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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

An Automated Approach to Reasoning Under Multiple Perspectives

This is the final report with emphasis on research during the last term. The context for the research has been the development of an automated reasoning technology for use in SMS (symbolic Manipulation System), a system used to build and query knowledge bases (KBs) using a special knowledge representation language SL (Symbolic Language). SMS interpreters assertive SL input and enters the results as components of its universe. The system operates in two basic models: 1) constructive mode (for building KBs); and 2) query/search mode (for querying KBs). Query satisfaction consists of matching query components with KB components. The system allows "penumbral matches," that is, matches that do not exactly meet the specifications of the query, but which are deemed relevant for the conversational context. If the user wants to know whether SMS has information that holds, say, for "any chow," the scope of relevancy might be set so that the system would respond based on a finding that it has information that holds for "most dogs," although this is not exactly what was called for by the query. The response would be qualified accordingly, as would normally be the case in ordinary human conversation. The general goal of the research was to develop an approach by which assertive content could be interpreted from multiple perspectives so that reasoning operations could be successfully conducted over the results. The interpretation of an SL statement such as, "{person believes [captain (asserted (perhaps)) (astronaut saw (comet (bright)))]}," which in English would amount to asserting something to the effect that, "Some person believes that a captain perhaps asserted that an astronaut saw a bright comet," would require the recognition of multiple perspectives, including some that are: a) epistemically-based (focusing on "believes"); b) assertion-based (focusing on "asserted"); c) perception-based (focusing on "saw"); d) adjectivally-based (focusing on "bight"); and e) modally-based (focusing on "perhaps"). Any conclusion reached under a line of reasoning that employs such an assertion or its associated implications should somehow reflect the employed perspectives. The investigators made significant progress in developing an approach that would enable a system to conduct reasoning operations over assertions of this kind while maintaining consistency in its knowledge bases. Significant accomplishments were made in the areas of: 1) integration and inferencing; 2) generation of perspectives, including wholistic ad composite views; and 3) consistency maintenance.

deBessonet, Cary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Roadmap to Cooperative Operating Practices for Strategic Conflict Detection and Resolution in the Upper Class-E Traffic Management Concept

As the governing body of flight operations in the highly anticipated emergent area of Upper Class E airspace (60,000 ft and above), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recognized the potential for a possible extensible traffic management system for new entrants into this domain. Following the successes with Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) and Advanced / Urban Air Mobility (AAM / UAM) Traffic Management programs, FAA put forth an initial concept of operations for supporting the start of the Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) concept. Like UTM and AAM / UAM, ETM is envisioned to also be a community-based, industry driven cooperative management concept. However, tailoring it to be adaptable to the atmospheric communication, navigation, and surveillance deficits, as well as the diverse vehicle and mission profiles operating in the ETM environment will be the challenge. As such, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center has been investigating several technologies that will help enable industry in the development of this new type of cooperative operating environment. These technologies are being prototyped and will be tested in a collaborative evaluation of an initial ETM system in late 2023. The evaluation will concentrate on building out ETM system technologies that will inform the participants regarding operational intent sharing, strategic conflict detection, and the resultant deconfliction process. In addition to the technical aspects, key roles and responsibilities will need to be defined. This will be done through exploring community-agreed upon Cooperative Operating Practices (COPs) that include procedures and capabilities to aid in timely, strategic conflict identification and resolution to be developed during the evaluation. As an initial step to the evaluation, the ETM research team at NASA Ames solicited industry feedback on various aspects of ETM operations from subject matter experts. A virtual tabletop walkthrough session was held over a two-day period to follow a roadmap through the functional steps needed to build COPs, focusing on strategic conflict detection and resolution. Overall, the ETM tabletop provided insights into how the community wanted to instantiate the generation and sharing of operational intent, detect strategic conflicts and resolve those conflicts using a preliminary set of procedural community-agreed upon COPs.

Upper Class-E Traffic Management (ETM)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Extended Operation of Stirling Convertors at NASA Glenn Research Center

NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting development of free-piston Stirling conversion technology for spaceflight electrical power generation since 1999. GRC has also been supporting the development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) since 2006. A key element of the ASRG project is providing life, reliability, and performance data for the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). The Thermal Energy Conversion branch at GRC is conducting extended operation of several free-piston Stirling convertors. The goal of this effort is to generate long-term performance data (tens of thousands of hours) on multiple units to build a life and reliability database. Currently, GRC is operating 18 convertors. This hardware set includes Technology Demonstration Convertors (TDCs) from Infinia Corporation, of which one pair (TDCs #13 and #14) has accumulated over 60,000 hr (6.8 years) of operation. Also under test are various Sunpower, Inc. convertors that were fabricated during the ASC development activity, including ASC-0, ASC-E (including those in the ASRG engineering unit), and ASC-E2. The ASC-E2s also completed, or are in progress of completing workmanship vibration testing, performance mapping, and extended operation. Two ASC-E2 units will also be used for durability testing, during which components will be stressed to levels above nominal mission usage. Extended operation data analyses from these tests are covered in this paper.

Oriti, Salvatore, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

GOOML - Finding Optimization Opportunities for Geothermal Operations: Preprint

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) is a transferable and extensible component-based geothermal asset modeling framework that considers complex steamfield relationships and identifies optimization prospects using a data-driven approach. We have used this framework to develop digital twins that provide steamfield operators with an operational environment to analyze and understand historical and forecasted power production, explore new steamfield configuration possibilities, and seek optimal asset management for real world applications. The GOOML modeling software is built on a generic component-based systems framework that allows for both historical and forecast analysis. A GOOML model can perform historical data-assimilation using first-principal thermodynamics to create a meaningful data model. Historical production data can then be coupled with a forecast framework to train machine-learning models of steamfield components to predict future outputs. This modeling environment enables digital exploration of steamfield design configurations and operational scenarios. GOOML digital twins have been developed for steamfields in New Zealand and the United States representing differing power generation and field conditions. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Reinforcement learning experiments were conducted to demonstrate the ability to programmatically explore the operations space using machine learning agents. Our initial results are compelling; two to five percent increases in annual energy production were demonstrated by the GOOML models with no additional infrastructure build required. GOOML offers a new approach to geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and interaction with digital twins. Through application of these tools, operators will realize greater availability and higher net generation which will increase the cost effectiveness of geothermal energy projects.

access↗
DOE OSTI2026

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Digitalization of an experimental electrochemical reactor via the smart manufacturing innovation platform

The exponential increase in data produced over the last two decades has revolutionized the way we collect, store, process, analyze, model, and interpret information to improve profitability. Manufacturing is no exception. How- ever, Smart Manufacturing, the digital practice, organization, workforce, and infrastructure transformation for collection and deployment of data and models at scale and at all levels of manufacturing, is a complex, costly, and labor-intensive journey that is still seeing slow adoption. The Clean Energy Smart Manufacturing Innovation Institute (CESMII), a national Manufacturing USA public-private partnership sponsored by the Department of Energy, is addressing this scaled use of data and modeling in manufacturing. CESMII has focused on how to col- lect and use operating data for numerous applications that improve productivity, precision, and performance of manufacturing operations from factory floor to supply chain using process simulation, predictive analytics, mon- itoring and control, and real-time optimization. Because contextualized data are key, CESMII has developed the Smart Manufacturing Innovation Platform (SMIP) to lower the barriers to the data that are needed to accelerate data-based model building, improve data visualization, and more quickly gain insights. Reusable, standards-based ways of doing data collection, ingestion, and contextualization are particularly important for scaling access and use of data. The SMIP uses a standards-based definition and construct for reusable information models called an SM Profile. When an SM Profile is used in conjunction with the SMIP, the SMIP ensures the availability of contextualized, operational data for model building. The present work demonstrates Smart Manufacturing and the application of the SMIP for building several data-centered models for the operation and control of an ex- perimental electrochemical reactor that reduces carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) gas to valuable liquid and gas chemicals, such as alcohols, olefins, and syngas. We describe how the SMIP plays a central role in more effective model building and we demonstrate how the electochemical reactor can be controlled and optimized for the desired products. Use of the SMIP involves the transmission of real-time sensor measurements to a cloud resource so that the operating data are available to all model building experts. The data collection and transmission process is fully automated to greatly reduce the need for manual manipulation of the data. Data-driven machine learning models are used for advanced real-time state estimation, real-time optimization, and model-based feedback control for the reactor. The application models are implemented as a system to monitor the data flow and control the electrochemical reactor with a single visualization interface. SM Profiles are used to demonstrate reusability of the information models for the reactor and the instrumentation. The application packages, algorithms, and user interfaces developed are cast as Docker images in a library to facilitate reusability of the application models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual range estimation for total cost of ownership of modular process‐intensified chemical plants

Abstract Chemical companies have used modularization to reduce capital costs and project timelines, putting capital to work faster and lowering the risk of entering new markets. Nevertheless, the impacts of using modularization along with advanced technologies, such as process intensification, have not yet been fully realized, often due to the uncertain business risks associated with their implementation. Therefore, new methods are needed for quantifying the impact of modular chemical process intensification (MCPI) on the capital and operating costs of chemical plants to help build a business case for this novel approach. This article presents a new conceptual range estimation technique for total cost of ownership that addresses the deficiencies of existing methods for quantifying MCPI impacts. The incorporation of percentage range estimates was employed to allow for adaptability across various cost and size scales. This work also begins to elucidate how chemical engineering and construction firms can benefit from MCPI and identifies barriers that inhibit MCPI applications in the chemical industry.

Alhamouri, Khaled I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic field sensors for detection of trapped flux in superconducting radio frequency cavities

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are fundamental building block of modern particle accelerators. They operate at liquid helium temperatures 2-4 K to achieve very high quality factors 1e10-1e11. Trapping of magnetic flux within the superconductor is a significant contribution to the residual RF losses which limit the achievable quality factor. Suitable diagnostic tools are in high demand to understand the mechanisms of flux trapping in technical superconductors and the fundamental components of such diagnostic tool are magnetic field sensors. We have studied the performance of commercially available Hall probes, anisotropic magnetoresistive sensors and flux-gate magnetometers with respect to their sensitivity and capability to detect localized, low magnetic flux amplitudes, of the order of few tens of magnetic flux quantum at liquid helium temperature. Although Hall probes have the lowest magnetic field sensitivity (~96$ nV$/microT at 2 K), their physical dimensions are such that they have the ability to detect the lowest number of trapped vortices among the three type of sensors. Hall probes and anisotropic magnetoresistive sensors have been selected to be used in a setup to map regions of trapped flux on the surface of a single-cell SRF cavity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

OpenET: Filling a Critical Data Gap in Water Management for the Western United States

The lack of consistent, accurate information on evapotranspiration (ET) and consumptive use of water by irrigated agriculture is one of the most important data gaps for water managers in the western United States (U.S.) and other arid agricultural regions globally. The ability to easily access information on ET is central to improving water budgets across the West, advancing the use of data-driven irrigation management strategies, and expanding incentive-driven conservation programs. Recent advances in remote sensing of ET have led to the development of multiple approaches for field-scale ET mapping that have been used for local and regional water resource management applications by U.S. state and federal agencies. The OpenET project is a community-driven effort that is building upon these advances to develop an operational system for generating and distributing ET data at a field scale using an ensemble of six well-established satellite-based approaches for mapping ET. Key objectives of OpenET include: Increasing access to remotely sensed ET data through a web-based data explorer and data services; supporting the use of ET data for a range of water resource management applications; and development of use cases and training resources for agricultural producers and water resource managers. Here we describe the OpenET framework, including the models used in the ensemble, the satellite, meteorological, and ancillary data inputs to the system, and the OpenET data visualization and access tools. We also summarize an extensive intercomparison and accuracy assessment conducted using ground measurements of ET from 139 flux tower sites instrumented with open path eddy covariance systems. Results calculated for 24 cropland sites from Phase I of the intercomparison and accuracy assessment demonstrate strong agreement between the satellite-driven ET models and the flux tower ET data. For the six models that have been evaluated to date (ALEXI/DisALEXI, eeMETRIC, geeSEBAL, PT-JPL, SIMS, and SSEBop) and the ensemble mean, the weighted average mean absolute error (MAE) values across all sites range from 13.6 to 21.6 mm/month at a monthly timestep, and 0.74 to 1.07 mm/day at a daily timestep. At seasonal time scales, for all but one of the models the weighted mean total ET is within ±8% of both the ensemble mean and the weighted mean total ET calculated from the flux tower data. Overall, the ensemble mean performs as well as any individual model across nearly all accuracy statistics for croplands, though some individual models may perform better for specific sites and regions. We conclude with three brief use cases to illustrate current applications and benefits of increased access to ET data, and discuss key lessons learned from the development of OpenET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

JLAB LLRF 3.0 Development and Tests

The Jefferson Lab LLRF 3.0 system is being developed to replace legacy LLRF systems in the CEBAF accelerator. The new design builds upon 25 years of design and operational RF control experience, and our recent collaboration in the design of the LCLSII LLRF system. The new cavity control algorithm is a fully functional phase and amplitude locked Self Exciting Loop (SEL). This paper discusses the progress of the LLRF 3.0 hardware design, FPGA firmware development, User Datagram Protocol (UDP) operation, and recent LLRF 3.0 system tests on the CEBAF Booster cryomodule in the Upgrade Injector Test Facility (UITF).

Plawski, T. E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Flexible, Networked Lighting Control Systems That Reliably Save Energy in California Buildings

An important strategy to meet California's ambitious energy efficiency goals is to use innovative wireless communications, embedded sensors, data analytics and controls to significantly reduce lighting energy use in commercial buildings. This project developed a suite of networked lighting solutions to further this goal. The technologies include a platform for low-cost sensing, distributed intelligence and communications, the “PermaMote,” which is a self-powered sensor and controller for lighting applications. The project team also developed a task ambient daylighting system that integrates sensors with data-driven daylighting control using an open communication interface, called the “Readings-At-Desk” (RAD) system. To address the problem of building occupants being confused about how to operate traditional lighting control systems, the research team created content that could be the basis for a user interface standard for lighting controls. Finally, to address the difficulty of ensuring that advanced lighting control systems actually deliver their promised energy savings, the project team developed a new method for evaluating and specifying lighting systems’ performance. The research team validated these technologies in the laboratory, showing significant lighting energy savings, up to 73% for the PermaMote sensor system from occupancy control and daylight dimming features, compared to the same light source (LED replacement lamps) operated via simple on/off scheduling. The project team also developed a proposed standard lighting data model and user interface elements, which were contributed to the ANSI Lighting Systems Committee (C137) for standardization. Existing data models are incomplete and inconsistent, whereas the lighting-specific data model developed here is clear and comprehensive, to serve as a starting point for creating common, universally agreed upon semantic definitions of key lighting parameters, to promote interoperability. For the task on verifiable performance of lighting systems, the project team developed a more effective metric for capturing the actual energy impact of a lighting system over time — the energy usage intensity (kWh/ft2/year). Three commercial lighting systems were tested in FLEXLAB® using this new metric, and the tests show a wide range in the accuracy of the self-reported energy-use metric, from 0.5% to 28% error compared to direct measurement of lighting energy using dedicated submeters. Overall, the project team estimates that these advanced technologies can reduce California office lighting energy use by 20% (above and beyond normal advanced lighting controls mandated by Title 24), resulting in about 1,600 GWh/year in savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

TA-16-0303 Crystal Grow Lab Renovation

The LANL High Explosives (HE) Crystal Lab at TA-40 Building 12 is a unique, and nearly the sole, national resource for the growth and sample preparation of large HE single crystals and related materials. This work has outgrown is current facility and is in dire need of both additional space and modern lab technology. The goal of this project is to renovate the 1950’s era building TA-16-303 to accommodate these operations and successfully relocate them from TA-40-12. Phase 1 of this project, completed in May of 2018, was to de-energize the facility and perform cleanup / remediation activities. Phase 2, the actual renovation of the facility, is currently underway and scheduled to achieve Occupancy by September of 2020.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles Modeling and Design of Solid-State Interfaces for the Protection and Use of Lithium Metal Anodes

Li-ion batteries are one of the most advanced energy storage technologies in use today. Li-ion batteries are used in a multitude of applications ranging from consumer electronics, medical devices, sensors and grid storage. However, improving the capacity and energy density delivered by current Li-ion technology requires advanced materials research into novel chemical systems. In this project we have focused particularly in the use of solid-state electrolytes with lithium metal electrodes. Research into all solid-state batteries (ASSB) with Li metal electrodes has significantly expanded in recent years, however most studies reported experimental findings, which left substantial room for theoretical and modeling work as a tool to understand and determine design principles allowing reliable and safe use of ASSBs with Li metal. Among the remaining obstacles preventing reliable use of ASSBs with a Li metal electrode, the stability of the interface between the solid electrolyte and Li metal, and the propagation/dendrite formation of Li metal and resulting mechanical degradation of the electrolyte are key phenomenon that are yet to be fully understood. In the current project we have addressed these two coupled phenomena using first principles calculations and mesoscale continuum modeling. We have obtained chemical and electrochemical stability windows for several solid electrolyte materials. Additionally, from mathematical and numerical modeling of Li protrusion and dendrite initiation during plating and stripping we have determined design criteria in terms of chemical, electrochemical, and mechanical properties and operating conditions for which stable deposition can occur. We also considered the effects of mixed electronic-ionic conduction in solid electrolytes, which has more recently been suggested as another important mechanism involved in ASSB failure. Throughout our work we have successfully addressed important questions necessary for the use of ASSB’s. We have determined guiding principles for materials properties and operating conditions necessary to operate ASSB’s. And have proposed novel solid electrolyte materials with predicted chemical stability an ionic conductivity. Although this represents significant progress in our understanding, open questions remain in order to fully develop reliable and safely operate ASSBs with Li metal. Future work, building on this project will require further experimental, theoretical and simulation efforts to address remaining questions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Document Management: A Focused Analysis on the Configuration Management Process at Y-12 National Security Complex

The configuration management process at Y-12 is a crucial process to ensure safe operations and compliance with Department of Energy (DOE) regulations and requirements. This process is evaluated utilizing systems-thinking methodology in order to understand the current operational flow, with the ultimate goal of building an easily understandable, representative model. This model offers insights on key areas of waste and provides a potential solution by modernizing rate limiting steps: a software implementation to update the traditional document management system and make it paperless. Stakeholders of the software implementation are identified in order to define characteristic requirements of an effective product and the anticipated benefit is evaluated. Ultimately, this project is an effort to increase the quality of life for all stakeholders, while improving the capacity, throughput, and effectiveness of a necessary process at Y-12.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical Documentation of Buildings 0460 and 0463 at Technical Area 16 (Volume 1)

This report provides documentation as a standard mitigation measure to the adverse effects that occurred by the demolition of theses historic properties. To mitigate the adverse effects, LANL has followed Section 106 process contained in 36 CFR 800.6, resolution of adverse effects. In addition to these regulations and within this report, LANL has implemented the standards for documenting and reporting in accordance with the A Plan for the Management of the Cultural Heritage at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico (CRMP), LA-UR-19-21590, formerly LA-UR-15-27624. These standard reporting measures include archival-quality digital photographs of the building’s interior, exterior, outside landscape; updating LANL historic building survey forms including 11 in. x 17 in. copies (in a reduced scale) of key original and as-built drawings; identification and documentation of historically significant equipment and artifacts; a comprehensive list of LANL architectural drawings; construction-history maps of TA-16 including current Register Eligible and Ineligible Buildings; and a detailed use history of the building and technical division associated with its operation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗