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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AMOC Stability in GISS-E2-1-G: A Case of Stochastic Bifurcation

A 10-member ensemble simulation using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2-4.5 future scenario, leading to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 stable AMOC-off climate states after 400 years of integration, despite identical forcing of each ensemble member. Ocean models have previously shown a tipping point where sufficient forcing (e.g. by freshwater inputs) can shut down the AMOC. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated this, either through hosing experiments or increased precipitation and warming at high latitudes due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability associated with sea-ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea following a slowing of the GHG concentration increase at the end of the twenty-first century. We believe this is the first time that a CMIP-class model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble.

GISS ModelE2.1↗
NASA NTRS1984

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Radiation flux tables for ICRCCM using the GLA GCM radiation codes

Tabulated values of longwave and shortwave radiation fluxes and also cooling and heating rates in the atmosphere for standard atmospheric profiles are presented. The radiation codes used in the Goddard general circulation model were employed for the computations. These results were obtained for an international intercomparison projected called Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM).

HARSHVARDHAN↗
NASA NTRS1988

Abrupt climate change and extinction events

There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

Crowley, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Rain attenuation measurements: Variability and data quality assessment

Year to year variations in the cumulative distributions of rain rate or rain attenuation are evident in any of the published measurements for a single propagation path that span a period of several years of observation. These variations must be described by models for the prediction of rain attenuation statistics. Now that a large measurement data base has been assembled by the International Radio Consultative Committee, the information needed to assess variability is available. On the basis of 252 sample cumulative distribution functions for the occurrence of attenuation by rain, the expected year to year variation in attenuation at a fixed probability level in the 0.1 to 0.001 percent of a year range is estimated to be 27 percent. The expected deviation from an attenuation model prediction for a single year of observations is estimated to exceed 33 percent when any of the available global rain climate model are employed to estimate the rain rate statistics. The probability distribution for the variation in attenuation or rain rate at a fixed fraction of a year is lognormal. The lognormal behavior of the variate was used to compile the statistics for variability.

Crane, Robert K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Longwave Radiative Flux Calculations in the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Data Set

A radiative transfer model developed to calculate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and downwelling longwave, surface flux (DSF) from the Television and Infrared Operational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Pathfinder Path A retrieval products is described. The model covers the spectral range of 2 to 2800 cm in 14 medium medium spectral bands. For each band, transmittances are parameterized as a function of temperature, water vapor, and ozone profiles. The form of the band transmittance parameterization is a modified version of the approach we use to model channel transmittances for the High Resolution Infrared Sounder 2 (HIRS2) instrument. We separately derive effective zenith angle for each spectral band such that band-averaged radiance calculated at that angle best approximates directionally integrated radiance for that band. We develop the transmittance parameterization at these band-dependent effective zenith angles to incorporate directional integration of radiances required in the calculations of OLR and DSF. The model calculations of OLR and DSF are accurate and differ by less than 1% from our line-by-line calculations. Also, the model results are within 1% range of other line-by-line calculations provided by the Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM) project for clear-sky and cloudy conditions. The model is currently used to calculate global, multiyear (1985-1998) OLR and DSF from the TOVS Pathfinder Path A Retrievals.

Mehta, Amita↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Calibration and Characterization of Earth Remote Sensing and Environmental Monitoring Instruments

The use of remote sensing instruments on orbiting satellite platforms in the study of Earth Science and environmental monitoring was officially inaugurated with the April 1, 1960 launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) [1]. The first TIROS accommodated two television cameras and operated for only 78 days. However, the TIROS program, in providing in excess of 22,000 pictures of the Earth, achieved its primary goal of providing Earth images from a satellite platform to aid in identifying and monitoring meteorological processes. This marked the beginning of what is now over four decades of Earth observations from satellite platforms. reflected and emitted radiation from the Earth using instruments on satellite platforms. These measurements are input to climate models, and the model results are analyzed in an effort to detect short and long-term changes and trends in the Earth's climate and environment, to identify the cause of those changes, and to predict or influence future changes. Examples of short-term climate change events include the periodic appearance of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean [2] and the spectacular eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the Philippine island of Luzon in 1991. Examples of long term climate change events, which are more subtle to detect, include the destruction of coral reefs, the disappearance of glaciers, and global warming. Climatic variability can be both large and small scale and can be caused by natural or anthropogenic processes. The periodic El Nino event is an example of a natural process which induces significant climatic variability over a wide range of the Earth. A classic example of a large scale anthropogenic influence on climate is the well-documented rapid increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide occurring since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution [3]. An example of the study of a small-scale anthropogenic influence in climate variability is the Atlanta Land-use Analysis Temperature and Air-quality (ATLANTA) project [4]. This project has found that the replacement of trees and vegetation with concrete and asphalt in Atlanta, Georgia, and its environs has created a microclimate capable of producing wind and thunderstorms. A key objective of climate research is to be able to distinguish the natural versus human roles in climate change and to clearly communicate those findings to those who shape and direct environmental policy.

Butler, James J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from fourteen chemistry-climate models. There is general agreement among the models at the broadest levels, showing column ozone decreasing at all latitudes from 1960 to around 2000, then increasing at all latitudes over the first half of the 21st century, and latitudinal variations in the rate of increase and date of return to historical values. In the second half of the century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off or even decrease depending on the latitude, resulting in variable dates of return to historical values at latitudes where column ozone has declined below those levels. Separation into partial column above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely due to differences in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels before the end of the century, although there is a spread among the models in dates that ozone returns to historical values. Using multiple linear regression, we find decreasing halogens and increasing greenhouse gases contribute almost equally to increases in the upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere an increase in tropical upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in all models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century and returns to 1960 levels.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

meteoric inputfunction↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improving the Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in the United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day Information

Wheat is themost important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely production forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop typemasks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel (area within the CMG pixel occupied by wheat), and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: the Unites States (US), Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest), while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Production↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AI Foundation Models for Science: An Open Collaborative Initiative

Foundation Models (FMs), AI models designed to replace task-specific models, are increasingly being recognized for their versatility across numerous downstream applications. These models, trained using self-supervised techniques on any type of sequence data, circumvent the need for large annotated datasets, a major bottleneck in traditional AI model development. FMs can be applied to downstream tasks using few-shot learning and fine-tuning, significantly reducing the need for large labeled training datasets and computational resources. However, the development of FMs requires substantial resources, including access to data and compute power, expertise in the latest models, and specialized scientific knowledge for systematic evaluation. It is challenging for a single group to possess all these capabilities. To address this, NASA IMPACT has initiated an open collaborative effort, leveraging partnerships with the private sector and other groups within and outside NASA, to jointly build FMs. The overarching goal is to develop a consistent and collaborative approach to building FMs for high-value science datasets. This initiative has fostered collaboration within NASA and with external partners, including IBM Research, Clark University, DOE’s ORNL, ESA, and USGS. The effort focuses on identifying key datasets with a wide range of downstream applications, pretraining and building FMs using modified transformer architectures, evaluating compute infrastructure needs, and sharing models, pretraining and fine-tuning code, and data with the community. Furthermore, it aims to train the Earth science community to fine-tune these models for various downstream applications. Our initial effort resulted in the creation of a 100 million parameter HLS Geospatial Model within six months, which was released on HuggingFace. We are now expanding our scope to include data from weather and climate models and investigating multimodal models. We invite those interested in participating in this effort to join us by sharing their use cases, expertise, or data.

Rahul Ramachandran↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of Modeled Precipitation in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones Using IMERG

Using the high spatial and temporal resolution precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), extratropical cyclone precipitation is evaluated in two reanalyses and two climate models. Based on cyclone-centered composites, all four models overestimate precipitation in the western subsiding and dry side of the cyclones, and underestimate the precipitation in the eastern ascending and moist side. By decomposing the composites into frequency of occurrence and intensity (mean precipitation rate when precipitating), the analysis reveals a tendency for all four models to overestimate frequency and underestimate intensity, with the former issue dominating in the western half and the latter in the eastern half of the cyclones. Differences in frequency are strongly dependent on cyclone environmental moisture, while the differences in intensity are strongly impacted by the strength of ascent within the cyclone. There are some uncertainties associated with the observations: IMERG might under-report frozen precipitation and possibly exaggerate rates in vigorously ascending regions. Nevertheless, the analysis suggests that all models produce extratropical cyclone precipitation too often and too lightly. These biases have consequences when evaluating the changes in precipitation characteristics with changes in cyclone properties: the models disagree on the magnitude of the change in precipitation intensity with a change in environmental moisture and in precipitation frequency with a change in cyclone strength. This complicates accurate predictions of precipitation changes in a changing climate.

Catherine M Naud↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Vertical Extent of the Influence of the Land Surface Boundary on the Atmosphere Above

Heterogeneities in the land surface type on scales smaller than the typical General Circulation Model (GMC) grid size have long presented a challenge to properly modelling the impact of the subgrid scale variability on the grid scale. In particular, at some height above the heterogeneous vegetated surface the atmospheric properties (temperature, humidity, for example) become homogenized. This is an issue with implications for climate modelling as well as for the optimal use of field data for climate studies. There is evidence that the influence of the soil and/or vegetation properties extends well beyond the atmospheric surface layer. The present study is aimed at understanding the implications of this influence for a GCM's description of the coupling at the earth-atmosphere interface.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS1983

Simple energy balance model resolving the seasons and the continents - Application to the astronomical theory of the ice ages

An analysis is undertaken of the properties of a one-level seasonal energy balance climate model having explicit, two-dimensional land-sea geography, where land and sea surfaces are strictly distinguished by the local thermal inertia employed and transport is governed by a smooth, latitude-dependent diffusion mechanism. Solutions of the seasonal cycle for the cases of both ice feedback exclusion and inclusion yield good agreements with real data, using minimal turning of the adjustable parameters. Discontinuous icecap growth is noted for both a solar constant that is lower by a few percent and a change of orbital elements to favor cool Northern Hemisphere summers. This discontinuous sensitivity is discussed in the context of the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, and the associated branch structure is shown to be analogous to the 'small ice cap' instability of simpler models.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A comparison of observed (HALOE) and modeled (CCM2) methane and stratospheric water vapor

Recent measurements (21 September-15 October 1992) of methane and water vapor by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are compared with model results for the same season from a troposphere-middle atmosphere version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM2). Several important features of the two constituent fields are well reproduced by the CCM2, despite the use of simplified methane photochemistry in the CCM2 and some notable differences between the model's zonal mean circulation and climatology. Observed features simulated by the model include the following: 1) subsidence over a deep layer in the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex; 2) widespread dehydration in the polar vortex; and 3) existence of a region of low water vapor mixing ratios extending from the Antarctic into the Northern Hemisphere tropics, which suggests that Antarctic dehydration contributes to midlatitude and tropical dryness in the stratosphere.

Mote, Philip W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of Cirrus Cloud Simulations Using ARM Data - Development of a Case Study Data Set

Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) provide an effective linkage in terms of parameters and scales between observations and the parametric treatments of clouds in global climate models (GCMs). They also represent the best understanding of the physical processes acting to determine cloud system lifecycle. The goal of this project is to improve state-of-the-art CRMs used for studies of cirrus clouds and to establish a relative calibration with GCMs through comparisons among CRMs, single column model (SCM) versions of the GCMs, and observations. This project will compare and evaluate a variety of CRMs and SCMs, under the auspices of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2), using ARM data acquired at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. This poster will report on progress in developing a suitable WG2 case study data set based on the September 26, 1996 ARM IOP case - the Hurricane Nora outflow case. The environmental data (input) will be described as well as the wealth of validating cloud observations. We plan to also show results of preliminary simulations. The science questions to be addressed derive significantly from results of the GCSS WG2 cloud model comparison projects, which will be briefly summarized.

O'C.Starr, David↗
NASA NTRS1994

Liquid Water on Early Mars

We have used a simple climate model to determine the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars following up on the previous work of McKay and Davis. We used the weathering model of Pollack et al. to compute the pressure and temperature evolution of the atmosphere. We included the variability of the solar luminosity. Recent results which have considered the influence of CO2 condensation suggest that Mars could not have been kept warm (above 0 C) with only a dense CO2 atmosphere. New stellar evolution theories have suggested a more massive early sun to explain the lithium depletion in the sun and predict a warmer climate for early Mars. We have therefore modified the model of McKay and Davis to include the effects of CO2 condensation and the effect of a more massive early sun. Here we present the results of these additional effects on the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars. We find that the increased luminosity suggested for the early sun when mass loss is taken into account can provide a climate on early Mars that results in fluvial features existing over 500 million years.

Davis, Wanda L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The sensitivity of a general circulation model to Saharan dust heating

During the Northern summer, sporadic outbreaks of wind borne Saharan dust are carried out over the Atlantic by the tropical easterlies. Optical depths due to the dust can reach 3 near the African coast, and the dust cloud can be detected as far west as the Caribbean Sea (Carlson, 1979). In order to obtain insight into the possible effects of Saharan dust on the weather and climate of North Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, simulation experiments have been performed with the Climate Model of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The most recent version of the model is described by Randall (1982). The model produces realistic simulations of many aspects of the observed climate and its seasonal variation.

Randall, D. A.↗