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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Analysis of subgrid models using direct and large-eddy simulations of isotropic turbulence

Direct and large eddy simulations of forced and decaying isotropic turbulence have been performed using a pseudospectral and a finite-difference code. Subgrid models that include a one-equation subgrid kinetic energy model with and without a stochastic backscatter forcing term and a new scale similarity model have been analyzed in both Fourier space and physical space. The Fourier space analysis showed that the energy transfer across the cutoff wavenumber k(sub c) is dominated by local interaction. The correlation between the exact and the modeled (by a spectral eddy viscosity) nonlinear terms and the subgrid energy transfer in physical space was found to be quite low. In physical space, a similar correlation analysis was carried out using top hat filtering. Results show that the subgrid stress and the energy flux predicted by the subgrid models correlates very well with the exact data. The scale similarity model showed very high correlation for reasonable grid resolution. However, with decrease in grid resolution, the scale similarity model became more uncorrelated, when compared to the kinetic energy subgrid model. The subgrid models were then used for large-eddy simulations for a range of Reynolds number. It was determined that the dissipation was modeled poorly and that the correlation with the exact results was quite low for all the models. In general, for coarse grid resolution, the scale similarity model consistently showed very low correlation while the kinetic energy model showed a relatively higher correlation. These results suggest that to use the scale similarity model relatively fine grid resolution may be required, whereas, the kinetic energy model could be used even in coarse grid.

Menon, S.↗

A Community Atmosphere Model with Superparameterized Clouds

In 1999, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientists Wojciech Grabowski and Piotr Smolarkiewicz created a "multiscale" atmospheric model in which the physical processes associated with clouds were represented by running a simple high-resolution model within each grid column of a lowresolution global model. In idealized experiments, they found that the multiscale model produced promising simulations of organized tropical convection, which other models had struggled to produce. Inspired by their results, Colorado State University (CSU) scientists Marat Khairoutdinov and David Randall created a multiscale version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). They removed the cloud parameterizations of the CAM, and replaced them with Khairoutdinov's high-resolution cloud model. They dubbed the embedded cloud model a "super-parameterization," and the modified CAM is now called the "SP-CAM." Over the next several years, many scientists, from many institutions, have explored the ability of the SP-CAM to simulate tropical weather systems, the day-night changes of precipitation, the Asian and African monsoons, and a number of other climate processes. Cristiana Stan of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions found that the SP-CAM gives improved results when coupled to an ocean model, and follow-on studies have explored the SP-CAM's utility when used as the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model. Much of this research has been performed under the auspices of the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes, a National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center for which the lead institution is CSU.

atmosphere↗

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Examination of climatological wind patterns and simulated pollen dispersion in a complex island environment

Complex terrain creates small-scale circulations which affect pollen dispersion but may be missed by meteorological observing networks and coarse-grid meteorological models. On volcanic islands, these circulations result from differing rates of surface heating between land and sea as well as rugged terrain. We simulated the transport of bentgrass, ryegrass, and maize pollen from 30 sources within the agricultural regions of the Hawaiian island Kaua’i during climatological conditions spanning season conditions and the La Niña, El Niño, and neutral phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Both pollen size and source location had major effects on predicted dispersion over and near the island. Three patterns of pollen dispersion were identified in response to prevailing wind conditions: southwest winds transported pollen inland, funneling pollen grains through valleys; east winds transported pollen over the ocean, with dispersive tails for the smallest pollen grains following the mean wind and extending as far as the island of Ni’ihau 35 km away; and northeast winds moved pollen inland counter to the prevailing flow due to a sea breeze circulation that formed over the source region. These results are the first to predict the interactions between complex island terrain and local climatology on grass pollen dispersion. As a result, they demonstrate how numerical modeling can provide guidance for field trials by illustrating the common flow regimes present in complex terrain, allowing field trials to focus on areas where successful sampling is more likely to occur.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Approach to Multivariate Network Traffic Analysis

© 2019, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC & Science Press, China. Network traffic analysis is one of the core functions in network monitoring for effective network operations and management. While online traffic analysis has been widely studied, it is still intensively challenging due to several reasons. One of the primary challenges is the heavy volume of traffic to analyze within a finite amount of time due to the increasing network bandwidth. Another important challenge for effective traffic analysis is to support multivariate functions of traffic variables to help administrators identify unexpected network events intuitively. To this end, we propose a new approach with the multivariate analysis that offers a high-level summary of the online network traffic. With this approach, the current state of the network will display patterns compiled from a set of traffic variables, and the detection problems in network monitoring (e.g., change detection and anomaly detection) can be reduced to a pattern identification and classification problem. In this paper, we introduce our preliminary work with clustered patterns for online, multivariate network traffic analysis with the challenges and limitations we observed. We then present a grid-based model that is designed to overcome the limitations of the clustered pattern-based technique. We will discuss the potential of the new model with respect to the technical challenges including streaming-based computation and robustness to outliers.

Kim, Jinoh↗

An Optimization Platform Based on Coupled Indoor Environment and HVAC Simulation and its Application in Optimal Thermostat Placement

Model-based optimization can help improve the indoor thermal comfort and energy efficiency of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems. The models used in previous optimization studies either omit the dynamic interaction between indoor airflow and HVAC or are too slow for model-based optimization. To address this limitation, we propose an optimization methodology using coupled simulation of the airflow and HVAC that captures the dynamics of both systems. We implement an optimization platform using the coupled models of a coarse grid Fast Fluid Dynamics model for indoor airflow and Modelica models for HVAC which is linked to the GenOpt optimization engine. Then, we demonstrate the new optimization platform by studying the optimal thermostat placement in a typical office room with a VAV terminal box in the design phase. After validating the model, we perform an optimization study, in which the VAV terminal box is dynamically controlled, and find that our optimization platform can determine the optimal location of thermostat to achieve either best thermal comfort or least energy consumption, or the combined. Finally, the time cost for performing such optimization study is about 6.2 h, which is acceptable in the design phase.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Role of Input Assumptions and Model Structures in Projections of Variable Renewable Energy: A Multi-Model Perspective of the U.S. Electricity System

Recent wind and solar deployment in the United States has grown at unprecedented rates, but the extent to which this growth will continue is a key question. Energy-economic planning models are often used to develop future projections of these technologies, and although it is well-understood that model outcomes are sensitive to assumptions about technology developments and market conditions, it is less clear how underlying model structures might impact outcomes. For wind and solar technologies, model structures might be an even larger driver due to the complexity required to represent their variability, uncertainty, and location-dependence. Here, we apply three state-of-the-art electric sector planning models to evaluate variable renewable generation under different conditions with both harmonized and native input assumptions to isolate the impact that model structures might have on deployment outcomes. We find growth in wind and solar deployment in all models under a business-as-usual scenario (without new policies), where the median value for variable renewable energy generation share is found to be 27% by 2050 - but with a wide range of estimates (18-43%), types of renewable technologies deployed, and regional distributions across models. With harmonized assumptions about technology costs and market conditions the range narrows slightly, but a large range in penetration outcomes remains (24-41% by 2050) suggesting that model representations play significant roles in projections of future wind and solar deployment. We also assess the implications of achieving 55% wind and solar penetration by 2050 - to assess potential challenges at higher penetration levels - and the magnitude of variable generation under a carbon-constrained future. Finally, we identify research needs to better assess the future deployment of variable renewable energy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Toward more mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in river networks: Implementation and demonstration of a multiscale model

A recently introduced multiscale model for representing the effects of small-scale hyporheic-zone biogeochemical processes is extended from the reach scale to river network scales. The model uses advection-dispersion-reaction equations for the channel network and one-dimensional advection-reaction subgrid models for the hyporheic zone. We summarize implementation in the integrated surface/subsurface hydrology modeling system Amanzi-ATS. The extension uses topologically defined meshes to represent stream/river networks and associates a hyporheic subgrid model with each channel grid cell. Biogeochemical reaction modeling capability residing in community software is accessed through an application programming interface. The implementation is verified against independent numerical solutions on a single reach. Mesh convergence studies show that commonly used semi-distributed representations can introduce significant spatial discretization error. Denitrification of farm runoff in a subbasin of the Portage River Basin in Ohio, USA is used to demonstrate the general-purpose reactive transport capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing impact of $\mathrm{DER}$ on $\mathrm{FIDVR}$ - comparison of $\mathrm{EMT}$ simulation of a combined transmission and distribution grid with aggregated positive sequence models

The increase in percentage of distributed energy resources (DERs) brings in a degree of uncertainty in bulk power system planning and operations. Further, the presence of 1 - φ induction motors introduces the possibility of motor stalling and fault induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR). With newer versions of IEEE Std 1547™ there can be the opportunity to obtain dynamic voltage support from DERs. In this report, the impact of DERs providing dynamic voltage on the dynamic behavior of 1 - φ induction motors is examined in detail along with an exploration of the need for simulation platforms that go beyond positive sequence. The studies discussed here are carried out both in detailed electromagnetic time domain and in positive sequence domain for comparison.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Finite Volume schemes on unstructured grids for non-local models: Application to the simulation of heat transport in plasmas

In the so-called Spitzer-Haerm regime, equations of plasma physics reduce to a nonlinear parabolic equation for the electronic temperature. Coming back to the derivation of this limiting equation through hydrodynamic regime arguments, one is led to construct a hierarchy of models where the heat fluxes are defined through a non-local relation which can be reinterpreted as well by introducing coupled diffusion equations. We address the question of designing numerical methods to simulate these equations. The basic requirement for the scheme is to be asymptotically consistent with the Spitzer-Haerm regime. Furthermore, the constraints of physically realistic simulations make the use of unstructured meshes unavoidable. We develop a Finite Volume scheme, based on Vertex-Based discretization, which reaches these objectives. We discuss on numerical grounds the efficiency of the method, and the ability of the generalized models in capturing relevant phenomena missed by the asymptotic problem.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A compatible high-order meshless method for the Stokes equations with applications to suspension flows

A stable numerical solution of the steady Stokes problem requires compatibility between the choice of velocity and pressure approximation that has traditionally proven problematic for meshless methods. Here in this work, we present a discretization that couples a staggered scheme for pressure approximation with a divergence-free velocity reconstruction to obtain an adaptive, high-order, finite difference-like discretization that can be efficiently solved with conventional algebraic multigrid techniques. We use analytic benchmarks to demonstrate equal-order convergence for both velocity and pressure when solving problems with curvilinear geometries. In order to study problems in dense suspensions, we couple the solution for the flow to the equations of motion for freely suspended particles in an implicit monolithic scheme. The combination of high-order accuracy with fully-implicit schemes allows the accurate resolution of stiff lubrication forces directly from the solution of the Stokes problem without the need to introduce sub-grid lubrication models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantifying the challenge of reaching a 100% renewable energy power system for the United States

We simulate pathways for achieving up to 100% renewable energy (RE) electric power systems for the contiguous United States. Under base conditions, the least-cost buildout has RE penetration growing up to 57% in 2050. Relative to this base scenario, average CO2 abatement costs of achieving 80%, 90%, 95%, and 100% RE are $25, $33, $40, and $61/ton, respectively, with system costs growing from $30 to $36/MWh at 95% (achieved in 2040) and $39/MWh at 100%. Incremental abatement costs from 99% to 100% RE reach $930/ton, driven primarily by the need for firm RE capacity. In addition to the base conditions, we also examined 22 alternative conditions for a buildout of up to 100%. These sensitivities capture different technology trajectories, compliance requirements, requirement timing, electrification, and transmission availability. Nonlinear marginal costs for the last few percent approaching 100% RE were found for all sensitivities, which might motivate alternative nonelectric-sector abatement opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Exploring the impact of increased solar deployment levels on residential electricity bills in India

Here, in this study, the impact of increased solar penetration in the electricity generation mix on residential electricity consumer bills is explored. The study comprises of two sections: simulation of wholesale electricity rates and retail rate modeling. In the first stage, wholesale prices were modeled using a bottom-up long term unit commitment optimization model for different energy mix scenarios based on increased solar penetration, ranging from 5 to 40% on energy basis. The simulations indicated a fall in wholesale prices with increased solar penetration, a result of merit order effect. The simulated wholesale prices were then used to model retail rates for residential consumers. Four different types of retail rates were designed: flat rate, real time pricing, time of use and critical peak pricing. The impact of these retail rate mechanisms on electricity bills of residential consumers was analyzed and it was found that the bill savings achieved from time varying rates are greater than for time invariant rates. With increased solar penetration, customers with time-varying rates are likely to benefit the most from electricity bill savings. Although consumers with flat rate gain bill savings with increased solar penetration, the savings are likely to be lower than with time-varying rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Implications of improved representations of plant respiration in a changing climate

Land-atmosphere exchanges influence atmospheric CO 2 . Emphasis has been on describing photosynthetic CO 2 uptake, but less on respiration losses. New global datasets describe upper canopy dark respiration (R d ) and temperature dependencies. This allows characterization of baseline R d , instantaneous temperature responses and longer-term thermal acclimation effects. Here we show the global implications of these parameterisations with a global gridded land model. This model aggregates R d to whole-plant respiration R p , driven with meteorological forcings spanning uncertainty across climate change models. For preindustrial estimates, new baseline R d increases R p and especially in the tropics. Compared to new baseline, revised instantaneous response decreases R p for mid-latitudes, while acclimation lowers this for the tropics with increases elsewhere. Under global warming, new R d estimates amplify modelled respiration increases, although partially lowered by acclimation. Future measurements will refine how R d aggregates to whole-plant respiration. With this being said, our analysis suggests R p could be around 30% higher than existing estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗