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Accelerated fission rate irradiation design, pre-irradiation characterization, and adaptation of conventional PIE methods for U-10Mo and U-17Mo

Metallic U alloys have high U density and thermal conductivity and thus have been explored since the beginning of nuclear power research. Alloys of U with modest amounts of Mo, such as U-10 wt % Mo (U-10Mo), are of particular interest because the γ-U crystal structure in this alloying addition shows prolonged stability in reactor service. Historically, radiation data on U-10Mo fuels were collected in Na fast reactors or lower temperature research reactor conditions, but little is known about irradiation behavior, particularly swelling and creep, at irradiation temperatures between 250 and 500°C. This work discusses the methodology and pre-irradiation characterization results from a U-Mo irradiation campaign performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. U-10Mo and U-17Mo samples irradiations are being completed at temperatures ranging from 250 to 500°C to three targeted fission densities between 2 × 10 20 and 1.5 × 10 21 fissions per cubic centimeter. Swelling measurement of the specimen sizes studied here required development and assessment of new methods for volume determination before and after irradiation. Laser profilometry and X-ray computation tomography (XCT) were used to provide preirradiation characterization of samples to determine the error and applicability of each to determine swelling following irradiation. These outcomes are contextualized through use of BISON simulations performed to assess the predicted expansion of U-Mo fuels subjected to the irradiation conditions of this work. Use of existing BISON fuel performance models predicted a maximum of 7% swelling under the irradiation conditions of this study. Pre-irradiation characterization revealed the as-cast U-Mo fuel samples were uniformly large-grained fully cubic U crystals with small U-C/N bearing precipitates and pores distributed throughout. Samples were found to contain a bulk porosity between .4 and 3% because of the casting process. Local porosity in areas far from large, interconnected pores was found by Slice-and-View to be under .2%. Nanometer-sized precipitates rich in C and N were identified in all samples, likely because of impurities during the fabrication process. Dendritic bands were also observed throughout the samples. These bands were characterized by variable Mo content that deviated from the overall Mo content by 2–3 wt %. No other microstructural features were correlated to these bands. Mechanical properties were found to be slightly strengthened compared to literature reports of bulk U-Mo fuels due to the nano-scale precipitates throughout the sample.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pressurizing Hagan and SAVY containers to 30-psig (air) to measure the release of analytical cerium oxide test powder

In response to an ESS surrounding the storage of sealed sources at TA-55, personnel from RP-SVS (Radiation Protection Services) and ORI-2 (Operational Readiness & Execution) were approached by ES-55 (Facility System Engineering) to provide technical testing of known nuclear material storage containers. Testing criteria were determined by SB-PF (Safety Basis for Plutonium Facilities). Tests were conducted in conjunction with multiple related projects at the Aerosol Sciences Laboratory (TA-03-0130-0103). An experimental system was quickly developed to deliver a pressure pulse (30-psig) that mimics a sealed source burst scenario. A series of twelve tests was conducted. Six tests were done with two different 5QT SAVY-4000 containers, where each SAVY filter-lid combination was subjected to three successive test insults. Three tests were done with a (0.375" diameter filter) 8Q.T Hagan container, and three tests with a (0.625" diameter filter) 8QT Hagan container. An unused, fresh container filter was used for each tested Hagan container, each receiving only one test insult per filter. Cerium oxide (CeO 2 ) powder was loaded (100 grams per test) into a nozzle in the tested Hagan and SAVY containers, and the nozzle was hard-plumbed to a ball valve and a pressure source. This system was installed into the Los Alamos RRFMC (Respirable Release Measurement Chamber), which is an integrated multipurpose aerosol wind tunnel that satisfies NQA-1 subpart 2.4 for R&D work. The ball valve was fitted with a mechanical linkage for operation from outside the wind tunnel. An aerodynamic particle sizer counted the particle concentrations and size distributions of released aerosol. Respirable aerosol released during the tests was measured and a correction factor for wind tunnel flowrate and internal duct deposition was applied.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Glaciers in California’s Sierra Nevada are likely disappearing for the first time in the Holocene

Mountain glaciers are sensitive climate indicators. Glaciers in the western United States are projected to disappear by 2100 CE, but whether they were previously absent in the current interglacial (past 11,700 years) remains debated. Here, we present evidence that two of the largest glaciers in California’s Sierra Nevada near Yosemite National Park persisted throughout the Holocene. Cosmogenic in situ carbon-14 and beryllium-10 exposure dating in newly exposed proglacial bedrock indicates continuous Holocene cover, likely by ice. At a nearby smaller glacier, bedrock exposure-burial ages suggest glacier expansion at ~7 thousand years ago, earlier than previously recognized. Moraine exposure ages at these sites and the Sierra Nevada’s largest glacier are distributed across the past several thousand years, suggesting that glaciers were near their preindustrial extent for much of the late Holocene. These findings imply that a glacier-free Sierra Nevada is unprecedented since before the Holocene. Future alpine glacial environments in California are thereby likely a no-analog scenario within the current interglacial.

Jones, Andrew G. [University of Wisconsin, Madison↗

Distribution of Natural Radionuclides at the Nevada National Security Site

According to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) publications, contributions of terrestrial gamma doses are mainly from the presence of 40 K, and of 238 U and 232 Th together with their progeny in various rocks and soils. A survey of soil distributions of radionuclides 40 K, 238 U, and 232 Th was performed at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) using in situ gamma-ray spectrometry with a high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The average activity concentrations of 40 K, 238 U, and 232 Th in natural soils at the NNSS are 867 Bq kg -1 (range from 150 ± 8 to 1297 ± 56 Bq kg -1 ), 50 Bq kg -1 (range from 29 ± 3 to 74 ± 8 Bq kg -1 ), and 56 Bq kg -1 (range from 11 ± 2 to 96 ± 10 Bq kg -1 ), respectively. The concentration at each location is significantly associated with its geological lithology. The terrestrial gamma dose rates around the NNSS were estimated from 26 to 144 nSv h -1 with mean value of 93 nSv h -1 . In conclusion, our results provide useful information about the natural background radiation and radiological effects of naturally occurring radionuclides at the NNSS.

environmental assessment↗

Existing Methods for Grid Strength Assessment and Role of Hydropower in Future Grids

The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), large loads, microgrids, and power electronic devices. Ensuring reliable and stable operation of the modern power grid is a multi-faceted challenge that requires detailed understanding of this complex system. Dynamic stability is a major concern in maintaining the security of power grids as the generation mixes and large loads transitions to include high shares of power electronic devices. The operation of IBRs in regions with low system strength and higher grid impedances has been found to be the main reason behind many of the power system instabilities that manifest themselves in various types of oscillations and interactions that, if not properly addressed and damped, can jeopardize the reliable operation of the power system. Weak grid conditions compound such stability problems, particularly when many IBRs operate in proximity to and connect to weak power grids. Therefore, it is important to assess grid strength for planning, integration and operation of IBRs for a given power system. In this report, we aim to understand and classify existing methodologies for grid strength assessment, along with their limitations and future needs. Further, we aim to utilize the huge untapped potential in utilizing hydro energy resources in addressing some of the pertinent challenges of grid strength and reliable operation of modern power systems. Hydropower, historically valued for its flexibility and dispatchability, now faces new constraints due to reduced share of synchronous machines in the generation mix and seasonal variability of available water resources. Yet, these same plants present untapped potential beyond energy generation - notably, as providers of critical grid services. This report explores how hydropower plants, particularly through operation as synchronous condensers, can play a pivotal role in strengthening the grid amid evolving system dynamics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data Analytics and Visualization of Energy Systems for Critical Infrastructure Insights

Modernization of energy systems including transportation facilities provides opportunities for increased efficiency, expansion of commerce and meeting industry and federal goals. A significant increase in electrical demand is projected to meet these needs, which concentrates at facilities such as airports. For example, Xcel Energy working with two airports in their service area recently published information projecting an up to fivefold increase in electricity demand in the next 25 years [1]. Concurrently, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently surveyed 30 commercial service airports identifying more than 300 outages of more than 5 minutes between 2015 and 2022 [2]. Power, reliability, and resilience planning becomes more important to safely maintain operations and the flow of commerce with fewer energy carriers providing necessary energy to safely move passengers and goods. NREL proposes to develop methodologies to allow owners, utilities, and federal agencies to dynamically analyze, forecast, and manage energy loads at airports, focused upon maintaining the flow of commerce in an efficient, sustainable, and resilient way. To address these energy challenges, a suite of technologies and methodologies can be leveraged to validate concepts, inform design, de-risk solutions and optimize energy management during deployment. These technologies include digitalization of energy systems, microgrid methodologies, and related energy technologies for building and vehicle loads. [1] Electrifying Airport Ecosystems - https://www.enterprisemobility.com/content/dam/enterpriseholdings/marketing/innovation-in-mobility/vehicle-innovation/airport-electrification-study-full-report-2024.pdf [2] Airport Infrastructure: Selected Airport's Efforts to Enhance Electrical Resilience https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105203.

critcal infrastructure↗

Integrating AI Data Centers with the Power Grid

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, with US data center energy use projected to double or triple 2023 levels by 2028. This exponential growth places strain on grid infrastructure, which can hinder timely construction of desired computing capacity. To bridge this supply-demand gap, utilities and AI developers are increasingly turning to demand flexibility, a strategy that incentivizes shifting or reducing power use during peak periods of grid stress. Data centers are uniquely equipped for flexible operations due to their digital workloads, built-in redundancy, and onsite energy assets. This article outlines four primary mechanisms to enable data center flexibility: computational load flexibility (shifting tasks temporally or geographically), flexible use of core facility infrastructure adjustments, energy storage utilization, and onsite electricity generation. To encourage adoption, utilities are deploying new tariff designs, including voluntary interruptible service riders, mandated flexibility requirements, and streamlined interconnection processes for flexible loads. For the highly capitalized and rapidly growing AI industry, the primary motivators for embracing these strategies are expediting facility interconnection, satisfying emerging regulatory mandates, and mitigating community resistance. While demand flexibility cannot substitute the long-term need for new bulk power generation, it serves as an essential, immediate solution for enabling near-term deployment. By transforming data centers from grid stressors into stabilizing assets, flexible operations can ensure reliable grid integration, ease market pressures, and support a resilient power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling-Based Design and Optimization of a Gradient Composite Transition Joint

An innovative additively manufactured gradient composite transition joint (AM-GCTJ) has been designed to join dissimilar metals, to address the pressing issue of premature failure observed in conventional dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) when subjected to increased cyclic operating conditions of fossil fuel power plants. The transition design, guided by computational modeling, developed a gradient composite material distribution, facilitating a smooth transition in material volume fraction and physical properties between different alloys. This innovative design seeks to alleviate structural challenges arising from distinct material properties, including high thermal stress and potential cracking issues resulting from the thermal expansion mismatch typically observed in conventional DMWs. In this study, we investigated the creep properties of transition joints comprising Grade 91 steel and 304 stainless steel through a combination of simulations and creep testing experiments. The implementation of a gradient composite design in the plate transition joint resulted in a significant enhancement of creep resistance when compared to the baseline conventional DMW. For instance, the creep rupture life of the transition joint was improved by > 400% in a wide range of temperature and stress testing conditions. Meanwhile, the failure location shifted to the base material of Grade 91 steel. Such enhancement can be primarily attributed to the strong mechanical constraint facilitated by the gradient composite design, which effectively reduced the stresses on the less creep-resistant alloy in the transition zone. Beyond examining plate joints, it is crucial to assess the deformation response of tubular transition joints under pressure loading and transient temperature conditions to substantiate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the design. The simulation results affirm that the tubular transition joint demonstrates superior resistance compared to its counterpart DMW when subjected to multiaxial stresses in tubular structures. In addition, optimization of the transition joint’s geometry dimensions has been conducted to diminish the accumulated deformation and enhance the service life. Lastly, the scalability and potential of the innovative transition joints for large-diameter pipe applications are addressed.

Zhang, Wei↗

Multicarrier Energy Systems: Shaping Our Energy Future

Multicarrier energy systems (MCESs) are characterized by strong coordination in operation and planning across multiple energy vectors and/or sectors to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy services to end users/customers with minimal impact on the environment. They have efficiency and flexibility benefits and are deployed in large and small scales on the supply and demand sides and at the network level but are more complex to control and manage. Here, MCESs are reviewed in the context of future low carbon energy systems based on electrification and very high variable renewable energy penetrations. Fully exploiting these systems requires some cost reductions, more sophisticated operations enabled by standardized communications and control capabilities detailed planning paradigms, and addressing their corresponding economic challenges. All these point toward the direction of analysis, markets, and technology research and development coupled with better policy and regulatory frameworks. One futuristic vision of a very low carbon energy system is proposed that illustrates potential pathways to an MCES-dominated energy future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Framework for Addressing Hydropower Modeling Gaps in Electric Grid Planning and Operational Studies [Slides]

Realistic representation of hydropower in power system planning and operation studies is extremely important as it helps in avoiding under/over-estimation of the services the hydro power units can provide. A framework and tools have been developed to account for hydrological conditions and modify power system models accordingly. For example, HyDat – data and AI driven platform, that provides that data required for editing the power system model files Collaborative effort with V&R Energy. Also, development of POM based tools have been performed, a) Tool1: editing .raw files with realistic current and maximum hydrogeneration and redispatch of other units, and b) Tool2: Editing .dyr files to represent water head, current and maximum generation. Finally the framework, HASP framework combines HyDat and V&R energy tools to produce modified power system model files. Key Take-away points from contingency analysis studies include a) the number of critical contingencies increases as the water levels are reduced (70%>75%>80%), and b) both the extent and the quality of dynamic response of the Hydropower unit is different with varying water head levels.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Blockchain Research and Development Activities Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy and Utility Sector

This article provides an in-depth analysis of blockchain research in the energy sector, focusing on projects funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and comparing them with industry-funded initiatives. A total of 110 funded activities within the U.S. power industry were successfully tracked and mapped into a newly developed categorization framework. This framework is designed to help research agencies to systematically understand their funded portfolio. Such characterization is expected to help them make effective investments, identify research gaps, measure impact, and advance technological progress to meet national goals. In line with this need, the proposed framework proposes a 2-D categorization matrix to systematically classify blockchain efforts within the energy sector.Under the proposed framework, the Energy System Domain serves as the primary classification dimension, categorizing use cases into 30 distinct applications. The second dimension, Blockchain Properties, captures the specific needs and functionalities provided by Blockchain technology. The aim was to capture blockchain’s applicability and functionality: where and why blockchain? Principles behind the selection of the viewpoint dimensions were carefully defined based on consensus obtained through the Blockchain for Optimized Security and Energy Management (BLOSEM) project. The mapped results show that activities within the Grid Automation, Coordination, and Control (31.8%), Marketplaces and Trading (25.5%), Foundational Blockchain Research (19.1%), and Supply Chain Management (17.3%) domains have been actively pursued to date. The three leading specific use case applications were identified as Transactive Energy Management for Marketplaces and Trading, Asset Management for Supply Chain Management, and Fundamental Blockchain for Foundational Blockchain Research. The Marketplaces and Trading and Retail Services Enablement domains stood out as being favored by industry by a factor greater than 2 (2.3 and 2.6, respectively), yet there seemed to be little to zero investment from DOE. Approximately 76% of the total projects prioritized Immutability, Identity Management, and Decentralization and/or Disintermediation compared to Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization, Automation, and Privacy and/or Anonymity. The greatest discrepancies between DOE and industry were in Asset Digitization and/or Tokenization and Automation. The industry efforts (36% in Asset Digitization/Tokenization and 22% in Automation) was 14 times and 2.4 times, respectively, more intensive than the DOE-sponsored efforts, indicating a significant discrepancy in industry versus government priorities. Overall, quantifying DOE-sponsored projects and industry activities through mapping provides clarity on portfolio investments and opportunities for future research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Feedback on the Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, OE-417

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) mandates requirements for reporting electric emergencies and disruptions in the United States. Specific electric power industry organizations (such as balancing authorities, reliability coordinators, some generating entities, and electric utilities) report this information through the OE-417 Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report via Form OE-417. Entities are required to submit Form OE-417 when at least one of the qualifying 26 criteria is met pursuant to Section 13(b) of the Federal Energy Administration Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-275). Entities are required to report, within 6 hours of the incident, loss of electric service to 50,000 customers or more for 1 hour or longer. The deadline for submitting Form OE-417 depends on the nature of the incident. An updated Form OE-417 Schedule 1 and all of Schedule 2 are both due within 72 hours of the incident to provide complete disruption information. Additionally, a Final Report must be filed within 72 hours of the incident, unless an interim update has been provided. If the incident meets specific criteria, the form must be filed within one hour, six hours, or by the later of 24 hours after the recognition of the incident or by the end of the next business day.1 The ability of DOE to respond quickly to energy emergencies that could affect the nation’s infrastructure and help alleviate or prevent further disruptions depends on the industry’s prompt and complete submission of information. This report summarizes current issues with Form OE-417 and the reporting process and presents recommendations for improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building Energy Codes and Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: How building energy codes can enable a more dynamic and energy-efficient built environment

This report considers the role of national model codes to promote grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) as part of the modernization of the U.S. electricity grid. It introduces GEBs, describes their ability to support a clean, resilient grid, and considers challenges and approaches for incorporating GEB measures into national model energy codes and standards. Desirable traits of GEB include being low energy, low peaking, and responsive to grid needs, and minimizing the curtailment of renewable energy resources. In addition, the future grid incurs a time and locational value on these types of building services. Accounting for these considerations in future code development requires a continuation and expansion of code-minimum energy efficiency requirements and inclusion of demand responsive and load flexibility measures while ensuring annual use and cost reductions. Also, efforts to include GEB measures in codes will be limited until they are fully developed into an American National Standards Institute (ANSI)-approved standard. Then it would be straightforward to address GEB measures through points or packages and/or scoring requirements. Otherwise, the building code would have to describe each specific grid responsive strategy. This document reviews topics pertinent to considering codes in this context. Specifically, the study presents the status and direction of current building energy codes, the future smart grid, low-energy buildings, and grid-integrated buildings. The report concludes with recommendations for future code development activities to support low-energy, grid-interactive buildings in order to provide added value to building owners, the grid, and society.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transactive Campus Energy Systems: An R&D Testbed for Renewables, Integration, Efficiency, and Grid Services (CRADA 356 / Amendment 1)

The Clean Energy and Transactive Campus (CETC) work described in this report was done as part of Amendment 1 to Campus Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) 356, the Transactive Campus CRADA with the Washington State Department of Commerce (Commerce) between the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Commerce through the Clean Energy Fund (CEF). The original project team consisted of PNNL, the University of Washington (UW) and Washington State University (WSU), to connect the PNNL, UW, and WSU campuses to construct and operate the testbed as both a regional flexibility resource and as a platform for research and development (R&D) for buildings/grid integration. Building on the foundational transactive system established by the Pacific Northwest Smart Grid Demonstration (PNWSGD), the purpose of the project was to construct the testbed as both a regional flexibility resource and as a platform for R&D on buildings/grid integration and information-based energy efficiency. The testbed supports the integration of renewables and other regional needs, using the flexibility provided by building loads, energy storage, and smart inverters for batteries and photovoltaic (PV) solar systems, at four physical scales: multiple campuses, campus, microgrid and building.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗