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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

An overview of wind-energy-production prediction bias, losses, and uncertainties

Abstract. The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the reported average energy prediction bias is declining. Herein, we present a literature review of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary of how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the article.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Contemporary Trends in the Acid-Base Status of the Two Acid-Sensitive Streams in Western Maryland

Recovery of streamwater acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) resulting from declines in regional acid deposition was examined using contemporary (1990-2005) data from two long-term monitoring stations located on the Appalachian Plateau in western Maryland, U.S. Two computational methods were used to estimate daily, monthly, and annual fluxes and discharge-weighted concentrations of ANC, sulfate, nitrate, and base cations over the period of record, and two statistical methods were used to evaluate long-term trends in fluxes and concentrations. The methods used to estimate concentrations, as well as the, statistical techniques, produced very similar results, underlining the robustness of the identified trends. We found clear evidence that streamwater sulfate concentrations have declined at an average rate of about 3 (microns)eq L(exp -1) yr(exp -1) at the two sites due to a 34% reduction in wet atmospheric sulfur deposition. Trends in nitrate concentrations appear to be related to other watershed factors, especially forest disturbance. The best evidence of recovery is based on a doubling of ANC (from 21 to 42 (microns)eq L(exp -1) at the more acid-sensitive site over the 16-year period. A slowing, or possible reversal, in the sulfate, nitrate, and SBC trends is evident in our data and may portend a decline in the rate of--or end to--further recovery.

Eshleman, Keith N.↗

Hot Rolling Scrap Reduction through Edge Cracking and Surface Defects Control

The design of future aircraft must address the combined demands for fuel efficiency, reduced emissions and lower operating costs. One contribution to these goals is weight savings through the development of new alloys and design techniques for airframe structures. This research contributes to the light-weighting through fabrication of monolithic components from advanced aluminum alloys by making a link between alloy processing history and in-service performance. Specifically, this research demonstrates the link between growing cracks with features of the alloy microstructure that follow from thermo-mechanical processing. This is achieved through a computer model of crack deviation. The model is validated against experimental data from production scale aluminum alloy plate, and demonstration of the effect of changes in processing history on crack growth is made. The model is cast in the open-source finite element code WARP3D, which is freely downloadable and well documented. This project provides benefit along several avenues. First, the technical contribution of the computer model offers the materials engineer a critical means of providing guidance both upstream, to process tuning to achieve optimal properties, and downstream, to enhance fault tolerance. Beyond the fuel savings and emissions reduction inherent in the light-weighting of aircraft structures, improved fault tolerance addresses demands for longer inspection intervals over baseline, and a lower life cycle cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA research on structures and materials for supersonic cruise aircraft

The technology and data base necessary for sound technical decisions regarding long haul supersonic cruise aircraft transportation systems are considered. The objectives and status of the research elements in the structures and materials program phase of the program are reviewed. Emphasis is placed on reductions in structural mass by research on advanced structural concepts, light-weight materials, improved loads, aeroelastic predictive techniques, and by development of efficient structural design procedures.

Cooper, P. A.↗

NASA/BLM APT, phase 2. Volume 2: Technology demonstration

Techniques described include: (1) steps in the preprocessing of LANDSAT data; (2) the training of a classifier; (3) maximum likelihood classification and precision; (4) geometric correction; (5) class description; (6) digitizing; (7) digital terrain data; (8) an overview of sample design; (9) allocation and selection of primary sample units; (10) interpretation of secondary sample units; (11) data collection ground plots; (12) data reductions; (13) analysis for productivity estimation and map verification; (14) cost analysis; and (150) LANDSAT digital products. The evaluation of the pre-inventory planning for P.J. is included.

Source record↗

Development of a microcomputer-based magnetic heading sensor

This paper explores the development of a flux-gate magnetic heading reference using a single-chip microcomputer to process heading information and to present it to the pilot in appropriate form. This instrument is intended to replace the conventional combination of mechanical compass and directional gyroscope currently in use in general aviation aircraft, at appreciable savings in cost and reduction in maintenance. Design of the sensing element, the signal processing electronics, and the computer algorithms which calculate the magnetic heading of the aircraft from the magnetometer data have been integrated in such a way as to minimize hardware requirements and simplify calibration procedures. Damping and deviation errors are avoided by the inherent design of the device, and a technique for compensating for northerly-turning-error is described.

Garner, H. D.↗

Spur-reduced digital sinusoid synthesis

This article presents and analyzes a technique for reducing the spurious signal content in digital sinusoid synthesis. Spurious-harmonic (spur) reduction is accomplished through dithering both amplitude and phase values prior to word-length reduction. The analytical approach developed for analog quantization is used to produce new bounds on spur performance in these dithered systems. Amplitude dithering allows output word-length reduction without introducing additional spurs. Effects of periodic dither similar to those produced by a pseudonoise (PN) generator are analyzed. This phase-dithering method provides a spur reduction of 6(M plus one) dB per phase bit when the dither consists of M uniform variates. While the spur reduction is at the expense of an increase in system noise, the noise power can be made white, making the power spectral density small. This technique permits the use of a smaller number of phase bits addressing sinusoid lookup tables, resulting in an exponential decrease in system complexity. Amplitude dithering allows the use of less complicated multipliers and narrower data paths in purely digital applications, as well as the use of coarse resolution, highly linear digital to analog converters (DAC's) to obtain spur performance limited by the DAC linearity rather than its resolution.

Flanagan, M. J.↗

Application of DPIV to Enhanced Mixing Heated Nozzle Flows

Digital Particle Imaging Velocimetry (DPIV) is a planar velocity measurement technique that continues to be applied to new and challenging engineering research facilities while significantly reducing facility test time. DPIV was used in the GRC Nozzle Acoustic Test Rig (NATR) to characterize the high temperature (560 C), high speed (is greater than 500 m/s) flow field properties of mixing enhanced jet engine nozzles. The instantaneous velocity maps obtained using DPIV were used to determine mean velocity, rms velocity and two-point correlation statistics to verify the true turbulence characteristics of the flow. These measurements will ultimately be used to properly validate aeroacoustic model predictions by verifying CFD input to these models. These turbulence measurements have previously not been possible in hot supersonic jets. Mapping the nozzle velocity field using point based techniques requires over 60 hours of test time, compared to less than 45 minutes using DPIV, yielding a significant reduction in testing time. A dual camera DPIV configuration was used to maximize the field of view and further minimize the testing time required to map the nozzle flow. The DPIV system field of view covered 127 by 267 mm. Data were acquired at 19 axial stations providing coverage of the flow from the nozzle exit to 2.37 in downstream. At each measurement station, 400 image frame pairs were acquired from each camera. The DPIV measurements of the mixing enhanced nozzle designs illustrate the changes in the flow field resulting in the reduced noise signature.

Wernet, Mark P.↗

Microstructure Segmentation With Deep Learning Encoders Pre-Trained on a Large Microscopy Dataset

This study examined the improvement of microscopy segmentation intersection over union accuracy by transfer learning from a large dataset of microscopy images called MicroNet. Many neural network encoder architectures were trained on over 100,000 labeled microscopy images from 54 material classes. These pre-trained encoders were then embedded into multiple segmentation architectures including UNet and DeepLabV3+ to evaluate segmentation performance on created benchmark microscopy datasets. Compared to ImageNet pre-training, models pre-trained on MicroNet generalized better to out-of-distribution micrographs taken under different imaging and sample conditions and were more accurate with less training data. When training with only a single Ni-superalloy image, pre-training on MicroNet produced a 72.2% reduction in relative intersection over union error. These results suggest that transfer learning from large in-domain datasets generate models with learned feature representations that are more useful for downstream tasks and will likely improve any microscopy image analysis technique that can leverage pre-trained encoders.

machine learning↗

External Magnetic Field Reduction Techniques for the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator

Linear alternators coupled to high efficiency Stirling engines are strong candidates for thermal-to-electric power conversion in space. However, the magnetic field emissions, both AC and DC, of these permanent magnet excited alternators can interfere with sensitive instrumentation onboard a spacecraft. Effective methods to mitigate the AC and DC electromagnetic interference (EMI) from solenoidal type linear alternators (like that used in the Advanced Stirling Convertor) have been developed for potential use in the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator. The methods developed avoid the complexity and extra mass inherent in data extraction from multiple sensors or the use of shielding. This paper discusses these methods, and also provides experimental data obtained during breadboard testing of both AC and DC external magnetic field devices.

Thermoelectric Power Generation↗

Applying EVM to Satellite on Ground and In-Orbit Testing - Better Data in Less Time

Using Error Vector Magnitude (EVM) in satellite integration and test allows rapid verification of the Bit Error Rate (BER) performance of a satellite link and is particularly well suited to measurement of low bit rate satellite links where it can result in a major reduction in test time (about 3 weeks per satellite for the Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite [GOES] satellites during ground test) and can provide diagnostic information. Empirical techniques developed to predict BER performance from EVM measurements and lessons learned about applying these techniques during GOES N, O, and P integration test and post launch testing, are discussed.

Peters, Robert↗

Emission line predictions for mock galaxy catalogues: a new differentiable and empirical mapping from DESI

ABSTRACT We present a simple, differentiable method for predicting emission line strengths from rest-frame optical continua using an empirically determined mapping. Extensive work has been done to develop mock galaxy catalogues that include robust predictions for galaxy photometry, but reliably predicting the strengths of emission lines has remained challenging. Our new mapping is a simple neural network implemented using the JAX Python automatic differentiation library. It is trained on Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Early Release data to predict the equivalent widths (EWs) of the eight brightest optical emission lines (including H α, H β, [O ii], and [O iii]) from a galaxy’s rest-frame optical continuum. The predicted EW distributions are consistent with the observed ones when noise is accounted for, and we find Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ρs > 0.87 between predictions and observations for most lines. Using a non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, we show that this is true for galaxies across the full range of observed spectral energy distributions. In addition, we find that adding measurement uncertainties to the predicted line strengths is essential for reproducing the distribution of observed line-ratios in the BPT diagram. Our trained network can easily be incorporated into a differentiable stellar population synthesis pipeline without hindering differentiability or scalability with GPUs. A synthetic catalogue generated with such a pipeline can be used to characterize and account for biases in the spectroscopic training sets used for training and calibration of photo-z’s, improving the modelling of systematic incompleteness for the Rubin Observatory LSST and other surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TH-AB-207A-12: CT Lung Cancer Screening and the Effects of Further Dose Reduction On CAD Performance

Purpose: CT lung screening is already performed at low doses. In this study, we investigated the effects of further dose reduction on a lung-nodule CAD detection algorithm. Methods: The original raw CT data and images from 348 patients were obtained from our local database of National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) cases. 61 patients (17.5%) had at least one nodule reported on the NLST reader forms. All scans were acquired with fixed mAs (25 for standard-sized patients, 40 for large patients) on a 64-slice scanner (Sensation 64, Siemens Healthcare). All images were reconstructed with 1-mm slice thickness, B50 kernel. Based on a previously-published technique, we added noise to the raw data to simulate reduced-dose versions of each case at 50% and 25% of the original NLST dose (i.e. approximately 1.0 and 0.5 mGy CTDIvol). For each case at each dose level, a CAD detection algorithm was run and nodules greater than 4 mm in diameter were reported. These CAD results were compared to “truth”, defined as the approximate nodule centroids from the NLST forms. Sensitivities and false-positive rates (FPR) were calculated for each dose level, with a sub-analysis by nodule LungRADS category. Results: For larger category 4 nodules, median sensitivities were 100% at all three dose levels, and mean sensitivity decreased with dose. For the more challenging category 2 and 3 nodules, the dose dependence was less obvious. Overall, mean subject-level sensitivity varied from 38.5% at 100% dose to 40.4% at 50% dose, a difference of only 1.9%. However, median FPR quadrupled from 1 per case at 100% dose to 4 per case at 25% dose. Conclusions: Dose reduction affected nodule detectability differently depending on the LungRADS category, and FPR was very sensitive at sub-screening levels. Care should be taken to adapt CAD for the very challenging noise characteristics of screening. Funding support: NIH U01 CA181156; Disclosures (McNitt-Gray): Institutional research agreement, Siemens Healthcare; Past recipient, research grant support, Siemens Healthcare; Consultant, Toshiba America Medical Systems; Consultant, Samsung Electronics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗

Long-term thermal aging behavior and strength reduction in a laser powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

The long-term thermal stability of structural alloys is essential for ensuring the safe and reliable operation of nuclear reactors and other power plants. While extensive research has explored the effects of thermal aging on conventional stainless steels, the behavior of additively manufactured (AM) alloys remains less understood. This study examines the thermal aging response of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316H stainless steel (SS) at temperatures ranging from 550 °C to 750 °C over durations of up to 10,000 h (approximately 1.14 years). Advanced characterization techniques, including electron microscopy and synchrotron X-ray diffraction, were used to investigate dislocation recovery and phase evolution. Based on these findings, a time-temperature-precipitation (TTP) diagram was developed for LPBF 316H SS, revealing a 10- to100-fold acceleration in precipitation kinetics compared to wrought 316H SS. A physics-informed model was calibrated using the short-term experimental data, enabling predictions of average precipitate sizes, volume fractions of M 23 C 6 and Laves phases, and changes in molybdenum solute concentration for aging up to 1 × 10⁶ h (114 years). These microstructural insights were further utilized to estimate yield strength and extrapolate strength reduction factors over the extended aging period. Despite the accelerated aging kinetics, LPBF 316H SS demonstrated superior yield strength retention compared to its wrought counterpart. In conclusion, this study establishes a framework for evaluating long-term performance using short-term experimental data and supports the accelerated qualification of AM materials for high-temperature structural applications.

Laser powder bed fusion↗

Coastal Ohio Wind Project for Reduced Barriers to Deployment of Offshore Wind Energy

The Coastal Ohio Wind Project was created to establish the viability of wind turbines on the coastal and offshore regions of Northern Ohio. The project’s main goal was to improve operational unit strategies used for environmental impact assessment of offshore turbines on lake wildlife by optimizing and fusing data from the multi-instrument surveillance system and providing an engineering analysis of potential design/operational alternatives for offshore wind turbines. The project also developed a general economic model for offshore WTG deployment to quantify potential revenue losses due to wind turbine shutdown related to ice and avian issues. In a previous phase of this project (Award Number: DE-FG36-06GO86096), we developed a surveillance system that was used to collect different parameters such as passage rates, flight paths, flight directions, and flight altitudes of nocturnal migrating species, movements of birds and bats, and bird calls for assessing patterns and peak passage rates during migration. To derive such parameters we used thermal IR imaging cameras, acoustic recorders, and marine radar Furuno (XANK250), which was coupled with a XIR3000B digitizing card from Russell Technologies and open source radR processing software. The integration yielded a development of different computational techniques and methods, which we further developed and optimized as a combined surveillance system. To accomplish this task we implemented marine radar calibration, optimization of processing parameters, and fusion of the multi-sensor data in order to make inferences about the potential avian targets. The main goal of the data fusion from the multi-sensor environment was aimed at reduction of uncertainties while providing acceptable confidence levels with detailed information about the migration patterns. Another component comprised of an assessment of wind resources in a near lake environment and an investigation of the effectiveness of ice coating materials to mitigate adverse effects of ice formation on wind turbine structures. Firstly, a Zephir LiDAR system was acquired and installed at Woodlands School in Huron, Ohio, which is located near Lake Erie. Wind resource data were obtained at ten measurement heights, 200m, 150m, 100m, 80m, 60m, 40m, 38m, 30m, 20m, and 10m. The Woodlands School’s wind turbine anemometer also measured the wind speed at the hub height. These data were collected for approximately one year. The hub anemometer data correlated well with the LiDAR wind speed measurements at the same height. The data also showed that on several days different power levels were recorded by the turbine at the same wind speed as indicated by the hub anemometer. The corresponding LiDAR data showed that this difference can be attributed to variability in the wind over the turbine rotor swept area, which the hub anemometer could not detect. The observation suggests that single point hub wind velocity measurements are inadequate to accurately estimate the power generated by a turbine at all times since the hub wind speed is not a good indicator of the wind speed over the turbine rotor swept area when winds are changing rapidly. To assess the effectiveness of ice coatings to mitigate the impact of ice on turbine structures, a closed-loop icing research tunnel (IRT) was designed and constructed. By controlling the temperature, air speed, water content and liquid droplet size, the tunnel enabled consistent and repeatable ice accretion under a variety of conditions with temperatures between approximately 0°C and -20°C and wind speeds up to 40 miles per hour in the tunnel’s test section. The tunnel’s cooling unit maintained the tunnel temperature within ±0.2°C. The coatings evaluated in the study were Boyd Coatings Research Company’s CRC6040R3, MicroPhase Coatings Inc.’s PhaseBreak TP, ESL and Flex coatings. Similar overall performance was observed in all coatings tested in that water droplets form on the test articles beginning at the stagnation region and spreading in the downstream direction in time. When comparing ice accumulation characteristics for the four coatings tested, for ice thickness during accumulation the CRC6040R3 had the least, followed by the ESL, Flex, and TP. However, when comparing the coatings’ ability to reduce ice adhesion, the Flex showed the highest adhesion reduction, followed by the ESL, TP and CRC 6040R3 coatings. The ice accumulated on the Flex coated surface shed under gravity when rotated 90 degrees following the tests while the other coatings required application of varying degrees of force to remove the ice. In conclusion, the ice coatings tested were not sufficient in preventing ice accumulation on all surfaces. However, Flex coating shows promise in mitigating ice on the rotor blades under the gravitational and centrifugal forces. Only the effect of gravity in shedding the ice was considered in this study. Further research will be needed to evaluate this coating on rotating blades in the icing tunnel to characterize its effectiveness. Lastly, the development of economic feasibility models used existing approaches adapted for offshore deployment in marine settings to one more suitable for Lake Erie deployment. Two different wind turbine models were tested and dynamic return on investment (ROI) model scenarios were generated. For the purpose of estimating power generation three bladed wind turbines of 3 MW capacity were selected including Model1- Leitwind LTW101-3.000-kW and Model2-Vostro V90-3.0 MW. The analysis were based on the revenue aspect of decision making of deploying wind turbines in the Ohio coastal region. The installation cost, maintenance and operational aspects were disregarded due to unavailability of data. The adjusted varying price (residential and industrial sector) and projected future price of electricity in different years suggested that the Leitwind model could generate $\$ $32.4 million of revenue in 25 years if the supply electricity is in the residential sector, while it would be $\$ $14.7million if the supply is in the industrial sector. For the Vostro model these figures are $\$ $28.6 million for residential sector and $\$ $12.9 million for industrial sector for 25 years.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dimensional analysis considerations in the engine rotor fragment containment/deflection problem

Dimensional analysis techniques are described and applied to the containment/deflection problem of bursting high-rpm rotating parts of turbojet engines. The use of dimensional analysis to select a feasible set of experiments and to determine the important parameters to be varied is presented. The determination of a containment coefficient based on the nondimensionalized parameters is developed for the reduction of experimental data and as an assist to designers of containment/deflection devices.

Leech, J. W.↗

Topographic mapping from interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations

The production of high-resolution topographic maps derived from interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations of the Earth is reported. Topographic maps are typically determined from stereo-pair optical photographs. Vertical relief causes the same terrain to appear in a slightly different projection for differing look angles, and this shift in appearance is interpreted in terms of the height of the terrain. The radar interferometric approach is related to the stereo technique in that the terrain is viewed at two different angles; however, in this case, the angular separation of the antennas is extremely small, on the order of a milliradian or less, as compared to tens of degrees for the optical case. Thus, the geometrical distortion and subsequent rectification correction algorithms are much less severe in the reduction of interferometric data.

Zebker, H. A.↗