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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Atmospheric moisture fields derived by satellite observations over the tropical Pacific Ocean

Values of precipitable water are retrieved over the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean from TOVS infrared and microwave channel brightness temperature and OLR observations by means of stepwise linear regression. The most useful temperature and moisture sensing channels are pre-selected from sensitivity tests of a radiative transfer model. Numerous models are developed and tested against collocated radiosonde observations and Nimbus-7 SMMR precipitable water estimates. For RAOB comparisons, the best estimator used 15 TOVS predictors and captured 71.1 deg percent of the variance (+0.62 g/sq cm standard error) for column precipitable water; for precipitable water of 700-500 mb bulk layer, these values were 71.7 percent and +/- 0.17 g/sq cm. Little skill of estimated precipitable water was obtained for moisture above 500 mb. Regressions were less skillful against SMMR, unless collocation parameters were tightly controlled; SMMR was less acceptable than RAOB's because of observational drift and errors. Generally, the most skillful predictors were boundary layer brightness temperatures of TOVS channels and satellite estimated stability indices. 'Moisture channels' were hardly useful except for estimating middle and upper tropospheric moisture. Additional regression models were constructed testing the sensitivity to different observational and meteorological characteristics. Models which used some in situ observations surface observations or stabilities calculated from RAOB, were the most successful. The best of these explained 87.5 percent of the variance but the regression selected almost no TOVS channels, relying instead on conventional RAOB and surface observations. A set of four regression models were developed, stratifying atmospheric characteristics on the basis of collocated OLR values. These models improved the variance explained by 5.0 percent; the model associated with the highest OLR values (275 W/sq m less than or equal to OLR; that is, no cloud) showed only marginal skill. Precipitable water fields were generated from the best TOVS-only model for seven days in January 1983 and compared with SMMR-estimated fields. OLR fields and ECMWF precipitable water analysis. The TOVS regression model compared favorably to the SMMR analysis in amplitudes and features. It revealed more evolving synoptic signal than the ECMWF analysis. In synoptically active regions, it differed with respect to the OLR analysis, primarily because of actual differences in the vertical distribution of water vapor.

Chung, Hyosang↗
NASA NTRS1992

Impact contribution of prebiotic reactants to Earth

It is proposed that the AIB amino acid at the K/T boundary were synthesized during entry of a comet. However, whether they were synthesized or supplied directly from space, the concentration of amino acids in the shallow K/T sea would have been about 10(exp -7) M. It is probable that clays were the dominant sinks for the amino acids in the K/T sea and in the primordial ocean. Because clay removed amino acids from sea water quickly, the amino acid contribution must be studied from individual comets in order to evaluate the effectiveness of comets for chemical evolution. Such an evaluation shows that comets would have produced amino acid concentration higher than equilibrium concentrations of amino acid from corona discharge at all times preceding the age of the oldest fossils. The perferred sites for chemical evolution of cometary amino acids are in cloud drops and tide pools where the concentration of amino acids would have been the highest. Life could have originated at the surface even during periods of intense bombardment of the earth before 3.8 billion years ago.

Aggarwal, Hans R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Impact contribution of prebiotic reactants to Earth

It is proposed that the AIB amino acids at the K/T boundary were synthesized during entry of a comet. However, whether they were synthesized or supplied directly from space, the concentration of amino acids in the shallow K/T sea would have been about 10(exp -7) M. It is probable that clays were the dominant sinks for the amino acids in the K/T sea and in the primordial ocean. Because clay removed amino from the sea so quickly, we must study the amino acid contribution from individual comets in order to evaluate the effectiveness of comets for chemical evolution. Such an evaluation shows that comets would have produced amino acid concentrations higher than equilibrium concentrations of amino acids from corona discharge at all times preceding the age of the oldest fossils. The preferred sites for chemical evolution of cometary amino acids are in cloud drops and tide pools where the concentration of amino acids would have been the highest. Life could have originated at the surface even during periods of intense bombardment of the earth before 3.8 billion years ago.

Aggarwal, Hans R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The FU Orionis Outburst as a Thermal Disk Accretion Event: Detailed Calculations and Comparison to Observations

FU Orionis outbursts are temporary large increases in luminosity: x(40-250) thought to occur repeatedly in all low mass young stellar systems. We discuss detailed calculations of viscous accretion disks suggesting that FU Ori events signify the existence of a protostellar disk transporting mass at a rate of (1-10) x 10(exp -6) Solar Mass/yr, in agreement with theoretical and observational estimates of molecular cloud core collapse rates. Accretion through the inner edge of disks subject to outburst is self-regulated through the thermal ionization instability such that long periods (approximately 1000 yrs) of low mass flux: (1-10) x 10(exp -8) Solar Mass/yr, are punctuated by short periods (approximately 100 yrs) of high mass flux: (1-10) x 10(exp -5) Solar Mass/yr. The unstable region of the disk extends radially only to a distance of approximately 1/4 AU. Beyond this region matter is transported stably at the infall rate. In systems for which M = 1 Solar Mass, with an inner disk edge of 3 Solar Radius, the critical rate for outbursts is 5 x 10(exp -7) Solar Mass/yr independent of the magnitude of the viscous alpha parameter consistent with estimates of boundary layer mass flux in T Tauri stars. We use timescales of observed outbursts to constrain the magnitude of the alpha parameter to be 10(exp -4) where hydrogen is neutral and 10(exp -3) where ionized. Light curves of V1515 Cyg, FU Ori, and V1057 Cyg are reproduced; the latter two require application of a small perturbation in surface density to produce observed rapid rise times. Detailed reply is made to objections to the accretion disk model for outbursts. Comparison to observations are made of time dependent spectral energy distributions, colors, and line-width velocity evolution.

Bell, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Radiative Effects of Aerosols

During the Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) in June 1992, two descents in cloud-free regions allowed comparison of the change in aerosol optical depth as determined by an onboard total-direct-diffuse radiometer (TDDR) to the change calculated from measured size-resolved aerosol microphysics and chemistry. Both profiles included a pollution haze from Europe but the second also included the effect of a Saharan dust layer above the haze. The separate contributions of supermicrometer (coarse) and submicrometer (fine) aerosol were determined and thermal analysis of the pollution haze indicated that the fine aerosol was composed primarily of a sulfate/water mixture with a refractory soot-like core. The soot core increased the calculated extinction by about 10% in the most polluted drier layer relative to a pure sulfate aerosol but had significantly less effect at higher humidities. A 3 km descent through a boundary layer air mass dominated by pollutant aerosol with relative humidities (RH) 10-77% yielded a close agreement between the measured and calculated aerosol optical depths (550 nm) of 0.160 (+/- 0.07) and 0. 157 (+/- 0.034) respectively. During descent the aerosol mass scattering coefficient per unit sulfate mass varied from about 5 to 16 m(exp 2)/g and primarily dependent upon ambient RH. However, the total scattering coefficient per total fine mass was far less variable at about 4+/- 0.7 m(exp 2)/g. A subsequent descent through a Saharan dust layer located above the pollution aerosol layer revealed that both layers contributed similarly to aerosol optical depth. The scattering per unit mass of the coarse aged dust was estimated at 1.1 +/- 0.2 m(exp 2)/g. The large difference (50%) in measured and calculated optical depth for the dust layer exceeded measurements.

Valero, Francisco P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The FU Orionis Outburst as a Thermal Disk Accretion Event: Detailed Calculations and Comparison to Observations

FU Orionis outbursts are temporary large increases in luminosity: x (40 - 250) thought to occur repeatedly in all low mass young stellar systems. We discuss detailed calculations of viscous accretion disks suggesting that FU Ori events signify the existence of a protostellar disk transporting mass at a rate of (1 - 10) x 10(exp 6) solar mass / yr, in agreement with theoretical and observational estimates of molecular cloud core collapse rates. Accretion through the inner edge of disks subject to outburst is self-regulated through the thermal ionization instability such that long periods (approx. 1000 yrs) of low mass flux: (1 - 10) x 10(exp -5) solar mass / yr, are punctuated by short periods (approx. 100 yrs) of high mass flux: (1-10) x 10(exp -5) solar mass / yr. The unstable region of the disk extends radially only to a distance of approx. = 1/4 AU. Beyond this region matter is transported stably at the infall rate. In systems for which M(sum *) = 1 solar mass with an inner disk edge of 3 solar radius, the critical rate for outbursts is 5 x 10(exp -7) solar mass / yr independent of the magnitude of the viscous ce parameter consistent with estimates of boundary layer mass flux in T Tauri stars. We use timescales of observed outbursts to constrain the magnitude of the alpha parameter to be 10(exp -4) where hydrogen is neutral and 10(exp -3) where ionized. Light curves of V1515 Cyg, FU Ori, and V1057 Cya are reproduced; the latter two require application of a small perturbation in surface density to produce observed rapid rise times. Detailed reply is made to objections to the accretion disk model for outbursts. Comparison to observations are made of time dependent spectral energy distributions, colors, and line-width velocity evolution.

Bell, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Study of a Magnetic Cloud Propagating through Large-Amplitude Alfvén Waves

We discuss Wind observations of a long and slow magnetic cloud (MC) propagating through large-amplitude Alfvén waves (LAAWs). The MC axis has a strong component along GSE X, as also confirmed by a Grad-Shafranov reconstruction. It is overtaking the solar wind at a speed roughly equal to the upstream Alfvén speed, leading to a weak shock wave âLij17 hrs. ahead. We give evidence to show that the nominal sheath region is populated by LAAWs: (i) a well-defined deHoffman-Teller frame in which there is excellent correlation between the field and flow vectors, (ii) constant field and total pressure, and (iii) an Alfvén ratio (i.e. ratio of kinetic-to-magnetic energy of the fluctuations) near unity at frequencies much lower than the ion cyclotron frequency in the spacecraft frame. In the region where the LAAWs approach the MCâAZs front boundary there are field and flow discontinuities. At the first, magnetic reconnection is taking place, as deduced from a stress balance test (Walen test). This severs connection of some field lines to the Sun and the solar wind strahl disappears. There follows a aLij2-hour interval where the magnetic field strength is diminished while pressure balance is maintained. Here the bi-directionality of the suprathermal electron flows is intermittently disrupted. This interval ends with a slow expansion fan downstream of which there is a dropout of halo electrons just inside the front boundary of the MC. This study illustrates an untypical case of a slow MC interacting with LAWWs in the slow solar wind.

C. J. Farrugia↗
NASA NTRS1973

Evaluate the application of ERTS-A data for detecting and mapping sea ice

The author has identified the following significant results. The results of the analysis of data collected during the spring and summer demonstrate that ERTS-1 imagery has a high potential for monitoring arctic sea ice conditions during the time for maximum ice extent through ice-breakup season. In the eastern Beaufort Sea area, the combination of ERTS-1 orbital overlap and a high incidence of cloud-free conditions during the spring assures a high frequency of repetitive satellite coverage. In the mid-Beaufort Sea, numerous fractures and leads can be identified, even in the early spring data. Ice features that can be identified include: development of fractures leading to the formation of distinct ice floes; growth and deterioration of leads; evidence of shearing movements of ice masses; formation of new grey ice within leads; distinction between grey, grey-white, and older forms of ice; and the deterioration of the ice surface evidenced by the formation of puddles, thaw holes, and drainage patterns. Ice conditions in the Bering Sea near St. Lawrence Island reported by aircraft observers participating in the Bering Sea Expedition are in close agreement with the ice conditions mapped from the corresponding ERTS-1 imagery. Ice features identified were: boundaries between grey ice and first year ice, shear leads, and occurrence of open water.

Barnes, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Formic and acetic acid over the central Amazon region, Brazil. I - Dry season

The concentrations of formic and acetic acids in the gas phase, atmospheric aerosol, and rainwater samples collected in Amazonia at ground level and in the atmosphere during the Amazon Boundary Layer Experiment in July/August 1985 were analyzed by ion exchange chromatography. The diurnal behavior of both acids at ground level and their vertical distribution in the forest canopy point to the existence of vegetative sources as well as to production by chemical reactions in the atmosphere. The concentrations of formic and acetic acids in the gas phase were about 2 orders of magnitude higher than the corresponding concentrations in the atmospheric aerosol. In rainwater, the total formate and acetate represented about one half of the anion equivalents, in contrast to less than 10 percent of the soluble anionic equivalents contributed by these acids in the atmospheric aerosol. The observed levels of these ions in rainwater are considered to be the result of a combination of chemical reactions in hydrometeors and the scavenging of the gaseous acids by cloud droplets.

Andreae, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Mesoscale variability of free tropospheric humidity near San Nicolas Island during FIRE

Humidity variability at the top of the marine boundary layer (MBL) and in the free troposphere was examined using a variety of measurements taken on and around San Nicolas Island (SNI) during the FIRE IFO in July, 1987. Doppler wind profiler reflectivity recorded at two minute time resolution has provided the most continuous record and detail of small scale humidity fluctuations. Rawinsonde data were available from both an island site and the research vessel Point Sur. The information extractable from these sources is somewhat limited due to the frequency of launches (3 to 4/day at SNI and 6/day on the Point Sur). Some additional data were available from instrumented aircraft although scheduling flights in the neighborhood of the island was difficult due to restrictions on the air space. Other relevant data were collected at SNI near the radar and rawinsonde launch sites. A continuous record of cloud base altitude was logged by a ceilometer. Doppler acoustic sounder (sodar) reflectivity data provided a good record of inversion height. The sodar also monitored turbulent temperature fluctuations in the MBL. A small ground station recorded hourly averages of solar irradiance and downward longwave irradiance. The analysis in progress of the various data sets for two adjacent two day periods from 11 July to 14 July is described. The earlier period was chosen because the marine inversion was unusually high and there was increased frequency of rawinsonde launches at SNI. The later period was chosen because of the significant descent with time of an elevated inversion indicated by the radar data. Throughout the four day period, but especially in the first half, the turbulent humidity structure calculated from Doppler radar reflectivity shows excellent agreement with humidity profiles evaluated from rawinsonde data.

White, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evaluating the design of an earth radiation budget instrument with system simulations. Part 2: Minimization of instantaneous sampling errors for CERES-I

Much of the new record of broadband earth radiation budget satellite measurements to be obtained during the late 1990s and early twenty-first century will come from the dual-radiometer Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument (CERES-I) flown aboard sun-synchronous polar orbiters. Simulation studies conducted in this work for an early afternoon satellite orbit indicate that spatial root-mean-square (rms) sampling errors of instantaneous CERES-I shortwave flux estimates will range from about 8.5 to 14.0 W/m on a 2.5 deg latitude and longitude grid resolution. Rms errors in longwave flux estimates are only about 20% as large and range from 1.5 to 3.5 W/sq m. These results are based on an optimal cross-track scanner design that includes 50% footprint overlap to eliminate gaps in the top-of-the-atmosphere coverage, and a 'smallest' footprint size to increase the ratio in the number of observations lying within to the number of observations lying on grid area boundaries. Total instantaneous measurement error also depends on the variability of anisotropic reflectance and emission patterns and on retrieval methods used to generate target area fluxes. Three retrieval procedures from both CERES-I scanners (cross-track and rotating azimuth plane) are used. (1) The baseline Earth Radiaton Budget Experiment (ERBE) procedure, which assumes that errors due to the use of mean angular dependence models (ADMs) in the radiance-to-flux inversion process nearly cancel when averaged over grid areas. (2) To estimate N, instantaneous ADMs are estimated from the multiangular, collocated observations of the two scanners. These observed models replace the mean models in computation of satellite flux estimates. (3) The scene flux approach, conducts separate target-area retrievals for each ERBE scene category and combines their results using area weighting by scene type. The ERBE retrieval performs best when the simulated radiance field departs from the ERBE mean models by less than 10%. For larger perturbations, both the scene flux and collocation methods produce less error than the ERBE retrieval. The scene flux technique is preferable, however, because it involves fewer restrictive assumptions.

Stowe, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tropospheric Trace Gas Interactions with Aerosols

Tropospheric aerosols are of considerable environmental importance. They modify the radiative budget of Earth by scattering and absorbing radiation, and by providing nuclei for cloud formation. Additionally, they provide surfaces for heterogeneous and multiphase reactions that affect tropospheric chemistry. For example, Dentener and Crutzen (1993) showed that reactions of N2O5 and NO3 with sulfate aerosols may significantly alter the tropospheric concentrations of NO(x), O3, and OH by converting NOx to HNO3 which is rapidly removed by precipitation. Zhang et al. (1994) assumed these same reactions would occur on dust aerosols and showed that dust outbreaks may reduce NO(x) levels by up to 50%. Dentener et al. (1996) studied the possible effect of reactions on dust on sulfate, nitrate, and O3 concentration. Heterogeneous and multiphase reactions on aerosols may also perturb the sulfur cycle the chlorine cycle and the bromine cycle. Because these reactions can release free chlorine and free bromine they might lead to the destruction of ozone in the marine boundary layer that may be important to include in models of tropospheric chemistry. The goal of our proposed work is to examine the role of heterogeneous and multiphase reactions in the tropospheric cycles of reactive nitrogen and sulfur.

Penner, Joyce E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

High-Resolution NU-WRF Simulations of a Deep Convective-Precipitation System During MC3E: Comparisons Between Goddard Microphysics Schemes and Observations - Part 1

The Goddard microphysics scheme was recently improved by adding a 4th ice class (frozen dropshail). This new 4ICE scheme was implemented and tested in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) for an intense continental squall line and a moderate,less-organized continental case. Simulated peak radar reflectivity profiles were improved both in intensity and shape for both cases as were the overall reflectivity probability distributions versus observations. In this study, the new Goddard 4ICE scheme is implemented into the regional-scale NASA Unified - Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF) and tested on an intense mesoscale convective system that occurred during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The NU42WRF simulated radar reflectivities, rainfall intensities, and vertical and horizontal structure using the new 4ICE scheme agree as well as or significantly better with observations than when using previous versions of the Goddard 3ICE (graupel or hail) schemes. In the 4ICE scheme, the bin microphysics-based rain evaporation correction produces more erect convective cores, while modification of the unrealistic collection of ice by dry hail produces narrow and intense cores, allowing more slow-falling snow to be transported rearward. Together with a revised snow size mapping, the 4ICE scheme produces a more horizontally stratified trailing stratiform region with a broad, more coherent light rain area. In addition, the NU-WRF 4ICE simulated radar reflectivity distributions are consistent with and generally superior to those using the GCE due to the less restrictive open lateral boundaries

Regional Scale Model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Convective Transport to the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Over the Asian Summer Monsoon as Observed During the 2022 ACCLIP Airborne Campaign

Deep convection in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rapidly transports boundary layer pollutants including ozone-depleting substances into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The confinement of the seasonal anticyclonic circulation in the UTLS over Asia initially traps the pollutants near the tropopause level, but air masses are subsequently transported throughout the global stratosphere and impact Earth’s climate. Characterizing the transport pathways and processes of these pollutants are critical for identifying source regions and quantifying regional contributions to global stratospheric concentrations. The Asian summer monsoon Chemical and Climate Impact Project (ACCLIP) was conducted in summer 2022 using two high-altitude aircraft (NSF NCAR Gulfstream V and the NASA WB-57) to obtain UTLS chemical composition and aerosol distribution for characterizing the impact of the ASM on global chemistry and climate. Backward trajectories from ACCLIP flight tracks were traced through time-varying, satellite-derived global convective cloud top altitude fields to investigate the convective air mass origins of the sampled air parcels. Analyses reveal that air masses lofted by convection within the ASM (South Asian summer monsoon) and near the edge of the of the ASM anticyclone (East Asian summer monsoon) contributed to the airborne observations. In this study, we present a summary of the transport statistics of UTLS air masses sampled during ACCLIP and discuss the implications of these results on our understanding of the role of ASM in global constituent transport.

Convective↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Dependence of Cirrus Gamma Size Distributions Expressed as Volumes in N(sub 0)-Lambda-Mu Phase Space and Bulk Cloud Properties on Environmental Conditions: Results from the Small Ice Particles in Cirrus Experiment (SPARTICUS)

The variability of cirrus ice microphysical properties is investigated using observations obtained during the Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign. An existing approach that represents a size distribution (SD) as a single gamma function using an ellipsoid of equally realizable solutions in (N(sub 0), lambda, mu) phase space is modified to automatically identify multiple modes in SDs and characterize each mode by such an ellipsoid. The modified approach is applied to ice crystals with maximum dimension D greater than15 micrometers collected by the 2-D stereo and 2-D precipitation probes on the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet. The dependencies of N(sub 0), mu, and lambda from each mode, total number concentration, bulk extinction, ice water content (IWC), and mass median maximum dimension D(sub mm) as a function of temperature T and cirrus type are then analyzed. The changes in the observed codependencies between N(sub 0), mu, and lambda, bulk extinction, IWC, and D(sub mm) with environmental conditions indicate that particles were larger at higher T during SPARTICUS. At most two modes were observed in any SD during SPARTICUS, with the average boundary between them at 115 micrometers, similar to past studies not using probes with shatter mitigating tips and artifact removal algorithms. The bimodality of the SDs increased with T. This and the differences in N(sub 0), mu, and lambda between the modes suggest that particles with smaller D nucleated more recently than particles with larger D, which grew via vapor deposition and aggregation. Because smaller crystals, whose concentrations are uncertain, make marginal contributions to higher order moments, the use of higher moments for evaluating model fields is suggested.

Ellipsoids↗
NASA NTRS2005

Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.

Lambert, Winnie↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗