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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

The Influence of Observation Errors on Analysis Error and Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework is used to explore the response of analysis error and forecast skill to observation quality. In an OSSE, synthetic observations may be created that have much smaller error than real observations, and precisely quantified error may be applied to these synthetic observations. Three experiments are performed in which synthetic observations with magnitudes of applied observation error that vary from zero to twice the estimated realistic error are ingested into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation for a one-month period representing July. The analysis increment and observation innovation are strongly impacted by observation error, with much larger variances for increased observation error. The analysis quality is degraded by increased observation error, but the change in root-mean-square error of the analysis state is small relative to the total analysis error. Surprisingly, in the 120 hour forecast increased observation error only yields a slight decline in forecast skill in the extratropics, and no discernable degradation of forecast skill in the tropics.

Observation Error↗
NASA NTRS2016

Image Navigation and Registration Performance Assessment Tool Set for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Flight Project has developed an Image Navigation and Registration (INR) Performance Assessment Tool Set (IPATS) for measuring Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) INR performance metrics in the post-launch period for performance evaluation and long term monitoring. For ABI, these metrics are the 3-sigma errors in navigation (NAV), channel-to-channel registration (CCR), frame-to-frame registration (FFR), swath-to-swath registration (SSR), and within frame registration (WIFR) for the Level 1B image products. For GLM, the single metric of interest is the 3-sigma error in the navigation of background images (GLM NAV) used by the system to navigate lightning strikes. 3-sigma errors are estimates of the 99.73rd percentile of the errors accumulated over a 24-hour data collection period. IPATS utilizes a modular algorithmic design to allow user selection of data processing sequences optimized for generation of each INR metric. This novel modular approach minimizes duplication of common processing elements, thereby maximizing code efficiency and speed. Fast processing is essential given the large number of sub-image registrations required to generate INR metrics for the many images produced over a 24-hour evaluation period. Another aspect of the IPATS design that vastly reduces execution time is the off-line propagation of Landsat based truth images to the fixed grid coordinates system for each of the three GOES-R satellite locations, operational East and West and initial checkout locations. This paper describes the algorithmic design and implementation of IPATS and provides preliminary test results.

Image Navigation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Image Navigation and Registration (INR) Performance Assessment Tool Set (IPATS) for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper

The GOES-R Flight Project has developed an Image Navigation and Registration (INR) Performance Assessment Tool Set (IPATS) for measuring Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) INR performance metrics in the post-launch period for performance evaluation and long term monitoring. For ABI, these metrics are the 3-sigma errors in navigation (NAV), channel-to-channel registration (CCR), frame-to-frame registration (FFR), swath-to-swath registration (SSR), and within frame registration (WIFR) for the Level 1B image products. For GLM, the single metric of interest is the 3-sigma error in the navigation of background images (GLM NAV) used by the system to navigate lightning strikes. 3-sigma errors are estimates of the 99.73rd percentile of the errors accumulated over a 24 hour data collection period. IPATS utilizes a modular algorithmic design to allow user selection of data processing sequences optimized for generation of each INR metric. This novel modular approach minimizes duplication of common processing elements, thereby maximizing code efficiency and speed. Fast processing is essential given the large number of sub-image registrations required to generate INR metrics for the many images produced over a 24 hour evaluation period. Another aspect of the IPATS design that vastly reduces execution time is the off-line propagation of Landsat based truth images to the fixed grid coordinates system for each of the three GOES-R satellite locations, operational East and West and initial checkout locations. This paper describes the algorithmic design and implementation of IPATS and provides preliminary test results.

Image Registration↗
NASA NTRS1981

Verification of land cover maps from LANDSAT data

The application of cluster sampling to verifying the accuracy of maps derived from digital data is discussed. Variants of the cluster sampling technique were used in large scale assessments for areas in excess of one million hectares. Three types of classification errors are possible: commission errors, omission errors, and overall error classification. Commission errors for a particular cover type occur when pixels are classified as that cover type but are found to be some other cover type when the field is checked. Omission errors occur when pixels of fields already visited and known to be of a particular cover type, are classified as some other cover type. Overall error is the proportion of pixels incorrectly classified, without regard to omission or commission. Since the classified image represents the sampling frame, sampling for accuracy assessment was designed to estimate commission error. However, the sample can also provide useful estimates of omission and overall error. Assessment for Alaska, Arizona, and Oklahoma are presented.

Linden, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

How Well Will MODIS Measure Top of Atmosphere Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing?

The new generation of satellite sensors such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) will be able to detect and characterize global aerosols with an unprecedented accuracy. The question remains whether this accuracy will be sufficient to narrow the uncertainties in our estimates of aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Satellite remote sensing detects aerosol optical thickness with the least amount of relative error when aerosol loading is high. Satellites are less effective when aerosol loading is low. We use the monthly mean results of two global aerosol transport models to simulate the spatial distribution of smoke aerosol in the Southern Hemisphere during the tropical biomass burning season. This spatial distribution allows us to determine that 87-94% of the smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere occurs in grid squares with sufficient signal to noise ratio to be detectable from space. The uncertainty of quantifying the smoke aerosol forcing in the Southern Hemisphere depends on the uncertainty introduced by errors in estimating the background aerosol, errors resulting from uncertainties in surface properties and errors resulting from uncertainties in assumptions of aerosol properties. These three errors combine to give overall uncertainties of 1.5 to 2.2 Wm-2 (21-56%) in determining the Southern Hemisphere smoke aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere. The range of values depend on which estimate of MODIS retrieval uncertainty is used, either the theoretical calculation (upper bound) or the empirical estimate (lower bound). Strategies that use the satellite data to derive flux directly or use the data in conjunction with ground-based remote sensing and aerosol transport models can reduce these uncertainties.

Remer, Lorraine A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Modal Correction Method For Dynamically Induced Errors In Wind-Tunnel Model Attitude Measurements

This paper describes a method for correcting the dynamically induced bias errors in wind tunnel model attitude measurements using measured modal properties of the model system. At NASA Langley Research Center, the predominant instrumentation used to measure model attitude is a servo-accelerometer device that senses the model attitude with respect to the local vertical. Under smooth wind tunnel operating conditions, this inertial device can measure the model attitude with an accuracy of 0.01 degree. During wind tunnel tests when the model is responding at high dynamic amplitudes, the inertial device also senses the centrifugal acceleration associated with model vibration. This centrifugal acceleration results in a bias error in the model attitude measurement. A study of the response of a cantilevered model system to a simulated dynamic environment shows significant bias error in the model attitude measurement can occur and is vibration mode and amplitude dependent. For each vibration mode contributing to the bias error, the error is estimated from the measured modal properties and tangential accelerations at the model attitude device. Linear superposition is used to combine the bias estimates for individual modes to determine the overall bias error as a function of time. The modal correction model predicts the bias error to a high degree of accuracy for the vibration modes characterized in the simulated dynamic environment.

Buehrle, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): VHF Source Retrieval Algorithm and Error Analyses

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results. However, for many source locations, the Curvature Matrix Theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of adjoint-based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for Forecast Sensitivity to Observation (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short-term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short-term forecast error is difficult due to the lack of a truly independent dataset for verification. In an Observing System Simulation Experiment framework, the Nature Run is able to provide a true and complete verification dataset and allows accurate evaluation of short term forecast errors. In this work, an OSSE developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to explore the impact of observational data on forecasts in the 6 to 48 hour range. An adjoint of the Global Earth Observing System model is employed to compare the observation impacts estimated using both self-analysis verification and the true Nature Run verification. Self-analysis verification is found to inflate the estimated forecast error growth during the early forecast period, resulting in overestimations of observation impacts, particularly in the 6-12 hour forecast range. By 48 hours, the self-analysis verification estimates of forecast error and observation impacts more closely match the true values. The fraction of beneficial observations is also overinflated at short forecast times when self-analysis verification is used. The progression of impacts of an individual observation or data type depends on the character of the growth of the initial condition error that each observation affects.

numerical weather prediction↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the Retrieval and Analysis of Multilevel Clouds

An accurate satellite retrieval of cloud properties depends upon the detection and analysis of multilayered, overlapping cloud systems that surface observations show to be common. Multiple cloud layers are often found, for instance, in frontal situations, where cirrus overlays boundary layer convective cloud or low-to mid-level stratus cloud. Surface observers (Hahan et al., 1982) indicate that over ocean in the Northern Hemisphere between 30 deg. N and 60 deg. N, 51 percent of observations are of multilevel clouds. A satellite analysis by Coakley (1983) over the Pacific Ocean finds that more than 50 percent of 500 (250 sq km) frames exhibit evidence of multilayered cloud systems. The questions addressed in this study are the following: What error is introduced when inferring the cloud pressure from a Field-Of-View (FOV) that contains some arbitrary amount of transparent cloud overlaying a lower-level black cloud, such as stratus, by making the assumption that there is only a single cloud layer in the FOV, and what may be done to improve the cloud retrieval? The CO2 slicing methods (e.g. McCleese and Wilson, 1976; Smith and Platt, 1978; Chahine, 1974) have been shown to provide accurate means of inferring cirrus cloud altitude from passive infrared radiance measurements. The CO2 techniques have been applied to radiometric data from several instruments, notably the High Resolution Infrared Radiometric Sounder (HIRS/2, hereafter referred to as HIRS), the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) (e.g., Menzel et al., 1983; Wylie and Menzel, 1989), and most recently to the High Resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) (Smith and Frey, 1990). The methods take advantage of the fact that infrared CO2 sounding channels spaced closely in wavenumber each have varying opacity to CO2, thereby causing each channel to be sensitive to a different level in the atmosphere. The techniques have been shown to be effective for single-layered, nonblack, mid- to high-level clouds such as cirrus, but are generally applied operationally to any given cloud occurrence. The CO2 slicing algorithms are most accurate for clouds than occur in a single, well-defined layer, or for multi-layered cloud cases in which the uppermost cloud layer is nearly black. Significant cloud height retrieval errors may ensue if the HIRS Field-Of-View (FOV) is cotaminated with low cloud. McCleese and Wilson (1976) have shown that the retrieved cloud height for the case of multiple cloud layers is a weighted average of the cloud heights actually present. The weight is approximately proportional to the product of the cloud heigt and the effective cloud amount. The effect of their result is that the uppermost cloud layer dominates the cloud pressure retrieval. Beyond stating that the higher cloud dominates the cloud pressure retrieval, there is no quantitative information to provide a way of estimating the errors in cloud pressure retrieval one should expect for certain common multilevel cloud situations or any suggestions on how to reduce the errors. In this paper we estimate the magnitude of the errors and use a simple algorithm to reduce the errors in optically thin cloud height retrival.

Baum, Bryan A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Error model for the SAO 1969 standard earth.

A method is developed for estimating an error model for geopotential coefficients using satellite tracking data. A single station's apparent timing error for each pass is attributed to geopotential errors. The root sum of the residuals for each station also depends on the geopotential errors, and these are used to select an error model. The model chosen is 1/4 of the difference between the SAO M1 and the APL 3.5 geopotential.

Martin, C. F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Results From F-18B Stability and Control Parameter Estimation Flight Tests at High Dynamic Pressures

A maximum-likelihood output-error parameter estimation technique has been used to obtain stability and control derivatives for the NASA F-18B Systems Research Aircraft. This work has been performed to support flight testing of the active aeroelastic wing (AAW) F-18A project. The goal of this research is to obtain baseline F-18 stability and control derivatives that will form the foundation of the aerodynamic model for the AAW aircraft configuration. Flight data have been obtained at Mach numbers between 0.85 and 1.30 and at dynamic pressures ranging between 600 and 1500 lbf/sq ft. At each test condition, longitudinal and lateral-directional doublets have been performed using an automated onboard excitation system. The doublet maneuver consists of a series of single-surface inputs so that individual control-surface motions cannot be correlated with other control-surface motions. Flight test results have shown that several stability and control derivatives are significantly different than prescribed by the F-18B aerodynamic model. This report defines the parameter estimation technique used, presents stability and control derivative results, compares the results with predictions based on the current F-18B aerodynamic model, and shows improvements to the nonlinear simulation using updated derivatives from this research.

Moes, Timothy R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Simulation study of a geometric shape factor technique for estimating earth-emitted radiant flux densities from wide-field-of-view radiation measurements

Geometric shape factors were computed and applied to satellite simulated irradiance measurements to estimate Earth emitted flux densities for global and zonal scales and for areas smaller than the detector field of view (FOV). Wide field of view flat plate detectors were emphasized, but spherical detectors were also studied. The radiation field was modeled after data from the Nimbus 2 and 3 satellites. At a satellite altitude of 600 km, zonal estimates were in error 1.0 to 1.2 percent and global estimates were in error less than 0.2 percent. Estimates with unrestricted field of view (UFOV) detectors were about the same for Lambertian and limb darkening radiation models. The opposite was found for restricted field of view detectors. The UFOV detectors are found to be poor estimators of flux density from the total FOV and are shown to be much better as estimators of flux density from a circle centered at the FOV with an area significantly smaller than that for the total FOV.

Weaver, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Correction of Sampling Errors in Ocean Surface Cross-Sectional Estimates from Nadir-Looking Weather Radar

The return from the ocean surface has a number of uses for airborne meteorological radar. The normalized surface cross section has been used for radar system calibration, estimation of surface winds, and in algorithms for estimating the path-integrated attenuation in rain. However, meteorological radars are normally optimized for observation of distributed targets that fill the resolution volume, and so a point target such as the surface can be poorly sampled, particularly at near-nadir look angles. Sampling the nadir surface return at an insufficient rate results in a negative bias of the estimated cross section. This error is found to be as large as 4 dB using observations from a high-altitude airborne radar. An algorithm for mitigating the error is developed that is based upon the shape of the surface echo and uses the returned signal at the three range gates nearest the peak surface echo.

Caylor, I. Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2003

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

EAC: A program for the error analysis of STAGS results for plates

A computer code is now available for estimating the error in results from the STAGS finite element code for a shell unit consisting of a rectangular orthotropic plate. This memorandum contains basic information about the computer code EAC (Error Analysis and Correction) and describes the connection between the input data for the STAGS shell units and the input data necessary to run the error analysis code. The STAGS code returns a set of nodal displacements and a discrete set of stress resultants; the EAC code returns a continuous solution for displacements and stress resultants. The continuous solution is defined by a set of generalized coordinates computed in EAC. The theory and the assumptions that determine the continuous solution are also outlined in this memorandum. An example of application of the code is presented and instructions on its usage on the Cyber and the VAX machines have been provided.

Sistla, Rajaram↗
NASA NTRS1972

Decision-directed adaptive recursive estimators - Divergence prevention.

A method is proposed for dealing with the divergence phenomenon problem encountered in applications of minimum-variance recursive estimators when the error covariance calculated by the estimator becomes inconsistent with the actual error covariance. The proposed method differs from previous ones in that the state model and statistics are accepted as given. The form of the optimal estimator is used, but a constant check is made on the consistency of the calculated and actual error covariances. The method is independent of the source of error, whether it be inaccuracies in the system model, incorrect values of the a priori and random process statistics, approximations required in the case of nonlinear systems, or computational roundoff. Several simulated examples, in which inconsistencies in the calculated and actual error covariances exist, show a significant improvement in the performance of the estimator when the given procedure is applied.

Nahi, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lightning Reporting at 45th Weather Squadron: Recent Improvements

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides daily lightning reports to space launch customers at CCAFS/KSC. These reports are provided to assess the need to inspect the electronics of satellite payloads, space launch vehicles, and ground support equipment for induced current damage from nearby lightning strokes. The 45 WS has made several improvements to the lightning reports during 2008-2009. The 4DLSS, implemented in April 2008, provides all lightning strokes as opposed to just one stroke per flash as done by the previous system. The 45 WS discovered that the peak current was being truncated to the nearest kilo amp in the database used to generate the daily lightning reports, which led to an up to 4% underestimate in the peak current for average lightning. This error was corrected and led to elimination of this underestimate. The 45 WS and their mission partners developed lightning location error ellipses for 99% and 95% location accuracies tailored to each individual stroke and began providing them in the spring of 2009. The new procedure provides the distance from the point of interest to the best location of the stroke (the center of the error ellipse) and the distance to the closest edge of the ellipse. This information is now included in the lightning reports, along with the peak current of the stroke. The initial method of calculating the error ellipses could only be used during normal duty hours, i.e. not during nights, weekends, or holidays. This method was improved later to provide lightning reports in near real-time, 24/7. The calculation of the distance to the closest point on the ellipse was also significantly improved later. Other improvements were also implemented. A new method to calculate the probability of any nearby lightning stroke. being within any radius of any point of interest was developed and is being implemented. This may supersede the use of location error ellipses. The 45 WS is pursuing adding data from nine NLDN sensors into 4DLSS in real-time. This will overcome the problem of 4DLSS missing some of the strong local strokes. This will also improve the location accuracy, reduce the size and eccentricity of the location error ellipses, and reduce the probability of nearby strokes being inside the areas of interest when few of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. This will not reduce 4DLSS performance when most of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. Finally, several possible future improvements were discussed, especially for improving the peak current estimate and the error estimate for peak current, and upgrading the 4DLSS. Some possible approaches for both of these goals were discussed.

Finn, Frank C.↗