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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

An Intercomparison of Radiation Codes for Retrieving Upper Tropospheric Humidity in the 6.3-micron Band: A Report from the 1st GVaP Workshop

An intercomparison of radiation codes used in retrieving upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) from observations in the v2 (6.3 microns) water vapor absorption band was performed. This intercomparison is one part of a coordinated effort within the GEWEX Water Vapor Project (GVaP) to assess our ability to monitor the distribution and variations of upper tropospheric moisture from space-borne sensors. A total of 23 different codes, ranging from detailed line-by-line (LBL) models, to coarser resolution narrow-band (NB) models, to highly-parameterized single-band (SB) models participated in the study. Forward calculations were performed using a carefully selected set of temperature and moisture profiles chosen to be representative of a wide range of atmospheric conditions. The LBL model calculations exhibited the greatest consistency with each other, typically agreeing to within 0.5 K in terms of the equivalent blackbody brightness temperature (T(sub b)). The majority of NB and SB models agreed to within +/- 1 K of the LBL models, although a few older models exhibited systematic T(sub b) biases in excess of 2 K. A discussion of the discrepancies between various models, their association with differences in model physics (e.g. continuum absorption), and their implications for UTH retrieval and radiance assimilation is presented.

Soden, B.↗

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multistream and Monte Carlo calculations of the sun's aureole

The scattered UV intensities in the sun's aureole are calculated using both a multi-stream scattering method and a Monte Carlo approach. Angular distributions for both Rayleigh and aerosol scatterings are obtained with a realistic atmospheric model. Moderate- and sharply-forward-peaked phase functions of aerosol scattering, corresponding to realistic analytic size distributions, are incorporated. Results from the two independent calculations are in reasonable agreement for a realistic atmospheric model. The results indicate that the scattered UV intensity in the sun's aureole is about four orders smaller than the transmitted intensity while the scattered intensity for pure Rayleigh scattering is only 1-10 millionths times that of the transmitted sun. Based on these intensity ratios, we estimate that the integrated scattered contributions from the aureole to a well-collimated sun photometer of acceptance aperture 2-3 deg are below about 1% of the direct contribution.

Furman, D. R.↗

An efficient instance segmentation approach for studying fission gas bubbles in irradiated metallic nuclear fuel

Abstract Gaseous fission products from nuclear fission reactions tend to form fission gas bubbles of various shapes and sizes inside nuclear fuel. The behavior of fission gas bubbles dictates nuclear fuel performances, such as fission gas release, grain growth, swelling, and fuel cladding mechanical interaction. Although mechanical understanding of the overall evolution behavior of fission gas bubbles is well known, lacking the quantitative data and high-level correlation between burnup/temperature and microstructure evolution blocks the development of predictive models and reduces the possibility of accelerating the qualification for new fuel forms. Historical characterization of fission gas bubbles in irradiated nuclear fuel relied on a simple threshold method working on low-resolution optical microscopy images. Advanced characterization of fission gas bubbles using scanning electron microscopic images reveals unprecedented details and extensive morphological data, which strains the effectiveness of conventional methods. This paper proposes a hybrid framework, based on digital image processing and deep learning models, to efficiently detect and classify fission gas bubbles from scanning electron microscopic images. The developed bubble annotation tool used a multitask deep learning network that integrates U-Net and ResNet to accomplish instance-level bubble segmentation. With limited annotated data, the model achieves a recall ratio of more than 90%, a leap forward compared to the threshold method. The model has the capability to identify fission gas bubbles with and without lanthanides to better understand the movement of lanthanide fission products and fuel cladding chemical interaction. Lastly, the deep learning model is versatile and applicable to the micro-structure segmentation of similar materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of Charged Solute-Solvent Interaction on Reservoir Temperature during Subsurface CO2 Injection

A short-term side-effect of CO2 injection is a developing low-pH front that forms ahead of the bulk water injectant, due to differences in solute diffusivity. Observations of downhole well temperature show a reduction in aqueous-phase temperature with the arrival of a low-pH front, followed by a gradual rise in temperature upon the arrival of a high concentration of bicarbonate ion. In this work, we model aqueous-phase transient heat advection and diffusion, with the volumetric energy generation rate computed from solute-solvent interaction using the Helgeson–Kirkham–Flowers (HKF) model, which is based on the Born Solvation model, for computing specific molar heat capacity and the enthalpy of charged electrolytes. A computed injectant water temperature profile is shown to agree with the actual bottom hole sampled temperature acquired from sensors. The modeling of aqueous-phase temperature during subsurface injection simulation is important for the accurate modeling of mineral dissolution and precipitation because forward dissolution rates are governed by a temperature-dependent Arrhenius model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Calibration and validation of the foundation for a multiphase strength model for tin

In this work, the Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State (CMMP) model was applied to tin. Specifically, calibrations of the strength-specific elements of the CMMP foundation were developed with a combination of experiments and theory, and then the model was validated experimentally. The first element of the foundation is a multi-phase analytic treatment of the melt temperature and the shear modulus for the solid phases. These models were parameterized for each phase based on ab initio calculations using the software VASP (Vienna Ab initio Simulations Package) based on density functional theory. The shear modulus model for the ambient phase was validated with ultrasonic sound speed measurements as a function of pressure and temperature. The second element of the foundation is a viscoplastic strength model for the phase, upon which strength for inaccessible higher-pressure phases can be scaled as necessary. The stress–strain response of tin was measured at strain rates of 10 -3 to 3 x 10 3 s -1 and temperatures ranging from 87 to 373 K. The Preston–Tonks–Wallace (PTW) strength model was fit to that data using Bayesian model calibration. For validation, six forward and two reverse Taylor impact experiments were performed at different velocities to measure large plastic deformation of tin at strain rates up to ⁠10 5 s -1 . The PTW model accurately predicted the deformed shapes of the cylinders, with modest discrepancies attributed to the inability of PTW to capture the effects of twinning and dynamic recrystallization. Some material in the simulations of higher velocity Taylor cylinders reached the melting temperature, thus testing the multiphase model because of the presence of a second phase, the liquid. In simulations using a traditional modeling approach, the abrupt reduction of strength upon melt resulted in poor predictions of the deformed shape and non-physical temperatures. With CMMP, the most deformed material points evolved gradually to a mixed solid–liquid but never a fully liquid state, never fully lost strength, stayed at the melt temperature as the latent heat of fusion was absorbed, and predicted the deformed shape well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calibration and validation of the foundation for a multiphase strength model for tin

In this work, the Common Model of Multi-phase Strength and Equation of State (CMMP) model was applied to tin. Specifically, calibrations of the strength-specific elements of the CMMP foundation were developed with a combination of experiments and theory, and then the model was validated experimentally. The first element of the foundation is a 10 multi-phase analytic treatment of the melt temperature and the shear modulus for the solid phases. These models were parameterized for each phase based on ab initio calculations using the software VASP (Vienna Ab initio Simulations Package) based on density functional theory (DFT). The shear modulus model for the ambient β phase was validated with ultrasonic sound speed measurements as a function of pressure and temperature. The second element of the foundation is a viscoplastic strength model for the β phase, upon which strength for inaccessible higher-pressure phases can be scaled as necessary. The stress-strain response of tin was measured at strain rates of 10 -3 to 3 x 10 3 s -1 and temperatures ranging from 87 to 373 K. The Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model was fit to that data using Bayesian model calibration. For validation, six forward and two reverse Taylor impact experiments were performed at different velocities to measure large plastic deformation of tin at strain rates up to 10 5 s -1 . The PTW model accurately predicted the deformed shapes of the cylinders, with modest discrepancies attributed to the inability 20 of PTW to capture the effects of twinning and dynamic recrystallization. Some material in the simulations of higher velocity Taylor cylinders reached the melting temperature, thus testing the multiphase model because of the presence of a second phase, the liquid. In simulations using a traditional modeling approach, the abrupt reduction of strength upon melt resulted in poor predictions of the deformed shape and non-physical temperatures. With CMMP, the most deformed material points evolved gradually to a mixed solid-liquid but never fully liquid state, never fully lost strength, 25 stayed at the melt temperature as the latent heat of fusion was absorbed, and predicted the deformed shape well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Model Error↗

Optimization of a Radiative Transfer Forward Operator for Simulating SMOS Brightness Temperatures over the Upper Mississippi Basin, USA

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission is routinely providing global multi-angular observations of brightness temperature (TB) at both horizontal and vertical polarization with a 3-day repeat period. The assimilation of such data into a land surface model (LSM) may improve the skill of operational flood forecasts through an improved estimation of soil moisture (SM). To accommodate for the direct assimilation of the SMOS TB data, the LSM needs to be coupled with a radiative transfer model (RTM), serving as a forward operator for the simulation of multi-angular and multi-polarization top of atmosphere TBs. This study investigates the use of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) LSM coupled with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling platform (CMEM) for simulating SMOS TB observations over the Upper Mississippi basin, USA. For a period of 2 years (2010-2011), a comparison between SMOS TBs and simulations with literature-based RTM parameters reveals a basin averaged bias of 30K. Therefore, time series of SMOS TB observations are used to investigate ways for mitigating these large biases. Specifically, the study demonstrates the impact of the LSM soil moisture climatology in the magnitude of TB biases. After CDF matching the SM climatology of the LSM to SMOS retrievals, the average bias decreases from 30K to less than 5K. Further improvements can be made through calibration of RTM parameters related to the modeling of surface roughness and vegetation. Consequently, it can be concluded that SM rescaling and RTM optimization are efficient means for mitigating biases and form a necessary preparatory step for data assimilation.

SMOS↗

Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is composed of a commentary about the state of Integrated, Coordinated, Open, and Networked (ICON) principles in Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology (VGP), and discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. VGP encompasses a broad field that addresses volcanic, magmatic, hydrothermal, geomicrobial systems; process investigations that span the physical, geochemical and biological realms, including planetary geology; and one that is extensively supported by state-of-the-art research facilities. We suggest that an open, inclusive, collaborative and evolving model of an international coordinated network is critical to answering the most pressing challenges in VGP. In this commentary piece, we begin to discuss the elements of, challenges to, and path forward in developing such a model. For this team, ICON means collaboration, equitable access to data for the entire scientific community, and forging of partnerships that potentially contribute to more innovative ways of coordinating and sharing research. It also means bringing more equity to science, by implementing effective measures which consider access to funding, analytical equipment, resources, and mentors. More importantly, ICON to us means having important conversations around what we value in the advancement of science, perhaps exploring outside the idea of meritocracy and evaluating what individual traits can contribute to science outside what has traditionally been considered the norm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of forward velocity on sound radiation from convecting monopole and dipole sources in jet flow

A theoretical model is presented of the effects of forward velocity of an aircraft at arbitrary subsonic speed on sound radiated from convecting monopole and dipole sources embedded in the jet flow. It is found that with increasing forward velocity there is a steadily increasing amplification (over the static case) of the sound radiated into the forward arc and a large reduction of the sound which is radiated into the rearward arc. The same trend is also shown to result when there is a reduction in the exhaust velocity, with, however, a further rise in amplification in the forward quadrant and a drop in attenuation in the aft quadrant.

Dash, R.↗

Paths Forward for Nuclear Energy: Using a Nationwide Post-Stratified Hierarchical Model to Facilitate Matching of New Nuclear Technologies to Receptive Host Communities

This project was a collaboration between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and the University of Michigan (UMich). The overall objective of the project was to address a critical problem facing the siting of nuclear facilities, where there is no mechanism for incorporating public attitudes at a state and local level into decision-making. Utilizing recent advances in data modeling over local spatial scales, the research team created a state and county level map of public attitudes towards nuclear energy. Current estimates for public acceptance of nuclear technologies primarily exists on a national level, and sub-national estimates of public opinion about reactor siting, research facilities, transport routes, or storage and disposal facilities are very scarce. Model results from this project provide a systematic basis for technology developers to evaluate public acceptance across alternative siting options as a critical component for weighing potential benefit-cost tradeoffs for alternative paths to deploy new nuclear facilities. The project utilized data from the largest database of nuclear attitudes in the US, coupled with Census and elections-related data as well as data on social vulnerability and proximity to current nuclear facilities. In addition to modeling public support, the team also developed an interactive map to showcase results, using an online tool called Public and Local Attitudes about Nuclear Energy Technologies (PLANET). The tool allows technology developers and stakeholders to interact with the model results and better understand variation in support for nuclear facility siting on a state and county level. The interactive nature of the tool also allows users to analyze results in a targeted way, by comparing levels of support across different states and/or counties as desired.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

M3SF-24LL010302052-Comprehensive Analysis of Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Work Package Number SF-24LL01030205. The research is focused on actinide and radionuclide sequestration in hydrothermally altered repository materials. In FY24, we completed a rigorous analysis of Se sorption to iron oxide phases using our L-SCIE sorption database. This effort explicitly accounts for surface titration behavior of oxide surfaces that was the subject of a recently published manuscript (Han et al., 2023). With this in mind, our Se sorption analysis now yields a more robust workflow for developing self-consistent surface complexation modeling approaches that can be adapted to specific SCM conceptual and numerical approaches (i.e. non-electrostatic, diffuse layer, triple layer models). In late FY24, we plan to publish the results of our comprehensive surface complexation modeling of Se(IV) and Se(VI) sorption to iron oxide mineral phases and provide a path forward to developing robust radionuclide sorption models for use in performance assessment. In FY24, we also submitted a manuscript summarizing our approach to integrating radionuclide sorption and coprecipitation phenomena and evaluation of radionuclide partitioning values across a range of radionuclides relevant to performance assessment. We demonstrated our approach in detail using Se sorption and coprecipitation with iron oxide minerals as a test case. This manuscript was recently accepted for publication in Applied Geochemistry (Balboni et al., Accepted). We also continued experiments to identify radionuclide interaction with hydrothermally altered crystalline repository and backfill materials. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are now examining how mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database, developed using our L-SCIE approach, can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. A short update of results to date is presented below.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Computational studies in low speed rotor aerodynamics

Recently, curved vortex elements have been developed for use in helicopter free wake calculations. As previously documented, these elements allow more efficient and accurate calculation of the wake-on-wake interactions than do traditional straight vortex elements. Curved elements have been applied here to the prediction of the rotor wake geometry and its associated inflow distribution in low speed forward flight. By coupling the wake model to a blade dynamic analysis, a simulation capable of predicting blade motion and hub moments in forward flight has been developed. The resulting code has been validated by successful predictions of the lateral flapping of articulated rotors in low speed level flight, and additional simulators of climb and descent have been undertaken. Successful correlation of other experimental data, including moments due to cyclic on hingeless rotors and transient thrust response in hover, has given encouraging evidence of the capabilities of this code as a tool for analysis of the low speed regime.

Quackenbush, Todd R.↗

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗

Acoustic characteristics of a large upper-surface blown configuration with turbofan engines

This paper presents acoustic results from static and simulated low forward velocity tests of a large-scale model of an aircraft configuration with two turbofan engines in the full-scale tunnel at the Langley Research Center. The turbofan engines were integrated into the model and equipped with rectangular nozzles to provide the upper-surface blowing. Results indicate that the upper-surface-blowing noise problem can be characterized, primarily, by the unsymmetrical radiation pattern due mainly to shielding of the high-frequency engine noise and the production of low-frequency noise by jet-surface interaction. The directivity of the low-frequency noise was found to depend on the trailing-edge flap angle when the thrust levels were low. Normalized sound pressure level spectral density data showed good agreement at low Strouhal number with other small- and large-scale model data from tests using simulated wing-flap systems. Forward speed effects were undetectable at the low tunnel speeds used during the tests.

Preisser, J. S.↗

An improved three-dimensional aerodynamics model for helicopter airloads prediction

The importance of unsteady aerodynamic effects due to rotor blade motion is demonstrated for a helicopter in high-speed forward flight. These unsteady effects are modeled as surface boundary conditions to a three-dimensional, unsteady Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code called the Full-Potential Rotor Code (FPR). These boundary conditions cause significant changes in the computed lift and pitching moment at the front and rear of the rotor disk. Airloads from the modified FPR code are then iteratively coupled with the helicopter comprehensive code, CAMRAD/JA. Computed airloads show good agreement with flight-test data when lift values from the FPR code are used in the coupled calculation. However, the computed airloads from CAMRAD/JA along also show good agreement with the experimental data. Thus for this case one cannot demonstrate a significant improvement in computed airloads with the hybrid coupled scheme. The addition of the pitching moment values from the FPR code into the CAMRAD/JA calculation slows down the overall iterative convergence and does not yield any improvement in the final results.

Strawn, Roger C.↗

Hydride-based thermal energy storage

Abstract The potential and research surrounding metal hydride (MH) based thermal energy storage is discussed, focusing on next generation thermo-chemical energy storage (TCES) for concentrated solar power. The site availability model to represent the reaction mechanisms of both the forward and backward MH reaction is presented, where this model is extrapolated to a small pilot scale reactor, detailing how a TCES could function/operate in a real-world setting using a conventional shell & tube reactor approach. Further, the important parameter of effective thermal conductivity is explored using an innovative multi-scale model, to providing extensive and relevant experimental data useful for reactor and system design. Promising high temperature MH material configurations may be tuned by either destabilisation, such as using additions to Ca and Sr based hydrides, or by stabilisation, such as fluorine addition to NaH, MgH 2 , or NaMgH 3 . This versatile thermodynamic tuning is discussed, including the challenges in accurately measuring the material characteristics at elevated temperatures (500 –700 °C). Attention to scale up is explored, including generic design and prototype considerations, and an example of a novel pilot-scale pillow-plate reactor currently in development; where materials used are discussed, overall tank design scope and system integration.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗