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The historical development of the rules for structural strength of aircraft in the leading countries is traced from the beginning of flight to date. The term "factor of safety" is critically analyzed; its replacement by probability considerations has been considered desirable.
Abstract The utility of discriminative supervised learning models built using multiple training-data sources is investigated for hidden crack localization in concrete. Feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is chosen as the model architecture, and transfer learning is used to assimilate the information obtained from different sources (computational physics simulations and laboratory experiments). The labeled training data consists of values of a damage index and the known locations of hidden cracks. The classification models need to learn how the presence of damage (hidden cracks) affects the damage index at different sensors for different test conditions. To this end, diagnostic FFNN models are built by sequentially adding and training new hidden layers to assimilate labeled information from computer models (different model geometries, test conditions, crack lengths, crack locations) and laboratory experiments on a plain cement slab. These transfer learning-based models are then used to localize damage in concrete specimens that reflect real-world conditions (i.e., specimens with steel reinforcement and randomly distributed aggregate). The actual damage state in these specimens is determined by extracting cores and performing petrographic studies on the extracted cores. The damage probability estimated by transfer learning-based models is compared with the petrographic damage rating index (DRI) to identify the most suitable approach to train the diagnostic models. The transfer learning-based diagnostic methodology shows promise and could be used in various structural health monitoring applications, where sufficient labeled data are typically not available from a single data source.
The Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay model, HF3D, calculates the statistical decay of fission fragments through both prompt and delayed neutron and γ-ray emissions in a deterministic manner. While previously limited to the calculation of only first-chance fission, the model has recently been extended to include multi-chance fission, up to neutron incident energies of 20 MeV. The deterministic decay takes as input prescission quantities–fission probabilities, pre-fission neutron energies, and the average energy causing fission– and post-scission quantities–yields in mass, charge, total kinetic energy, spin, and parity. From those fission fragment initial conditions, the full decay is followed through both prompt and delayed particle emissions. The evaporation of the prompt neutrons and γ rays is calculated through the Hauser-Feshbach statistical theory, taking into account the competition between neutron and γ-ray emission, conserving energy, spin, and parity. The delayed emission is taken into account using time-independent calculation using decay data. This whole formulation allows for the calculation of prompt neutron and γ-ray properties, such as multiplicities and energy distributions, both independent and cumulative fission yields, and delayed neutron observables, in a consistent framework. Here, we describe the implementation of multi-chance fission into the HF 3 D model, and show an example of prompt and delayed quantities beyond first-chance fission, using the example of neutron-induced fission on 239 Pu. This expansion represents significant progress in consistently modeling the emission of prompt and delayed particles from fissile systems.
Questions regarding the combination of amino acids and ribonucleotides to polypeptides and polynucleotides are investigated. Each of the reactions considered occurs in the solid state in plausible prebiotic conditions. Together they provide the basis for a unified scheme of amino acid and nucleotide activation. Urea, imidazole and Mg(++) are essential catalytic components of the reaction mixtures. However, these compounds could probably be replaced by other organic molecules.
The battery is designed with a minimum battery to cell weight ratio consistent with adequate containment for operating conditions and dynamic environments and minimized weight. The battery is fully qualified and the environments to which it was successfully subjected were selected by NASA Goddard to cover a wide range of probable uses. The battery is suitable for either near-Earth geosynchronous missions, is compatible with passive or active thermal control systems and may be electrically controlled by a variety of changing routines. The initial application of the 50 A.H. Battery is a near-Earth mission aboard the LANDSAT D Satellite.
The forward propeller of a model counterrotation propeller was tested with its original aft propeller and with a reduced diameter aft propeller. Noise reductions with the reduced diameter aft propeller were measured at simulated cruise conditions. Reductions were as large as 7.5 dB for the aft-propeller passing tone and 15 dB in the harmonics at specific angles. The interaction tones, mostly the first, were reduced probably because the reduced-diameter aft-propeller blades no longer interacted with the forward propeller tip vortex. The total noise (sum of primary and interaction noise) at each harmonic was significantly reduced. The chief noise reduction at each harmonic came from reduced aft-propeller-alone noise, with the interaction tones contributing little to the totals at cruise. Total cruise noise reductions were as much as 3 dB at given angles for the blade passing tone and 10 dB for some of the harmonics. These reductions would measurably improve the fuselage interior noise levels and represent a definite cruise noise benefit from using a reduced diameter aft propeller.
A 25-Mb/s direct-detection optical communication system that used Q = 4 PPM (pulse-position modulation) signaling was constructed and its performance measured under laboratory conditions. The system used a single-mode AlGaAs laser diode (lambda = 834 nm) and low-noise silicon avalanche photodiode (APD). A procedure for numerically computing system performance is given that uses the nearly exact Webb approximation of the true Conradi distribution for the APD output and does not require excessive amounts of computer time. Comparison revealed that modeling the APD ouptut as a Gaussian process under conditions of negligible background radiation and low (less than 10 to the -12 A) APD bulk leakage currents leads to substantial underestimates of optimal APD gain and overestimates of system bit error probability. Examples illustrate the breakdown of the Gaussian approximation in assessing system performance. The measured performance was in excellent agreement with that predicted by the computational procedure. The system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the -6 at a received signal energy, corresponding to an average of 60 absorbed photons/bit and optimal APD gain of 700.
In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.
The accuracy of Young's fringe method for reducing velocity field data is compromized by a spatially incoherent background field which originates in the random locations of the seeding particles. The probability density function for the spatial frequency cutoff of this background is derived as a function of the particle count, the distribution governing the power in each frequency interval is derived, and conditions are found under which the Van Cittert-Zernike theorem applies. The background field resembles the far field of a partially coherent source in the high particle count limit, but departs significantly at low and moderate counts.
A five-week flight simulation investigation comparing screen/head stabilized Apache Helmet Mounted Display (HMD) flight symbology to world stabilized flight symbology is presented in this paper. Simulation test results indicate that pilots perform significantly (P is less than .05) better using world stabilized attitude symbology. They were accurate to an average of 1/2 deg at estimating terrain relief and aerial target locations. Pilots were able to take advantage of world referenced symbology due to the unique features of HMD that allow the pilot to visually use the symbology at extreme azimuth and elevation off-axis angles. Pilots preferred world stabilized symbology while performing contour flight tasks. They reported that the use of climb-dive-marker during contour flight greatly reduced pilot work load under conditions tested. A surprising number of cyclic input errors occurred when using both MIL-STD-1295 hover symbology and test symbology, indicating that a better approach for depicting hover symbology is probably warranted. The magnitude of cyclic input and spatial estimation errors increased as the off-axis viewing angle became larger.
This work is an extension of a project conducted at the previous CTR summer program and was reported by Chen et al. (1990). In that program, the geometry and topology of the dissipating motions in a variety of shear flows was examined. All data was produced by direct numerical simulations (DNS). The partial derivatives of the velocity field were determined at every grid point in the flow and various invariants and related quantities were computed from the velocity gradient tensor. Motions characterized by high rates of kinetic energy dissipation and high enstrophy were of particular interest. Scatter diagrams of the invariants were mapped out and interesting and unexpected patterns were seen. Each type of shear layer produced its own characteristic scatter plot. In the present project, attention is focused on the incompressible plane mixing layer, and the scatter diagrams are replaced with more useful joint probability density contours. Comparison of the topology of the dissipating motions of flows at different Reynolds numbers are made. Also, plane mixing layers at the same Reynolds number but with different initial conditions are compared.
The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline.
In January 2004, President Bush gave the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) a vision for Space Exploration by setting our sight on a bold new path to go back to the Moon, then to Mars and beyond. In response to this vision, NASA started the Constellation Program, which is a new exploration launch vehicle program. The primary mission for the Constellation Program is to carry out a series of human expeditions ranging from Low Earth Orbit to the surface of Mars and beyond for the purposes of conducting human exploration of space, as specified by the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE). The intent is that the information and technology developed by this program will provide the foundation for broader exploration activities as our operational experience grows. The ARES I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) has been designated as the launch vehicle that will be developed as a "first step" to facilitate the aforementioned human expeditions. The CLV Project is broken into four major elements: First Stage, Upper Stage Engine, Upper Stage (US), and the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is responsible for the design of the CLV and has the prime responsibility to design the upper stage of the vehicle. The US is the second propulsive stage of the CLV and provides CEV insertion into low Earth orbit (LEO) after separation from the First Stage of the Crew Launch Vehicle. The fully integrated Upper Stage is a mix of modified existing heritage hardware (J-2X Engine) and new development (primary structure, subsystems, and avionics). The Upper Stage assembly is a structurally stabilized cylindrical structure, which is powered by a single J-2X engine which is developed as a separate Element of the CLV. The primary structure includes the load bearing liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LOX) propellant tanks, a Forward Skirt, the Intertank structure, the Aft Skirt and the Thrust Structure. A Systems Tunnel, which carries fluid and electrical power functions to other Elements of the CLV, is included as secondary structure. The MSFC has an overall responsibility for the integrated US element as well as structural design an thermal control of the fuel tanks, intertank, interstage, avionics, main propulsion system, Reaction Control System (RCS) for both the Upper Stage and the First Stage. MSFC's Spacecraft and Vehicle Department, Structural and Analysis Design Division is developing a set of predicted mass of these elements. This paper details the methodology, criterion and tools used for the preliminary mass predictions of the upper stage structural assembly components. In general, weight of the cylindrical barrel sections are estimated using the commercial code Hypersizer, whereas, weight of the domes are developed using classical solutions. HyperSizer is software that performs automated structural analysis and sizing optimization based on aerospace methods for strength, stability, and stiffness. Analysis methods range from closed form, traditional hand calculations repeated every day in industry to more advanced panel buckling algorithms. Margin-of-safety reporting for every potential failure provides the engineer with a powerful insight into the structural problem. Optimization capabilities include finding minimum weight panel or beam concepts, material selections, cross sectional dimensions, thicknesses, and lay-ups from a library of 40 different stiffened and sandwich designs and a database of composite, metallic, honeycomb, and foam materials. Multiple different concepts (orthogrid, isogrid, and skin stiffener) were run for multiple loading combinations of ascent design load with and with out tank pressure as well as proof pressure condition. Subsequently, selected optimized concept obtained from Hypersizer runs was translated into a computer aid design (CAD) model to account for the wall thickness tolerance, weld land etc for developing the most probable weight of the components. The flow diram summarizes the analysis steps used in developing these predicted mass.
A method of adaptive setting of a threshold level for the detection of pulses in a pulse-position modulation (PPM) free-space optical communication system has been developed. In simplified terms, it is desirable to set a threshold value high enough to greatly reduce the probability (PFA as defined below) of erroneously detecting noise as signal pulses but not so high as to greatly reduce the probability (PD as defined below) of detecting any signal pulses that may be present along with noise. In the present method, the threshold level is varied with time, in response to changing conditions in the optical-communication channel, in an effort to maintain a balance between the aforesaid competing requirements. An integral part of this adaptation scheme is a scheme for estimating key parameters of the optical-communication channel in particular, parameters that describe the fading and total attenuation in the channel, and parameters that characterize spreading of pulses by atmospheric and other effects. The method can be implemented by software processing of digitized optoelectronic-detector output, and has been tested by computational simulation. In the first stage of processing by this method, the digitized values of the detector output during noise-only time slots of received PPM symbols are averaged to obtain a background level. This background level is subtracted from the detector output in the hope of reducing or eliminating the noise component in the remaining signal. (This background level should not be confused with the detection threshold, which is computed in the last stage of processing.) Next, the remaining signal - in effect, a vector of pulse samples - is normalized by dividing it by its L1 norm (in general, the L1 norm of a vector is defined as the sum of absolute magnitudes of its orthogonal components).
Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.
This work presents a summary of the first wear test of the 12 kW Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) intended to isolate the impact of discharge current on component wear rates. Testing was led by Aerojet Rocketdyne and performed with the AEPS Engineering Test Unit 2 (ETU-2) thruster. In total, approximately 860 hours of operation were accumulated split between operating conditions of 600 V/9 kW, 600 V/11 kW, and 600 V/12 kW. Thruster performance and stability were invariant throughout the wear test for all thruster throttle conditions and shown to be equal to the values previously measured with ETU-2. Inner front pole cover erosion rates were found to be invariant to discharge current as the measurements at all three operating conditions were equal to within the empirical uncertainty. Outer front pole cover erosion rates were found to be equal for the 600 V/9 kW and 600 V/12 kW conditions with operation at 600 V/11 kW yielding rates that were comparable to those on the inner front pole cover. Overall, the data shows that the AEPS thruster design has a high probability of meeting lifetime and performance requirements as the design proceeds to flight production and qualification.
The purpose of this paper is to inform advanced reactor developers of the conditions and requirements needed to manage the water used to reject heat from advanced reactor demonstrations at the INL. While there are many advanced reactor concepts, all of them require heat rejection, and some plan to use water for hear rejection. Cooling water for heat rejection is frequently the largest fresh-water load for a nuclear reactor, and therefore the focus of water management. The type of reactor and its purpose, the physical conditions at the INL, and the regulatory structure of the demonstration also influence the optimal method of heat rejection. Choosing the best method of rejecting heat will significantly influence the cost and probability of success for any advanced reactor demonstration. One of the important considerations in the deployment of demonstration plants at the INL site is water use and its implications. Advanced reactor developers need to consider the limitations of the water consumption based on the state and federal regulations. The water consumption may become a limitation when the demonstration reactor capacities reach to conventional nuclear power plants.
Carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (C/SiC) composites processed by chemical vapor infiltration are candidate materials for aerospace thermal structures. Carbon fibers can retain properties at very high temperatures, but they are known to have poor oxidation resistance in adverse, high-temperature environments. Nevertheless, the combination of CVI-SiC matrix with higher stiffness and oxidation resistance, the interfacial coating, and additional surface-seal coating provides the necessary protection to the carbon fibers, and makes the material viable for high-temperature space applications operating under harsh environments. Furthermore, C/SiC composites, like other ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), exhibit graceful non-catastrophic failure because of various inherent energy dissipating mechanisms. The material exhibits nonlinearity in deformation even at very low stress levels. This is the result of the severe matrix microcracking present in the as processed composite because of large differences between the coefficients of thermal expansion of the fiber and the matrix. Utilization of these advanced composites in next generation space vehicles will require innovative structural configurations, updated materials, and refined analyses. Structural safety issues for these vehicles are in direct competition with performance and cost. One would have to quantify the uncertainties associated with the design using formal probabilistic methods. Specifically four fundamental aspects on which analyses are based-- (1) loading conditions, (2) material behavior, (3) geometrical configurations, and (4) structural connections between the composite components and baseline structure--are stochastic in nature. A direct way to formally account for uncertainties is to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods where all participating variables are described by appropriate probability density functions. The present work, however, focuses on analyzing the stochastic material behavior of these advanced composites using formal probabilistic analysis methods. Often, some of the desirable property characteristics that allow composites to offer advantages over conventional structural materials (like tailoring of composite properties) and the complexity are in fact responsible for their greater statistical variability and the requirements for more characterization tests. Composite properties are anisotropic as well, having different properties in different directions. This means that characterization of a property such as stiffness--which will vary greatly depending on the orientation of the fiber relative to the direction of the testing--must be repeated for several different directions and loading conditions. The fabrication process for composites also introduces statistical variations in properties and geometry. A composite part is produced in a number of steps, each of which introduces statistical variability. The matrix is usually produced from a combination of raw materials; and the fiber, which has its own set of properties, is often coated or surface treated, introducing yet another source of variability.