Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “computer programming integrity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Integration Plan for NEAMS Structural Materials and Chemistry MSR Modeling

As part of its broad objective to support advanced reactor development, the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has a strong interest in developing simulation capabilities to address chemistry and corrosion issues for molten salt reactors (MSRs). To that end, the Structural Materials & Chemistry (SMC) technical area within the NEAMS program is developing a set of codes and databases to describe the behavior of molten salts and their interactions with structural materials. This document reviews the current activities with respect to MSR-relevant codes and is an effort to improve their integration in simulating MSR systems. Interoperability between the codes being developed is critical for the success of the NEAMS-developed MSR simulation capability. This is greatly facilitated by having codes based on the MOOSE framework when possible, and by developing interfaces to MOOSE-based tools for those tools that are not based on that framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of an improved MATLAB GUI for the prediction of coefficients of restitution, and integration into LMS.

In 2012, a Matlab GUI for the prediction of the coefficient of restitution was developed in order to enable the formulation of more accurate Finite Element Analysis (FEA) models of components. This report details the development of a new Rebound Dynamics GUI, and how it differs from the previously developed program. The new GUI includes several new features, such as source and citation documentation for the material database, as well as a multiple materials impact modeler for use with LMS Virtual.Lab Motion (LMS VLM), and a rigid body dynamics modeling software. The Rebound Dynamics GUI has been designed to work with LMS VLM to enable straightforward incorporation of velocity-dependent coefficients of restitution in rigid body dynamics simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Edge-Cloud Integrated Solution for Buildings Demand Response Using Reinforcement Learning

Buildings, as major energy consumers, can provide great untapped demand response (DR) resources for grid services. However, their participation remains low in real-life. One major impediment for popularizing DR in buildings is the lack of cost-effective automation systems that can be widely adopted. Existing optimization-based smart building control algorithms suffer from high costs on both building-specific modeling and on-demand computing resources. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a cost-effective edge-cloud integrated solution using reinforcement learning (RL). Beside RL’s ability to solve sequential optimal decision-making problems, its adaptability to easy-to-obtain building models and the off-line learning feature are likely to reduce the controller’s implementation cost. Using a surrogate building model learned automatically from building operation data, an RL agent learns an optimal control policy on cloud infrastructure, and the policy is then distributed to edge devices for execution. Simulation results demonstrate the control efficacy and the learning efficiency in buildings of different sizes. A preliminary cost analysis on a 4-zone commercial building shows the annual cost for optimal policy training is only 2.25% of the DR incentive received. Results of this study show a possible approach with higher return on investment for buildings to participate in DR programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The ATLAS experiment software on ARM

With an increased dataset obtained during the Run 3 of the LHC at CERN and the even larger expected increase of the dataset by more than one order of magnitude for the HL-LHC, the ATLAS experiment is reaching the limits of the current data processing model in terms of traditional CPU resources based on x86_64 architectures and an extensive program for software upgrades towards the HL-LHC has been set up. The ARM architecture is becoming a competitive and energy efficient alternative. Some surveys indicate its increased presence in HPCs and commercial clouds, and some WLCG sites have expressed their interest. Chip makers are also developing their next generation solutions on ARM architectures, sometimes combining ARM and GPU processors in the same chip. Consequently it is important that the ATLAS software embraces the change and is able to successfully exploit this architecture. We report on the successful porting to ARM of the Athena software framework, which is used by ATLAS for both online and offline computing operations. Furthermore we report on the successful validation of simulation workflows running on ARM resources. For this we have set up an ATLAS Grid site using ARM compatible middleware and containers on Amazon Web Services (AWS) ARM resources. The ARM version of Athena is fully integrated in the regular software build system and distributed in the same way as other software releases. In addition, the workflows have been integrated into the HEPscore benchmark suite which is the planned WLCG wide replacement of the HepSpec06 benchmark used for Grid site pledges. In the overall porting process we have used resources on AWS, Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and CERN. A performance comparison of different architectures and resources will be discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Robust Operation of Soft Open Points in Active Distribution Networks with High Penetration of Photovoltaic Integration

Distributed generators (DGs) including photovoltaic panels (PVs) have been integrated dramatically in active distribution networks (ADNs). Due to the strong volatility and uncertainty, the high penetration of PV generation immensely exacerbates the conditions of voltage violation in ADNs. However, the emerging flexible interconnection technology based on soft open points (SOPs) provides increased controllability and flexibility to the system operation. For fully exploiting the regulation ability of SOPs to address the problems caused by PV, this paper proposes a robust optimization method to achieve the robust optimal operation of SOPs in ADNs. A two-stage adjustable robust optimization model is built to tackle the uncertainties of PV outputs, in which robust operation strategies of SOPs are generated to eliminate the voltage violations and reduce the power losses of ADNs. A column-and-constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm is developed to solve the proposed robust optimization model, which are formulated as second-order cone program (SOCP) to facilitate the accuracy and computation efficiency. Here, case studies on the modified IEEE 33-node system and comparisons with the deterministic optimization approach are conducted to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Greggd

greg(g)d - Global runtime for eBPF-enabled gathering (w/ gumption) daemon Recently the linux kernel has added support for low-level kernel monitoring and profiling through a in-kernel virtual machine. The tooling around these new features (the extended Berkley Packet Filter or eBPF for short) is not mature and is difficult to use. Benefits from eBPF are especially hard to realize while trying to do large scale deployments and integrate with existing metric analysis stacks. A tool was needed to enable loading and collecting data from eBPF programs on large scale HPC systems. Given the problems above it was obvious we needed some wrapper program to compile, load, and collect data from eBPF programs running in the kernel. This tool needed to be lightweight without a heavy set of dependencies, relatively stable between different kernel versions, and integrate nicely with existing widely used metric collection tools. We wrote a program that wraps the eBPF tooling and sends data to our metric gathering tool. eBPF programs are either compiled using the host compiler stack, or loaded in the kernel directly from an object file. These programs are then attached to the system calls that we want to profile. Whenever these system calls are run, the eBPF program collects information of interest and writes that to memory. Our wrapper program polls these memory locations, reads and formats the data, then sends the information to a local unix socket. Our other monitoring tools are configured to read from that socket and send it to the rest of our metric monitoring stack for analysis.

Voss, Joseph [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak ↗

Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.

This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

White Box Access to Quantum Testbeds for Co-Design

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we operate and maintain the Quantum Device and Integration Testbed (QuDIT) facility, a small quantum testbed that supports about 10 active research teams (including our own) and over 50 internal and external collaborators. This testbed is designed to give remote white box access to users for research, training, and outreach. A guiding principle behind the development of our testbed infrastructure, software and user interfaces is to empower users to perform experiments at the cutting edge of quantum information science at any level of abstraction, from materials studies, device physics and control and characterization techniques to algorithm development and quantum operating system design. Our testbed targets a multilevel quantum system (qudit) to expand the accessible Hilbert space of a simple-to-manufacture quantum device and focuses on quantum simulation, typically implemented through custom gates designed with quantum optimal control methods, rather than on a universal computing framework with a fixed gate set. We leverage the Lab’s high-performance computing (HPC) program and related expertise to simulate quantum systems, develop hybrid algorithms, and generate gates optimized for given simulations. Additionally, we have adopted a co-design philosophy from the HPC community in designing new hardware, so that the systems we develop are optimized for the specific physics simulations we plan to use them for.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Advanced Ultrasupercritical (AUSC) Materials Thick-Walled Cycling Header Development for ComTest-AUSC (Final Report)

Alstom Power Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of the General Electric Company (GE) recently completed “Advanced Ultrasupercritical (AUSC) Materials Thick-Walled Cycling Header Development for ComTest-AUSC” under Award No. DE-FE0026183 for the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL). This project developed a design for testing of a high temperature nickel-based superalloy thick-walled header to simulate cycling and flexible plant operation in new and existing plants. The objective was to simulate the expected thermal stresses of a new AUSC plant or a retrofit header in an existing plant to improve flexible dynamic operation while maintaining component integrity and overall power plant reliability. The high performance superalloy materials that enable higher operating temperatures and pressures can support future transformational power technologies including new AUSC plants at 4250-5000 psi, 730°C/760°C or will serve as a replacement component in a repowered or retrofit USC coal powered cycling plant at 3600 psi, 600°C. These alloys can also enable supercritical CO2 cycles, nuclear power, solar power and more efficient natural gas combined cycle units as targeted by the U.S. DOE/NETL Cross-Cutting Research Technology Program Plan. Recently developed advanced nickel alloys such as Inconel 740H (740H) and Haynes 282 (H282) have been successfully tested on a pilot scale for fireside corrosion using steam loop tubing at AUSC temperatures of 760°C in actual operating coal fired boiler. These high strength materials have been demonstrated their adequacy for use in other high temperature boiler components such as superheater tubes. Thick-walled superheater outlet headers which operate at high temperatures and pressure under severe cycling condition are considered as one of the most critical component in the AUSC coal fired boiler. Over the design life of a plant, these headers are exposed to the most severe fatigue and creep damage accumulation and need to be properly designed for the expected cycling in an AUSC plant with flexible operation. These materials need to demonstrate adequate design life of 20 to 30 years for creep and fatigue conditions. The following tasks were performed: 1. A conceptual design was developed of a thick-walled component representative of typical headers with several tube connections and proper flow rates (~100,000 lbs/hr) suitable for Phase II test at 760°C operation. This was based on a process analysis of expected full scale new and component retrofit designs for AUSC; 2. A multi-physics flow and heat transfer computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the component for proper layout of the header configuration, number and geometry (size) of tubes required for bypass flow, flow rates through the tubing, and sectional pressure drops was performed. Steam to header metal heat transfer film coefficients in the header section and the tubes during the two stages (half load and full load) of the cycling operation were evaluated and used in the stress analysis; 3. Detailed analytical evaluation of the thick-walled pipe and tube connections for mechanical integrity under cycling conditions was performed. This included transient thermal stress analysis and fatigue usage estimation including the tube-to-pipe weld geometries and weld materials; 4. A layout and design of the thick-walled test component was developed and instrumentation required for a test was identified; 5. Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) creep prediction models were extended to 740H and H282 and validated with public data on 740H and H282 for use in creep analysis. In addition, detailed creep analyses were performed separately for the design life of the conceptual AUSC superheater outlet header using these General Electric (GE) creep constitutive models. GE was the prime contractor for the project, which was directed by Principal Investigator Robert Schrecengost and Lead Scientist Dr. B. Reddy Ganta. Other collaborative participants in this project included GE Global Research, GE Boiler Engineering, and a Technical Consultant from EPRI.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Integration of graphical approaches into optimization-based design of multistage liquid extraction

We propose two optimization models for designing two liquid extraction systems: simple multistage liquid extractors and extractors with extract reflux. Both models are motivated by the concepts of the modified McCabe-Thiele graphical method for multistage extractor design. The operating and equilibrium curves in the McCabe-Thiele method are represented by material balances and piece-wise linearized thermodynamics properties. The use of piece-wise approximations improves computational tractability of both optimization models. In addition, we consider some extensions such as dilute systems, insoluble solvents, and non-ideal stages. In conclusion, the applicability of the proposed models is demonstrated with four illustrative examples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Low Activity Waste Glass Waste Form Data Package for Hanford's Integrated Disposal Facility Performance Assessment - 16480

A Direct Feed Low Activity Waste (DFLAW) flowsheet has been initiated to begin immobilization of Hanford tank wastes. In the DFLAW configuration, a pretreatment system will segregate the high level and the low activity wastes (LAW). The LAW will be immobilized in the Waste Treatment Plant (WTP) and disposed of in Hanford's Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). To obtain authorization to dispose of wastes in the IDF, a Performance Assessment (PA) must be completed in accordance with DOE Order 435.1. The PA shall include calculations of potential doses to representative future members of the public and potential releases from the facility to provide a reasonable expectation that performance objectives will not be exceeded as a result of operation and closure of the facility. To support the development of the PA, data from ILAW glass testing are needed to model the long term release of contaminants over the compliance period and verify that impacts to groundwater quality will be within performance objective limits. Washington River Protection Solutions is conducting an ILAW glass testing program to produce the required data. This program is a combined effort involving National Laboratories with known expertise in glass waste form research. The work involves accelerated testing to develop parameters that can be used in computer simulations of glass corrosion and contaminant release in the IDF environment. The results of this work will be compiled in an ILAW glass waste form performance data package for the IDF PA. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advances in Nuclear Data Evaluation Theory for NCSP [Slides]

The generalized form of the Bayes’ Theorem improves UQ for NCSP of differential and/or integral data evaluations and of applications. It is being implemented in an API for use by SCALE, SAMMY, etc. Extended R-matrix formalism improves evaluations of RRR including direct reactions, direct capture, and the Reich-Moore approx., doorway state reactions with applications to RPI data on lead isotopes. Extended R-Matrix formalism will be implemented into SAMMY post modernization.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Coherent Wavelength Switched Co-Packaged Optics to Disrupt Datacenters/HPC (AKA "QRock") (Final Report)

This project resulted in multiple first-of-a-kind demonstrations, including two generations of transmitters, a receiver, and a complete coherent link. The transmitter architecture, based on EAMs to generate QPSK modulation was first demonstrated in InP, which has limitations for scaling up to chips with multiple channels for full WDM architectures, and implementing the densities and level of integration needed to implement co-packaging with electronics. Our work resulted in the first demonstration of this architecture on a Si platform compatible with copackaging, and our working prototypes illustrated the potential of the approach. The link demonstration was also the first coherent optical link realized in a multi-micron waveguide platform. For the transmitters, integrating efficient III-V EAM devices into the large waveguide Si platform simultaneously enables significant reduction in driver power consumption while minimizing optical losses in routing and fiber coupling. On the receiver side, optical coupling and propagation losses are also minimized in the multi-micron platform, reducing required laser optical power which improves link energy efficiency. The measurement results presented in the final report demonstrate that we achieved the speed objectives for the program (112Gb/s: 56Gbaud QPSK), albeit at a higher BER than targeted. The report provides assessments of the low-powercoherent link architecture and associated components developed under the program from both technological and commercial viewpoints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

WHONDRS-GUI: a web application for global survey of surface water metabolites

Background The Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) is a consortium that aims to understand complex hydrologic, biogeochemical, and microbial connections within river corridors experiencing perturbations such as dam operations, floods, and droughts. For one ongoing WHONDRS sampling campaign, surface water metabolite and microbiome samples are collected through a global survey to generate knowledge across diverse river corridors. Metabolomics analysis and a suite of geochemical analyses have been performed for collected samples through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). The obtained knowledge and data package inform mechanistic and data-driven models to enhance predictions of outcomes of hydrologic perturbations and watershed function, one of the most critical components in model-data integration. To support efforts of the multi-domain integration and make the ever-growing data package more accessible for researchers across the world, a Shiny/R Graphical User Interface (GUI) called WHONDRS-GUI was created. Results The web application can be run on any modern web browser without any programming or operational system requirements, thus providing an open, well-structured, discoverable dataset for WHONDRS. Together with a context-aware dynamic user interface, the WHONDRS-GUI has functionality for searching, compiling, integrating, visualizing and exporting different data types that can easily be used by the community. The web application and data package are available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1484811 , which enables users to simultaneously obtain access to the data and code and to subsequently run the web app locally. The WHONDRS-GUI is also available for online use at Shiny Server ( https://xmlin.shinyapps.io/whondrs/ ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Roothaan’s approach to solve the Hartree-Fock equations for atoms confined by soft walls: Basis set with correct asymptotic behavior

In this report, we use a new basis set for Hartree-Fock calculations related to many-electron atoms confined by soft walls. One- and two-electron integrals were programmed in a code based in parallel programming techniques. The results obtained with this proposal for hydrogen and helium atoms were contrasted with other proposals to study just one and two electron confined atoms, where we have reproduced or improved the results previously reported. Usually, an atom enclosed by hard walls has been used as a model to study confinement effects on orbital energies, the main conclusion reached by this model is that orbital energies always go up when the confinement radius is reduced. However, such an observation is not necessarily valid for atoms confined by penetrable walls. The main reason behind this result is that for atoms with large polarizability, like beryllium or potassium, external orbitals are delocalized when the confinement is imposed and consequently, the internal orbitals behave as if they were in an ionized atom. Naturally, the shell structure of these atoms is modified drastically when they are confined. The delocalization was an argument proposed for atoms confined by hard walls, but it was never verified. In this work, the confinement imposed by soft walls allows to analyze the delocalization concept in many-electron atoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deploying and Tracking Software with NCCS Software Provisioning

The National Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has a long history of deploying ground-breaking leadership-class supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy. The latest in this line of supercomputers is Frontier, the first supercomputer to break the exascale barrier (1018 floating-point operations per second) on the TOP500 list. Frontier serves a wide array of scientific domains, from traditional simulation-based workloads to newer AI and Machine Learning workloads. To best serve the NCCS user community, NCCS uses Spack to deploy a comprehensive software stack of scientific software packages, providing straightforward access to these packages through Lmod Environment Modules. Maintaining a large software stack while also including multiple new compiler releases each year is a very time-consuming task. Additionally, it is not straightforward to provide a software stack alongside existing vendor-provided software such as the HPE/Cray Programming Environment (CPE), and existing CPE, Spack, and Lmod integration does not allow for multiple versions of GPU libraries such as AMD’s ROCm to be used. To address these challenges and shortcomings, NCCS has developed the NCCS Software Provisioning tool (NSP)1, a tool for deploying and monitoring software stacks on HPC systems. NSP allows NCCS to quickly and effectively provision software stacks from the ground up using template-driven recipes and configuration files. NSP is successfully deployed on Frontier and several other NCCS clusters, enabling the NCCS software team to quickly deploy software stacks for newly-released compilers, expand current software offerings, better support GPU-based software, and monitor Lmod module usage to identify unused software packages that can be removed from the software stack. In this work, we discuss the shortcomings of the previous CPE, Spack, and Lmod usage at NCCS, provide further details on the implementation and structure of NSP, then discuss the benefits that NSP provides.

Rentschler, Asa [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000597694743)↗

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗