Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “gas target”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Physics-Based Limiter Redesign and Bit Performance Analysis at The Geysers

As part of a U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Office funding opportunity, Geysers Power Company, LLC (GPC), an indirect subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, partnered with Sandia National Labs, EGI at the University of Utah, and Texas A&M University to demonstrate increased drilling performance at The Geysers Geothermal Field. The performance target in the drilling demonstrations is at least a 25% improvement in rates of penetration, with increased footage on bottom for each bit coupled with increased bit life and time drilling. The project leverages advances in oil and gas drilling technologies including PDC bits, along with the physics-based limiter redesign techniques championed in drilling demonstrations conducted at the Utah FORGE geothermal site. The planned drilling demonstrations are being conducted as part of an existing drilling campaign intended to enhance reservoir utilization. The wells are typically drilled to the top of the reservoir with mud and then air-drilled to total depth (TD) through fractured zones at temperatures ≥ 450°F. A major goal of the project is to assess the effectiveness of implementing mechanical specific energy (MSE) and drilling dysfunction diagnosis and remediation in these challenging environments, as well as alternate rock reduction technologies. The first demonstration well has been completed, with 15 PDC bit runs in the 17.5”, 12.25” and 8.5” sections. Initial analysis shows ROP gains in all three sections, especially in the 17.5” and 12.25” sections, compared with conventional roller cone bit runs in the demonstration well and offset wells. However, in the 8.5” hole, wear and damage to the PDC bits resulted in relatively short bit runs. Analysis is underway to take advantage of the positive results and remediate the challenges. This paper provides updates on drilling activities conducted since the Phase 1 demonstration well at GDC-36 which was drilled from November 2023-January 2024. Additional analysis of the bit performance has been conducted. Furthermore, in subsequent wells drilled by GPC, PDC bits have been used extensively, building on the gains realized at GDC-36. GPC has continued to work with bit vendors to identify designs that last longer in the harsh, air-drilled 8.5” portions of the wells. Planning for the Phase 2 demonstration at Prati-44 is ongoing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Approximate Simulation of Acute Hypobaric Hypoxia with Normobaric Hypoxia

INTRODUCTION. Some manufacturers of reduced oxygen (O2) breathing devices claim a comparable hypobaric hypoxia (HH) training experience by providing F(sub I) O2 < 0.209 at or near sea level pressure to match the ambient O2 partial pressure (iso-pO2) of the target altitude. METHODS. Literature from investigators and manufacturers indicate that these devices may not properly account for the 47 mmHg of water vapor partial pressure that reduces the inspired partial pressure of O2 (P(sub I) O2). Nor do they account for the complex reality of alveolar gas composition as defined by the Alveolar Gas Equation. In essence, by providing iso-pO2 conditions for normobaric hypoxia (NH) as for HH exposures the devices ignore P(sub A)O2 and P(sub A)CO2 as more direct agents to induce signs and symptoms of hypoxia during acute training exposures. RESULTS. There is not a sufficient integrated physiological understanding of the determinants of P(sub A)O2 and P(sub A)CO2 under acute NH and HH given the same hypoxic pO2 to claim a device that provides isohypoxia. Isohypoxia is defined as the same distribution of hypoxia signs and symptoms under any circumstances of equivalent hypoxic dose, and hypoxic pO2 is an incomplete hypoxic dose. Some devices that claim an equivalent HH experience under NH conditions significantly overestimate the HH condition, especially when simulating altitudes above 10,000 feet (3,048 m). CONCLUSIONS. At best, the claim should be that the devices provide an approximate HH experience since they only duplicate the ambient pO2 at sea level as at altitude (iso-pO2 machines). An approach to reduce the overestimation is to at least provide machines that create the same P(sub I)O2 (iso-P(sub I)O2 machines) conditions at sea level as at the target altitude, a simple software upgrade.

Conkin, J.↗

More Intelligent Gas Turbine Engines

Increased emphasis on aircraft safety, enhanced performance and affordability, and the need to reduce the environmental impact of aircrafts are being addressed through the concept of Intelligent Propulsion Systems. These systems are potentially enabled through increased efficiencies of components through active control, advanced diagnostics and prognostics integrated with intelligent engine control, and distributed control with smart sensors and actuators. The focus of this report is on "On-Board Intelligence", and the discussions are limited to the overall engine gas-path performance perspective. The emphasis throughout the report is on identifying the sensor and actuator needs to realize these intelligent engine concepts and identifying the current sensor and actuator technologies and roadmaps for emerging technologies. The report is of interest both to the "Customers" to understand the investment needs and the "Researchers" and "Technology Developers" to understand the technology needs for closing the gap from current sensor and actuator capabilities to future performance and universal requirements and targets.

active control↗

Markets and Economic Requirements for Fission Batteries and Other Nuclear Systems

Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Factors controlling pore network development of thermally mature Early Palaeozoic mudstones from the Baltic Basin (N Poland)

Understanding the formation of pore space, especially in low porosity shales (as source rocks and as unconventional resources), is critical to the oil and gas industry, since pores control the space available for hydrocarbon and participate in hydrocarbon transport. We examined 87 Ordovician and Silurian mudstone samples collected from four wells located in the Pomeranian part of the Baltic Basin (northern Poland), one of the primary Polish targets for hydrocarbon exploration. These samples represent the Pelplin, the Paslek, the Jantar, the Prabuty, and the Sasino Formations, which still requires more detailed porosity studies. Our study aimed to identify factors controlling porosity development, by applying bulk techniques (organic petrology and TOC analyses, quantitative mineralogy, and porosimetry) as well as nano- to microscale techniques (thin section petrography, electron microscopy). The studied samples are mainly argillaceous mudstones. The results of porosimetry measurements, combined with image analysis, indicate that the pores of all studied rocks are dominated by micropores (pores < 2 nm in diameter), mesopores (2-50 nm in diameter) and small macropores. The SEM images showed three main pore types: a) voids related to clay mineral aggregates, b) pores inside organic matter particles, and c) pores between other mineral grains. In the Jantar and Sasino mudstones, the organic matter content and its thermal maturity control porosity. The occurrence of solid bitumen in the rocks from these formations reduces samples’ mesoporosity because of the pore-clogging effect. In contrast, in the Paslek and Prabuty Formations, there is low organic matter content and specific surface area and the volume of mesopores increase with clay minerals content. In the Pelplin mudstones, there are no prevailing factors controlling porosity. As a result, we suggest that a combination of SEM image analysis and dual liquid porosity (DLP) measurements is a powerful method to assess porosity available for petroleum flow in mudstones.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Pilot scale testing of an advanced solvent in a 0.7 MWe post-combustion CO 2 capture unit

An advanced Amine Promoted Buffer Solution (APBS), APBS-CDRMax® (CDRMax), developed by Carbon Clean Solutions Limited (CCSL), was tested at the 0.7 MWe CO 2 capture facility at Kentucky Utilities E.W. Brown Generation Station using a heat-integrated two-staged stripping CO 2 capture process. The performance of the solvent was evaluated to determine operating conditions that maximized the cyclic capacity of the solvent and results in energy savings. The regeneration energy ranged from 2.9 to 3.3 GJ/ton CO 2 with 14 vol % (dry) CO 2 inlet and approximately 90 % capture. The difference in the reboiler specific heat duty at stripper pressures of 1.7 and 2.1 bar was minimal as similar amounts of water vapor were observed in the CO 2 product stream at stripper outlet. Recycling of product CO 2 increased the inlet CO 2 concentration to the absorber from 14 to 16 vol% which enhanced mass transfer from the gas to the solvent resulting in about 5 % reduction in the energy of regeneration at the lower stripper pressure. The solvent circulation rate was reduced by about 30 % relative to previous 30 wt% MEA campaign for the CO 2 target capture of 90 %. Finally, the reduced solvent make-up rate of CDRMax shows promise for capital and operating cost savings for post-combustion CO 2 capture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Fatigue Behavior of Rough AM Surfaces and Microstructures to Enable Hydrogen Gas Turbine Combustion

Modification of fossil-fueled industrial gas turbines to accept no/low carbon fuels (Hydrogen, H2/natural gas blends) is a significant undertaking. Successful deployment of this technology sits at the intersection of three design criteria (1) new functional fuel injectors that can burn these fuels, (2) manufacturability to meet cost and time-to-market targets, and (3) durability in the harsh environment of an operating turbine. Additive manufacturing (AM) provides accelerated product development. However, uncertainty remains around the durability of parts with rough AM surfaces. A fully experimental approach towards quantifying fatigue performance of rough AM microstructures is costly and laborious. Instead, Solar Turbines Incorporated (Solar) proposes the use of a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model to quantify the factors that drive AM surface fatigue behavior. Solar will use the CPFE results, along with targeted experimental data, to train a computationally efficient surrogate model that can be incorporated into existing turbine part lifing methods.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Ultraviolet spectroscopy of meteoric debris of comets

It is proposed to carry out slitless spectroscopy at ultraviolet wavelengths from orbit of meteoric debris associated with comets. The Eta Aquarid and Orionid/Halley and the Perseid/1962 862 Swift-Tuttle showers would be principal targets. Low light level, ultraviolet video technique will be used during night side of the orbit in a wide field, earthward viewing mode. Data will be stored in compact video cassette recorders. The experiment may be configured as a GAS package or in the HITCHHIKER mode. The latter would allow flexible pointing capability beyond that offered by shuttle orientation of the GAS package, and doubling of the data record. The 1100 to 3200 A spectral region should show emissions of atomic, ionic, and molecular species of interest on cometary and solar system studies.

Wdowiak, T. J.↗

Ultraviolet spectroscopy of meteoric debris: In situ calibration experiments from Earth orbit

It is proposed to carry out slitless spectroscopy at ultraviolet wavelengths from orbit of meteoric debris associated with comets. The Eta Aquarid, Orionid/Halley, and the Persied/1962 862 Swift-Tuttle showers would be principal targets. Low light level, ultraviolet video technique will be used during night side of the orbit in a wide field, earthward viewing mode. Data will be stored in compact video cassette recorders. The experiment may be configured as a GAS package or in the HITCHHIKER mode. The latter would allow flexible pointing capability beyond that offered by shuttle orientation of the GAS package, and doubling of the data record. The 1100 to 3200 A spectral region should show emissions of atomic, ionic, and molecular species of interest on cometary and solar system studies.

Nuth, J. A., III↗

Debris-cloud collisions: Accretion studies in the Space Station

The growth of planetesimals in the Solar System reflects the success of collisional aggregation over disruption. It is widely assumed that aggregation must represent relatively low encounter velocities between two particles in order to avoid both disruption and high-ejecta velocities. Such an assumption is supported by impact experiments and theory. Experiments involving particle-particle impacts, however, may be pertinent to only one type of collisional process in the early Solar System. Most models envision a complex protoplanetary nebular setting involving gas and dust. Consequently, collisions between clouds of dust or solids and dust may be a more relistic picture of protoplanetary accretion. Recent experiments performed at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range have produced debris clouds impacting particulate targets with velocities ranging from 100 m/s to 6 km/s. The experiments produced several intriguing results that not only warrant further study but also may encourage experiments with the impact conditions permitted in a microgravity environment. Possible Space Station experiments are briefly discussed.

Schultz, Peter H.↗

Ion bombardment experiments suggesting an origin for organic particles in pre-cometary and cometary ices

During the Giotto and Vega encounters with Comet Halley both organic particles called CHON and energetic ions were detected. The acceleration of ions to hundreds of keV in the vicinity of the bow shock and near the nucleus may be a demonstration of a situation occurring in the early solar system (perhaps during the T Tauri stage) that led to the formation of organic particles only now released. Utilizing a Van de Graaff accelerator and a target chamber having cryogenic and mass spectrometer capabilities, frozen gases were bombarded at 10 K with 175 keV protons with the result that fluffy solid material remains after sublimation of the ice. Initial experiments were carried out with a gas mixture in parts of 170 carbon monoxide, 170 argon, 25 water, 20 nitrogen, and 15 methane formulated to reflect an interstellar composition in experiments involving the freezing out of the products of a plasma. The plasma experiments resulted in a varnish-like film residue that exhibited luminescence when excited with ultraviolet radiation, while the ion bombardment created particulate material that was not luminescent.

Wdowiak, Thomas J.↗

Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse

To satisfy the Major Constituents Analysis (MCA) requirements for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor (VCAM), this software analyzes the relative abundance ratios for N2, O2, Ar, and CO2 as a function of time and constructs their best-estimate mean. A histogram is first built of all abundance ratios for each of the species vs time. The abundance peaks corresponding to the intended measurement and any obfuscating background are then separated via standard peak-finding techniques in histogram space. A voting scheme is then used to include/exclude this particular time sample in the final average based on its membership to the intended measurement or the background population. This results in a robust and reasonable estimate of the abundance of trace components such as CO2 and Ar even in the presence of obfuscating backgrounds internal to the VCAM device. VCAM can provide a means for monitoring the air within the enclosed environments, such as the ISS (International Space Station), Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), a Lunar Habitat, or another vehicle traveling to Mars. Its miniature pre-concentrator, gas chromatograph (GC), and mass spectrometer can provide unbiased detection of a large number of organic species as well as MCA analysis. VCAM s software can identify the concentration of trace chemicals and whether the chemicals are on a targeted list of hazardous compounds. This innovation s performance and reliability on orbit, along with the ground team s assessment of its raw data and analysis results, will validate its technology for future use and development.

Mandrake, Lukas↗

The Ames Vertical Gun Range

The Ames Vertical Gun Range (AVGR) is a national facility for conducting laboratory- scale investigations of high-speed impact processes. It provides a set of light-gas, powder, and compressed gas guns capable of accelerating projectiles to speeds up to 7 km s(exp -1). The AVGR has a unique capability to vary the angle between the projectile-launch and gravity vectors between 0 and 90 deg. The target resides in a large chamber (diameter approximately 2.5 m) that can be held at vacuum or filled with an experiment-specific atmosphere. The chamber provides a number of viewing ports and feed-throughs for data, power, and fluids. Impacts are observed via high-speed digital cameras along with investigation-specific instrumentation, such as spectrometers. Use of the range is available via grant proposals through any Planetary Science Research Program element of the NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) calls. Exploratory experiments (one to two days) are additionally possible in order to develop a new proposal.

The chamber provides a number of viewing ports and↗

Modeling the effect of nitrogen recycling on the erosion and leakage of tungsten impurities from the SAS-VW divertor in DIII-D during nitrogen gas injection

The new SAS-VW divertor in DIII-D has tungsten-coated components to enable the study of tungsten erosion and leakage from a closed, slot-like divertor. A proposed method of actively managing the tungsten impurities is to inject low-Z impurities, such as nitrogen, into the Scrape-off-Layer (SOL) to modify the conditions in the plasma boundary and in turn manipulate both the erosion and subsequent transport of tungsten. Nitrogen injection from the SOL crown has been modeled using SOLPS-ITER to calculate the background plasma including the intrinsic carbon and the injected nitrogen impurities, and subsequently DIVIMP has been used to calculate the tungsten erosion and transport on top of the background plasma solution. This workflow has been used to model scenarios at a variety of nitrogen injection rates with different assumptions about the nitrogen recycling at the target. In the scenario modeled here, an optimal nitrogen injection rate around 3-4 x 10 20 N/s is found to reduce the amount of tungsten reaching the core by a factor of about 2.4. However, when the nitrogen recycling rate at the divertor targets is high, the nitrogen redistributes within the slot leading to increased tungsten sputtering, and the range of injection rates resulting in tungsten mitigation becomes narrower.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Atomic Layer Deposition for Materials-Based H2 Storage: Opportunities and Limitations

The transportation demands in our growing hydrogen (H2) economy requires robust storage systems. The current commercially implemented technology in fuel cell cars relies on the well-established technology of hydrogen gas compressed to 350-700 bar, depending on the application. The compressed gas tanks in use today are bulky and cost intensive. To address this challenge, material-based storage is one of the long-term alternatives considered and constitutes the focus of this talk. Material-based storage is broadly defined as hydrogen bound to solid materials, with its binding strength varying from physisorption to porous materials, such as zeolites and metal organic frameworks, to chemisorption in (complex) metal hydrides. The ultimate targets set by the U.S. Department of Energy for this technology include a system gravimetric capacity of 6.5 wt% and volumetric capacity of 40 g/L at 100 bar, operating temperatures ranging between -40 C and +40 C and adsorption/desorption timescales of < 5 min. Storage in the form of physisorbed or chemisorbed hydrogen has guided the materials research, which metal- organic framework and (complex) metal hydrides being the most promising materials classes. A variety of these materials have met one or more of the targets, but it has remained elusive for a single material system to meet all these stringent requirements. Nano-encapsulation and low-concentration chemical additives have previously been employed separately to overcome such challenges. Functionalization via atomic layer deposition (ALD), however, offers unique characteristics that make it suitable for both, nano-encapsulation and "doping" with low-concentration additives. This deposition technique has sub-monolayer thickness control, is highly conformal in high-surface area materials and is self-limiting, i.e., once the gas-phase precursor reacts with the available surface sites, the surface reactions stop. In this presentation, we will showcase examples where ALD, more generally vapor-phase functionalization, on (complex) metal hydrides and organic frameworks has improved the material properties for H2 storage. In our first study, Al2O3 was deposited on magnesium borohydride, Mg(BH4)2, at room temperature using trimethylaluminum (TMA) and water. From our findings, encouraging initial results were obtained: the H2 desorption temperature was lowered by 60-120 degrees C, the desorbed gravimetric H2 capacity at temperatures < 250 degrees C was doubled, and the desorption kinetics increased by a factor of ~6 compared to uncoated Mg(BH4)2. However, hydrolysis reactions caused by residual surface -OH groups from the ALD water-pulse degraded the sample substantially. Through this study, the use of TMA was observed to be highly reactive with the Mg(BH4)2 surface species, leading to the strategy of exposing the sample only to TMA. The relative mole fraction of the vapor-phase additive can be precisely controlled with the number of TMA pulses and pulse duration. By tuning these parameters, we show in our second study that 10 pulses of TMA at ambient conditions were able to decrease the H2 desorption temperature by ~100 degrees C while retaining <95 % of its H2 capacity. We applied this approach with other additives such as BBr3, TiCl4 and tetrahydrofuran, and demonstrate that this unique approach opens the door to a new class of molecular additives and catalysts which cannot easily be introduced with conventional mechano-chemical or solvent-based techniques for (complex) metal-hydrides. In the case of metal organic frameworks, ALD is a promising technique to functionalize the pores with metal atoms or functional groups able to tune the gas selectivity and binding energy, for which ~15 kJ/mol has been established as the optimal value for H2 storage in sorbent materials. Vapor-phase techniques such as ALD have numerous benefits over other functionalization tools for H2 storage materials opening innumerable opportunities to the field. To exploit these opportunities, the current limitations on room temperature and water-less ALD processes needs to be overcome which will greatly expand the possibilities of encapsulation and incorporation of additives for organic frameworks and (complex) metal hydrides.

atomic layer deposition↗

Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Volume 5: Natural Gas Electricity Generating Units for Flexible Operation

To address the data needs of energy system designers and to serve as a baseline for research and development, NETL has carried out a study to characterize the flexibility attributes - both performance and cost - of nine common commercial natural gas-fueled electricity generating units. The intermittent output of low-carbon, renewable power generation sources such as wind and solar create challenges to grid stability and reliability. Fossil-fueled power generation technologies are currently used to provide reliable, on-demand power during periods of reduced renewable output. Dispatchable generators must be able to accommodate increasing renewable generation as the nation pursues the Administration’s target of a decarbonized energy sector by 2035. As energy system experts seek to identify least-cost approaches to decarbonization, accurate cost and performance data characterizing dispatchable fossil generators that operate flexibly, at capacity factors that have been declining over time, and are needed to inform models for capacity expansion. Furthermore, these technologies continue to be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions, providing the impetus for research and development, including the advancement and potential incorporation of carbon capture technologies. This study characterizes the cost and performance of select state-of-the-art natural gas-fueled power generation technologies: reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), simple cycle combustion turbines, and natural gas combined cycles (NGCC). An emphasis is placed on flexibility characteristics, such as part-load heat rate, ramp rates, start up times, and start up costs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗