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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS, GUIDANCE, AND REVIEW OF EMBEDDED DIGITAL DEVICES IN SAFETY SYSTEMS

Interest in embedded digital devices (EDDs) for monitoring and providing control of components is increasing in the nuclear power market as more and more users both within and outside the nuclear sector are employing EDDs. EDDs in other industries or countries may be known by the related terms as smart devices, devices of limited functionality, or intelligent devices. EDDs can sometimes perform a safety role when embedded in components such as temperature transmitters, pressure transmitters, voltage regulators, gas analyzers, boiler controllers, relays, and radiation monitors. The introduction of EDDs can affect safety by creating new hazards, vulnerabilities, failure modes, triggering mechanisms, and other potential safety concerns at both the component and system levels. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) existing regulations and guidance cover the use of EDDs in safety-related and important to safety systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). In addition to potential future challenges, the nature of EDDs being implemented in similar or identical manners between different plants and industries opens up the potential of leveraging the reviews of other regulators or utilization of industry certifications.Key words: embedded digital device, firmware

Halverson, D. S.↗

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT OF DIGITAL I&C SAFETY SYSTEMS FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Upgrading the existing analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems to state-of-the-art digital I&C (DI&C) systems provides the foremost means to improve performance and reduce costs for existing light-water reactors (LWRs). However, qualification of digital technologies remains a challenge?especially the issue of software common cause failure (CCF), which has been difficult to address. Existing analyses of CCFs in I&C systems mainly focus on hardware failures. With the application and upgrading of new DI&C systems, software CCFs due to design flaws might become a potential threat to plant safety, considering that most redundancy designs use similar digital platforms or software in their operating and application systems. With complex multi-layer redundancy designs to meet the single failure criterion, these I&C safety systems are of particular concern in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. In 2019, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy?s (DOE?s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program initiated a project to develop a risk assessment strategy for delivering a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, secure DI&C technologies for digital upgrades/designs. An integrated risk assessment for the DI&C (RADIC) process was proposed for this strategy to identify potential key digital-induced failures, implement reliability analyses of related digital safety I&C systems, and evaluate the unanalyzed sequences introduced by these failures (particularly software CCFs) at the plant level. This paper summarizes these RISA efforts in the risk analysis of safety-related DI& systems at Idaho National Laboratory.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of Principal Design Criteria of the Fast Modular Reactor

General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems (GA-EMS) is developing a 50-megawatt electric (MWe) helium-cooled Fast Modular Reactor (FMR). The project has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20). The long-term goal of the project is to design, license, and commercialize the FMR plant by the mid-2030s. Early engagement with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is an important step for the developers to license the advanced reactors including the FMR. As an effort to support the design and the preapplication regulatory engagement plan, GA-EMS is developing Principal Design Criteria (PDC) applicable to the FMR design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

ORNL Neutron Cross Section Measurements of 90 Zr

Nuclear criticality modeling and simulations rely on the quality of the existing evaluated nuclear data libraries such as Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B, the Joint Evaluated Fission and Fusion (JEFF) nuclear data library, or the Japanese Evaluated Nuclear Data Library (JENDL). In some cases, the cross-section evaluations of those libraries were found to be deficient in describing criticality benchmarks accurately. More than two decades ago, the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) established a Nuclear Data (ND) task which encompassed experiments and evaluations. In response to this, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) formed a Nuclear Criticality and Data group which performed ND experiments, data analysis, and evaluations to produce ENDF files for the ND libraries as identified in the NCSP Five-Year Plan. Before being submitted to the ENDF library, files were processed and tested for performance by running benchmark calculations. This procedure was centralized in the ORNL group and is now often referred to as the ND pipeline. NCSP collaborates with the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission in Geel, Belgium, to perform high-resolution neutron-induced cross section measurements at the Geel Linear Accelerator (GELINA). The objective is to address emerging ND problems in criticality calculations. Difficulties with ND include insufficient neutron energy range, missing covariances, and previously unrecognized inaccuracies with experiments. New neutron total and capture cross sections of 90 Zr in the neutron energy range from 100 eV to several hundred keV were recently performed. These measured data will be used, together with existing high-resolution transmission data from a metallic 90 Zr sample, to improve representation of the cross sections.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preliminary Design of Critical Experiments Involving Commercially Available B 4 C Neutron Absorber Plates with Low-Enriched UO 2 Fuel

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) is an initiative to provide high-quality benchmark data in a standardized format for criticality safety analysts to use to validate calculational tools and nuclear data. In the last released 2022 version, the ICSBEP handbook contains over 5,000 critical experiment descriptions, results, and associated models. This paper describes the critical configurations proposed and calculations performed as part of the conceptual design phase of Integral Experiment Request (IER) 554 (IER-554). The goal of IER-554 is to add to the benchmark experiments available to the criticality safety community by designing critical experiments that can analyze how adding commercially available Boralcan plates to an assembly of low-enriched UO2 fuel rods affects the effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ). Boralcan, a neutron absorber product developed by Rio Tinto, is made of B4C in an Al 1100 matrix and is commonly used for criticality suppression in fuel storage pools. In the current version of the ICSBEP handbook, only a few dated critical experiments involve B4C materials, and none involve Boralcan in a thin plate shape. The experiments designed as part of IER-554 are intended to be performed at the Sandia Pulsed Reactor Facility/Critical Experiments (SPRF/CX) apparatus at Sandia National Laboratories. SPRF/CX is a well-characterized assembly considered trustworthy by the benchmarking community because of the numerous high-quality evaluations with very low experimental uncertainties included in the ICSBEP handbook. Figure 1 illustrates the assembly for a particular configuration from LCT-078, one of the published benchmarks in the ICSBEP handbook. The experiments will be moderated and reflected by light water at ambient atmospheric pressure. Before the plates are inserted in the critical assembly, they will be characterized with x-ray computed tomography (XCT) to identify the sizes and distribution of the B 4 C powder particles inside the plates. The preliminary design calculations were performed with SCALE 6.3.0 using the KENO V.a sequence for the criticality calculations, the CE-TSUNAMI-3D sequence for the sensitivity and uncertainty studies, and the ENDF/B-VII.1 Continuous Energy cross section library. All the calculation results presented have 10 pcm statistical uncertainties. A set of critical experiments with Boralcan plates could increase the confidence of the criticality safety community in its modeling methods when using this type of neutron absorber material. Experiments would also help validate k eff calculations, and the industry could use these validations to change the B loading credit limits from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission standard review plan for dry cask storage of spent nuclear fuel. This paper summarizes only part of the analysis documented in the preliminary design report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Tailored approach to study Legionella infection using a lattice light sheet microscope (LLSM)

Legionella is a genus of ubiquitous environmental pathogens found in freshwater systems, moist soil, and composted materials. More than four decades of Legionella research has provided important insights into Legionella pathogenesis. Although standard commercial microscopes have led to significant advances in understanding Legionella pathogenesis, great potential exists in the deployment of more advanced imaging techniques to provide additional insights. The lattice light sheet microscope (LLSM) is a recently developed microscope for 4D live cell imaging with high resolution and minimum photo-damage. We built a LLSM with an improved version for the optical layout with two path-stretching mirror sets and a novel reconfigurable galvanometer scanner ( RGS ) module to improve the reproducibility and reliability of the alignment and maintenance of the LLSM. We commissioned this LLSM to study Legionella pneumophila infection with a tailored workflow designed over instrumentation, experiments, and data processing methods. Our results indicate that Legionella pneumophila infection is correlated with a series of morphological signatures such as smoothness, migration pattern and polarity both statistically and dynamically. Our work demonstrates the benefits of using LLSM for studying long-term questions in bacterial infection. Our free-for-use modifications and workflow designs on the use of LLSM system contributes to the adoption and promotion of the state-of-the-art LLSM technology for both academic and commercial applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The LCLS-II Photo-Injector Drive Laser System

We present the new drive laser system for the photo-injector of the LCLS-II XFEL at SLAC, including the first commissioning results and challenges encountered due to high power, high repetition rate ultraviolet laser operation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Concrete Testing Case for Closure of Handford’s 241-C Underground Storage Tanks

Sixty percent of the nation's highly toxic and radioactive mixed wastes are stored at Hanford in 177 deteriorating underground storage tanks. To close or remove these storage tanks from service and place them in a condition that is protective of human health and the environment, the tanks must be physically stabilized to prevent subsidence once wastes have been retrieved. Remaining residual liquid waste in the tanks that cannot be removed must be solidified and the solid wastes encapsulated to meet the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, and the State of Washington requirements. The Department of Energy has developed cementitious flowable concretes to restrict access and provide chemical stabilization for radionuclides. Formulation, laboratory, and field testing for application at Hanford began with flowable, self-leveling structural and non-structural fills. A slump flow equal to or greater than 610 mm, 0% bleed water, and 0.1% (by volume) shrinkage measurements were key parameters guiding reformulation efforts that resulted in highly flowable, self-consolidating concretes that met Hanford 241-C Tank closure short- and long-term regulatory and engineering performance requirements.

formula development↗

Updated U.S. Low-Temperature Heating and Cooling Demand by County and Sector

This dataset includes U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in major end-use sectors: residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data centers. Census division-level end-use energy consumption, expenditure, and commissioned power database were dis-aggregated to the county level. The county-level database was incorporated with climate zone, numbers of housing units and farms, farm size, and coefficient of performance (COP) for heating and cooling demand analysis. This dataset also includes a paper containing a full explanation of the methodologies used and maps. Residential data were updated from the latest Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) dataset (2015) using 2020 census data. Commercial data were baselined off the latest Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) dataset (2012). Manufacturing data were baselined off the latest Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) dataset (2021).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Comminty Geothermal: Planning and Design of a Heating and Cooling System in Framingham, Massachusetts

These reports, plans, and drawings review the achievements of Home Energy Efficiency Team (HEET) and its partners to plan and design a network of interconnected ground-source heat pump systems, or geothermal network, in an area encompassing multiple environmental justice (EJ) neighborhoods in the City of Framingham, MA. The materials provided in this dataset include, a) stakeholder and design best practices, b) study on optimal method to interconnect geothermal loops, c) guidelines for monitoring and metering, d) operations and maintenance plans, e) permitting guidelines and f) 10-day driller tutorial curriculum. These materials can guide the efficient and ethical design of future geothermal networks nationwide. The capacity of the system is estimated at 217 tons and is designed to provide 100% of heating and cooling needs for the buildings connected to the loop. In this project, 80 boreholes are used as the main thermal resources, the distribution system (or loop) consists of 0.61 miles of an 8-inch single-pipe at ambient temperature, with the capacity to connect 44 buildings, including 13 apartment buildings from the Framingham Housing Authority, one transitional home, one school building and 29 single family homes. While Framingham already has a geothermal network loop that is currently in the commissioning stage, our proposed project is unique because it is the first utility-led expansion loop (2nd loop) project that will connect to an adjacent existing geothermal loop (1st loop) in a pre-existing neighborhood. Both the 1st and 2nd loops are being installed, owned and operated by Eversource Energy, the utility Deployment Partner.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Standard atomic weights of the elements 2021 (IUPAC Technical Report)

Following the reviews of atomic-weight determinations and other cognate data in 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021, the IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry) Commission on Isotopic Abundances and Atomic Weights (CIAAW) reports changes of standard atomic weights. The symbol A r°(E) was selected for standard atomic weight of an element to distinguish it from the atomic weight of an element E in a specific substance P, designated A r(E, P). The CIAAW has changed the values of the standard atomic weights of five elements based on recent determinations of terrestrial isotopic abundances. The standard atomic weight of argon and lead have changed to an interval to reflect that the natural variation in isotopic composition exceeds the measurement uncertainty of A r(Ar) and A r(Pb) in a specific substance. The standard atomic weights and/or the uncertainties of fourteen elements have been changed based on the Atomic Mass Evaluations 2016 and 2020 accomplished under the auspices of the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics (IUPAP). A r° of Ho, Tb, Tm and Y were changed in 2017 and again updated in 2021.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optimization of the BDX experiment for Light Dark Matter searches at JLab

The Light Dark Matter (LDM) hypothesis postulates the existence of a new class of sub GeV particles, neutral under Standard Model (SM) interactions. In its simplest form, LDM consists of particles ¿ with masses below 1 GeV/c2, interacting with SM particles via a new force mediated by a light, spin-1 boson A0, commonly referred to as “Dark Photon”. This framework envisions a distinct “Dark Sector” with its own particles and interactions, offering a theoretically well motivated explanation for Dark Matter, consistent with astrophysical observations and a thermal production mechanism. The Beam Dump eXperiment (BDX) is an approved experiment at Jefferson Lab designed to search for Light Dark Matter. BDX will utilize an 11 GeV electron beam impinging on a thick target to produce a forward-boosted secondary beam of Light Dark Matter particles, which will then be detected by a dedicated downstream detector. Approved in 2018, BDX is expected to be commissioned in 2026 and run in 2027-2029. My thesis focuses on the preparatory work to deploy the BDX experiment. The detector design has been optimized to balance practicality with enhanced Light Dark Matter detection capabilities. Extensive characterization of detector components has been performed to ensure a precise understanding of detector response. A custom Monte Carlo framework has been developed to simulate Light Dark Matter signal and explore various theoretical models of interest. Additionally, a comprehensive data analysis framework has been developed to maximize the experiment sensitivity to Light Dark Matter, with optimizations based on expected detector performance. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to optimize BDX as a flagship experiment in Light Dark Matter searches, enabling it to probe different Dark Matter models.

Spreafico, M. [Univ. of Genova (Italy)]↗

2011 Atlanta, Georgia, Regional Travel Survey

The 2011 Regional Travel Survey collected trip data from households across 20 counties in and around Atlanta, Georgia, to improve regional travel demand forecasts. The survey was conducted by PTV NuStats, GeoStats, and PG Americas Inc. on behalf of the Atlanta Regional Commission. The goal was to collect trip data from a minimum of 10,000 households with a subsample of 1,000 households providing global positioning system (GPS) data. The GPS add-on consisted of two sample groups. The first sample group was provided with GPS devices to install in their personal vehicles (797 vehicles) to collect the speed and location of a vehicle during an assigned study period. The second sample group (1,653 participants) was provided with a wearable GPS device to collect the speed and location of an individual during an assigned study period. People participating in the wearable add-on part of the study were chosen because their travel diaries reported use of public transit in day-to-day travel. Each GPS participant was grouped into either the spring phase (March to May 2011) or the fall phase (July to September 2011), and data were recorded for a maximum of seven days for vehicle units and three days for wearable units.

1Hz data↗

2015-2017 California Vehicle Survey

The 2015-2017 California Vehicle Survey of residential and commercial light-duty vehicle owners in California assessed consumer preferences for vehicles and included a targeted sample of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners. Resource Systems Group conducted the survey on behalf of the California Energy Commission. In addition to economic and demographic data, the survey integrated light-duty vehicle holding and use information with vehicle choice data collected via the stated preferences survey's set of eight vehicle and fuel type choice exercises. The PEV owner survey participants provided additional data on charging behavior, electricity rates, and their main motivations for purchasing PEVs.

1Hz data↗

2013 California Vehicle Survey

The 2013 California Vehicle Survey (CVS) collected data on household and commercial vehicle usage, and on future vehicle purchases. ICF International conducted the survey on behalf of the California Energy Commission. Approximately 8,000 respondents, from California households and businesses, completed the survey. The household component of the CVS included a selection of households from the 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS), who had stated their intention to purchase a vehicle in the near future. Both household surveys used the same survey ID numbers enabling the integration of responses. The commercial vehicle component of the CVS—a stand-alone survey of commercial fleet owners in California—asked vehicle owners questions pertaining to economic and demographic attributes, current fleets, and preferences about planned vehicle purchases.

1Hz data↗