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HEP Software Foundation Community White Paper Working Group - Data Analysis and Interpretation

At the heart of experimental high energy physics (HEP) is the development of facilities and instrumentation that provide sensitivity to new phenomena. Our understanding of nature at its most fundamental level is advanced through the analysis and interpretation of data from sophisticated detectors in HEP experiments. The goal of data analysis systems is to realize the maximum possible scientific potential of the data within the constraints of computing and human resources in the least time. To achieve this goal, future analysis systems should empower physicists to access the data with a high level of interactivity, reproducibility and throughput capability. As part of the HEP Software Foundation Community White Paper process, a working group on Data Analysis and Interpretation was formed to assess the challenges and opportunities in HEP data analysis and develop a roadmap for activities in this area over the next decade. In this report, the key findings and recommendations of the Data Analysis and Interpretation Working Group are presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Predictive Maturity of Multi-Scale Simulation Models for Fuel Performance

The project proposed to provide a Predictive Maturity Framework with its companion metrics that (1) introduce a formalized, quantitative means to communicate information between interested parties, (2) provide scientifically dependable means to claim completion of Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VU) activities, and (3) guide the decision makers in the allocation of Nuclear Energy’s resources for code development and physical experiments. The project team proposed to develop this framework based on two complimentary criteria: (1) the extent of experimental evidence available for the calibration of simulation models and (2) the sophistication of the physics incorporated in simulation models. The proposed framework is capable of quantifying the interaction between the required number of physical experiments and degree of physics sophistication. The project team has developed this framework and implemented it with a multi-scale model for simulating creep of a core reactor cladding. The multi-scale model is composed of the viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) code at the meso-scale, which represents the visco-plastic behavior and changing properties of a highly anisotropic material and a Finite Element (FE) code at the macro-scale to represent the elastic behavior and apply the loading. The framework developed takes advantage of the transparency provided by partitioned analysis, where independent constituent codes are coupled in an iterative manner. This transparency allows model developers to better understand and remedy the source of biases and uncertainties, whether they stem from the constituents or the coupling interface by exploiting separate-effect experiments conducted within the constituent domain and integral-effect experiments conducted within the full-system domain. The project team has implemented this procedure with the multi- scale VPSC-FE model and demonstrated its ability to improve the predictive capability of the model. Within this framework, the project team has focused on optimizing resource allocation for improving numerical models through further code development and experimentation. Related to further code development, we have developed a code prioritization index (CPI) for coupled numerical models. CPI is implemented to effectively improve the predictive capability of the coupled model by increasing the sophistication of constituent codes. In relation to designing new experiments, we investigated the information gained by the addition of each new experiment used for calibration and bias correction of a simulation model. Additionally, the variability of ‘information gain’ through the design domain has been investigated in order to identify the experiment settings where maximum information gain occurs and thus guide the experimenters in the selection of the experiment settings. This idea was extended to evaluate the information gain from each experiment can be improved by intelligently selecting the experiments, leading to the development of the Batch Sequential Design (BSD) technique. Additionally, we evaluated the importance of sufficiently exploring the domain of applicability in experiment-based validation of high-consequence modeling and simulation by developing a new metric to quantify coverage. This metric has also been incorporated into the design of new experiments. Finally, we have proposed a data-aware calibration approach for the calibration of numerical models. This new method considers the complexity of a numerical model (the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameter uncertainty, and form of the model) and seeks to identify the number of experiments necessary to calibrate the model based on the level of sophistication of the physics. The final component in the project team’s work to improve model calibration and validation methods is the incorporation of robustness to non-probabilistic uncertainty in the input parameters. This is an improvement to model validation and uncertainty quantification stemming beyond the originally proposed scope of the project. We have introduced a new metric for incorporating the concept of robustness into experiment-based validation of numerical models. This project has accounted for the graduation of two Ph.D. students (Kendra Van Buren and Josh Hegenderfer) and two M.S. students (Matthew Egeberg and Parker Shields). One of the doctoral students is now working in the nuclear engineering field and the other one is a post-doctoral fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Additionally, two more Ph.D. students (Garrison Stevens and Tunc Kulaksiz) who are working towards graduation have been supported by this project.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Neutronics Calculation of Fast Reactor Using Modern Computing Systems

The possibility of using the LUCKY-A three-dimensional multiprocessor transport code as a neutronics module for the COREMELT integrated non-stationary code for performing safety analysis, which is used for fast sodium reactor safety validation, is discussed. In this application, more stringent requirements are imposed on the computing speed of the LUCKY-A code. To test LUCKY-A possibilities, a typical computational problem is examined in a formulation characteristic for the proposed use of the code. The possibilities of the code for parallelized calculations are shown, and a comparison is made with calculations performed with the MMKKENO and TRIGEX codes. The efficacy of a parallel computational process is investigated as a function of the number of computing kernels used.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

AR reactor neutronics multi-code validation*

The affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor is a tokamak fusion reactor concept currently under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. There are three important neutronics considerations for the operation of the ARC reactor: (1) breeding of enough tritium in the blanket to sustain the D–T reaction in the plasma; (2) ensuring low fluence on the superconducting toroidal field coils; and (3) assessing neutron volumetric heating in structural components. Here, this work aims to perform a validation of the neutronics analysis approach by code-to-code comparison. State-of-the-art software stacks are employed for the neutronics analysis of the ARC reactor, and a computer-aided design (CAD) model is used directly for Monte Carlo (MC) neutron transport calculations. Three software stacks, Attila-MCNP, OpenMC-DAGMC, and Shift-DAGMC, are used to perform neutronic analyses of a 90° sector CAD model of the ARC reactor. In conclusion, results show that the flux tallies calculated by the three software stacks are very close. Also, the volumetric heating and tritium breeding values have less than 0.6% relative difference between codes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRACE/PARCS analysis of the OECD/NEA Oskarshamn-2 BWR stability benchmark

On February 25, 1999, the Oskarshamn-2 NPP experienced a stability event which culminated in diverging power oscillations with a decay ratio of about 1.4. The event was successfully modeled by the TRACE/PARCS coupled code system, and further analysis of the event is described in this paper. The results show very good agreement with the plant data, capturing the entire behavior of the transient including the onset of instability, growth of the oscillations (decay ratio) and oscillation frequency. This provides confidence in the prediction of other parameters which are not available from the plant records. The event provides coupled code validation for a challenging BWR stability event, which involves the accurate simulation of neutron kinetics (NK), thermal-hydraulics (TH), and TH/NK. coupling. The success of this work has demonstrated the ability of the 3-D coupled systems code TRACE/PARCS to capture the complex behavior of BWR stability events. The problem was released as an international OECD/NEA benchmark, and it is the first benchmark based on measured plant data for a stability event with a DR greater than one. Interested participants are invited to contact authors for more information. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Long-Term Probability Distribution of Wind Turbine Planetary Bearing Loads (Poster)

Among the various causes of bearing damage and failure, metal fatigue of the rolling contact surface is the dominant failure mechanism. The fatigue life is associated with the load conditions under which wind turbines operate in the field. Therefore, it is important to understand the long-term distribution of the bearing loads under various environmental conditions. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's 750-kW Gearbox Reliability Collaborative wind turbine is studied in this work. A decoupled analysis using several computer codes is carried out. The global aero-elastic simulations are performed using HAWC2. The time series of the drivetrain loads and motions from the global dynamic analysis are fed to a drivetrain model in SIMPACK. The time-varying internal pressure distribution along the raceway is obtained analytically. A series of probability distribution functions are then used to fit the long-term statistical distribution at different locations along raceways. The long-term distribution of the bearing raceway loads are estimated under different environmental conditions. Finally, the bearing fatigue lives are calculated.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

SAM-ML: Integrating data-driven closure with nuclear system code SAM for improved modeling capability

Advanced reactors often involve complicated thermal-fluid (T-F) phenomena. Modeling such phenomena with the traditional one-dimensional (1-D) system code is a challenging task. The System Analysis Module (SAM), a modern nuclear system code, has developed a coarse mesh multi-dimensional (multi-D) flow model to capture the spatial effect of T-F phenomena in advanced reactors. As a coarse mesh solver, constitutive relations are required for SAM's multi-D model for unresolved fine-scale physics, such as turbulence. Here this work presents a novel approach that integrates neural networks as data-driven closure for SAM's multi-D flow model. The data-driven closure is trained with fine-resolution data to ensure its accuracy while maintaining a coarse mesh setup to ensure its efficiency and consistency with SAM. We demonstrate the applicability of this SAM-ML capability in an open volume thermal stratification problem, where a neural network model serves as the eddy viscosity closure. A customized interface between the neural network and SAM is developed to ensure flexible and efficient data exchange. The SAM-ML results demonstrate superior performance compared to SAM's built-in zero-equation eddy viscosity closure. The case study shows that although the generalization capability of the data-driven closure still needs to be improved for different transient case or different geometric setup, SAM -ML demonstrates good potential for challenging simulation problems with improved accuracy and computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of the VERA Core Physics Benchmark Problems using cosRMC Code

In reactor physics, two kinds of numerical methods are generally employed to solve the neutron transport equations, one of which is the deterministic method and the other one is the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo is widely used to provide reference solution because of its ability to deal with continuous energy cross sections and complex geometry. Just like any statistical process, the Monte Carlo method requires repetition to achieve a small relative uncertainty, and therefore may inevitably have larger simulation times than deterministic method. Fortunately, the great advancements of computer technology make it possible to apply Monte Carlo method in reactor core analysis. To promote nuclear power plant system design and simulation software self-reliance development, a Monte Carlo neutron/photon transport code cosRMC has been developed jointly by State Nuclear Power Software Development Center (SNPSDC) and Tsinghua University. The cosRMC is aimed at achieving full core calculations and analysis with high fidelity and efficiency by means of advanced methodologies and algorithms as well as high performance computing techniques. The cosRMC has many functions as criticality calculation, fixed-source calculation, burnup calculation, etc. In order to ensure its reliability, several types of verification and validation (V and V) work have been and are being carried out for cosRMC. The simulation results of cosRMC based on Problem 1 to 3 of VERA Core Physics Benchmark showed its good capability of 2D lattice and 3D assembly modeling. In this paper, some progressive verification results of multi-assembly and full core problems are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Methodology for fast detection of false sharing in threaded scientific codes

A profiling tool identifies a code region with a false sharing potential. A static analysis tool classifies variables and arrays in the identified code region. A mapping detection library correlates memory access instructions in the identified code region with variables and arrays in the identified code region while a processor is running the identified code region. The mapping detection library identifies one or more instructions at risk, in the identified code region, which are subject to an analysis by a false sharing detection library. A false sharing detection library performs a run-time analysis of the one or more instructions at risk while the processor is re-running the identified code region. The false sharing detection library determines, based on the performed run-time analysis, whether two different portions of the cache memory line are accessed by the generated binary code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Parameter Identification for Battery Abuse Reaction Kinetics Models Using DSC Analysis [SWR-23-87]

This code estimates the parameters as inputs for NREL’s abuse reaction kinetics model using Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) experimental data. The parameters for calculating the rates of abuse reactions among battery cell components at elevated temperatures include frequency factor, activation energy, and reaction orders. The least-squared method is employed to fit the reaction model to DSC data. The code is implemented in MATLAB.

Yang, Chuanbo↗

Sensitivity Analysis of OECD ATLAS A5.1 Test using MARS-KS code

The ATLAS was designed to model a reduced-height primary system of a typical APR1400 which was developed by the Korean Nuclear Industry. The ATLAS has the 1/2-height, 1/144-area and 1/288-volume scales for the APR 1400 and it is scaled for full pressure and temperature conditions. A benchmark test, test A5.1, was performed to analyze and quantify the extent of scaling distortion in the ATLAS, as a part of a OECD-ATLAS project. The SB-CL-32 test which was conducted using the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) of the Rig-of-Safety Assessment-V (ROSA-V) Program was selected as the counterpart test to address the scaling issue. The detailed description of the LSTF test facility and the SB-CL-32 test can be found in the literature. The objective of the A5.1 test is to investigate the thermal hydraulic phenomena during cold leg small break LOCA with steam generator secondary side depressurization as the Accident Management action. In addition to that, the scaling effect analysis of ATLAS was performed in the several viewpoints. In this study, sensitivity analysis of A5.1 test was performed using MARS-KS code. Several experimental conditions of A5.1 test were varied to study effects on the reactor coolant system during the SBLOCA transient. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Virtual prototyping of liquid metal blanket performance in fusion pilot plant

Liquid metal blanket is a dominant design option for the next step fusion devices responsible for harvesting energy from fusion reaction, and simultaneously producing fuel for the same reaction through tritium breeding. Liquid metal blankets introduce additional complexity to the design due to fluid motion, fluid structure interaction, and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) effects arising from the motion of the conducting fluid through the magnetic field. They are also directly affected by the plasma heat flux and neutronic fluence. PPPL is currently developing a virtual prototyping system for numerical analysis of the liquid metal blankets for future fusion devices. The system has a customized 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its core, allowing MHD flow and conjugate heat transfer analysis in blankets fluids and solids. The code was successfully used before for dual coolant blanket analysis [A. Khodak et al., Fusion Eng. and Des. 137 (2018)]. Recently the same code was modified to allow verified simulation of MHD flows at high Hartmann numbers of several thousand typical for blanket applications. CFD code receives volumetric heat source distribution from the neutronic analysis based on MCNP code. In addition, direct tritium breeding simulation will be performed allowing optimization of the blanket performance. 2D axisymmetric version of neutronics code will be used for rapid optimization, with 3D version employed for detailed analysis. The surface heat distribution on the plasma facing wall will be defined by the software HEAT allowing 3D modeling of the heat flux based on the magnetic field distribution including gyro-orbit effects. Results of thermal analysis are imported into structural analysis code also included in the system. Finally, direct import of CAD geometry will be used for analyzing all components and as a result design option can be efficiently optimized.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Disentangling Time-series Spectra with Gaussian Processes: Applications to Radial Velocity Analysis

Measurements of radial velocity variations from the spectroscopic monitoring of stars and their companions are essential for a broad swath of astrophysics; these measurements provide access to the fundamental physical properties that dictate all phases of stellar evolution and facilitate the quantitative study of planetary systems. The conversion of those measurements into both constraints on the orbital architecture and individual component spectra can be a serious challenge, however, especially for extreme flux ratio systems and observations with relatively low sensitivity. Gaussian processes define sampling distributions of flexible, continuous functions that are well-motivated for modeling stellar spectra, enabling proficient searches for companion lines in time-series spectra. We introduce a new technique for spectral disentangling, where the posterior distributions of the orbital parameters and intrinsic, rest-frame stellar spectra are explored simultaneously without needing to invoke cross-correlation templates. To demonstrate its potential, this technique is deployed on red-optical time-series spectra of the mid-M-dwarf binary LP661-13. We report orbital parameters with improved precision compared to traditional radial velocity analysis and successfully reconstruct the primary and secondary spectra. We discuss potential applications for other stellar and exoplanet radial velocity techniques and extensions to time-variable spectra. The code used in this analysis is freely available as an open-source Python package.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AutoSIM

AutoSIM enables several instances of an executable to run in parallel on a directory of input files and consolidate results, at scale on the world's fastest supercomputers. The software accomplishes this by balancing compression, transmission, and computation of input files, executables, and output files to allow scalable parallel runs of any executable. The software breaks-up simulations into a configurable number of "churns" or sequential instances of executable invocations on a configurable number of cores/node. It sends the executable, supporting files, and appropriate number of input files to each node for independent execution, and then transfers the executable results to a shared disk for post-processing analysis. This MPI-based code has been demonstrated using EnergyPlus, DOE's flagship whole-building simulation engine, but was architected to allow scalable runtime of any software for any application (e.g. sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification). The code has also been demonstrated to scale on the Titan supercomputer using 131,072 processors to run 524,288 EnergyPlus annual simulations, and write 45TB of data to disk in 68 mins 08 secs.

New, Joshua R↗

Hadron polarizability data analysis: GoAT

The A2 Collaboration at the Institute for Nuclear Physics in Mainz, Germany, is working towards determining the polarizabilities of hadrons from nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics through Compton scattering experiments at low energies. The asymmetry observables are directly related to the scalar and spin polarizabilities of the hadrons. Online analysis software, which will give real-time feedback on asymmetries, efficiencies, energies, and angle distributions, has been developed. The new software is a big improvement over the existing online code and will greatly develop the quality of the acquired data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a FHR

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts have expanded its application scope to include non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR technologies under Strategy 2 of the NRC's near- term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR has undergone a range of enhancements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) safety evaluations. The generic plant model is based on publicly-available FHR design information. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building leak rate and details of the cover-gas system) that are not described in the FHR references, the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The FHR model uses a TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-particle fuel pebble-bed reactor with a primary system rejecting heat to two coiled tube air heat ex changers. Three passive direct reactor auxiliary cooling systems provide heat removal to supplement or replace the emergency secondary system heat removal during accident conditions. Surrounding the reactor vessel is a low volume reactor cavity that insulates the reactor with fire bricks and thick concrete walls. A refractory reactor liner system provides water cooling to reduce the concrete wall temperatures. Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing reactivity control, the primary system decay heat removal and also a piping leak of the line to the coolant drain tank.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a Heat Pipe Reactor

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts have expanded its application scope to includ e non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR techno logies under Strategy 2 of the NRC?s near- term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR has undergone a range of enha ncements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform heat pipe reactor (HPR) safety evaluations. The generic plant mode l is based on a publicly-available Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Megapower design as modified in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A description. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building size and leak rate) that are not described in the LANL and INL references , the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The HP R uses high assay, low-enrichment uranium (HALEU) fuel with steel cladding that uses heat pipes to transfer heat to a secondary Brayton air cycle. The core region is surrounded by a stainless-steel shroud, alumina reflector, core barrel and boron carbide neutron shield. The reactor is secured inside a below-grade cavity, with the operating floor located above the cavity. Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing re activity control, the primary and secondary system heat removal, and the effectiveness of th e confinement natural circulation flow into the reactor cavity (i.e., a flow blockage).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MELCOR Accident Progression and Source Term Demonstration Calculations for a HTGR

MELCOR is an integrated thermal hydraulics, accident progression, and source term code for reactor safety analysis that has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) since the early 1980s. Though MELCOR originated as a light water reactor (LWR) code, development and modernization efforts over the past decades have expanded its application scope to include non-LWR reactor concepts. Current MELCOR development efforts include providing the NRC with the analytical capabilities to support regulatory readiness for licensing non-LWR technologies under Strategy 2 of the NRC's near-term Implementation Action Plans. Beginning with the Next Generation Nuclear Project (NGNP), MELCOR ha s undergone a range of enhancements to provide analytical capabilities for modeling the spectrum of advanced non-LWR concepts. This report describes the generic plant model developed to demonstrate MELCOR capabilities to perform high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) safety evaluations. The generic plant model is based on publicly available PMBR-400 design information. For plant aspects (e.g., reactor building size and leak rate) that are not described in the PBMR-400 references, the analysts made assumptions needed to construct a MELCOR full-plant model. The HTGR model uses a TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-particle fuel pebble-bed reactor with a primary system rejecting heat to a recuperative heat exchange r. Surrounding the reactor vessel is a reactor cavity contained within a confinement room cooled by the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). Example calculations are performed to show the plant response and MELCOR capabilities to characterize a range of accident conditions. The accidents selected for evaluation consider a range of degraded and failed modes of operation for key safety functions providing reactivity control, primary system heat removal and reactor vessel decay heat removal, and confinement cooling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗