depths of 118 earthquakes that occurred in California and Nevada over a 20-yr period. We calculated 3D Green’s functions using a 3D seismic wavespeed model of California and Nevada (Doody et al., 2023b). We show that the inverted solutions provide better waveform fits than the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and increase usable, well-correlated data by up to 7%. Therefore, we argue that recalculating source parameters should be considered in AWT workflows, particularly for smaller magnitude events (⁠M w > 5.0).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and modeling uncertainty impact evaluation in neutronics core simulation

Uncertainty analysis is a critical requirement in reactor simulation as it is used to quantify the reliability of best-estimate calculation. A comprehensive uncertainty analysis should characterize all sources of uncertainties in a computationally-feasible and scientifically-defendable manner. Here we employ a well-established reduced order modeling (ROM) based uncertainty quantification methodology to propagate uncertainties throughout neutronic calculations. ROM relies on recent advances in randomized data mining techniques applied to large data streams. In our proposed implementation, the nuclear data uncertainties are first propagated from multi-group level through lattice physics calculation to generate few-group parameter uncertainties, described using a vector of mean values and a covariance matrix. Employing an ROM-based compression of the covariance matrix, the few-group uncertainties are then propagated through downstream core simulation in a computationally efficient manner. This straightforward approach, albeit efficient as compared to brute force forward and/or adjoint-based methods, often employs a number of assumptions that have been unquestioned in the literature of neutronic uncertainty analysis. This manuscript argues that these assumptions could introduce another source of uncertainty referred to as modeling uncertainties, whose magnitude needs to be quantified in tandem with nuclear data uncertainties. Thus, our primary goal is to explore the interactions between these two uncertainty sources in order to assess whether modeling uncertainties have an impact on parameter uncertainties. To explore this endeavor, the impact of a number of modeling assumptions on core attributes uncertainties is quantified. The study employs a CANDU reactor model, with Serpent and NEWT as lattice physics solvers and NESTLE-C as core simulator. The modeling assumptions investigated include those related with the uncertainty propagation method employed, e.g., deterministic vs. stochastic, the few-group energy structure employed to represent the cross-sections, the resonance treatment in lattice physics calculation, the reference values for the cross-section, and the number of samples employed to render ROM compression. Results indicate that some of the modeling assumptions could have a non-negligible impact on the core responses propagated uncertainties, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive approach to combine parameter and modeling uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

CoolPINNs: A physics-informed neural network modeling of active cooling in vascular systems

Emerging technologies like hypersonic aircraft, space exploration vehicles, and batteries avail fluid circulation in embedded microvasculatures for efficient thermal regulation. Modeling is vital during the design and operational phases of these engineered systems. However, many challenges exist in developing a modeling framework. What is lacking is an accurate framework that (i) captures sharp jumps in the thermal flux across complex vasculature layouts, (ii) deals with oblique derivatives (involving tangential and normal components), (iii) handles nonlinearity because of radiative heat transfer, (iv) provides a high-speed forecast for real-time monitoring, and (v) facilitates robust inverse modeling. Here, this paper addresses these challenges by availing the power of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). We develop a fast, reliable, and accurate Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) framework for vascular-based thermal regulation—called CoolPINNs: a PINNs-based modeling framework for active cooling. The proposed mesh-less framework elegantly overcomes all the mentioned challenges. The significance of the reported research is multi-fold. First, the framework is valuable for real-time monitoring of thermal regulatory systems because of rapid forecasting. Second, researchers can address complex thermoregulation designs since the approach is meshless. Finally, the framework facilitates systematic parameter identification and inverse modeling studies, perhaps the most significant utility of the current framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Low Intensity Fires: Lessons Learned from 2012 RxCADRE

Coupled fire-atmosphere models are increasingly being used to study low-intensity fires, such as those that are used in prescribed fire applications. Thus, the need arises to evaluate these models for their ability to accurately represent fire spread in marginal burning conditions. In this study, wind and fuel data collected during the Prescribed Fire Combustion and Atmospheric Dynamics Research Experiments (RxCADRE) fire campaign were used to generate initial and boundary conditions for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. We present a novel method to obtain fuels representation at the model grid scale using a combination of imagery, machine learning, and field sampling. Several methods to generate wind input conditions for the model from eight different anemometer measurements are explored. We find a strong sensitivity of fire outcomes to wind inputs. This result highlights the critical need to include variable wind fields as inputs in modeling marginal fire conditions. This work highlights the complexities of comparing physics-based model results against observations, which are more acute in marginal burning conditions, where stronger sensitivities to local variability in wind and fuels drive fire outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of high intensity orbital angular momentum beams for laser–plasma interactions

In this work, we explore the field of high intensity orbital angular momentum (OAM) beams, their generation with spiral phase mirrors, and the theory behind modeling both ideal and realistic beams. We explore OAM beam asymmetries introduced by aberrations in the beam, manufacturing defects, and bandwidth. A full three-dimensional description of the paraxial Laguerre–Gaussian (LG) modes suitable for modeling beams down to f/2 focal geometries is derived. A perturbative approach to modeling asymmetric OAM beams is introduced showing that only three LG modes are sufficient to model a wide variety of OAM asymmetries. The models are compared with experimental results followed by a discussion on the future of high intensity OAM beams in plasma physics.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interactive Visual Study of Multiple Attributes Learning Model of X-Ray Scattering Images

Existing interactive visualization tools for deep learning are mostly applied to the training, debugging, and refinement of neural network models working on natural images. However, visual analytics tools are lacking for the specific application of x-ray image classification with multiple structural attributes. In this paper, we present an interactive system for domain scientists to visually study the multiple attributes learning models applied to x-ray scattering images. It allows domain scientists to interactively explore this important type of scientific images in embedded spaces that are defined on the model prediction output, the actual labels, and the discovered feature space of neural networks. Users are allowed to flexibly select instance images, their clusters, and compare them regarding the specified visual representation of attributes. The exploration is guided by the manifestation of model performance related to mutual relationships among attributes, which often affect the learning accuracy and effectiveness. The system thus supports domain scientists to improve the training dataset and model, find questionable attributes labels, and identify outlier images or spurious data clusters. Case studies and scientists feedback demonstrate its functionalities and usefulness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Descriptor Aided Bayesian Optimization for Many-Level Qualitative Variables With Materials Design Applications

Abstract Engineering design often involves qualitative and quantitative design variables, which requires systematic methods for the exploration of these mixed-variable design spaces. Expensive simulation techniques, such as those required to evaluate optimization objectives in materials design applications, constitute the main portion of the cost of the design process and underline the need for efficient search strategies—Bayesian optimization (BO) being one of the most widely adopted. Although recent developments in mixed-variable Bayesian optimization have shown promise, the effects of dimensionality of qualitative variables have not been well studied. High-dimensional qualitative variables, i.e., with many levels, impose a large design cost as they typically require a larger dataset to quantify the effect of each level on the optimization objective. We address this challenge by leveraging domain knowledge about underlying physical descriptors, which embody the physics of the underlying physical phenomena, to infer the effect of unobserved levels that have not been sampled yet. We show that physical descriptors can be intuitively embedded into the latent variable Gaussian process approach—a mixed-variable GP modeling technique—and used to selectively explore levels of qualitative variables in the Bayesian optimization framework. This physics-informed approach is particularly useful when one or more qualitative variables are high dimensional (many-level) and the modeling dataset is small, containing observations for only a subset of levels. Through a combination of mathematical test functions and materials design applications, our method is shown to be robust to certain types of incomplete domain knowledge and significantly reduces the design cost for problems with high-dimensional qualitative variables.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Subsurface fluvial sediments beneath InSight on Mars from geophysical constraints

Subsurface structure investigation on Mars is crucial for understanding its geological evolution and past hydrological conditions. Elysium Planitia (EP), located near the hypothesized ancient ocean shorelines, could contain clues for past water activity and paleoclimate. Here we present better-constrained subsurface models beneath InSight extending to ~800 m depth, obtained from joint inversion of seismic and seismoacoustic coupling data, and use the well-resolved subsurface structure to explore the lithological profile through rock physics models. The derived subsurface lithology agrees well with local geological context and exhibits a shallow 60-m-thick low-rigidity layer consistent with hydrated sedimentary materials. Despite possible contributions of aeolian and volcanic deposits, we favor the interpretation that the low-rigidity layer originated from fluvial activity in EP during the Hesperian or Hesperian-to-Amazonian epoch, as supported by adjacent paleo-shoreline morphology observations. These results hint at a period of warmer paleoclimate at low latitudes, possibly during high-obliquity phases of Mars’ rotational axis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗