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This work provides an overview of the ongoing research to better estimate radiation and soot in large-scale pool fires. The core focus of this presentation is on improvements to models for novel physics at larger scales.
The feasibility of conducting environmental chamber tests using a small rocket motor to study the physical processes which occur when the exhaust products from solid motors mix with the ambient atmosphere was investigated. Of particular interest was the interaction between hydrogen chloride, aluminum oxide, and water vapor. Several types of instruments for measuring HCl concentrations were evaluated. Under some conditions it was noted that acid aerosols were formed in the ground cloud. These droplets condensed on Al2O3 nuclei and were associated with the rocket exhaust cooling during the period of plume rise to stabilization. Outdoor firings of the solid rocket motors of a 6.4 percent scaled model of the space shuttle were monitored to study the interaction of the exhaust effluents with vegetation downwind of the test site. Data concerning aluminum oxide particles produced by solid rocket motors were evaluated.
The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) is well suited for observations of the variations of clouds over many temporal and spatial scales. For this reason, GOES data taken during the Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (IFO) (June 29 to July 19, 1987, Kloessel et al.) serve several purposes. One facet of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is improvement of the understanding of cloud parameter retrievals from satellite-observed radiances. This involves comparisons of coincident satellite cloud parameters and high resolution data taken by various instruments on other platforms during the IFO periods. Another aspect of FIRE is the improvement of both large- and small-scale models of stratocumulus used in general circulation models (GCMs). This may involve, among other studies, linking the small-scale processes observed during the IFO to the variations in large-scale cloud fields observed with the satellites during the IFO and Extended Time Observation (ETO) periods. Preliminary results are presented of an analysis of GOES data covering most of the IFO period. The large scale cloud-field characteristics are derived, then related to a longer period of measurements. Finally, some point measurements taken from the surface are compared to regional scale cloud parameters derived from satellite radiances.
A simple parameterization has been developed to simulate global lightning distributions. Convective cloud top height is used as the variable in the parameterization, with different formulations for continental and marine thunderstorms. The parameterization has been validated using two lightning data sets: one global and one regional. In both cases the simulated lightning distributions and frequencies are in very good agreement with the observed lightning data. This parameterization could be used for global studies of lightning climatology; the earth's electric circuit; in general circulation models for modeling global lightning activity, atmospheric NO(x) concentrations, and perhaps forest fire distributions for both the present and future climate; and, possibly, even as a short-term forecasting aid.
Although humans hold great advantages over other species as subjects for biomedical research, they also bring major disadvantages. One is that among the many rhythmic physiological signals that can be recorded, there is no sure way to know which individual change precedes another, or which change represents cause and which represents effect. In an attempt to deal with the inherent complexity of research conducted in intact human subjects, we developed and used a structural equation model to analyse responses of healthy young men to pharmacological changes of arterial pressure and graded inspiratory resistance, before and after vagomimetic atropine. Our model yielded a good fit of the experimental data, with a system weighted R2 of 0.77, and suggested that our treatments exerted both direct and indirect influences on the variables we measured. Thus, infusions of nitroprusside and phenylephrine exerted all of their direct effects by lowering and raising arterial pressure; the changes of R-R intervals, respiratory sinus arrhythmia and arterial pressure fluctuations that these drugs provoked, were indirect consequences of arterial pressure changes. The only direct effect of increased inspiratory resistance was augmentation of arterial pressure fluctuations. These results may provide a new way to disentangle and understand responses of intact human subjects to experimental forcings. The principal new insight we derived from our modelling is that respiratory gating of vagal-cardiac motor neurone firing is nearly maximal at usual levels of arterial pressure and inspiratory motor neurone activity.
An enhanced version of the scheme reported in "Pseudo-Waypoint Guidance for Proximity Spacecraft Maneuvers" (NPO-42753), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 6 (June 2007), page 73 was developed. To recapitulate: the scheme provides algorithms for guidance and control (G&C) of a spacecraft maneuvering near a small astronomical body. The open-loop guidance problem is solved in advance or in real time by use of the pseudo-waypoint generation (PWG) method. Feedback control is implemented to track PWG trajectories, in a manner that enables updating of G&C in a model-predictive manner. The scheme includes silent periods following each thruster firing. The original version of the scheme provides for a fire-first, followed-by-silence sequence, which is disadvantageous in that the silence after final firing precludes reduction of any remaining velocity error -- an unacceptable result in the case of a maneuver for which a specific final velocity is required. In the enhanced version, the scheme is augmented with a fire-second technique, so that the final velocity can be established with a much higher precision because both the guidance and feedback firing can be performed and ceased at the final maneuver time.
We processed and analyzed one-way laser ranging data from International Laser Ranging Service ground stations to NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), obtained from June 13, 2009 until September 30, 2014. We pair and analyze the one-way range observables from station laser fire and spacecraft laser arrival times by using nominal LRO orbit models based on the GRAIL gravity field. We apply corrections for instrument range walk, as well as for atmospheric and relativistic effects. In total we derived a tracking data volume of approximately 3000 hours featuring 64 million Full Rate and 1.5 million Normal Point observations. From a statistical analysis of the dataset we evaluate the experiment and the ground station performance. We observe a laser ranging measurement precision of 12.3 centimeters in case of the Full Rate data which surpasses the LOLA (Lunar Orbiting Laser Altimeter) timestamp precision of 15 centimeters. The averaging to Normal Point data further reduces the measurement precision to 5.6 centimeters. We characterized the LRO clock with fits throughout the mission time and estimated the rate to 6.9 times10 (sup -8), the aging to 1.6 times 10 (sup -12) per day and the change of aging to 2.3 times 10 (sup -14) per day squared over all mission phases. The fits also provide referencing of onboard time to the TDB (Barycentric Dynamical Time) time scale at a precision of 166 nanoseconds over two and 256 nanoseconds over all mission phases, representing ground to space time transfer. Furthermore we measure ground station clock differences from the fits as well as from simultaneous passes which we use for ground to ground time transfer from common view observations. We observed relative offsets ranging from 33 to 560 nanoseconds and relative rates ranging from 2 times 10 (sup -13) to 6 times 10 (sup -12) between the ground station clocks during selected mission phases. We study the results from the different methods and discuss their applicability for time transfer.
Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation from logging and firecontinues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat, and biodiversity in frontier forests along the Amazon arcof deforestation. Limited data on the magnitude of carbon losses and rates of carbon recoveryfollowing forest degradation have hindered carbon accounting efforts and contributed to incompletenational reporting to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+). Wecombined annual time series of Landsat imagery and high-density airborne lidar data to characterizethe variability, magnitude, and persistence of Amazon forest degradation impacts on abovegroundcarbon density (ACD) and canopy structure. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of thecarbon stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15 years of regrowth. Incomparison to logging, understory fires resulted in the largest and longest-lasting differences in ACD.Heterogeneity in burned forest structure varied by fire severity and frequency. Forests with a historyof one, two, and three or more fires retained only 54.4%, 25.2%, and 7.6% of intact ACD,respectively, when measured after a year of regrowth. Unlike the additive impact of successive fires,selective logging before burning did not explain additional variability in modeled ACD loss andrecovery of burned forests. Airborne lidar also provides quantitative measures of habitat structure thatcan aid the estimation of co-benefits of avoided degradation. Notably, forest carbon stocks recoveredfaster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical for biodiversity in tropical forests, includingthe abundance of tall trees. We provide the first comprehensive look-up table of emissions factors forspecific degradation pathways at standard reporting intervals in the Amazon. Estimated carbon lossand recovery trajectories provide an important foundation for assessing the long-term contributionsfrom forest degradation to regional carbon cycling and advance our understanding of the currentstate of frontier forests.
In this paper we present the first early dry season (early June-early August) emission factor measurements for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (Ca), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particulates with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (pM2.5) for southern African grassland and woodland fires. Seasonal emission factors for grassland fires correlate linearly with the proportion of green grass, used as a surrogate for the fuel moisture content, and are higher for products of incomplete combustion in the early part of the dry season compared with later in the dry season. Models of emission factors for NMHC and PM(sub 2.5) versus modified combustion efficiency (MCE) are statistically different in grassland compared with woodland ecosystems. We compare predictions based on the integration of emissions factors from this study, from the southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative 1992 (SAFARI-92), and from SAFARI-2000 with those based on the smaller set of ecosystem-specific emission factors to estimate the effects of using regional-average rather than ecosystem-specific emission factors. We also test the validity of using the SAFARI-92 models for emission factors versus MCE to predict the early dry season emission factors measured in this study. The comparison indicates that the largest discrepancies occur at the low end (0.907) and high end (0.972) of MCE values measured in this study. Finally, we combine our models of MCE versus proportion of green grass for grassland fires with emission factors versus MCE for selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds measured in the SAFARI-2000 campaign to derive the first seasonal emission factors for these compounds. The results of this study demonstrate that seasonal variations in savanna fire emissions are important and should be considered in modeling emissions at regional to continental scales.
Knowledge of the emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) atmospheric constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the modeling and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. Biomass burning emissions are complex and difficult to quantify. However, satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP), which has a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. In this presentation, we will show how the satellite measurement of FRP is facilitating the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and smoke emission rates, and the implications of this unique capability for improving our understanding of smoke impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. We will also discuss some of the challenges and uncertainties associated with satellite measurement of FRP and how they are being addressed.
This paper develops a flexible method for estimating the customer cost of a power outage. We add to the current body of literature by outlining a framework which properly accounts for the effects of outage duration. We begin by separating costs into categories depending on whether the cost varies with outage duration and whether the cost is due to perishable inventory. We derive useful functional forms for each cost category and discuss how parameters vary by load type and outage characteristics. We derive outage cost estimates for an unexpected loss of power to both an example manufacturing plant and an example fire station. The framework described in this paper can easily be employed to model outage costs for a wide range of specific operating conditions.
Abstract Wildfire ecosystems are thought to be self‐regulated through pattern–process interactions between ignition frequency and location, and patterns of burned and recovering vegetation. Yet, recent increases in the frequency of large wildfires call into question the application of self‐organization theory to landscape resilience. Topography represents a stable bottom‐up template upon which fire interacts as both a physical and an ecological process. However, it is unclear how topographic control changes geographically and across spatial scales. We analyzed fire perimeter and topography data from 16 Bailey ecoregions across the State of California to identify spatial correspondence between ecoregional fire event and topographic patch size distributions. We found both sets of distributions followed a power‐law form and were statistically similar across several orders of magnitude, for most ecoregions. As a direct test of topographic controls on fire event perimeters, we used a paired t ‐test across ~11,000 fires to identify differences in topographic attributes at fire boundaries versus fire interiors. Statistical significance was determined using 500 iterations of a neutral landscape model. Level of topographic control varied significantly by ecoregion and across topographic features. For example, north–south aspect breaks, valley bottoms, and roads showed a consistently high degree of spatial control on wildfire perimeters. Topographic controls were most pronounced in mountainous ecoregions and were least influential in arid regions. Ridgetops provided a low‐level control across all ecoregions. Spatial control was strongest for small (10 0 –10 2 ha) to medium (10 3 –10 4 ha) fire sizes, suggesting that controls were scale‐dependent rather than scale‐invariant. Roads were the dominant control across all ecoregions; however, removing roads from the analyses had no significant effect on the overall role of topography on wildfire extinguishment in this analysis. This result suggested that certain topographic settings show strong spatial control on fire growth, despite the presence of roads. Our results support the observation that both bottom‐up and top‐down factors constrain fire sizes and that there are likely scaling regions within fire size distributions wherein the dominance of these spatial controls varies. Human influences on fire spread may either diminish or enhance the role of some bottom‐up and top‐down factors, adding further complexity.
This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.
Longer duration missions to the moon, to Mars, and on the International Space Station (ISS) increase the likelihood of accidental fires. NASA's fire safety program for human-crewed space flight is based largely on removing ignition sources and controlling the flammability of the material on-board. There is ongoing research to improve the flammability characterization of materials in low gravity; however, very little research has been conducted on fire suppression in the low-gravity environment. Although the existing suppression systems aboard the Space Shuttle (halon 1301, CF3Br) and the ISS (CO2 or water-based form) may continue to be used, alternative effective agents or techniques are desirable for long-duration missions. The goal of the present investigation is to: (1) understand the physical and chemical processes of fire suppression in various gravity and O2 levels simulating spacecraft, Mars, and moon missions; (2) provide rigorous testing of analytical models, which include detailed combustion-suppression chemistry and radiation sub-models, so that the model can be used to interpret (and predict) the suppression behavior in low gravity; and (3) provide basic research results useful for advances in space fire safety technology, including new fire-extinguishing agents and approaches.
The probable mechanism underlying the development of boundary layer roll circulations are studied using wind and temperature profiles measured by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra during the stratocumulus phase of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE). The expected, or preferred, roll orientations, horizontal wavelengths, and propagation periods are determined by finding the minimum values of the dynamic and thermodynamic forcing parameters, which here are the eddy Reynolds number (Re) and moist Rayleigh number (Ra sub m). These minimum values depend on the height z sub T of the capping temperature inversion and on the values of the Fourier coefficients of the background height-dependent vector wind profile. As input to our nonlinear spectral model, descent and ascent runs by the Electra provide for initial estimates of the inversion height and the wind profiles. In the first phase of the investigation presented here, a mechanism is said to be a probable contributor to the development of roll circulations within the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer if the modeled roll orientation and wavelengths agree with their observed values. Preliminary results using the 14-coefficient model of Haack-Hirschberg (1988) are discussed for the 7 July 1987 Electra Mission 188-A (Flight 5). This mission was flown across a sharp cloud boundary that was within a LANDSAT/SPOT scene. The stratocumulus deck was relatively solid in the eastern part of the scene, while there was a rapid decrease in cloud cover to scattered cumulus clouds aligned in streets to the west. These cloud streets were oriented nearly parallel to the mean wind direction in the layer, which was approximately 340 degrees. The hypothesis that roll circulations occurred in both the relatively clear and the cloudy regions is investigated using as model input a descent profile obtained in the relatively clear air and an ascent profile obtained in the cloudy air. Initial results for the clear air case are that the pure inflection point mode is not possible and the pure thermal mode was oriented 35 degrees to the right of the mean wind direction. The origin of this unacceptably large discrepancy between the observed and modeled results will be investigated further and the conclusions reported at the next FIRE workshop.
NASA’s Dawn spacecraft entered orbit around the dwarf planet Ceres on March 6, 2015 thereby becoming the first mission to orbit two celestial bodies outside of the Earth-moon system. This feat was made possible due to the use of electric propulsion (EP) to provide the 11 km/s of delta-V that was necessary. This type of propulsion is also enabling for many of NASA’s future missions, such as the proposed Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission (ARRM). Specifically, the Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) is the propulsive design baseline due to its long operational lifetime and high specific impulse. Extensive modeling is required to verify the thruster's predicted thermal performance and survival during the bounding mission phases. Since the thruster would constrain plasma on the order of tens of thousands of hours, components in the thruster must be able to accommodate much higher sustained temperatures than typical spacecraft hardware. Furthermore, the high temperatures necessitate care in analyzing thermal gradients within the thruster. In this paper, we describe a thermal model of the HERMeS thruster and focus upon the thruster's transient performance under different initial firing conditions. The thruster's transient thermal response is critical to verify margin in the thermal stresses inherent in the thruster and to determine safe start-up procedures to protect the thruster's critical components. This model is used to perform transient thermal analysis of the thruster during startup and shutdown, provide temperature maps for structural analysis, and plan for thermal cycle testing conducted at JPL. The thermal cycle testing includes thruster starts at the cold temperature limits and operation at maximum expected external heat flux. This work will support laboratory environmental testing of the HERMeS thruster, which is being conducted at JPL in 2016.
The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ includes generic probabilities for equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of release and flame physics. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM+ is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.0. The most significant change for HyRAM+ version 4.0 from HyRAM version 3.1 is the incorporation of other alternative fuels, namely methane (as a proxy for natural gas) and propane into the toolkit. This change necessitated significant changes to the installable graphical user interface as well as changes to the back-end Python models. A second major change is the inclusion of physics models for the overpressure associated with the delayed ignition of an unconfined jet/plume of flammable gas.
Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.