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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

spopt: a python package for solving spatial optimization problems in PySAL

Spatial optimization is a major spatial analytical tool in management and planning, the significance of which cannot be overstated. Spatial optimization models play an important role in designing and managing effective and efficient service systems such as transportation, education, public health, environmental protection, and commercial investment among others. To this end, spopt (spatial optimization) is under active development for the inclusion of newly proposed models and methods for regionalization, facility location, and transportation-oriented solutions (Feng et al., 2021). Spopt is a submodule in the open-source spatial analysis library PySAL (Python Spatial Analysis Library) founded by Dr. Sergio J. Rey and Dr. Luc Anselin in 2005 (Rey et al., 2015, 2021; Rey & Anselin, 2007). The goal of developing spopt is to provide management and decision-making support to all relevant practitioners and to further promote the appropriate and meaningful application of spatial optimization models in practice.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Assembling Multiphysics Nuclear Reactor Simulations Using the MOOSE Framework

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [1] is an open-source, parallel finite element framework which provides the foundation for many advanced modeling and simulation tools developed under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program [2] for the analysis of advanced reactors. The MOOSE framework provides the common foundational capability on which many NEAMS codes for reactor analysis are built. The MOOSE framework also includes several systems to assemble unique workflows and couplingamong MOOSE-based applications. In particular, the MultiApp and Transfer Systems are widely used to assemble different MOOSE-based or MOOSE-wrapped physics applications together to perform loosely or tightly coupled multiphysics simulations. The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB) [3] hosts publicly available nuclear reactor multiphysics simulation examples which leverage MOOSE’s MultiApp System to meet the modeling needs of different reactor types. The flexibility and robustness of coupling provided by MOOSE permits rapid development of coupled physics models for a wide range of reactor types and events

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reservoir Characterization and Techno-Economic Analysis of Enhanced Geothermal and Closed-Loop Systems in the Wattenberg Field of the Denver-Julesburg Basin, Colorado

This report provides details of reservoir characterization and techno-economic analysis for enhanced geothermal systems and closed-loop geothermal systems in the Denver-Julesburg Basin Wattenberg area. The analysis contributes to the Geothermal Limitless Approach to Drilling Efficiencies (GLADE) project, a multi-institutional research initiative focused on advancing geothermal energy development by reducing drilling costs and improving the rate of penetration. The GLADE project brings together national laboratories, academic institutions, and industry partners, including the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office, Occidental Petroleum, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Colorado School of Mines, Louisiana State University, Texas A&M University, and several drilling technology companies. As part of this effort, NLR developed and applied slender-body theory modeling tools and the GEOPHIRES simulator to support techno-economic analysis. The slender-body theory wellbore simulator evaluated thermal performance in U-loop, Eavor-type multilateral, and enhanced geothermal system well configurations. Results indicated that an optimized single U-loop design delivers an outlet temperature of 168.8 degrees Celsius,stabilizing at a final outlet temperature of 135.3 degrees Celsius. Heat production also improved significantly, with an average thermal output of 16.9 MWth and a final thermal output of 11.0 MWth. These results provided critical baseline data for selecting optimized systems for techno-economic analysis. Building on these outputs, NLR applied the GEOPHIRES techno-economic simulator to estimate the levelized cost of electricity for both the Eavor multilateral and enhanced geothermal systems. The sensitivity analysis showed that drilling costs exert a particularly strong impact on the levelized cost of electricity of multilateral systems. Therefore, advances in drilling technology and improved drilling rates could yield significant gains in the economic performance of these systems. In this context, the GLADE project directly supports the U.S. Department of Energy's mission to reduce the cost of geothermal energy and accelerate the deployment of next-generation geothermal technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DETECTING FIRE WITH MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED VISUAL MONITORING FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ENVIRONMENTS

Nuclear power plants are experiencing significant cost challenges to remain competitive with other energy-generation utilities. Unlike other industries, the cost of operation and maintenance activities is mostly attributed to workforce costs. To mitigate this, nuclear power plant stakeholders are increasingly interested in the development and deployment of machine learning methods to potentially automate or augment manually intensive tasks to reduce costs, especially for monitoring activities. One monitoring function that is visually demanding and that can occur frequently to meet the requirements of a fire protection program is visually monitoring an area for fire occurrence. Currently, fire watch activities consist of a worker physically stationed at a given location with the sole responsibility of observing a given area to ensure a fire is detected and mitigated promptly. This effort focused on the development and evaluation of a suitable deep convolutional neural network to classify individual video frames at a sub-second frequency for the occurrence of “fire” and “no fire” in varying industrial environments similar to nuclear power plants. It is believed that a trained neural network model could be integrated with existing facility video surveillance camera feeds to generate alerts when fire inferences occur in individual frames captured at sub-second temporal resolutions. Extensive effort was dedicated to identifying and curating suitable imagery training data representing varying environments and scene settings with and without flame features to maximize generalization in nuclear power plant environments. The data collection effort resulted in the aggregation of a large, labeled image library exceeding 12,000 images to support model training for diverse industrial environments. A deep neural network model incorporating parallel multi-scale capabilities was developed and trained to support accurate image-based detection of flame incidents of varying sizes and spectral feature properties within heterogeneous scenes. Analysis results show that the trained model can achieve high inference accuracy despite heterogeneous scene environments and components. Testing accuracy exceeded 95.0 percent with very low false positive and false negative inferences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resonant Soft X-ray Scattering Reveals Hierarchical Structure in a Multicomponent Vapor-Deposited Glass

Multiphase vapor-deposited glasses are an important class of materials for organic electronics, particularly organic photovoltaics and thermoelectrics. These blends are frequently regarded as molecular alloys and there have been few studies of their structure at nanometer scales. Here, in this work, we show that a codeposited system of TPD (N,N'-bis(3-methylphenyl)-N,N'-diphenylbenzidine) and DO37 (disperse orange 37), two small molecule glass-formers, separates into amorphous, compositionally distinct phases with a domain size and spacing ca. 10s of nanometers that depends on substrate temperature during deposition. Domains rich in one of the two components become larger and more pure at higher deposition temperatures. We use resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) complemented with atomic force microscopy (AFM) and photoinduced force microscopy to measure the phase separation, topography, and purity of the deposited films. A forward-simulation approach to RSoXS analysis, the National Institute of Standards and Technology RSoXS Simulation Suite (NIST RSoXS simulation suite), is used with models developed from AFM images to evaluate the energy dependence of scattering across multiple length scales and interpret the RSoXS with respect to structure within the films. We find that the RSoXS is sensitive to a length scale of phase separation buried within the film that is consistent with the surface composition profile, and correlates to the topography to an extent that depends on substrate temperature. We demonstrate that vacuum scattering, which is often ignored in RSoXS analysis, contributes significantly to the features and energy dependence of the RSoXS pattern, and then illustrate how to properly account for vacuum scattering to analyze films with significant roughness. We then use this analysis framework to understand structure development mechanisms that occur during vapor deposition of a TPD-DO37 codeposited glass with results that outline paths to tune morphology in multicomponent materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Taweret: a Python package for Bayesian model mixing

Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that the fidelity of each model is preserved in the final result. Practical tools and analysis suites that facilitate such methods are therefore needed. Taweret introduces BMM to existing Bayesian uncertainty quantification efforts. Currently, Taweret contains three individual Bayesian model mixing techniques, each pertaining to a different type of problem structure; we encourage the future inclusion of user-developed mixing methods. Taweret’s first use case is in nuclear physics, but the package has been structured such that it should be adaptable to any research engaged in model comparison or model mixing.

Ingles, Kevin↗

CFD Simulations of Lower Plenum Mixing

Review of model development and validation performed in the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) program for thermal mixing at the outlet of High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs). Understanding the mixing that occurs in the lower plenum in an HTGR is necessary to facilitate design improvements and to perform reactor safety analysis. Numerical models are one possible approach to gain a better understanding of mixing in the lower plenum. Given the complexity of the geometry and the intense mixing present, it is important to perform validation of numerical models. Three models have been developed during FY2025: a porous media with Pronghorn, a Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) with STAR-CCM+, and a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) with NekRS. The reference facility is a scaled-down version of the lower plenum of the High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor - Pebble-bed Module (HTR-PM) demonstration reactor. Preliminary results of the porous media and the RANS shows general good agreement against experimental benchmark data. Future work will leverage high-fidelity results obtained through LES to guide model selection and improvements to the lower-fidelity models, with particular attention to the Pronghorn porous media.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Machine-learning interatomic potentials for interfaces in all-solid-state batteries: Perspectives on training data, model selection, and validation

Interfaces play a pivotal role in dictating the performance and reliability of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs), where complex electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena at grain boundaries (GBs) and interfaces can lead to degradation and failure. Traditional atomistic simulation methods, such as first-principles calculations and classical molecular dynamics, face limitations in modeling these interfaces due to either high computational cost or insufficient transferability to the diverse atomic environments evolving at interfaces. Machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have emerged as a transformative approach, enabling large-scale, high-accuracy simulations of disordered and chemically complex systems by leveraging the predictability of machine learning models trained on first-principles data. Recent applications of MLIPs have demonstrated their ability to capture intricate behaviors at ASSB interfaces, including ion transport, interfacial evolution, and degradation mechanisms, with accuracy and efficiency unattainable by conventional methods. This prospective paper presents comprehensive analysis and practical guidance for MLIP development for GBs and interfaces in ASSBs, with a focus on three key pillars: data generation, model selection, and validation. Here, we review the current state of MLIP applications for GBs and interfaces in both general and ASSB-specific materials, highlighting best practices and challenges in constructing diverse and representative datasets, choosing appropriate machine learning architectures, and rigorously validating model performance. We also discuss emerging strategies and opportunities for improved reliability and efficiency of MLIPs to simulate realistic interfaces in ASSBs.

Energy - Storage↗

CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case

Poster on “CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. The cost of designing, permitting, constructing, operating, and closing a CO2 storage project is of vital importance to project developers. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) Model to provide quantitative cost-based insights to support developers planning CO2 injection and storage projects. This study presents a collaborative economic analysis applying TALES with data from the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III project led by the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology to estimate potential costs incurred during the implementation of a real-world commercial-scale carbon storage project. Scenario analysis was implemented in which different operational and cost attributes were varied and the associated cost implications observed. Key results data and project cost summary metrics, first-year breakeven price of CO2 ($/tonne) and net present value (NPV), are presented for base and alternative cases. Output provides a unique perspective for project stakeholders towards evaluating the influence of different operational strategies and financing approaches on overall project cost and financial viability.

carbon storage↗

Seismicity-constrained fault detection and characterization with a multitask machine learning model

Geological fault detection and characterization are crucial for understanding subsurface dynamics across scales. While methods for fault delineation based on either seismicity location analysis or seismic image reflector discontinuity are well-established, a systematic approach that integrates both data types remains absent. We develop a novel machine learning model that unifies seismic reflector images and seismicity location information to automatically identify geological faults and characterize their geometrical properties. The model encodes a seismic image and a seismicity location image separately, and fuses the encoded features with a spatial-channel attention fusion module to improve the learning of important features in both inputs. We design an automated strategy to generate high-quality synthetic training data and labels. To improve the realism of the seismicity location image, we include random seismicity noise and missing seismicity location associated with some of the faults. We validate the model’s efficacy and accuracy using synthetic data examples and two field data examples. Moreover, we show that fine-tuning the trained model with a small, domain-specific dataset enhances its fidelity for field data applications. The results demonstrate that integrating seismicity location and seismic images into a unified framework allows the end-to-end neural network to achieve higher fidelity and accuracy in delineating subsurface faults and their geometrical properties compared with image-only fault detection methods. Our approach offers an adaptive data-driven tool for geological fault characterization and seismic hazard mitigation, bridging the gap between seismicity location and image-based fault detection methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Platform for efficient large-scale storage and analysis of multi-omics data in plant and microbial systems (Final Technical Report)

Genomic variation at the sequence level fundamentally affects the phenotypic state of all organisms at all stages of development, while dynamic processes such as changes in the epigenome (e.g. DNA methylation state) and transcriptome regulate the specific phenotype expressed at any given state of development based upon that genomic variation. In plants, DNA methylation is a particularly important mechanism for both regulating transcriptomic expression and for management of genomic variations that could be deleterious to the organism due to the presence of active retrotransposons in plant genomes. While DNA methylation is heritable, it is also dynamic through a given plant’s development and life cycle, particularly during the development from seed to mature specimen suggesting variations in DNA methylation could be critical regulators of biologically and commercially important phenotypes such as time to flowering; in addition, plant DNA methylation is more complex than that of animals, with methylation of CHG and CHH trinucleotides evident in addition to the better-known CG methylation. The complexity of plant DNA methylation and its interplay with genomic sequence variation, transcriptomics and other epigenomic factors demand a storage and analysis framework that can cope with the complexity both within a single specimen and with analyses that span many individuals and even many species, such as attempts to extend models from model organisms to commercially relevant species. In addition to complexity, the rapid development and proliferation of sequencing technology has led to an explosion of data volume that conventional storage and analysis solutions will likely be unable to cope with in the long run. We proposed to study these with suitable distributed storage and computation and therefore for the application of cloud computing to biological analyses; integrate with existing data sources and compatible with virtually any interface use case, from fully automated shell scripts to notebooks and do all these at scale in this STTR grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Percheron Power Archimedes Screw Turbine Analysis (Abstract)

The development of the Percheron Power (Percheron) composite Archimedes screw turbine (AST) is based upon employing newly developed theoretical mathematical models for optimizing the water volume carried through the AST for a given diameter, combined with minimizing efficiency losses due to bypass flow and friction. The key feasibility issues associated with producing the composite blades will be to understand the strength, fatigue, and wear performance of the AST blades and associated components, and how these factors change along the length of the turbine. To get to this understanding of material property requirements, Percheron needs free-surface computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the AST designs and to perform interactive modeling between the turbine blade optimization and component design based on finite element method stress analysis (FEA). The workscope and analyses requested by Percheron in the Small Business Voucher (SBV) program are well aligned with PNNL capability and recent work experience in performing CFD and FEA analysis for hydropower and marine energy turbines. The CFD analysis will provide estimates of power, efficiency, and surface forces on the blades. The forces on the blade will be transferred to the FEA analysis that will be used to evaluate the material stresses. The CFD and FEA analyses will be repeated for different AST designs provided to PNNL by Percheron. The work conducted in this SBV project will complement the existing Percheron FOA project by providing better defined parameters for design and material selection for the turbine unit prior to manufacture of initial test units.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Progressive collapse analysis of stiffened panel structure with consideration of actual welding distortion and residual stresses

To date, inclusion of welding distortion and residual stresses in determining the strength of marine structures is based on empirical formulations due to welding complexity. In this study, a more feasible numerical model was developed from the perspective of inherent strain theory. The accuracy of this simplified numerical model was confirmed by transient thermo-elastic–plastic finite element analysis using a novel dynamic mesh refining and iterative substructure method which is 50 times faster than conventional finite element method. Welding distortion by the two numerical approaches was validated with experimental measurement. The collapse analyses indicated that the inherent strain model predicted a compressive strength and load-displacement curve with high accuracy, as validated by the transient thermo-mechanical model. The global stiffness and the ultimate strength of the welded structure would be overestimated by about 22% if no welding effects were considered. The proposed computation procedure for determining the ultimate strength of welded structures is accurate, simple, and practical and enables improvement of ultimate strength through optimization of welding joint design to reduce the welding residual stress and distortion.

Huang, Hui↗

Development of data‐driven exponential integrators with application to modeling of delay photocurrents

Abstract Radiation‐induced photocurrent effects represent a threat to microelectronic components operating in space, manmade and terrestrial radiation environments. Analysis of these threats by circuit simulations requires accurate and computationally efficient compact models. Most existing compact models are based on closed form analytic solutions of the governing equations and require empirical assumptions and idealizations that can limit their validity. In this paper we formulate an alternative numerical, data‐driven approach that learns a compact model from data representative of the type of measurements one can obtain in an experimental facility. To develop the model we start from a generic discrete‐time dynamical system and then use physics knowledge to refine its structure. Numerical studies demonstrate the potential of the model and establish some empirical guidelines for its training.

Bochev, Pavel↗

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.

Life cycle analysis↗

Zero power experiment for molten salt reactor - code verification and validation request

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of the six perspective Generation IV nuclear technologies that should fulfil sustainability, economics, safety, and proliferation resistance goals. In recent years these concepts have attracted increased interest in research as well as in industry. In the context of developing new, innovative technology, a zero-power experiment would be an ideal option for improving the understanding of MSR systems under low-risk and low-cost conditions. The given research was focused on cross-verification of the nuclear codes for MSR modelling and simulations as required for the development of the first design of a potential facility and a draft of an experimental programme. The analysis included the evaluation of lattice and Monte Carlo codes. The study showed that all considered nuclear tools were in good agreement with each other. Although this does not mean the results will match the real experimental data, which is essential for the regulatory approval of a novel technology. Currently, experimental data is almost absent for MSR technology. Hence, a zero power experiment is needed to assure we can rely on modelling and simulation studies for further development of MSR technology and deliver real-world experiments to support the licensing of future MSRs. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗