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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Developing extreme fast charge battery protocols – A review spanning materials to systems

Extreme fast charging (XFC) has become a focal research point in the lithium-battery community over the last several years. As adoption of electric vehicles increases, fast charging has become a key driver in enhancing consumer recharge experience. Recently, the research community has made significant improvements in developing charge protocols to support XFC. New charge protocol designs derived using a combination of advanced, physically derived models, and electrochemical and secondary characterization methods, increase charge acceptance and decrease aging. By coordinating these methods and modifying protocols to account for different material constraints, including lithium plating and cathode particle degradation, novel charge protocols have increased the energy accepted during charging by over 25% in 10 min and increased the charge acceptance prior to a constant-voltage step by approximately 3x. Here, we review several charge-protocol advances, aging factors which are enhanced by XFC and advances which will enable adoption of XFC capable vehicles. These advances include implementing machine learning and other detection algorithms to reduce and classify lithium plating, which is known to significantly degrade cell performance and reduce cell life. The review concludes by discussing full-system fast charge requirements, including electric vehicle service equipment needs for implementing XFC protocols.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Central transcriptional regulator controls photosynthetic growth and carbon storage in response to high light

Carbon capture and biochemical storage are some of the primary drivers of photosynthetic yield and productivity. To elucidate the mechanisms governing carbon allocation, we designed a photosynthetic light response test system for genetic and metabolic carbon assimilation tracking, using microalgae as simplified plant models. The systems biology mapping of high light-responsive photophysiology and carbon utilization dynamics between two variants of the same Picochlorum celeri species, TG1 and TG2 elucidated metabolic bottlenecks and transport rates of intermediates using instationary 13 C-fluxomics. Simultaneous global gene expression dynamics showed 73% of the annotated genes responding within one hour, elucidating a singular, diel-responsive transcription factor, closely related to the CCA1/LHY clock genes in plants, with significantly altered expression in TG2. Transgenic P. celeri TG1 cells expressing the TG2 CCA1/LHY gene, showed 15% increase in growth rates and 25% increase in storage carbohydrate content, supporting a coordinating regulatory function for a single transcription factor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Structural insights into isoform-specific RAS-PI3Kα interactions and the role of RAS in PI3Kα activation

Abstract Mutations in RAS and PI3Kα are major drivers of human cancer. Their interaction plays a crucial role in activating PI3Kα and amplifying the PI3K-AKT-mTOR pathway. Disrupting RAS-PI3Kα interaction enhances survival in lung and skin cancer models and reduces tumor growth and angiogenesis, although the structural details of this interaction remain unclear. Here, we present structures of KRAS, RRAS2, and MRAS bound to the catalytic subunit (p110α) of PI3Kα, elucidating the interaction interfaces and local conformational changes upon complex formation. Structural and mutational analyses highlighted key residues in RAS and PI3Kα impacting binding affinity and revealed isoform-specific differences at the interaction interface in RAS and PI3K isoforms, providing a rationale for their differential affinities. Notably, in the RAS-p110α complex structures, RAS interaction with p110α is limited to the RAS-binding domain and does not involve the kinase domain. This study underscores the pivotal role of the RAS-PI3Kα interaction in PI3Kα activation and provides a blueprint for designing PI3Kα isoform-specific inhibitors to disrupt this interaction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Implications of the correlation between bulge-to-total baryonic mass ratio and the number of satellites for SAGA galaxies

We searched for correlations between the number of satellites and fundamental galactic properties for the Milky Way-like host galaxies in order to better understand their diverse satellite populations. We specifically aim to understand why galaxies that are very similar in stellar mass content, star formation rate, and local environment have very different numbers of satellites. Deep and extensive spectroscopic observations are needed to characterize the complete satellite luminosity function beyond the Local Group. One such endeavor is an ongoing Satellites of Galactic Analogs (SAGA) spectroscopic survey that has completed spectroscopic observations of 36 Milky Way-like galaxies within their virial radii down to the luminosity of Leo I dwarf galaxy. We correlated the number of satellites of SAGA galaxies with several fundamental properties of their hosts – including total specific angular momentum, which is considered to be well preserved throughout galaxy lifetime – in an attempt to identify the main driver of their diverse satellite populations. We aim to reveal some intrinsic galactic property decisive in making more or less satellites irrespective of baryonic mass or the environment in which galaxies reside. We modeled Spitzer Heritage Archive images of SAGA host galaxies at 3.6 and 4.5 microns with GALFIT code to obtain their stellar masses. We also searched the Extragalactic Database for information on their gas content and rotation velocities. Empirical correlations, like the baryonic Tully–Fisher relation and the stellar mass–size relation were used to exclude outliers. All the available galactic properties from the literature along with measured stellar masses were correlated with the number of satellites and no significant correlation was found. However, when we considered the “expected” number of satellites based on the correlation between the baryonic bulge-to-total ratio and the number of satellites confirmed for several nearby galaxies then strong correlations emerge between this number and (1) the mass of the bulge, and (2) the total specific angular momentum. The first correlation is positive, implying that galaxies with more massive bulges have more satellites, as already confirmed. Furthermore, the second correlation with the angular momentum is negative, meaning that, the smaller the angular momentum, the greater the number of expected satellites. This would imply that either satellites cannot form if galaxy angular momentum is too high, or that satellites form inside-out, so that angular momentum is being transferred to the outer parts of the galaxies. However, deeper spectroscopic observations are needed to confirm these findings, because they rely on the expected rather than detected number of satellites. There was a luminosity limit to the SAGA survey equivalent to the luminosity of Leo I dwarf satellite of the Milky Way galaxy (the SAGA limit). In particular, correlations found in this work are very susceptible to the total number of satellites of the NGC 4158 galaxy. This galaxy is predicted to have many more satellites than detected up to the SAGA limit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SYCL for Performance Portability: Application Experience with Coupled Cluster Formalism in Quantum Chemistry on Exascale Systems

The exascale computing has brought unprecedented heterogeneity in node architectures, with systems such as Frontier and Aurora featuring diverse GPU accelerators, network connectivity among others. Ensuring performance portability across these platforms is a key challenge. To address this, we employ the SYCL programming model to develop portable, high-performance quantum chemistry workloads. As a representative application, we focus on the non-iterative Triples component of the coupled-cluster CCSD(T) method, a key driver in quantum chemistry. In this work, we report on our experience deploying SYCL-based implementations using both DPC++ and AdaptiveCPP across two flagship exascale platforms: OLCF Frontier with AMD MI250X GPUs and ALCF Aurora with Intel GPUs. Our results demonstrate that SYCL enables efficient, single-source implementations that scale to thousands of nodes, delivering performance on par with vendor-optimized HIP solutions. We highlight key insights into runtime behavior, kernel portability, and scaling characteristics, showing that SYCL offers a viable path for performance-portable computing.

Bagusetty, Abhishek [Argonne National Laboratory (↗

The scientific case for concurrent neutron and X-ray scattering and spectroscopy

The interrogation of materials with X-rays or neutrons to determine structure, energetics, and dynamics is fundamental to advancing physical and chemical materials science and enabling innovative material technologies. A persistent challenge in materials development is that progress depends on understanding structure and dynamics across multiple length and time scales in increasingly complex, multicomponent systems featuring interfaces, heterogeneity, and hierarchical organization. Despite rapidly growing demands on materials characterization, current experimental approaches are almost exclusively based on isolated X-ray or neutron scattering and spectroscopy, reflecting a paradigm largely unchanged for decades. To assess the scientific need for a new experimental paradigm, a 3-day workshop sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) was held at the SpringHill Suites, San Jose, California, from June 2 to 4, 2022. The workshop brought together 70 national and international experts who critically evaluated opportunities enabled by concurrent neutron and X-ray (NeX) scattering, spectroscopy, and imaging experiments. The participants reached a clear consensus that establishing NeX capabilities is crucial for advancing the science of complex materials in the United States. This report illustrates the scientific drivers for NeX experiments through representative examples spanning biomaterials, energy materials, soft matter, nanomaterials, quantum materials, geoscience, and applied materials research. The complementarity of neutrons and X-rays is essential for robust model development and refinement, particularly in multiphase and multicomponent systems. While joint refinement of data from separate experiments is valuable, concurrent measurements uniquely eliminate uncertainties arising from sample evolution, environmental drift, and irreproducibility associated with experiments performed at different locations and times. Realizing NeX capabilities will require the development of new instrumentation, data analysis frameworks, and robust sample environments compatible with both neutron and X-ray probes. Addressing these challenges will enable unambiguous interpretation of complex materials behavior and open new frontiers in materials research.

X-ray↗

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of a Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for a Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production Process

Synthetic liquid fuels can provide a drop-in substitute for fossil-based fuels in sectors such as aviation and maritime, where electrification is not a viable option due to the need for high specific energy density. However, for these alternative fuels to be adopted at a commercial scale, their price must be competitive compared to their fossil-based counterparts. The reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction offers a promising pathway, using hydrogen (sourced from electrolysis) and carbon dioxide as the feed and reacting to produce syngas - a mixture of H2 and CO at a specific ratio. Syngas is a useful precursor that can be converted into fuels and chemicals via known downstream processes, such as liquid transportation fuels via Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The RWGS reaction is currently not applied in commercial scale, unlike the rest of the components in the process chain (electrolyzers and syngas-to-fuel synthesis units). The RWGS reaction poses several challenges due to its restrictive thermodynamics. Being an equimolar reaction, high temperatures and a large excess of H2 are needed to achieve reasonable CO2 conversion at equilibrium. This has detrimental effects on practical process implementation and the quality of syngas that can be produced, with direct effect on the energy and capital requirements, as well as the need for expensive downstream separation. In this work, we are proposing to develop a new concentrating solar thermal (CST) compatible RWGS reactor, performing the reaction in a 2-step chemical looping process using metal oxide at a temperature range of 600-800 degrees Celsius. By decoupling the reactor from the solar receiver, the Generation 3 (Gen3) CST technology could be utilized, together with its proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technology, benefitting from a good match to the required temperatures. CST technology is a viable option for supplying the heat that could be rapidly deployed in scale, thus being a good match to the gas-to-liquid (GTL) process which requires a large minimal scale to be commercially viable. The integration of TES with CST also allows operating the plant at large annual capacity factors and avoids multiple shutdown/startup cycles, thus fitting into the steady-state operation mode that most GTL processes require. The main innovation in the proposed design hinges on a countercurrent reaction design using a packed bed reactor. In 2019 Metcalfe et al. showed the benefits of countercurrent species exchange could be realized in a redox chemical-looping processes, by storing the favorable countercurrent chemical potential profiles in a packed bed of non-stoichiometric oxide. Metcalfe et al. applied this breakthrough concept to the WGS reaction, which is conventionally a co-feed catalytic process, showing a dramatic improvement. Bulfin et al. (2023) performed a similar proof-of-concept demonstration for the RWGS reaction using CeO2, achieving cumulative and peak CO2 conversions of 88% and 95%, respectively, compared to a thermodynamic limit of 58% for the co-feed catalytic process at the same conditions. In our new REGENLOOP project, we are developing a reactor prototype from the heat-exchange packed bed reactor-type, a commonly used reactor in the chemical industry. The endothermic heat of reduction will be supplied to the reactor using CST, while the same heat transfer fluid (HTF) mechanism will be used to extract the exothermic heat of oxidation. An array of multiple reactors is used to supply constant high-purity CO stream, that is then mixed with H2 from electrolysis to produce a high-purity syngas at the required composition. By removing the CO-CO2 separation after the RWGS process, significant energy and cost reduction can be achieved. A physics-based TEA framework is currently being developed, covering all the major plant processes, from the solar collection through storage, chemical looping RWGS, GTL, and auxiliary unit operations, up to the liquid hydrocarbon product. This modeling framework will utilize reduced-order models for the chemical looping RWGS and TES, CST modeling using SolarPILOT, and Aspen Plus for the GTL. By using this combined physics-based approach, the effects of design/operating parameters on the performance and cost can be elucidated. In our presentation, the modeling framework will be presented in detail, including preliminary cost predictions of using this plant configuration under a few selected relevant case studies. This study will be used to identify the major cost drivers, informing further system design and optimization needed to chart the way for a commercially viable pathway.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A microprocessor-based table lookup approach for magnetic bearing linearization

An approach for producing a linear transfer characteristic between force command and force output of a magnetic bearing actuator without flux biasing is presented. The approach is microprocessor based and uses a table lookup to generate drive signals for the magnetic bearing power driver. An experimental test setup used to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach is described, and test results are presented. The test setup contains bearing elements similar to those used in a laboratory model annular momentum control device.

Groom, N. J.↗

Recent Cycle Time Reduction at Langley Research Center

The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has been engaged in an effort to reduce wind tunnel test cycle time in support of Agency goals and to satisfy the wind tunnel testing needs of the commercial and military aerospace communities. LaRC has established the Wind Tunnel Enterprise (WTE), with goals of reducing wind tunnel test cycle time by an order of magnitude by 2002, and by two orders of magnitude by 2010. The WTE also plans to meet customer expectations for schedule integrity, as well as data accuracy and quality assurance. The WTE has made progress towards these goals over the last year with a focused effort on technological developments balanced by attention to process improvements. This paper presents a summary of several of the WTE activities over the last year that are related to test cycle time reductions at the Center. Reducing wind tunnel test cycle time, defined here as the time between the freezing of loft lines and delivery of test data, requires that the relationship between high productivity and data quality assurance be considered. The efforts have focused on all of the drivers for test cycle time reduction, including process centered improvements, facility upgrades, technological improvements to enhance facility readiness and productivity, as well as advanced measurement techniques. The application of internet tools and computer modeling of facilities to allow a virtual presence of the customer team is also presented.

Kegelman, Jerome T.↗

Efficient Automated Driving Strategies Leveraging Anticipation and Optimal Control

Automated vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems bring computation, sensing, and communication technologies that exceed human abilities in some ways. For example, automated vehicles may sense a panorama all at once, do not suffer from human impairments and distractions, and could wirelessly communicate precise data with neighboring vehicles. Prototype and commercial deployments have demonstrated the capability to relieve human operators of some driving tasks up to and including fully autonomous taxi rides in some areas. The ultimate impact of this technology’s large-scale market penetration on energy efficiency remains unclear, with potential negative factors like road use by empty vehicles competing with positive ones like automatic eco-driving. Fundamentally enabled by historic and look-ahead data, this dissertation addresses the use of automated driving and driver assistance to optimize vehicle motion for energy efficiency. Facets of this problem include car following, co-optimized acceleration and lane change planning, and collaborative multi-agent guidance. Optimal control, especially model predictive control, is used extensively to improve energy efficiency while maintaining safe and timely driving via constraints. Techniques including chance constraints and mixed integer programming help overcome uncertainty and non-convexity challenges. Extensions of these techniques to tractor trailers on sloping roads are provided by making use of linear parameter-varying models. To approach the wheel-input energy eco-driving problem over generally shaped sloping roads with the computational potential for closed-loop implementation, a linear programming formulation is constructed. Distributed and collaborative techniques that enable connected and automated vehicles to accommodate their neighbors in traffic are also explored and compared to centralized control. Using simulations and vehicle-in-the-loop car following experiments, the proposed algorithms are benchmarked against others that do not make use of look-ahead information.

Dollar, Robert Austin↗

Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand Segmentation, Drivers, and Management Through 2050

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been working closely with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity (OE) to understand the critical drivers and potential means of managing distribution transformer demand through 2050. This effort has consulted with utility representative organizations and transformer manufacturers to understand the problem, characterized the in-service assets, and modeled future demand. Distribution transformers, or service transformers, range from 10 to 5,000 kilovolt-amperes (kVA), have a high-side voltage of less than 34.5 kilovolts, and have step-down power delivery for customer end use. This research will help the manufacturing sector understand production requirements and better inform utility strategies for managing their demand.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Ozone Radiative Flux Bias from Satellites

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm-2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mWm-2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm-2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is –133±98 mWm-2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) meas↗

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An Extensible High Energy Density Modeling Tool for Extreme Regimes

The overreaching goal of the project is to develop a simulation capability to model an entire High Energy Density (HED) target heated by an X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) beam including the surrounding material with a focus on target material associated with subsequent shots. Our primary objective is to study target fratricide problems, where radiation/debris from the current shot degrade the target for subsequent shots. This work will have a large impact on research being conducted at HED facilities where the quality of data is directly related to the effective repetition rate of the driver, which is often limited by target fratricide problems. This project focuses on a stream of closely spaced droplet targets that are appropriate for new very high repetition rate sources such as the ~1 MHz LCLS-II upgraded XFEL. The capability of the PISALE (Pacific Island Structured-AMR with ALE) code is extended to model this class of problems. We summarize the capability and improvements made to the HED branch of the PISALE code. We discuss our simulations of target fratricide for small (5 micron) hydrogen droplets heated by an XFEL beam at SLAC. We also compare simulations of the initial dynamics of larger (50 micron) water droplets, heated by the same XFEL beam, with experimental data. We briefly discuss training, dissemination, and related activities associated with this project.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗