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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ambitious efforts on residual emissions can reduce CO 2 removal and lower peak temperatures in a net-zero future

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is expected to play a critical role in reaching net zero CO 2 and especially net zero greenhouse gase (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which the role of CDR in counterbalancing residual emissions can be reduced has not yet been fully quantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model to develop a 'Maximum Sectoral Effort' scenario which features global emissions policies alongside ambitious effort across sectors to reduce their gross GHG emissions and thereby the CDR required for offsets. We find that these efforts can reduce CDR by over 50% globally, increase both the relative and absolute role of the land sink in storing carbon, and more evenly distribute CDR contributions and associated side-effects across regions compared to CO 2 pricing alone. Furthermore, the lower cumulative CO 2 and nonCO 2 emissions leads to earlier and lower peak temperatures. Emphasizing reductions in gross, in addition to net emissions while disallowing the substitution of less durable CDR for offsets can therefore reduce both physical and transition risks associated with high CDR deployment and temperature overshoot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large Trees Dominate Carbon Storage in Forests East of the Cascade Crest in the United States Pacific Northwest

Large-diameter trees store disproportionally massive amounts of carbon and are a major driver of carbon cycle dynamics in forests worldwide. In the temperate forests of the western United States, proposed changes to Forest Plans would significantly weaken protections for a large portion of trees greater than 53 cm (21 inches) in diameter (herein referred to as “large-diameter trees”) across 11.5 million acres (~4.7 million ha) of National Forest lands. This study is among the first to report how carbon storage in large trees and forest ecosystems would be affected by a proposed policy. We examined the proportion of large-diameter trees on National Forest lands east of the Cascade Mountains crest in Oregon and Washington, their contribution to overall aboveground carbon (AGC) storage, and the potential reduction in carbon stocks resulting from widespread harvest. We analyzed forest inventory data collected on 3,335 plots and found that large trees play a major role in the accumulated carbon stock of these forests. Tree AGC (kg) increases sharply with tree diameter at breast height (DBH; cm) among five dominant tree species. Large trees accounted for 2.0 to 3.7% of all stems (DBH ≥ 1” or 2.54 cm) among five tree species; but held 33 to 46% of the total AGC stored by each species. Pooled across the five dominant species, large trees accounted for 3% of the 636,520 trees occurring on the inventory plots but stored 42% of the total AGC. A recently proposed large-scale vegetation management project that involved widespread harvest of large trees, mostly grand fir, would have removed ~44% of the AGC stored in these large-diameter trees, and released a large amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Given the urgency of keeping additional carbon out of the atmosphere and continuing carbon accumulation from the atmosphere to protect the climate system, it would be prudent to continue protecting ecosystems with large trees for their carbon stores, and also for their co-benefits of habitat for biodiversity, resilience to drought and fire, and microclimate buffering under future climate extremes.

21-inch rule↗
DOE OSTI2019

Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions Viewed through a Case Study in Bangladesh: Preprint

Many developing countries around the world have signaled their intention to transition their energy sectors to rely on cleaner sources of electricity generation for a variety of reasons that may include complying with their Nationally Determined Contributions (in support of the Paris Climate Agreement), increasing energy security, or reducing air pollution. Renewable energy resources are increasingly a cost competitive option for new electricity generation; however, nations must consider renewable energy potential if they wish to increase these technologies in their electricity generation mix. Yet, goal setting, policymaking, grid modeling, and investment decisions that will enable renewable energy development all depend on the existence and quality of renewable energy resource data. This paper aims to summarize the relationship between renewable energy data, analysis, and decision making for developing countries seeking to transition their energy sector and to consider Bangladesh as a case study of a country that has worked with development organizations and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop a national inventory of renewable energy resource data to enable critical decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and maintain or increase food production to 2050. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative synergies with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals has been difficult without direct comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined a series of 40 different options, implemented through land, value chain or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature’s Contributions to People (also known as ecosystem services) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. We find that a relatively small number of interventions show significant positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, agricultural diversification, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, management of invasive species, sustainable source, and reduced post-harvest losses. Several interventions show strong negative impacts on either SDGs, NCPs or in some cases, both; these include bioenergy and BECCS, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of benefits and trade-offs of comparative policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the most effective, or at the very minimum, benign interventions for implementation in specific contexts.

Mcelwee, Pam↗
NASA NTRS2024

Iona Ecological Conservation: Utilizing Earth Observations to Understand Landscape Patterns and Assist in Wildlife Management in Iona National Park, Angola

Following the end of the Angolan civil war in 2002, human and livestock populations have increased exponentially within Iona National Park. An ongoing drought since 2017 has brought these people and livestock into increasing competition with local wildlife for resources – highlighting a conservation challenge that will become more entrenched as the effects of anthropogenic climate change increase. In 2019, African Parks began co-managing Iona National Park in Angola with the Angolan government, hoping to enact scientifically grounded management strategies to meet this challenge. To accomplish this, African Parks needed contemporary and historic information on the spatial distribution of landcover types within Iona and adjacent areas. We constructed and applied a Random Forest classifier in Google Earth Engine to multispectral imagery gathered from Landsat 5, 7, 8 and Sentinel-1 and 2 to meet this need. Using the classifier, we generated a time-series of land cover maps between 1990–2023, from which landscape metrics and change detection analysis were calculated to show how certain habitats and formations had changed over time. The resulting maps have producer and user’s accuracies above 87% and show four broad landcover regions within the study area. Notably, we observed a decrease in the park’s diversity as per the Shannon Diversity Index – an index that considers the richness of classes, as well the evenness of their distribution. A lack of arid specific land cover indices and ground-truthed training data from earlier years limited the accuracy and resolution of our landcover maps. However, this project still demonstrates that Earth observations can be used to form the basis of conservation policy in arid environments, where ground-truth data may be difficult to obtain or non-existent.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2019

Solar soft cost ontology: a review of solar soft costs

The continued deployment of renewable energy is critical to the energy transition necessary for climate change mitigation. Since cost is one of the primary drivers of solar adoption, we must continue to reduce the cost of solar to hasten the transition to clean energy. Currently, solar soft costs account for 52%–70% of the cost of an installed residential solar photovoltaic (PV) system in the U.S. These costs are persistent and an increasing share of the costs, since hardware costs continue to decline. The consensus on a definition of soft costs is 'non-hardware costs', but defining something by what it is not does not tell us what it is, which makes it difficult to study and understand. To this end, we developed the solar soft cost ontology (SSCO) to provide a comprehensive view of the complex and variable knowledge domain of solar soft costs. In this work, we identify the main categories of solar soft costs, how they relate to each other, how that knowledge is created, shared, and acquired, and the relevant actors in the solar soft cost knowledge ecosystem. Developed by coding a corpus of nearly 130 academic articles, the resulting ontology in web ontology language (OWL) includes 136 classes and 87 properties. The SSCO can facilitate and enhance knowledge transfer of research findings and best practices within and between stakeholder communities, including researchers, practitioners, and policy makers, that seek to address solar soft costs. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications and use cases for the SSCO among this diverse stakeholder community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Frankfort 100 Solar Feasibility Study

In 2021, The city of Frankfort, Kentucky ("Frankfort," or "the City") committed to ambitious climate targets: 1. City Clean Electricity: 100% clean electricity for city government operations by the end of 2023, 2. City Clean Energy: 100% clean energy for city government operations by the end of 2030, and 3. Community Clean Energy: 100% clean energy community-wide by the end of 2040. In 2022, Frankfort partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for a Phase I study to identify pathways to achieve the City's first two goals of City Clean Electricity by 2023 and City Clean Energy by 2030 (Phase I). As recommended in the final Phase I report described (described below), NREL was asked to perform an initial feasibility study for a PV project to offset the electricity used by city government operations. This report evaluates the feasibility of utility-scale solar and identifies potential barriers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: Affordability for Sustainability

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is charged with delivering a new capability for human exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. But the SLS value is clear and codified in United States (U.S.) budget law. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability and will provide an overview of initiatives designed to fit within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat, yet evolve the 70-tonne (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through the competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface some 40 years ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on platforms such as the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. In parallel with SLS concept studies, NASA is now refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. space policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap, which reflects the mutual goals of a dozen member nations. This mission planning will converge with a flexible heavy-lift rocket that can carry international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids and Mars. In addition, the SLS capability will accommodate very large science instruments and other payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to configure the rocket for the mission. The SLS affordability plan includes streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture where the question Why? is often asked and the answer "Because we've always done it that way" is rarely heard. The SLS Program will deliver affordable space transportation solutions for the Orion Multi-Purpose Cargo Vehicle s first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021. As this briefing will show, the SLS will offer a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations.

May, Todd A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informed Investments in Clean Energy Technologies

Governments and companies face consequential decisions about allocating resources to the research, development, demonstration and deployment of energy technologies to meet environmental, economic and social goals. Here we discuss how research insights can inform and potentially improve these decisions to make effective use of limited resources and time in shaping the next-generation energy infrastructure. We outline three key research steps: forecasting technological change, relating investments to economic, social and environmental outcomes and informing decision-making processes. We recommend advances to address uncertainty as well as to make methods and results more practicable, emphasizing the importance of model validation, streamlining and interactivity. Progress has been made, yet further work is needed-for example, in the development of reduced-order, testable models and more comprehensive data collection. Overall, this research is beginning to inform decisions but could be adopted more widely by governments and the private sector to help support technological progress for energy affordability, equitable climate change mitigation, health benefits and other objectives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity demand in South Asia – data gaps and pathways for research and modeling

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions - economically and energy-wise in the world. However, there are significant uncertainties in how the energy demand would grow given the rapidly rising incomes, urbanization, industrialization, access to energy, warming climate and technological change. The transition to clean energy in the region is a priority and is critical to limiting emissions in the region and increasing regional energy security. The power sector will play an important role in decarbonization of energy systems, lowering emissions in other sectors through electrification. However, as existing end uses are scaled up more and new end uses are electrified, the temporal and spatial patterns of electricity consumption could change. These changes have implications for the magnitude, shape, and timing of peak demand, which in turn affects the power sector’s investments and operations, and ability to provide reliable power. In this report, we outline key uncertainties in demand growth that South Asian countries would face in the near to medium term, along with summarizing insights from stakeholder consultations we held over the past 6 months.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: A Flagship for Exploration Beyond Earth's Orbit

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. This fact drives the SLS team to find innovative solutions to the challenges of designing, developing, fielding, and operating the largest rocket in history. To arrive at the current SLS plan, government and industry experts carefully analyzed hundreds of architecture options and arrived at the one clear solution to stringent requirements for safety, affordability, and sustainability over the decades that the rocket will be in operation. This paper will explore ways to fit this major development within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017. It will explain the SLS Program s long-range plan to keep the budget within bounds, yet evolve the 70 metric ton (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through a competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface over 4 decades ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. NASA is refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. Space Policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap. Launching the Orion Multi-Purpose Cargo Vehicle s first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021, the SLS will offer a robust way to transport international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids, Lagrange Points, and Mars. In addition, the SLS will accommodate high-priority science experiments. SLS affordability initiatives include streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture that continually benchmarks its performance against successful ventures. As this paper will explain, the SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by harnessing business and technological innovations to deliver sustainable solutions for space exploration.

May, Todd↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Space Launch System: A Flagship for Exploration Beyond Earth's Orbit

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is making progress toward delivering a new capability for exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. This fact drives the SLS team to find innovative solutions to the challenges of designing, developing, fielding, and operating the largest rocket in history. To arrive at the current SLS plan, government and industry experts carefully analyzed hundreds of architecture options and arrived at the one clear solution to stringent requirements for safety, affordability, and sustainability over the decades that the rocket will be in operation. This paper will explore ways to fit this major development within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017. It will explain the SLS Program s long-range plan to keep the budget within bounds, yet evolve the 70 metric ton (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through a competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface over 4 decades ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. NASA is refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. Space Policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap. Launching the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle s (MPCV s) first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021, the SLS will offer a robust way to transport international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids, Lagrange Points, and Mars. In addition, the SLS will accommodate high-priority science experiments. SLS affordability initiatives include streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture that continually benchmarks its performance against successful ventures. As this paper will explain, the SLS is making measurable progress toward becoming a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations by harnessing business and technological innovations to deliver sustainable solutions for space exploration.

May, Todd A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Feasibility of Direct CO2 Conversion Technologies on Impacting Mid-Century Climate Goals

Recent IPCC modeling suggests that to limit global warming below 2 degrees C, "unprecedented" reductions in CO2 emissions will be required during the 2030-2050 time frame. The direct conversion of CO2 to fuels and chemicals using renewable electricity has garnered interest as one route to draw down emissions with the ability to synthesize products at a significantly lower carbon footprint than conventional methods. However, most direct CO2 conversion pathways are only in the early stages of development and face technical and market hurdles prior to scale-up, bringing into question what role they may play in influencing global CO2 emissions within this critical two-decade window. In this perspective, we highlight low-temperature electrolysis as a promising technology for direct CO2 conversion, including discussion on the products that could most impact global emission levels, and importantly, offer insight into the timeline, required advancements, and specific technical targets needed to successfully scale and deploy these technologies at the commercial level.

chemicals↗
DOE OSTI2022

State-Level Employment Projections for Four Clean Energy Technologies in 2025 and 2030

As states and local governments weigh how to spur economic growth, stimulate job creation, and simultaneously adapt to meet climate goals, modern energy codes, and energy demand, this report provides a simple and transparent method to estimate the size of the workforce needed to support modeled deployments for energy efficiency in buildings, stationary battery energy storage (BES), solar photovoltaics (PV), and land-based wind in 2025 and 2030. In addition to a straightforward estimation method, this report includes state-level job estimates for two different deployment scenarios: a business-as-usual scenario and a more accelerated deployment scenario. The scope of the technologies included in this report is limited to four key energy technologies within the power sector that have strong job growth prospects and widespread geographic deployment potential. Although the included technologies are not all-encompassing, they have generated specific interest from state energy offices across the nation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Data from Heat Pumps Installed in Juneau, AK

Heat pumps offer a great low carbon emission method to heat homes. Thermalize Juneau 2021 was a clean energy campaign that helped homeowners in Juneau, Alaska install heat pumps into their homes. Juneau is located near the climactic limit of many heat pumps, and we were interested in how well the heat pumps can function in cold climates. This was done by using Sense meters to remotely monitor the energy usage of 10 homes with heat pumps. The Sense meters are small devices that connect to the electrical panel and monitor the energy use of multiple appliances through machine learning. First, we recorded the energy usage of a heat pump in the lab using both the Sense meter and the existing lab datalogger. Both recorded very similar energy usage data which confirmed that the Sense meter can accurately measure the fluctuations in the heat pump energy use. Next, we looked at the energy data from the Sense meters in the homes with heat pumps and paired it with local weather data to see how well the heat pumps functioned in the cold weather.

Alaska↗