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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

US critical materials strategy: The importance of innovation in obtaining supply chain security

Critical raw materials (CRMs) and/or critical minerals and materials (CMMs) are metals, metal groups, and non-metallic minerals essential for the many modern technologies, including wind turbine, electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Different countries have slightly different metrics for determining criticality. However, broadly speaking, the European Union (EU) and United States (US)both define them as materials that reach or exceed thresholds for both economic importance and supply risk. Furthermore, both organizations have implemented instruments, such as the EU's 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act and the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Critical Minerals and Materials Strategy, to facilitate research and development of CRM/CMM ranging from mineral deposit development to geometallurgy to separations to advanced manufacturing. This talk is aimed at an EU audience to explain the DOE CMM strategy and how it compares to the steps taken by the EU to facilitate progress. Furthermore, this talk takes a geology-centric approach on the challenges geoscientists face and how their roles may change in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science

ABSTRACT Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science – a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline – the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. ‘non‐native’, ‘alien’, ‘invasive’ or ‘invader’, ‘exotic’, ‘non‐indigenous’, ‘naturalised’, ‘pest’) to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms ( i ) ‘non‐native’, denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, ( ii ) ‘established non‐native’, i.e. those non‐native species that have established self‐sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and ( iii ) ‘invasive non‐native’ – populations of established non‐native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising ‘spread’ for classifying invasiveness and ‘impact’ for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on ( i ) dispersal mechanism, ( ii ) species origin, ( iii ) population status, and ( iv ) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non‐native species.

Soto, Ismael↗
NASA NTRS1983

Internationally supported data acquisition for solar system exploration in the 1990's

Procedures that could be followed for cooperative agreements between countries with large ground station antennas to help provide mission telemetry support for increasing solar system exploration are outlined. It is noted that mission cost reductions, and thereby greater chances that missions will be approved, are offered by the opportunity to make planetary probes multinational efforts. The Canberra station is a suitable site for the Japanese Planet A Halley's comet intercept probe. The French have requested U.S. cooperation in developing VLBI stations in the L-band to receive signals from the Venus balloons and landers being sent as part of a joint French-Soviet mission to Venus and Halley's comet. The construction of the stations would extend the capabilities already present with NASA's deep space network, particularly for tracking the Voyager visits to Uranus and Neptune.

Reid, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Global Land Ice Measurements from Space

The NSIDC at the University of Colorado has successfully completed the tasks outlined in its proposal 0999.08.1216B, the 'Global Land Ice Measurements from Space' grant funded by NASA under NAG5-9722. The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) grant reported on here is one of the first completed elements of the overall GLIMS project that continues with separate funding from NASA, the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and internationally by many national agencies and universities. The primary goals of GLIMS are to survey significant numbers of the world's 160,000 glaciers with data collected by the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and reflection Radiometer) instrument aboard the EOS Terra spacecraft, and Landsat ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) and to make these data available to users in a common and easily usable format. GLIMS participants include: NSIDC as developer of the GLIMS database, USGS Flagstaff as the GLIMS Coordination Center, USGS EROS Data Center (EDC) as the archive for satellite imagery used in GLIMS analyses (NASA funding for GLIMS also includes the Flagstaff group and EDC through the related ASTER Science Team and Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center [LP DAAC] activities), and approximately twenty two Regional Centers (RCs). RCs are funded by the national agencies of participating countries to analyze satellite imagery for a specified set of glaciological parameters and provide the results to NSIDC for archive and distribution to the public.

Scharfen, Gregory R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Support for the 19th International Conference on Crystal Growth and Epitaxy

This project provided financial support for early career participants who attended the 19th International Conference on Crystal Growth and Epitaxy (ICCGE-19) which was held jointly with the 19th U.S. Biennial Workshop on Organometallic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (OMVPE-19) July 28-August 2, 2019 at the Keystone Conference Center, Keystone, Colorado USA. ICCGE-19/OMVPE-19 consisted of technical sessions for presentation and discussion of recent research and development activities in all aspects of crystal growth, epitaxy, characterization and applications including both general sessions and special topical symposia. Three specialized symposia were also held in conjunction with the meeting: the 4th Symposium on 2D Materials and other Low Dimensional Materials and Devices, the 2nd Symposium on Epitaxy of Complex Oxides, and the 2nd Symposium on Ferroelectric Crystals and Textured Ceramics. There were 639 attendees at the conference from 31 countries, including 50% from the U.S., 20% from Europe, 19% from Japan and 4.5% from China.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Storage Siting and Permitting Outreach Workshop Report

On March 24th, 2026, under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) staff hosted the Energy Storage Siting & Permitting Outreach Workshop at PNNL’s Grid Storage Launchpad (GSL) facility in Richland, Washington. The workshop convened a cohort of state and regional stakeholders from across the country to build a shared understanding of energy storage technologies, regulatory frameworks, and best practices for engaging in the permitting process. Participants left with a deeper understanding of energy storage technologies, grid uses and benefits, interconnection and regulatory processes, battery safety standards and risk management, and local engagement strategies and approaches. The workshop concluded with a guided tour of the GSL for hands-on exposure to energy storage research and development. The workshop had 17 external participants. The attendees represented a range of backgrounds, including state and local governments, nonprofits or other local organizations, project developers, and utility stakeholders.

Battery Energy Storage↗
DOE OSTI2020

Threat Reduction Research Networks: Fostering Sustainable Collaborations Through Trainings for Genomics for Biosurveillance

Scientific research communities can be represented as heterogeneous or multidimensional networks encompassing multiple types of entities and relationships. These networks might include researchers, institutions, meetings, and publications, connected by relationships like authorship, employment, and attendance. We describe a method for efficiently and flexibly capturing, storing, and extracting information from multidimensional scientific networks using a graph database. The database structure is based on an ontology that captures allowable types of entities and relationships. This allows us to construct a variety of projections of the underlying multidimensional graph through database queries to answer specific research questions. We demonstrate this process through a study of the U.S. Biological Threat Reduction Program (BTRP), which seeks to develop Threat Reduction Networks to build and strengthen a sustainable international community of biosecurity, biosafety, and biosurveillance experts to address shared biological threat reduction challenges. Networks like these create connectional intelligence among researchers and institutions around the world, and are central to the concept of cooperative threat reduction. Our analysis focuses on a series of seven BTRP genome sequencing training workshops, showing how they created a growing network of participants and countries over time, which is also reflected in coauthorship relationships among attendees. By capturing concept and relationship hierarchies, our ontology-based approach allows us to pose general or specific questions about networks within the same framework. This approach can be applied to other research communities or multidimensional social networks to capture, analyze, and visualize different types of interactions and how they change over time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Studying Turbulence Using Numerical Simulation Databases: Proceedings of the Summer Program - No. 7

The Seventh Summer Program of the Center for Turbulence Research took place in the four-week period, July 5 to July 31, 1998. This was the largest CTR Summer Program to date, involving thirty-six participants from the U. S. and nine other countries. Thirty-one Stanford and NASA-Ames staff members facilitated and contributed to most of the Summer projects. A new feature, and perhaps a preview of the future programs, was that many of the projects were executed on non-NASA computers. These included supercomputers located in Europe as well as those operated by the Departments of Defense and Energy in the United States. In addition, several simulation programs developed by the visiting participants at their home institutions were used. Another new feature was the prevalence of lap-top personal computers which were used by several participants to carry out some of the work that in the past were performed on desk-top workstations. We expect these trends to continue as computing power is enhanced and as more researchers (many of whom CTR alumni) use numerical simulations to study turbulent flows. CTR's main role continues to be in providing a forum for the study of turbulence for engineering analysis and in facilitating intellectual exchange among the leading researchers in the field. Once again the combustion group was the largest. Turbulent combustion has enjoyed remarkable progress in using simulations to address increasingly complex and practically more relevant questions. The combustion group's studies included such challenging topics as fuel evaporation, soot chemistry, and thermonuclear reactions. The latter study was one of three projects related to the Department of Energy's ASCI Program (www.llnl.gov/asci); the other two (rocket propulsion and fire safety) were carried out in the turbulence modeling group. The flow control and acoustics group demonstrated a successful application of the so-called evolution algorithms which actually led to a previously unknown forcing strategy for jets yielding increased spreading rate. A very efficient algorithm for flow in complex geometries with moving boundaries based on the immersed boundary forcing technique was tested with very encouraging results. Also a new strategy for the destruction of aircraft trailing vortices was introduced and tested. The Reynolds Averaged Modeling (RANS) group demonstrated that the elliptic relaxation concept for RANS calculations is also applicable to transonic flows with shocks; however, prediction of laminar/turbulent transition remains an important pacing item. A large fraction of the LES effort was devoted to the development and testing of a new algorithmic procedure (as opposed to phenomenological model) for subgrid scale modeling based on regularized de-filtering of the flow variables. This appears to be a very promising approach, and a significant effort is currently underway to assess its robustness in high Reynolds number flows and in conjunction with numerical methods for complex flows. As part of the Summer Program two review tutorials were given on Turbulent structures in hydrocarbon pool fires (Sheldon Tieszen), and Turbulent combustion modeling: from RANS to LES via DNS (Luc Vervisch); and two seminars entitled Assessment of turbulence models for engineering applications (Paul Durbin) and Subgrid-scale modeling for non-premixed, turbulent reacting flows (James Riley) were presented. A number of colleagues from universities, government agencies, and industry attended the final presentations of the participants on July 31 and participated in the discussions. There are twenty-six papers in this volume grouped in five areas. Each group is preceded with an overview by its coordinator.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transformative Impacts of Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy on Environmental and Biological Research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

This manuscript will present an advancement of transformative research that has been conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) over a 25-year period (2000–2025) on a variety of environmental and biological matrices. These investigations derived a fundamental understanding of how elemental detection and analysis of these matrices led to the knowledge and discovery of natural processes in plants and the environment. Each project led to the initiation of a new research area which unearthed awesome and novel breakthroughs. Highlights are listed below: 1. The preliminary research at ORNL centered on the detection of aerosols utilizing Laser-induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) technology. The Clean Air Act Amendment (CAAA) of 1990 highlighted the importance of identifying hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) due to their impact on environmental and human health, thereby underscoring the need to detect various toxic elements. Research in aerosol chemistry aimed to identify these harmful elements released by factories during periods of increased emissions in their manufacturing processes. LIBS emerged as the most effective method for real-time, in situ measurements of metal species in both gaseous and aerosol phases. 2. An understanding of the presence of total carbon in soils gives perspective on how to develop carbon sequestration strategies. The recognition that carbon sinks can evolve back to carbon sources to emit back to the atmosphere was an important consideration. Also, the concentration of carbon in soil indicates the health of land areas for growing crops successfully. 3. The direct detection of most of the elements in a wood sample in a single emission spectrum, without sample preparation, encouraged the research to use the LIBS technique for preservative treated wood coupled with use of multivariate statistical methodology. Additionally, it encouraged the researchers to try to differentiate natural woods from different parts of the country, and it was successfully demonstrated that LIBS coupled with MVA analysis could differentiate wood of different species from each other and of similar species grown in different environments based on their elemental spectra. This was a breakthrough since it revealed a systematic approach to connect elemental scarcity and abundance to either drought or typical rainfall conditions for the hardwood trees grown in specific areas. 4. Furthermore, the research progressed to reveal physiological and developmental processes contributing to biomass production such that the variation in leaf elemental composition increases our understanding of terrestrial nutrient cycles, as well as tracking the transfer of toxic elements from soils to living organisms. 5. Recently another breakthrough viz., ionomics initiated the correlation of elements to specific genes, uncovering the function that the element performed in the plant. More recently, this has been extended from plants to fungi as well as fungi growing in symbiotic relations with plants.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Model for Improved Mapping of Country-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Bathymetry

Accurate and up-to-date maps of coastal bathymetry are critical for a variety of sectors from vessel navigation to port construction and are increasingly vital to inform coastal infrastructure management amid accelerating sea-level rise and more frequent and severe storm-surge events. The primary challenges to accurate and efficient bathymetric mapping from optical remote sensing are: accurately modeling light attenuation in both the atmosphere and water column; and inefficient data processing pipelines for highresolution satellite imagery. To address the effects of light attenuation within the water-column we have developed a novel physics-based bathymetry model that accounts for variations in water-column inherent optical properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis in optically-shallow aquatic environments, which represents a major advancement. For applications to satellite imagery, we have developed a software package that automatically applies the robust 6S atmospheric correction algorithm, estimates the bottom depth from the physics-based bathymetry model, which corrects for attenuation by suspended particulate matter and colored dissolved organic matter in the water column on a pixel-by-pixel basis, and leverages highperformance computing for rapid application to region-scale (e.g., CONUS) 2-meter resolution imagery datasets. Our approach is tailored to sensors that collect data at two-meter resolution with high return times for frequent updates. We mapped 591 WorldView satellite images for Florida, North Carolina, and Alaska and validated the maps against LiDAR-derived bathymetry data. Results show median RMSE of 1.75, 1.59, and 2.67 meters, respectively. By combining the strengths of Oak Ridge National Laboratory in high-performance computing and remote-sensing science with the water-column modeling expertise of Scripps Institution of Oceanography we advance the state of bathymetric mapping capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demonstration of μCHP in Light Commercial Hot Water Applications

Internal combustion engine driven combined heat and power (CHP) systems produce power while the waste heat is recovered and used for another purpose. For µCHP systems (less than 50kWe output) overall efficiencies can reach over 90% for products currently on the market throughout the world. On a fuel basis this offers an advantage over using grid-based power and another fuel for heat. Additionally, the cost of natural gas on an energy unit basis is significantly less expensive than electric power. This difference can lead to substantial savings for the end user of a CHP system. In some parts of the world, particularly Germany and Japan, µCHP has become a common part of the heat and distributed generation equipment mix. Market analysis conducted in 2012 showed that in North America there is potential of a 5,300 units per year market for µCHP, resulting in an annual energy savings of approximately 13.5 TBtu and more than $84 million in annual customer savings. However, µCHP still has not seen much market penetration in North America. This study helps to identify some of the reasons why, address roadblocks that still need to be overcome and provide experience to established best practices. Nine commercial sites were initially identified (fitness club, surgical center, senior community, resort and spa, commercial laundry, two multi-family housing, restaurant and manufacturing facility). Systems from two different manufacturers were installed at five sites total, but due to unforeseen circumstances, only three of those sites were finally commissioned: test data were collected by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. While not all systems were installed as intended, the project resulted in the following key findings: Micro combined heat and power is an unfamiliar technology for building owners and plumbing and electrical contractors that serve the buildings most suited for µCHP. Manufacturers will need to be aggressive in providing training and providing broad support to successfully bring the technology to market.; The proper integration of µCHP into other building systems is the most critical part of a successful installation. Manufacturers will need to be able to provide the expertise to train, advise and support the mechanical contractors during the design and installation of the heat integration system.; Regulations governing µCHP varies across the country. There are a few UL standards (UL 2200 and UL 1741) that apply nationally. Emissions are governed by EPA except in California where the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has established their own standard. Requirements that dictate installation and interconnection are dependent on local building codes and local utility processes and requirements. Some out of date building codes do not offer clear guidance for these requirements, leading to confusion. This makes developing training and determining broadly applicable best practices difficult.; Installation costs of µCHP are a key factor in making an installation successful. It is critical that these costs and all national, state and local regulations be understood and accounted for by all parties involved in the installation before a project is undertaken.; A robust customer service organization is important to meet the needs of the customers. These systems require annual maintenance and service and local capability is needed to keep costs inline.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Aircraft Design Analysis

The helicopter pictured is the twin-turbine S-76, produced by Sikorsky Aircraft division of United Technologies, Stratford, Connecticut. It is the first transport helicopter ever dey n e d purely as a commercial vehicle rather than an adaptation of a military design. Being built in large numbers for customers in 16 countries, the S-76 is intended for offshore oil rig support, executive transportation and general utility service. The craft carries 12 passengers plus a crew of two and has a range of more than 450 miles-yet it weighs less than 10,000 pounds. Significant weight reduction was achieved by use of composite materials, which are generally lighter but stronger than conventional aircraft materials. NASA composite technology played a part in development of the S-76. Under contract with NASA's Langley Research Center, Sikorsky Aircraft designed and flight-tested a helicopter airframe of advanced composite materials.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Return to Innovative Engineering Design, Critical Thinking and Systems Engineering

I believe we are facing a critical time where innovative engineering design is of paramount importance to the success of our aerospace industry. However, the very qualities and attributes necessary for enhancing, educating, and mentoring a creative spirit are in decline in important areas. The importance of creativity and innovation in this country was emphasized by a special edition of the Harvard Business Review OnPoint entitled: "The Creative Company" which compiled a series of past and present articles on the subject of creativity and innovation and stressed its importance to our national economy. There is also a recognition of a lack of engineering, critical thinking and problem-solving skills in our education systems and a trend toward trying to enhance those skills by developing K-12 educational programs such as Project Lead the Way, "Science for All Americans", Benchmarks 2061 , etc. In addition, with respect to spacecraft development, we have a growing need for young to mid-level engineers with appropriate experience and skills in spacecraft design, development, analysis, testing, and systems engineering. As the Director of Engineering at NASA's Johnson Space Center, I realized that sustaining engineering support of an operational human spacecraft such as the Space Shuttle is decidedly different than engineering design and development skills necessary for designing a new spacecraft such as the Crew Exploration Vehicle of the Constellation Program. We learned a very important lesson post Columbia in that the Space Shuttle is truly an experimental and not an operational vehicle and the strict adherence to developed rules and processes and chains of command of an inherently bureaucratic organizational structure will not protect us from a host of known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns. There are no strict rules, processes, or procedures for understanding anomalous results of an experiment, anomalies with an experimental spacecraft like Shuttle, or in the conceptual design of a spacecraft. Engineering design is as much an art as it is a science. The critical thinking skills necessary to uncover lurking problems in an experimental design and creatively develop solutions are some of the same skills necessary to design a new spacecraft. Thus, I believe engineers unfamiliar with or removed from design and development need time to transition and develop the required skill set to be effective spacecraft designers. I believe the creative process necessary in design can be enhanced and even taught as early as grades K-12 and should continue to be nurtured and developed at the university level and beyond. I am going to present a strategy for developing learning teams to address complex multidisciplinary problems and to creatively develop solutions to those problems rapidly at minimal cost. I will frame a real problem, the development of on-orbit thermal protection system repair of the Space Shuttle, and step through the series of skills necessary to enhance the creative process. The case study I will illustrate is based on a real project, the R&D Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) Repair Team's development of on-orbit repair concepts for damaged Space Shuttle RCC nose cap and/or leading edges.

Camarda, Charles J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Costs of Knowledge

Acquiring knowledge-genuinely learning something new-requires the consent and commitment of the person you're trying to learn from. In contrast to information, which can usually be effectively transmitted in a document or diagram, knowledge comes from explaining, clarifying, questioning, and sometimes actually working together. Getting this kind of attention and commitment often involves some form of negotiation, since even the most generous person's time and energy are limited. Few experts sit around waiting to share their knowledge with strangers or casual acquaintances. In reasonably collaborative enterprises- I think NASA is one-this sort of negotiation isn't too onerous. People want to help each other and share what they know, so the "cost" of acquiring knowledge is relatively low. In many organizations (and many communities and countries), however, there are considerable costs associated with this activity, and many situations in which negotiations fail. The greatest knowledge cost is in and adopting knowledge to one's own use. Sometimes this means formally organizing what one learns in writing. Sometimes it means just taking time to reflect on someone else's thoughts and experiences-thinking about knowledge that is not exactly what you need but can lead you to develop ideas that will be useful. A long, discursive conversation, with all the back-and-forth that defines conversation, can be a mechanism of knowledge exchange. I have seen many participants at NASA APPEL Masters Forums talking, reflecting, and thinking-adapting what they are hearing to their own needs. Knowledge transfer is not a simple proposition. An enormous amount of information flows through the world every day, but knowledge is local, contextual, and "stickyn-that is, it takes real effort to move it from one place to another. There is no way around this. To really learn a subject, you have to work at it, you have to pay your "knowledge dues." So while, thanks to advances in technology, almost infinite amounts of information are instantly available, it still takes the same amount of time and work to learn French as it did in the year 1800-or to master physics or philosophy.

Prusak, Laurence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Impact of Compliance With Maneuvering Guidelines for Space Traffic Management

If the current estimate of proposed large constellations is realized, the near-Earth space environment will see more than 50,000 new satellites added to the catalog of resident space objects (RSOs) in the coming decade. This is an order of magnitude increase from the current population and poses new policy challenges as global operators seek to leverage the benefits these new satellite systems provide while also ensuring a sustainable approach to collision avoidance. Various guidelines have been proposed to date to support this effort, including the development of right of way rules to guide how a collision avoidance maneuver should be performed, and how the maneuver burden should be shared between the two satellites involved. However, it is very difficult to evaluate and compare proposed guidelines due to the complex nature of space traffic and the rapidly changing space environment. This study seeks to address this issue by utilizing the Virtual Environment for Space Traffic Analysis (VESTA), a high-fidelity simulation tool that has been developed at Georgia Tech over the past few years with the explicit purpose of evaluating the future of space traffic environment. Using this tool, a sensitivity study is performed that incorporates a likely set of future large constellations and provides metrics on the impact that a select set of proposed maneuvering guidelines would have on operators given realistic variations in spacecraft capabilities (e.g. maneuverability and propulsion capabilities), and other factors (owner-country, public vs. private, etc.). Specifically, this study compares three potential right of way rules: 1) a rule based on maneuverability proposed by the Space Safety Coalition, 2) a rule based on the geometry of the spacecraft rendezvous, and 3) a rule that equally distributes the maneuver burden between two operators, The results highlight general observations on the effectiveness and limitations of each of the proposed maneuvering guidelines. In addition to the choice of right of way rule, success of space traffic management will be significantly impacted by compliance – which operators, or how many operators, comply with the space traffic rules. The findings of this analysis have important implications for future methods that could be pursued to put in place right of way rules. For example, non-binding right of way rules may have variable levels of compliance that differ across actors. The impact of compliance by just one nation, or non-compliance by just one nation, help to demonstrate the impact of ensuring all major space actors coordinate on this effort. Overall, this analysis provides insight into the relative gains in safety (decrease in collision risk) that would likely result from more politically intense efforts to increase the number of countries implementing space traffic management rules.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2013

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at various scales, thereby increasing the capacity of national and regional institutions that lack drought early warning systems or complementing existing ones. A further goal is to improve coordination of information delivery for drought-related activities and relief efforts across the world. This is especially relevant for regions and nations with low capacity for drought early warning. To do this requires a global partnership that leverages the resources necessary and develops capabilities at the global level, such as global drought forecasting combined with early warning tools, global real-time monitoring, and harmonized methods to identify critical areas vulnerable to drought. Although the path to a fully functional GDEWS is challenging, multiple partners and organizations within the drought, forecasting, agricultural, and water-cycle communities are committed to working toward its success.

GDEWS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗