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1,053 records · Page 59

Energy Optimization of Light and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Cohorts of Mixed Connectivity, Automation and Propulsion System Capabilities via Meshed V2V-V2I and Expanded Data Sharing (Final Scientific and Technical Report)

Vehicle connectivity and automated driving technologies individually have the potential to decrease energy consumption and/or increase safety on light, medium or heavy duty vehicles to varying degrees depending on the traffic infrastructure and specific driving scenarios. Due to advances in sensing, perception and computing power, research and development emphasis in the mobility sector has shifted away from connectivity. Prior research has shown that driving automation with the absence of connectivity can in certain circumstances increase energy consumption. The effectiveness of synergizing connectivity and driving automation technologies is the focus of this work, specifically applied to vehicle cohorts of mixed composition, light and heavy duty, and powertrains ranging from all electric to conventional internal combustion engine. The project team is led by Michigan Technological University (MTU) and partnered with AVL Mobility Technologies Inc. (AVL), Borg Warner (BW), Traffic Technology Services (TTS), American Center for Mobility (ACM) and Navistar (NAV). The main thrusts for the team are to develop a micro-traffic simulation environment with specific VD&PT system attributes and CAV capabilities, 2) field a vehicle test fleet of mixed classification, propulsion and CAV capacity, 3) develop artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based multi-agent optimization methods for various traffic infrastructures, 4) integrate the virtual environment and the optimization methods then deploy the system as a CAV hardware in the loop (HiL) for the vehicle test fleet and 5) conduct closed track and public road testing to validate simulation and demonstrated energy and mobility improvements at multiple scales. For a cohort of mixed vehicles, the team will demonstrate a reduction of energy consumption of 10-50% at intersection, arterial roadway and limited access highway scenarios through connectivity and automation in simulation and at a closed test track. The energy reduction objectives of the project are summarized in Table 1, indicating the infrastructure and over what distances are relevant considered. Single scenario energy reductions are not relevant and thus, the research team took the approach to vary parameters associated with the infrastructure, vehicle cohort composition and dynamic behavior to generate energy consumption distributions for both unconnected and connected scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Requirements and Recommendations for a Physical Attack Characterization Framework

This study seeks to identify existing frameworks or develop requirements and recommendations for a new framework that can consistently characterize physical attacks, analogous to MITRE ATT&CK®. MITRE ATT&CK is widely used across government, research organizations, and the cyber security community to characterize cyber attack tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in a consistent and commonly understood manner. While physical attack taxonomies, methodologies, and other tools for evaluating physical security do exist, many are sector and/or facility-type specific—and therefore not able to provide comparable scenarios across sectors—or are more focused on security assessment instead of the characterization of attacks themselves. A MITRE ATT&CK analog for physical attacks on critical infrastructure would provide a common language and structure for analysis of physical attacks. Existing attack characterization methodologies do not robustly address cyber-physical security risks. To fully understand a facility’s security needs, it is important to understand the entire vulnerability landscape from both a physical and a cyber perspective. To underscore this need, organizations such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are calling for a coordinated approach to cyber and physical security, which they refer to as cyber and physical security convergence. A physical attack characterization framework that could be used jointly with MITRE ATT&CK would help support a more robust analysis in support of convergence, enabling the consistent characterization of attacks that utilize both cyber and physical tactics and techniques. This could provide analysts and stakeholders with a clearer understanding of how security mitigations deployed in the physical realm impact security risks in the cyber realm, and vice versa. In this study, the project team evaluates existing physical security taxonomies and methodologies to assess whether an existing method can be used to create a “physical half” of MITRE ATT&CK. This study then provides requirements and recommendations for a framework that can leverage aspects of existing methodologies. The goal of the final framework is for it to be widely adopted and referenced, regardless of critical infrastructure sector, facility type, or facility components. This study also identifies applicable use cases for when and how a framework could be applied across the various critical infrastructure sectors for a variety of attack types or motivations. Through a literature review of existing security-focused methodologies and taxonomies, engagement with relative stakeholders, evaluation of potential physical attack framework use cases, and subsequent identification of requirements, this study identified the following key findings and recommendations: There is a need for a new physical attack characterization framework; A physical attack framework should be interoperable with the MITRE ATT&CK framework; A physical attack framework should be broadly applicable, but with detailed tactics, techniques, and procedures that encompass the entire attack path; A physical attack framework should be based on observed or feasible events; A physical attack framework should adapt features from existing methodologies, frameworks, and taxonomies; A physical attack framework should be owned, overseen, and maintained by one organization.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗

Peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operations of networked cyberphysical systems

This report includes two main accomplishments of the peer-to-peer communication control for resilient operation of networked microgrids project in FY24, which include a scheme for cyberattack-aware coordination of networked microgrids for supporting voltages of bulk power systems and a scheme for price signal-based operations of EV-rich networked microgrids with mixed ownership. First, the cyberattack-aware scheme enables networked microgrids to distributedly determine the amount of reactive power injection to support the voltage of bulk power system (BPS) in a fair manner. In this scheme, a risk-informed algorithm is presented to generate the peer-to- peer (P2P) communication graph with minimal risk of attack on communication links. To deal with cyberattacks on MG controllers, the resilient consensus algorithm (CA) is utilized for MG controllers to robustly estimate the total reactive power headroom, from which the MGs can accurately provide the needed amount of reactive power injection for supporting the voltage of BPS. The CA implementation and performance within the P2P communication framework are demonstrated on the IEEE 39-bus system with 6 microgrids contained in the distribution feeder under different cyberattack scenarios. Second, the price-based scheme enables the usage of the real-time price signal for the operations of electric vehicle (EV)-rich networked-microgrids with mixed ownership, in which not all the microgrids can communicate with the distribution system operator (DSO). In this scheme, a max consensus is introduced to enable the real-time price signal to be propagated from the DSO to all the microgrids, from which each microgrid controller will manage the DERs to balance the load demand and the power injection from the EV charging stations within its microgrid. Numerical results over one day with 288 slots of 5-minute intervals on the modified 123-node test feeder including 3 microgrids with high penetration of EV are presented to evaluate how the price signal affects the operations of networked microgrids under different charging strategies of the EV charging stations. The result indicates that our proposed EVCS (dis)charging strategy, which leverages the flexibility of EVs to support the grid through discharging during peak demand, proves to be a cost-effective solution that reduces operational costs while improving the social welfare of EV charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CyDER: A Cyber Physical Co-simulation Platform for Distributed Energy Resources in Smartgrids

The CyDER project aimed at developing an open-source, modular and scalable co-simulation platform for power grids with large shares of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs). The project partners are the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL), PG&E, SolarCity, and ChargePoint. The prime recipient is LBNL; SolarCity and ChargePoint were partners for the project’s first two years. Increased DER integration introduces a number of challenges in power grid operation including a more dynamic interaction between the transmission grid and distribution grids, and increased modeling complexity. Although specialized software exists to precisely model different components of the power system, it is far from trivial to integrate all various models and perform a holistic simulation. Instead of replicating all models in a common simulation program, a commonly accepted approach to tackle this model diversity is to couple third-party simulators and models through a co-simulation platform that coordinates information exchange among the various components. Following this line of research, this project’s objective was to develop a co-simulation platform based on a widely accepted industrial standard called Functional Mockup Interface (FMI). Within this process, the project developed models compliant with the FMI standard, called Functional Mockup Units (FMUs), and used them to perform various operational and planning power system analyses. Relying and building upon an industrial standard is the main differentiation of this project compared with previous or parallel efforts in the co-simulation area. Particular emphasis was put on delivering software utilities to facilitate setting up and running co-simulations by end-users. Furthermore, a strong aspect of this project is demonstrating that co-simulation techniques can be used to perform Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) simulations that couple software components (e.g., simulated models) with hardware components (e.g., real devices such PV systems and batteries). The long-term goal of CyDER project is to help establish FMI as a powerful standard for co-simulation and promote adoption by electric utilities and other interested stakeholders. The main accomplishments of the project include the development of several FMUs including distribution and transmission grid models, PV inverters with Volt/Var/Watt controllers, batteries, and predictive optimal controllers. Additionally, a unique software package was developed, called SimulatorToFMU, which is capable of exporting any Python-driven simulator or Python script as an FMU. This is an important contribution towards establishing FMI as one of the main co-simulation standards, because more and more third-party programs for sub-system modeling and simulation are delivered with Python APIs. The CyDER platform was used to perform PV hosting capacity analyses in real utility feeders with and without smart inverter controls, battery storage, and EV charging. Smart inverter controls include conventional Volt/Var/Watt controls for reactive power support and active power curtailment, but also predictive controls that optimize the charging and discharging profile of the battery connected on the DC side in order to minimize the customer’s economic benefit. Finally, an important result of this project is delivering an experimental setup that consists of residential-scale PV inverters with battery storage, a real-time grid simulator with an ideal voltage source as grid emulator, and micro Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). All these components and additional software modules are coupled to one another using the FMI standard and can be co-simulated with the CyDER platform.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multiscale simulation of integrated energy system and electricity market interactions

Accelerating the deep decarbonization of the world's electric grids requires the coordination of complex energy systems and infrastructures across timescales from seconds to decades. Here, we present a new multiscale simulation framework that integrates process- and grid-centric modeling paradigms to better design, operate, and control integrated energy systems (IESs), which combine multiple technologies, in wholesale energy markets. Traditionally, IESs are analyzed with a process-centric paradigm such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) or annualized net revenue, ignoring important interactions with electricity markets. This framework explicitly models the complex interactions between an IES's bidding, scheduling, and control decisions and the energy market's clearing and settlement processes, while incorporating operational uncertainties. Through two case studies, we show the importance of understanding and quantifying complex resource-grid interactions. In case study 1, we demonstrate that optimized bidding from one resource shifts the profit distribution for all energy systems in the market. This result suggests new and more flexible IES technologies can disrupt the economics of all market participants, possibly leading to accelerated retirements of less flexible resources. Interestingly, the optimized bidding has little impact on grid-level aggregate statistics, such as total generation costs and renewable penetration rate. While aggregate modeling strategies may remain valid under some IES adoption scenarios for analysis focused on regional outcomes, direct comparisons of IES technologies at specific locations without considering these interactions may lead to misleading or incorrect conclusions. In case study 2, we consider the design and flexible operation of IESs that hybridize conventional generators with energy storage. Through a sensitivity analysis, we find that as the size of the storage system increases, the total number of start-ups for coal- and natural gas-based IESs reduced by 25% and 33.6%, and the total thermal generator ramping (i.e., mileage) reduced by 86.5% and 62.5%, respectively. This shows the primary benefit of storage may not be reduced operational costs (which do not change significantly) but fewer start-ups and less ramping, which may greatly simplify the design, operation, and control of carbon capture systems. The new modeling and optimization capabilities from this work enable the coupling of rigorous, dynamic process models with grid-level production cost models to quantitatively identify the nuanced interdependencies across these vast timescales that must be addressed to realize clean, safe, and secure energy production. Moreover, the proposed general multiscale simulation framework is applicable to all IES technologies and can be easily extended to consider other energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen, ammonia) and energy infrastructures (e.g., natural gas pipelines).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

Background: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. Objectives: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different endpoints: LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labelling hazard categories, very toxic chemicals (LD50 =50 mg/kg), and non-toxic chemicals (LD50 >2000 mg/kg). Methods: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. Results: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared to in vivo results. Discussion: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for over 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the NTP’s Integrated Chemical Environment. The models are also implemented in a free, standalone open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Quantum Science Concepts in Enhancing Sensing and Imaging Technologies: Applications for Biology: Proceedings of a Workshop

Quantum concepts hold the potential to enable significant advances in sensing and imaging technologies that could be vital to the study of biological systems. The workshop Quantum Science Concepts in Enhancing Sensing and Imaging Technologies: Applications for Biology, held online March 8–10, 2021, was organized to examine the research and development needs to advance biological applications of quantum technology. Hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the event brought together experts working on state-of-the-art, quantum-enabled technologies and scientists who are interested in applying these technologies to biological systems. Through talks, panels, and discussions, the workshop facilitated a better understanding of the current and future biological applications of quantum-enabled technologies in fields such as microbiology, molecular biology, cell biology, plant science, mycology, and many others. The workshop was organized around three main themes. The first, quantum in biology, examined quantum concepts that are hypothesized to be important for life processes and that researchers are working to observe through biological imaging and sensing. The second, quantum for biology, addressed ways to use quantum concepts to enhance technologies for biological imaging and sensing. The third, biology for quantum, offered a wider discussion of how the frontiers of biological imaging and sensing could enable future study using quantum concepts, tools, or technologies. Throughout the workshop, participants identified a wide range of emerging approaches and opportunities at the intersection of quantum physics and biological sensing and imaging. During the workshop, there were some differences in how each speaker defined the term quantum. During one of the panels, Prem Kumar offered thoughts on what phenomena are classical versus quantum, explaining that techniques get progressively more quantum as you move from just having superposition to having superposition with measurement and entanglement. Another explanation from Clarice Aiello delineates the definition into several levels. This includes a base level of “quantum-ness,” which reflects that all matter is made of atoms, and when these particles are isolated they behave based on quantum mechanical principles. A second level is related to quantum coherence, where a single quantum object might be found in a coherent superposition state. A final level, which she described as the quantum-entangled level, involves multiple quantum systems which are entangled among themselves. Overall, the workshop touched on concepts such as superposition, entanglement, and squeezing and their potential implications for communication, computing, and simulation, in addition to the workshop’s main focal area, biological sensing and imaging. At the opening of the workshop, Thorsten Ritz of the University of California, Irvine, identified two questions at the heart of quantum biology: Is the machinery of life quantum mechanical, and can quantum mechanics be used to study the machinery of life in new ways? Participants highlighted systems in which researchers have explored these questions, from the vast array of molecular interactions involved in biological processes such as photosynthesis, to the mechanics involved in cellular functions such as differentiation and aggregation, to the role of oscillating magnetic fields in flight orientation among birds. Sensing and imaging technologies are crucial to biological research; these technologies could both enhance the study of quantum effects and be enhanced by quantum concepts. A critical challenge in biological research is to develop imaging and sensing tools that do not damage or interfere with the often fragile and fleeting systems being studied. Attendees discussed a variety of established and emerging technologies that could enhance noninvasive biological imaging, including single- and two-photon spectroscopy, single-molecule spectroscopy, quantum illumination, ghost imaging, and cryo-electron microscopy. One example came from Marlan Scully who gave a keynote address on the first day of the workshop. Scully emphasized the use of different laser technologies, which exhibit coherence and other quantum properties, in moving toward real-world biological applications, such as the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Both tools and theory will play an important role in advancing quantum biology research and applications. Several participants suggested theorists and experimentalists should work in tandem to understand and model biological processes. While physics often reduces systems to their simplest forms for fundamental insights, participants also noted the value of observing and understanding biological systems in all their “messiness,” capturing both the inner workings of biological systems and the complex interactions that occur within and between organisms. In discussions among participants, several attendees stressed the need to match emerging tools with the right scientific questions. Rather than developing quantum technologies as “a hammer looking for a nail,” participants emphasized a focus on exploring the problems these technologies are best suited to address. For example, it is important to consider the size of the phenomenon being studied, the timescales that are important in answering the scientific question, and other relevant considerations. Every tool along the spectrum from classical to quantum involves its own set of trade-offs. For example, Ted Laurence of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory said that quantum measurements, such as single photon counting, fluorescence transitions, and lasers, can take longer to produce the same results as classical measurements. These quantum measurements, however, do not require calibration and can enable new research questions to be answered. Prem Kumar, Northwestern University, noted that, despite their promise, quantum approaches should not be used simply for the sake of using quantum, especially in situations where classical approaches better meet the needs of the researcher. Understanding and applying quantum concepts could enable advances in a wide range of application areas including energy, synthetic biology, medicine, and sustainability. For example, Michelle O’Malley, University of California, Santa Barbara, described how improved noninvasive imaging approaches could help capture the complex interactions and functions involved in the breakdown of organic matter by microbial communities and lead to new technologies for capturing valuable products from plant waste. Several other participants discussed needs in tracking the movement of metabolites and molecules in microbial communities for insights into nutrient cycling in environments such as soil. Margaret Ahmad, Sorbonne University, discussed potential opportunities to leverage the magnetic properties of cryptochromes to advance new treatment approaches for diseases such as COVID-19 and cancer. Looking toward the future development of the field, participants discussed challenges to advancing quantum biology that arise from disciplinary disconnects between physicists and biologists. The siloing of academic research disciplines represents a significant barrier to progress. Disconnects in terminology, motivations and priorities, and structural barriers to collaborative work underscore the need for concerted efforts to bridge these divides. Attendees and speakers offered suggestions for resolving these divergences, establishing a shared language, moving the field forward, and fostering meaningful feedback between disciplines. Overall, participants stressed a need for balance, open communication, collaboration, unity, and clear dialogue on trade-offs between quantum and classical approaches. Keiko Torii, The University of Texas at Austin, said that the best collaborations happen when the project provides mutual advantages that can show off everyone’s talents, each team finds the work interesting, and partners develop a camaraderie to pursue new knowledge. To enable near- and long-term opportunities in this space, participants suggested that exploratory, high-risk funding could improve existing instrumentation to explore quantum enhancement collaboratively. They also emphasized the need for collaboration between quantum physicists and sensing/imaging scientists, which could be advanced through a dedicated quantum biology investigator program. People, even more than technology, will be crucial to the future of quantum biology. Participants explored training, education, and workforce needs to further develop this burgeoning field and cultivate the next generation of scientists. While many programs are still in their nascent stages, participants highlighted examples of approaches and programs being developed at various types of institutions to engage students and professional scientists in quantum biology research. Several participants stressed the need for an inclusive approach, spanning disciplines as well as communities to foster a diverse field fueled by the intellectual contributions of a wide range of people, including historically under-resourced schools and students. To increase awareness and excitement about quantum physics and related areas of biology, attendees suggested capitalizing on the “buzz” around quantum. Several participants emphasized the need to start early, introducing students to quantum concepts and their appealing “weirdness” in K–12 education. Engaging students early—before they become entrenched in traditional disciplinary siloes as typically happens in graduate school—could help to galvanize interest in the area and foster a generation of scientists with the interdisciplinary mindset and skills needed to advance this interdisciplinary field. While these efforts could be advanced at many levels and across multiple sectors, several participants suggested a national quantum biology center could be a valuable hub to coordinate and support quantum biology education and workforce development across academia, industry, and government.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗