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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series: Preprint

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗

Mitigation of Nacelle/Pylon Wake on the High-Lift Common Research Model Using a Nacelle Chine

A 10% scale, high-lift version of the Common Research Model (CRM-HL) was tested in the NASA Langley Research Center 14-by22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The focus of the wind tunnel test campaign was to assess the feasibility of active flow control (AFC) on the simplified CRM-HL configuration. The modular design of the CRM-HL model enabled the testing of the conventional CRM-HL version to establish a benchmark for the AFC research. The wind tunnel model has the capability of being tested with and without the engine nacelle/pylon for comparison. The wind tunnel investigation included the acquisition of force and moment data, steady pressure data, as well as surface flow visualization using minitufts. For some select cases, numerical simulations were performed to aid in understanding the wind tunnel data. Wind tunnel measurements indicated a lift degradation of the conventional CRM-HL at high angles of attack. The surface flow visualization with fluorescent minitufts revealed that the lift degradation is due to flow separation caused by the nacelle/pylon wake on the inboard wing. The wake and the consequent flow separation were successfully mitigated using a nacelle chine installed on the inboard side of the engine nacelle.

Mehti Koklu↗

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as abrupt time series data shifts. These shifts, which are usually unintentional, may be caused by software or hardware configuration changes on a PV system, and do not reflect an actual change in overall system performance. Locating these shifts and segmenting the associated time series aids in more accurate future PV analysis. In this research, an offline changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects these abrupt data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window for the labeled data sets. To promote further research in this space, we are releasing the labeled data shift sets on U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package.

changepoint detection↗

Automated Shift Detection in Sensor-Based PV Power and Irradiance Time Series

PV power and irradiance sensor-based measurements are prone to error, resulting in issues such as time series data shifts. In this research, a changepoint detection (CPD) algorithm that automatically detects data shifts in sensor-based time series is introduced. Data shift periods in 101 daily PV power and irradiance time series were labeled manually by two solar experts. These data streams represent sensor-based measurements, and display a variety of data shift behaviors. A changepoint detection algorithm was tuned using the 101 labeled data streams, with each model configuration's ability to detect labeled changepoints benchmarked using metrics such as F1-score, recall, and Rand Index. Best performing models on seasonality-corrected data streams include the Pruned Exact Linear (PELT) method, the Binary Segmentation method, and the Bottom-Up method, all scoring an average F1-score of 0.76 or greater at detecting labeled changepoints within a 30-day window across the labeled data sets. Pending approval, we plan to release the labeled data sets for this research on NREL's DuraMAT Data Hub, and the associated algorithm in the Python PVAnalytics package. By supplying the training sets and algorithm, we hope to encourage further development in this research space.

data shift↗

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

Modeling resistive-inductive evolution of currents in Wendelstein 7-X

This research investigates the temporal evolution of the toroidal plasma current in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator under different heating, fueling, and current drive scenarios. The THRIFT code has been modernized and its predictions of the evolution of the toroidal current have been compared against experimentally measured currents in W7-X. Good agreement is found with respect to the characteristic timescale between experimentally measured and simulated toroidal currents. The total bootstrap current is under-predicted owing to the applicability of the BOOTSJ model for the plasma collisionalities in question. Edge plasma resistivity is found to play an important role in the asymptotic behavior of the evolution of the current, indicating a possible limitation of the minimum plasma temperature when applying this model. Simulations of ECCD and heating power steps show THRIFT is capable of capturing the dynamical evolution of the current in response to changes in current sources. Future uses of THRIFT include validating and benchmarking other non-inductive current models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Non-intrusive reduced order modeling of natural convection in porous media using convolutional autoencoders: Comparison with linear subspace techniques

Natural convection in porous media is a highly nonlinear multiphysical problem relevant to many engineering applications (e.g., the process of CO 2 sequestration). Here, we extend and present a non-intrusive reduced order model of natural convection in porous media employing deep convolutional autoencoders for the compression and reconstruction and either radial basis function (RBF) interpolation or artificial neural networks (ANNs) for mapping parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) on the corresponding nonlinear manifolds. To benchmark our approach, we also describe linear compression and reconstruction processes relying on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and ANNs. Further, we present comprehensive comparisons among different models through three benchmark problems. The reduced order models, linear and nonlinear approaches, are much faster than the finite element model, obtaining a maximum speed-up of 7 × 10 6 because our framework is not bound by the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition; hence, it could deliver quantities of interest at any given time contrary to the finite element model. Our model’s accuracy still lies within a relative error of 7% in the worst-case scenario. We illustrate that, in specific settings, the nonlinear approach outperforms its linear counterpart and vice versa. We hypothesize that a visual comparison between principal component analysis (PCA) and t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) could indicate which method will perform better prior to employing any specific compression strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Benchmarking of ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections for LWR ex-core transport applications

ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross section data is benchmarked on a simple Monte-Carlo model representative of the ex-core geometry of a PWR used for reactor vessel neutron fluence calculations. The benchmarking indicates that the ENDF/B-VIII.0 results show large differences as compared to previous evaluations, which have been extensively compared to measured data. This exercise suggests that ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data is not suitable for ex-core LWR radiation transport applications. Evaluators are aware of the problems with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation of iron and work is underway to improve the evaluations for an upcoming release.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Implementation of Two Local Correlation-Based Transition Models in OVERFLOW 2.3e

Accurate prediction of the laminar-to-turbulent boundary layer transition is highlighted as a vital component of NASA's CFD Vision 2030 Study. With an increased emphasis on greener air transports and sustainable aviation, transition modeling is anticipated to have an added significance, particularly in the applications related to laminar flow technology. However, unmanned aerial vehicles, crewed reentry vehicles, and ground-to-flight extrapolation all benefit from transition models. It is useful to incorporate a variety of models in CFD solvers because there isn't a single transition model that is ideal for the complete spectrum of applications. While the Langtry-Menter γ–Reθt model has been widely used for CFD predictions of flows with laminar, transitional, and turbulent boundary layers, it does not meet the criteria for Galilean invariance, a desirable attribute for rotorcraft applications. To help overcome that limitation, we have implemented Menter's SST-based γ transition model within NASA’s OVERFLOW Overset CFD code (version 2.3e). In addition, an SA-based implementation of the Langtry-Menter γ–Reθt transition model has also been implemented in view of the increased robustness of the SA-turbulence model for external aerodynamic applications. An initial assessment of the implemented models has been carried out using benchmark 2D test cases involving flat plates and the NLF-0416 airfoil, focusing on bypass, Tollmien-Schlichting, and laminar separation bubble-induced transition scenarios. In comparison to the Langtry-Menter γ–Reθt model, both models were found to produce increased computation efficiency, principally as a result of the decrease from four to three auxiliary transport equations. Results from the initial analysis will be presented, along with additional details pertaining to the deployment of these models.

CFD modeling↗

The ballad of LLM agents: philosophical reasoning for chemistry

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable potential for scientific reasoning but often produce unreliable or scientifically unactionable outputs when faced with multi-step logic, domain grounding, and interpretability challenges, especially in complex fields like chemistry and materials science. Here, we introduce a framework of philosophical reasoning agents, inspired by canonical thinkers such as Socrates, Descartes, Kant, and Hume, to guide LLM behavior via structured prompt engineering. These agents embody distinct reasoning paradigms (dialectical inquiry, deductive logic, rule-based judgment, and empirical validation) and are evaluated across multiple chemistry subdomains, physical, analytical, general, inorganic, and organic chemistry, using the ChemBench benchmark. Our agentic prompting approach yields substantial accuracy gains on open-ended numerical chemistry questions, with gains of +11.5 percentage points for GPT-4o with Hume, +4.5 percentage points for GPT-5 with Kant, and +21.8 percentage points for GPT-5.1 with Socrates at the strict 1% error threshold, relative to the corresponding base models. Beyond accuracy, we observe benchmark-level model–agent performance patterns, suggesting that different prompting styles interact differently with each base model. These findings demonstrate that embedding philosophy-of-science principles into multi-agent frameworks can improve and produce interpretable, adaptive, and domain-aligned scientific LLMs.

Harb, Hassan [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), A↗

Experimental Covariance Determination for Critical Integral Experiments

Integral benchmarks for criticality safety and nuclear data validation require expensive uncertainty quantification studies. In general, uncertainty quantification techniques ignore correlations between experiments and shared parts. Experiments, such as the TEX (Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments) campaigns, consist of many shared parts, such as the ‘Jemima’ HEU fuel plates, which create a strong correlation in their uncertainties. While these correlations are known to exist, they are often not estimated due to the complexity of such calculations. This paper describes an intuitive method of determining the covariance for each of the experimental components, providing a correlation for each family of parts across the multiple cases examined within a benchmark. A proof-of-principle study using the TEX-HEU experimental campaign was performed and verified that the correlations can be calculated with information commonly found in the ICSBEP (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project) benchmarks. This study showed that the introduction of model and experimental covariances reduces the χ 2 per degree of freedom from 2.203 to 1.179, indicating that the omission causes overly pessimistic bias quantifications. This technique can be seamlessly integrated to current benchmark evaluations as well as reevaluations of legacy benchmarks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The MUSIC Critical Benchmark and Nuclear Data

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSIC) experiment was a series of measurements of critical and subcritical configurations of bare highly enriched uranium. The goal was to compare measurement methods, analysis techniques, and simulation methods across regimes of criticality and to provide high-quality validation of 235 U nuclear data. A benchmark evaluation of the two critical configurations of the MUSIC experiments will soon be published in the release of the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook. The recent execution of the experiment aids in proper quantification of model simplifications and all uncertainties associated with the experiment. Historical benchmark evaluations are heavily relied on for uranium nuclear data validation despite the fact that the same level of documentation and comparable uncertainty analysis may not be present. The MUSIC evaluation is less likely to include “unknown unknowns” that could impede accurately modeling the system. Presented are both highly detailed and very simplified models, which represent the experimental configurations accurately, aiding the users of the benchmark for nuclear data or transport code validation. The sensitivities of k eff to nuclear data and nuclear data–related uncertainties are very similar between this experiment and previous bare uranium sphere experiments. In addition, the nuclear data uncertainties to any nuclides other than 235 U are small. For all these reasons, the recently evaluated MUSIC benchmark critical configurations could prove very useful for 235 U nuclear data validation. Currently, major libraries have good agreement with the experimental results, within 200 pcm for all nuclear data libraries, and within one standard deviation of the experimental result for most. Suggested nuclear data adjustments based on MUSIC and Lady Godiva are also presented, with posterior improvements to both the agreement in k eff and the uncertainty associated with the nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Testing New Programming Paradigms with NAS Parallel Benchmarks

Over the past decade, high performance computing has evolved rapidly, not only in hardware architectures but also with increasing complexity of real applications. Technologies have been developing to aim at scaling up to thousands of processors on both distributed and shared memory systems. Development of parallel programs on these computers is always a challenging task. Today, writing parallel programs with message passing (e.g. MPI) is the most popular way of achieving scalability and high performance. However, writing message passing programs is difficult and error prone. Recent years new effort has been made in defining new parallel programming paradigms. The best examples are: HPF (based on data parallelism) and OpenMP (based on shared memory parallelism). Both provide simple and clear extensions to sequential programs, thus greatly simplify the tedious tasks encountered in writing message passing programs. HPF is independent of memory hierarchy, however, due to the immaturity of compiler technology its performance is still questionable. Although use of parallel compiler directives is not new, OpenMP offers a portable solution in the shared-memory domain. Another important development involves the tremendous progress in the internet and its associated technology. Although still in its infancy, Java promisses portability in a heterogeneous environment and offers possibility to "compile once and run anywhere." In light of testing these new technologies, we implemented new parallel versions of the NAS Parallel Benchmarks (NPBs) with HPF and OpenMP directives, and extended the work with Java and Java-threads. The purpose of this study is to examine the effectiveness of alternative programming paradigms. NPBs consist of five kernels and three simulated applications that mimic the computation and data movement of large scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications. We started with the serial version included in NPB2.3. Optimization of memory and cache usage was applied to several benchmarks, noticeably BT and SP, resulting in better sequential performance. In order to overcome the lack of an HPF performance model and guide the development of the HPF codes, we employed an empirical performance model for several primitives found in the benchmarks. We encountered a few limitations of HPF, such as lack of supporting the "REDISTRIBUTION" directive and no easy way to handle irregular computation. The parallelization with OpenMP directives was done at the outer-most loop level to achieve the largest granularity. The performance of six HPF and OpenMP benchmarks is compared with their MPI counterparts for the Class-A problem size in the figure in next page. These results were obtained on an SGI Origin2000 (195MHz) with MIPSpro-f77 compiler 7.2.1 for OpenMP and MPI codes and PGI pghpf-2.4.3 compiler with MPI interface for HPF programs.

Jin, H.↗

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Model-Free Voltage Control Approach to Mitigate Motor Stalling and FIDVR for Smart Grids

Electric power networks are large and highly nonlinear dynamical systems that present unique challenges to control design. Though there is a large number of dynamic models for power system stability and control, many models are only useful with right assumptions and wrong for other tasks. Moreover, the dynamic behavior of the grid is increasingly complex under the banner of smart grids. These lead to the difficulty of developing appropriate dynamic modeling, and thus an efficient control strategy. To avoid such modeling challenges, here we present a novel dynamic voltage control strategy based on a model-free control (MFC) approach, requiring no modeling procedure. In particular, it focuses on fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) events, which require complex and accurate dynamic load models to replicate such events. This work utilizes MFC as an online controller to achieve the desired voltage stability under the FIDVR event. The proposed MFC strategy allows simple implementation and low computational cost for efficient mitigation of FIDVR. For benchmarking, a reasonably accurate dynamic performance model is explored. Simulation results with the IEEE 57 bus test network demonstrate the enhanced dynamic voltage profile for load buses having induction motors with the support of reactive power resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Biochemical Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Hydrocarbon Fuels and Products: 2020 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for biochemical platform research. It allows the impact of research progress to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall cellulosic biofuel production process for a particular conversion pathway. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance and progress can be tracked towards out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate cost-competitive cellulosic biofuel technology. The purpose of this report is to benchmark the latest experimental developments across a number of potential bioconversion pathways as quantified by modeled minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs), as a measure of current status relative to those final targets. For this state of technology, TEA models were run for two separate biological conversion pathways to fuels, based on available data for integrated biomass deconstruction and hydrolysate processing; namely carboxylic acids (primarily butyric acid) and diols (2,3-butanediol [BDO]), reflecting NREL's recently-published 2018 biochemical design report focused on those two pathways. The models were run across three scenarios for lignin utilization, namely combustion, conversion to coproducts based on "base case" performance with biomass hydrolysate, and conversion to coproducts based on "high" performance demonstrated with model lignin monomer components. Relative to prior 2019 benchmarks, the 2020 SOT achieved further MFSP reductions of approximately $1/gallon gasoline equivalent, primarily attributed to improvements in pretreatment that led to both cost reductions and yield improvements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗