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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Development and Evaluation of the Active Response Gravity Offload System as a Lunar and Martian EVA Simulation Environment

In preparation for future exploration missions, NASA seeks the ability to simulate partial-gravity operations for use in ground-based research, crew training, and engineering design evaluations. The Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is designed to simulate reduced gravity environments, such as lunar, Martian, or microgravity, using a robotic system similar to an overhead bridge crane. ARGOS continuously offloads a portion of a suited human’s weight during all dynamic motions within the test facility, which can include basic functional movements such as walking, running, and jumping, as well as a wide range of planetary surface activities. This system will be used as part of a metabolic-rate task characterization study to determine the workload associated with partial-gravity extravehicular activity (EVA). Pilot testing was conducted using the MKIII prototype planetary space suit and two gimbal designs to determine the ability of the ARGOS test environment to simulate planetary EVA operations. This paper will describe the lessons learned from the feasibility testing, simulation-environment mockup design, and the results from the pilot tests and their influence into the final study design. Being able to effectively simulate partial-gravity environments and characterize the performance of crewmembers will have an impact on multiple domains including suit design, task design, thermal models, and life-support-system capacity verification plans, among others.

Omar S Bekdash↗

Advanced Diagnostics for Megahertz Imaging of Mixing, Fuel Spray, and Combustion Processes for Rotating Detonation Combustors

Recent advancements in megahertz rate, high-power, burst-mode laser technology are leveraged to perform and explore imaging measurements that spatially and temporally resolve the mixing, combustion, and detonation flow field in two laboratory-scale rotating detonation combustors (RDCs). In a non-premixed annular RDC, multiple imaging diagnostics are explored to investigate gaseous and liquid injector behavior, the detonation wave structure, and the propellant refill. In one instance, OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF) imaging is performed up to a 2 MHz repetition rate to track the combustion products and reaction zone locations. In the same annular RDC, a single liquid fuel jet is injected, and laser-based 355-nm imaging of the fuel spray is performed up to a 1 MHz repetition rate. For this configuration, the annular RDC is used as a detonation driver to impose periodic detonation waves to interact with the fuel spray. Moreover, in this annular RDC, a range of tracer-based laser imaging measurements are explored to time-resolve the unsteady oxidizer air recovery and refill process. In a non-premixed linear RDC, planar imaging measurements of the fuel mixing are performed up to a 200 kHz repetition rate using PLIF of a tracer in the fuel supply. The fuel mixing imaging helps explain the origin of the observed pre and post wave burning, detonation structure, and enables quantifying injector recovery timescales. This paper will provide a high-level broad survey of diagnostics applied in these RDCs, lessons learned, and interesting observations.

Combustion↗

Advanced Diagnostics For Megahertz Imaging Of Mixing, Fuel Spray, And Combustion Processes For Rotating Detonation Combustors

Recent advancements in megahertz rate, high-power, burst-mode laser technology are leveraged to perform and explore imaging measurements that spatially and temporally resolve the mixing, combustion, and detonation flow field in two laboratory-scale rotating detonation combustors (RDCs). In a non-premixed annular RDC, multiple imaging diagnostics are explored to investigate gaseous and liquid injector behavior, the detonation wave structure, and the propellant refill. In one instance, OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (OH-PLIF) imaging is performed up to a 2 MHz repetition rate to track the combustion products and reaction zone locations. In the same annular RDC, a single liquid fuel jet is injected, and laser-based 355-nm imaging of the fuel spray is performed up to a 1 MHz repetition rate. For this configuration, the annular RDC is used as a detonation driver to impose periodic detonation waves to interact with the fuel spray. Moreover, in this annular RDC, a range of tracer-based laser imaging measurements are explored to time-resolve the unsteady oxidizer air recovery and refill process. In a non-premixed linear RDC, planar imaging measurements of the fuel mixing are performed up to a 200 kHz repetition rate using PLIF of a tracer in the fuel supply. The fuel mixing imaging helps explain the origin of the observed pre and post wave burning, detonation structure, and enables quantifying injector recovery timescales. This paper will provide a high-level broad survey of diagnostics applied in these RDCs, lessons learned, and interesting observations.

Combustion↗

FLEET: Flexible Efficient Ensemble Training for Heterogeneous Deep Neural Networks

Parallel training of an ensemble of Deep Neural Networks (DNN) on a cluster of nodes is an effective approach to shorten the process of neural network architecture search and hyper-parameter tuning for a given learning task. Prior efforts have shown that data sharing, where the common preprocessing operation is shared across the DNN training pipelines, saves computational resources and improves pipeline efficiency. Data sharing strategy, however, performs poorly for a heterogeneous set of DNNs where each DNN has varying computational needs and thus different training rate and convergence speed. This paper proposes FLEET, a flexible ensemble DNN training framework for efficiently training a heterogeneous set of DNNs. We build FLEET via several technical innovations. We theoretically prove that an optimal resource allocation is NP-hard and propose a greedy algorithm to efficiently allocate resources for training each DNN with data sharing. We integrate data-parallel DNN training into ensemble training to mitigate the differences in training rates and introduce checkpointing into this context to address the issue of different convergence speeds. Experiments show that FLEET significantly improves the training efficiency of DNN ensembles without compromising the quality of the result.

Guan, Hui↗

Industrial Energy Management During a Pandemic: Lessons Learned from DOE Better Plants Program Partners

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing many challenges for manufacturers, especially those that depend on workers whose jobs cannot be performed remotely. This has detrimentally impacted the energy management workforce, energy support system performance, as well as operations and supply chains.This article discusses four primary challenges for industrial energy management caused by the pandemic, strained budget for energy projects, increased energy intensity caused by low production rates and other safety practices, limited access to energy systems, and the lost knowledge and experience of senior staff. This article also proposes some potential solutions for these challenges that include implementing no- and low-cost energy conservation measures, adopting alternative financing options, improving shutdown procedures, reducing baseloads, creating an effective online energy-monitoring system, performing virtual energy assessments, building a robust EnMS, and attending online and in-person training events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Towards a self-driving trigger at the LHC: adaptive response in real time

Real-time data filtering and selection—or trigger—systems at high-throughput scientific facilities such as the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider must process extremely high-rate data streams under stringent bandwidth, latency, and storage constraints. Yet these systems are typically designed as static, hand-tuned menus of selection criteria grounded in prior knowledge and simulation. In this work, we further explore the concept of a self-driving trigger, an autonomous data-filtering framework that reallocates resources and adjusts thresholds dynamically in real-time to optimize signal efficiency, rate stability, and computational cost as instrumentation and environmental conditions evolve. We introduce a benchmark ecosystem to emulate realistic collider scenarios and demonstrate real-time optimization of a menu including canonical energy sum triggers as well as modern anomaly-detection algorithms that target non-standard event topologies using machine learning. Using simulated data streams and publicly available collision data from the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, we demonstrate the capability to dynamically and automatically optimize trigger performance under specific cost objectives without manual retuning. Our adaptive strategy shifts trigger design from static menus with heuristic tuning to intelligent, automated, data-driven control, unlocking greater flexibility and discovery potential in future high-energy physics analyses.

Emami, Shaghayegh [Michigan U.] (ORCID:00090007589↗

Understanding GPU Memory Corruption at Extreme Scale: The Summit Case Study

GPU memory corruption and in particular double-bit errors (DBEs) remain one of the least understood aspects of HPC system reliability. Albeit rare, their occurrences always lead to job termination and can potentially cost thousands of node-hours, either from wasted computations or as the overhead from regular checkpointing needed to minimize the losses. As supercomputers and their components simultaneously grow in scale, density, failure rates, and environmental footprint, the efficiency of HPC operations becomes both an imperative and a challenge. We examine DBEs using system telemetry data and logs collected from the Summit supercomputer, equipped with 27,648 Tesla V100 GPUs with 2nd-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM2). Using exploratory data analysis and statistical learning, we extract several insights about memory reliability in such GPUs. We find that GPUs with prior DBE occurrences are prone to experience them again due to otherwise harmless factors, correlate this phenomenon with GPU placement, and suggest manufacturing variability as a factor. On the general population of GPUs, we link DBEs to short- and long-term high power consumption modes while finding no significant correlation with higher temperatures. We also show that the workload type can be a factor in memory’s propensity to corruption.

Oles, Vlad↗

Three-dimensional nanoscale reduced-angle ptycho-tomographic imaging with deep learning (RAPID)

X-ray ptychographic tomography is a nondestructive method for three dimensional (3D) imaging with nanometer-sized resolvable features. The size of the volume that can be imaged is almost arbitrary, limited only by the penetration depth and the available scanning time. Here we present a method that rapidly accelerates the imaging operation over a given volume through acquiring a limited set of data via large angular reduction and compensating for the resulting ill-posedness through deeply learned priors. The proposed 3D reconstruction method “RAPID” relies initially on a subset of the object measured with the nominal number of required illumination angles and treats the reconstructions from the conventional two-step approach as ground truth. It is then trained to reproduce equal fidelity from much fewer angles. After training, it performs with similar fidelity on the hitherto unexamined portions of the object, previously not shown during training, with a limited set of acquisitions. In our experimental demonstration, the nominal number of angles was 349 and the reduced number of angles was 21, resulting in a x140 aggregate speedup over a volume of 4.48 x 93.18 x 3.92 μm 3 and with (14nm) 3 feature size, i.e. ~ 10 8 voxels. RAPID’s key distinguishing feature over earlier attempts is the incorporation of atrous spatial pyramid pooling modules into the deep neural network framework in an anisotropic way. We found that adjusting the atrous rate improves reconstruction fidelity because it expands the convolutional kernels’ range to match the physics of multi-slice ptychography without significantly increasing the number of parameters.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Predicting Team Functioning in HERA Missions

Team functioning is integral to success in future long term space exploration missions. Proactively detecting declines in team functioning can mitigate conflict and ensure mission success. This project developed a speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) system that unobtrusively predicts degradation in team functioning, including performance and cohesion, in the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5. The AI system conducted automated analysis of the prosodic (tone of voice) and linguistic (language content) components of speech, modeling interpersonal dynamics at both the turn-taking and day-wide levels. We investigated team functioning via observing structured interactions (i.e., multi-mission space exploration vehicle-extra vehicular activity [MMSEV-EVA], team interaction battery [TIB]) and unstructured interactions before the MMSEV-EVA task. We developed machine learning models to predict team functioning (objective task accuracy, self reported team efficacy and self reported team cohesion) by analyzing OpenSmile acoustic features, linguistic descriptors extracted via the linguistic inquiry and word count (LIWC) dictionary, and semantic embeddings. In the TIB, static models using logistic regression and random forests were not able to predict task accuracy, but predicted team efficacy and cohesion during both the decision making and relational tasks to a moderate level (60-70%). Majority voting on the individual turns to predict day long team efficacy further increased accuracies (70-80%). Finally, long short-term memory (LSTM) models showed the best performance across all variables (80-91%), including task performance. In the MMSEV-EVA, static models achieved an accuracy of 60% with majority voting, which increased to 80% through the incorporation of mission day as a variable, accounting for the learning effect. A key finding across both tasks was the "team-dependent" nature of these interactions; models achieved much higher accuracy when trained on prior days of the same team's data rather than attempting to generalize across entirely different teams, with even 1-2 days of prior data per team achieving 5-15% improvement over team-independent models. In addition, the incorporation of pre-task data from the same team also improves model performance, e.g., incorporating data from the decision-making task of the TIB, which preceded the relational task, improved the prediction of team efficacy and cohesion during the latter. We compared model performance when trained on machine-generated data compared to data that had been further corrected by human annotators. Overall, models trained on human-corrected data exhibited a modest improvement in performance, particularly when acoustic features were used. We found no significant correlation between word error rate (WER) and model accuracy (r(55) = -0.08, p = 0.51), but model’s accuracy was significantly higher for medium/high quality transcription (0.74 (SD = 0.48)) compared to the low-quality group (0.64 (SD = 0.36)) (t(63)=2.82, p = 0.006). Based on these, several design recommendation emerge, that could inform Standards at NASA. Models predicting team functioning should incorporate at least one to two days of historical interaction data, include brief pre-task discussions, and explicitly model temporal learning effects, especially for longer operational tasks. Minimum quality standards for automated speech-processing pipelines are needed, given the performance gains observed with manually corrected acoustic data. Finally, systems should leverage both acoustic features and language embeddings in complementary ways, with modality choices and fusion strategies tailored to mission context, task demands, and data quality requirements.

Shrivatsa Mishra↗

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Software Defined Radio Architecture Contributions to Next Generation Space Communications

Space communications architecture concepts, comprising the elements of the system, the interactions among them, and the principles that govern their development, are essential factors in developing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) future exploration and science missions. Accordingly, vital architectural attributes encompass flexibility, the extensibility to insert future capabilities, and to enable evolution to provide interoperability with other current and future systems. Space communications architectures and technologies for this century must satisfy a growing set of requirements, including those for Earth sensing, collaborative observation missions, robotic scientific missions, human missions for exploration of the Moon and Mars where surface activities require supporting communications, and in-space observatories for observing the earth, as well as other star systems and the universe. An advanced, integrated, communications infrastructure will enable the reliable, multipoint, high-data-rate capabilities needed on demand to provide continuous, maximum coverage for areas of concentrated activity. Importantly, the cost/value proposition of the future architecture must be an integral part of its design; an affordable and sustainable architecture is indispensable within anticipated future budget environments. Effective architecture design informs decision makers with insight into the capabilities needed to efficiently satisfy the demanding space-communication requirements of future missions and formulate appropriate requirements. A driving requirement for the architecture is the extensibility to address new requirements and provide low-cost on-ramps for new capabilities insertion, ensuring graceful growth as new functionality and new technologies are infused into the network infrastructure. In addition to extensibility, another key architectural attribute of the space communication equipment's interoperability with other NASA communications systems, as well as those communications and navigation systems operated by international space agencies and civilian and government agencies. In this paper, we review the philosophies, technologies, architectural attributes, mission services, and communications capabilities that form the structure of candidate next-generation integrated communication architectures for space communications and navigation. A key area that this paper explores is from the development and operation of the software defined radio for the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed currently on the International Space Station (ISS). Evaluating the lessons learned from development and operation feed back into the communications architecture. Leveraging the reconfigurability provides a change in the way that operations are done and must be considered. Quantifying the impact on the NASA Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) software defined radio architecture provides feedback to keep the standard useful and up to date. NASA is not the only customer of these radios. Software defined radios are developed for other applications, and taking advantage of these developments promotes an architecture that is cost effective and sustainable. Developments in the following areas such as an updated operating environment, higher data rates, networking and security can be leveraged. The ability to sustain an architecture that uses radios for multiple markets can lower costs and keep new technology infused.

Lessons Learned↗

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗

Implementing hydrogen oxidation reaction on Pt for controlling counter electrode processes

The search for active, stable, and durable materials for electrochemical energy technologies requires increasing levels of precision to establish true structure-function relationships and guide materials design from atomic and molecular scale. This increases the level of control required over the experimental system for proper materials evaluation. The choice of counter electrode material become crucial, as Pt dissolution at high voltages may cause contamination to the working electrode, especially when studying reductive processes in reactions such as oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), H 2 evolution reaction (HER), and the CO 2 reduction reaction. The learnings from “old school” electrochemistry groups lead us to leverage H 2 reactions over Pt to construct a counter electrode system with controlled potential that eliminates Pt ion contamination concerns. In here we discuss the construction of such Pt|H 2 counter electrode where key experimental aspects such as the H 2 flow rate and effective distribution determines the maximum current this counter electrode can accommodate before switching to high voltage and triggering Pt dissolution. Lastly, we demonstrate the use of the Pt|H 2 counter electrode in aqueous electrolytes during HER occurring on the working electrode at varying currents, showing that the Pt content in the cell remains below parts per trillion (ppt) up to 10 mA, and below 50 ppt at 100 mA up to 1 h of constant current hold. This work provides a guide to the implementation of Pt|H 2 counter electrodes to improve the precision of electrochemical experiments in search of highly active, selective, and durable materials for energy technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Subgalactic Scaling Relations with T e -based Metallicities of Low-metallicity Regions in Galaxies: Metal-poor Gas Inflow May Have Important Effects?

The scaling relationship is a fundamental probe of the evolution of galaxies. Using the integral field spectroscopic data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey, we select 1698 spaxels with a significant detection of the auroral emission line [O ιιι]λ4363 from 52 galaxies to investigate the scaling relationships at the low-metallicity end. We find that our sample’s star formation rate is higher and its metallicity is lower in the scaling relationship than the star-forming sequence after removing the contribution of the Fundamental Metallicity Relation. We also find that the stellar ages of our sample are younger (<1 Gyr) and the stellar metallicities are also lower. Morphological parameters from the Deep Learning catalog indicate that our galaxies are more likely to be mergers. These results suggest that their low-metallicity regions may be related to interaction; the inflow of metal-poor gas may dilute the interstellar medium and form new metal-poor stars in these galaxies during interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

General purpose optimization software for engineering design

The author has developed several general purpose optimization programs over the past twenty years. The earlier programs were developed as research codes and served that purpose reasonably well. However, in taking the formal step from research to industrial application programs, several important lessons have been learned. Among these are the importance of clear documentation, immediate user support, and consistent maintenance. Most important has been the issue of providing software that gives a good, or at least acceptable, design at minimum computational cost. Here, the basic issues developing optimization software for industrial applications are outlined and issues of convergence rate, reliability, and relative minima are discussed. Considerable feedback has been received from users, and new software is being developed to respond to identified needs. The basic capabilities of this software are outlined. A major motivation for the development of commercial grade software is ease of use and flexibility, and these issues are discussed with reference to general multidisciplinary applications. It is concluded that design productivity can be significantly enhanced by the more widespread use of optimization as an everyday design tool.

Vanderplaats, G. N.↗

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗