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WHAATRR gilder is a PRANDTL-M flying weather and space radiation sensor laden vehicle for identifying weather hazards for aviation safety.
Satellite data provide global observations of many of the earths system processes and features. These data are valuable for developing scientific products that increase our understanding of how the earths systems are integrated. The water, energy and carbon cycle exchanges between the land and atmosphere are linked by soil moisture. NASAs Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides soil moisture and freeze thaw measurements from space and allows scientists to link the water energy and carbon cycles. In order for SMAP data to be best integrated into decision support systems, the mission has engaged with the stakeholder community since 2009 and has attempted to scale the utility of the data to the thematic societal impacts of the satellite product applications. The SMAP Mission, which launched on January 31, 2015, has actively grown an Early Adopter (EA) community as part of its applications effort and worked with these EAs to demonstrate a scaled thematic impact of SMAP data product in societally relevant decision support applications. The SMAP mission provides global observations of the Earths surface soil moisture, providing high accuracy, resolution and continuous global coverage. Through the Early Adopters Program, the SMAP Applications Team will spend the next 2 years after launch documenting and evaluating the use of SMAP science products in applications related to weather forecasting, drought, agriculture productivity, floods, human health and national security.
Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.
Traffic flow management seeks to balance the demand for National Airspace System (NAS) flight resources, such as airspace and airports, with the available supply. When forecasted weather blocks nominal air traffic routes, traffic managers must re-route affected flights for weather avoidance. Depending on the nature and scope of the weather, traffic managers may use pre-coordinated re-routes such as Playbook Routes or Coded Departure Routes, or may design ad hoc local re-routes. The routes of affected flights are modified accordingly. These weather avoidance routes will, of course, be less efficient than the nominal routes due to increased flight time and fuel burn. In current traffic management operations, the transition into a weather avoidance re-routing initiative is typically implemented more aggressively than the transition out of that initiative after the weather has dissipated or moved away. For example, strategic large-scale Playbook re-routes are sometimes left in place (as initially implemented) for many hours before being lifted entirely when the weather dissipates. There is an opportunity to periodically modify the re-routing plan as weather evolves, thereby attenuating its adverse impact on flight time and fuel consumption; this is called delay recovery. Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR) is a NASA-developed operational concept and associated decision support tool for delay recovery, designed to assist traffic managers to efficiently update weather avoidance traffic routes after the original re-routes have become stale due to subsequent evolution of the convective weather system. MFCR groups multiple flights to reduce the number of advisories that the traffic manager needs to evaluate, and also merges these flights on a common route segment to provide an orderly flow of re-routed traffic. The advisory is presented to the appropriate traffic manager who evaluates it and has the option to modify it using MFCRs graphical user interface. If the traffic manager finds the advisory to be operationally appropriate, he or she would coordinate with the Area Supervisor(s) of the sectors that currently control the flights in the advisory. When the traffic manager accepts the MFCR advisory via the user interface, the corresponding flight plan amendments would be sent to the displays of the appropriate sector controllers, using the Airborne Re-Routing (ABRR) capability which is scheduled for nationwide operation in 2017. The sector controllers would then offer this time-saving route modification to the pilots of the affected flights via datalink (or voice), and implement the corresponding flight plan amendment if the pilots accept it. MFCR is implemented as an application in the software environment of the Future Air traffic management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). This paper focuses on an initial subject matter expert (SME) evaluation of MFCR. The evaluation covers MFCRs operational concept, algorithm, and user interface.
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 microns with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS is designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast accuracy and improved understanding of climate processes. As with most instruments, the AIRS Point Spread Functions (PSFs) are not the same for all detectors. When viewing a non-uniform scene, this causes a significant radiometric error in some channels that is scene dependent and cannot be removed without knowledge of the underlying scene. The magnitude of the error depends on the combination of non-uniformity of the AIRS spatial response for a given channel and the non-uniformity of the scene, but is typically only noticeable in about 1% of the scenes and about 10% of the channels. The current solution is to avoid those channels when performing geophysical retrievals. In this effort we use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument to provide information on the scene uniformity that is used to correct the AIRS data. For the vast majority of channels and footprints the technique works extremely well when compared to a Principal Component (PC) reconstruction of the AIRS channels. In some cases where the scene has high inhomogeneity in an irregular pattern, and in some channels, the method can actually degrade the spectrum. Most of the degraded channels appear to be slightly affected by random noise introduced in the process, but those with larger degradation may be affected by alignment errors in the AIRS relative to MODIS or uncertainties in the PSF. Despite these errors, the methodology shows the ability to correct AIRS radiances in non-uniform scenes under some of the worst case conditions and improves the ability to match AIRS and MODIS radiances in non-uniform scenes.
Accurate characterization of the Earth's radiant energy is critical for many climate monitoring and weather forecasting applications. For example, groups at the NASA Langley Research Center rely on stable visible- and infrared-channel calibrations in order to understand the temporal/spatial distribution of hazardous storms, as determined from an automated overshooting convective top detection algorithm. Therefore, in order to facilitate reliable, climate-quality retrievals, it is important that consistent calibration coefficients across satellite platforms are made available to the remote sensing community, and that calibration anomalies are recognized and mitigated. One such anomaly is the infrared imager brightness temperature (BT) drift that occurs for some Geostationary Earth Orbit satellite (GEOsat) instruments near local midnight. Currently the Global Space-Based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) community uses the hyperspectral Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) sensor as a common reference to uniformly calibrate GEOsat IR imagers. However, the combination of IASI, which has a 21:30 local equator crossing time (LECT), and hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS; 01:30 LECT) observations are unable to completely resolve the GEOsat midnight BT bias. The precessing orbit of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS), however, allows sampling of all local hours every 46 days. Thus, VIRS has the capability to quantify the BT midnight effect observed in concurrent GEOsat imagers. First, the VIRS IR measurements are evaluated for long-term temporal stability between 2002 and 2012 by inter-calibrating with Aqua-MODIS. Second, the VIRS IR measurements are assessed for diurnal stability by inter-calibrating with Meteosat-9 (Met-9), a spin-stabilized GEOsat imager that does not manifest any diurnal dependency. In this case, the Met-9 IR imager is first adjusted with the official GSICS calibration coefficients. Then VIRS is used as a diurnal calibration reference transfer to produce hourly corrections of GEOsat IR imager BT. For the 9 three-axis stabilized GEO imagers concurrent with VIRS, the midnight effect increased the BT on average by 0.5 K (11 microns) and 0.4 K (12 microns), with a peak at approx.01:00 local time. As expected, the spin-stabilized GEOsats revealed a smaller diurnal temperature cycle (mostly < 0.2 K) with inconsistent peak hours.
The first of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series (GOES-R) satellites was launched in November 2016. GOES-R has been developed by NOAA in partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The satellite represents a quantum leap in the state of the art for geostationary weather satellites by providing data from a suite of six new instruments. All instruments were developed expressly for this mission, and include two Earth-observing instruments (the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)), two solar-viewing instruments (Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) and Extreme ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS)) and two in situ instruments (Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) and a magnetometer pair). In addition to hosting the instruments, GOES-R also accommodates several communication packages designed to collect and relay data for weather forecasting and emergency management. Accommodating the six instruments and four communication payloads imposed challenging and competing constraints on the satellite, including requirements for extremely stable earth and solar pointing, high-speed and nearly error-free instrument data transmission, and a very quiet electromagnetic background. To meet mission needs, GOES-R employed several technological innovations, including low-thrust rocket engines that allow instrument observations to continue during maneuvers, and the first civilian use of Global Positioning System-based orbit determination in geostationary orbit. This paper will provide a brief overview of the GOES-R satellite and its instruments as well as the developmental challenges involved in accommodating the instruments and communications payloads.
The first of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series (GOES-R) satellites was launched in November 2016. GOES-R has been developed by NOAA in partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The satellite represents a quantum leap in the state of the art for geostationary weather satellites by providing data from a suite of six new instruments. All instruments were developed expressly for this mission, and include two Earth-observing instruments (the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)), two solar-viewing instruments (Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) and Extreme ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS)) and two in situ instruments (Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) and a magnetometer pair). In addition to hosting the instruments, GOES-R also accommodates several communication packages designed to collect and relay data for weather forecasting and emergency management. Accommodating the six instruments and four communication payloads imposed challenging and competing constraints on the satellite, including requirements for extremely stable earth and solar pointing, high-speed and nearly error-free instrument data transmission, and a very quiet electromagnetic background. To meet mission needs, GOES-R employed several technological innovations, including low-thrust rocket engines that allow instrument observations to continue during maneuvers, and the first civilian use of Global Positioning System-based orbit determination in geostationary orbit. This paper will provide a brief overview of the GOES-R satellite and its instruments as well as the developmental challenges involved in accommodating the instruments and communications payloads.
Traffic flow management seeks to balance the demand for National Airspace System (NAS) flight resources, such as airspace and airports, with the available supply. When forecasted weather blocks nominal air traffic routes, traffic managers must re-route affected flights for weather avoidance. Depending on the nature and scope of the weather, traffic managers may use pre-coordinated re-routes such as Playbook Routes or Coded Departure Routes, or may design ad hoc local re-routes. The routes of affected flights are modified accordingly. These weather avoidance routes will, of course, be less efficient than the nominal routes due to increased flight time and fuel burn. In current traffic management operations, the transition into a weather avoidance re-routing initiative is typically implemented more aggressively than the transition out of that initiative after the weather has dissipated or moved away. For example, strategic large-scale Playbook re-routes are sometimes left in place (as initially implemented) for many hours before being lifted entirely when the weather dissipates. There is an opportunity to periodically modify the re-routing plan as weather evolves, thereby attenuating its adverse impact on flight time and fuel consumption; this is called delay recovery. Multi-Flight Common Routes (MFCR) is a NASA-developed operational concept and associated decision support tool for delay recovery, designed to assist traffic managers to efficiently update weather avoidance traffic routes after the original re-routes have become stale due to subsequent evolution of the convective weather system. MFCR groups multiple flights to reduce the number of advisories that the traffic manager needs to evaluate, and also merges these flights on a common route segment to provide an orderly flow of re-routed traffic. The advisory is presented to the appropriate traffic manager who evaluates it and has the option to modify it using MFCRs graphical user interface. If the traffic manager finds the advisory to be operationally appropriate, he or she would coordinate with the Area Supervisor(s) of the sectors that currently control the flights in the advisory. When the traffic manager accepts the MFCR advisory via the user interface, the corresponding flight plan amendments would be sent to the displays of the appropriate sector controllers, using the Airborne Re-Routing (ABRR) capability which is scheduled for nationwide operation in 2017. The sector controllers would then offer this time-saving route modification to the pilots of the affected flights via datalink (or voice), and implement the corresponding flight plan amendment if the pilots accept it. MFCR is implemented as an application in the software environment of the Future Air traffic management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET). This paper focuses on an initial subject matter expert (SME) evaluation of MFCR. The evaluation covers MFCRs operational concept, algorithm, and user interface.
The aircraft-induced climate impact has drawn attention in recent years. Aviation operations affect the environment mainly through the release of carbon-dioxide, nitrogen-oxides, and by the formation of contrails. Recent research has shown that altering trajectories can reduce aviation environmental cost by reducing Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential, a climate assessment metric that adapts a linear system for modeling the global temperature response to aviation emissions and contrails. However, these methods will increase fuel consumption that leads to higher fuel costs imposed on airlines. The goal of this work is to identify ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact reduction outweighs the increase in operational cost on an individual aircraft basis. Environmental cost is quanti ed using the monetary social cost of carbon. The increase in operational cost is considering cost of additional fuel usage only. For this paper, an algorithm has been developed that modi es the trajectories of ights to evaluate the e ect of environ- mental cost and operational cost of ights in the United States National Airspace System. The algorithm identi es ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact can be reduced and modi es their trajectories to achieve maximum environmental net bene t, which is the di erence between reduction in environmental cost and additional operational cost. The result shows on a selected day, 16% of the ights among eight major airlines, or 2,043 ights, can achieve environmental net bene t using weather forecast data, resulting in net bene t of around $500,000. The result also suggests that the long-haul ights would be better candidates for cost-ecient climate impact reduction than the short haul ights. The algorithm will help to identify the characteristics of ights that are capable of applying cost-ecient climate impact reduction strategy.
Between 1964 and 1978, NASA launched a series of seven Nimbus meteorological satellites which provided Earth observations for 30 years. These satellites, carrying a total of 33 instruments to observe the Earth at visible, infrared, ultraviolet, and microwave wavelengths, revolutionized weather forecasting, provided early observations of ocean color and atmospheric ozone, and prototyped location-based search and rescue capabilities. The Nimbus series paved the way for a number of currently operational systems such as the EOS (Earth Observation System) Terra, Aqua, and Aura platforms. The original data archive includes both magnetic tapes and film media. These media are well past their expected end of life, placing at risk valuable data that are critical to extending the history of Earth observations back in time. GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) has been incorporating these data into a modern online archive by recovering the digital data files from the tapes, and scanning images of the data from film strips. The digital data products were written on obsolete hardware systems in outdated file formats, and in the absence of metadata standards at that time, were often written in proprietary file structures. Through a tedious and laborious process, oft-corrupted data are recovered, and incomplete metadata and documentation are reconstructed.
This abstract summarizes the OSSE framework developed at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA/GMAO). Some of the OSSE techniques developed at GMAO including simulation of realistic observations, e.g., adding errors to simulated observations, are now widely used by the community to evaluate the impact of new observations on the weather forecasts. This talk presents some of the recent progresses and challenges in simulating realistic observations, radiative transfer modeling support for the GMAO OSSE activities, assimilation of OSSE observations into data assimilation systems, and evaluating the impact of simulated observations on the forecast skills.
An atmospheric wind vectors (AMVs) simulator was developed by NASA's GMAO to simulate observations from future satellite constellation concepts. The synthetic AMVs can then be used in OSSEs to estimate and quantify the potential added value of new observations to the present Earth observing system and, ultimately, the expected impact on the current weather forecasting skill. The GMAO AMV simulator is a tunable and flexible computer code that is able to simulate AMVs expected to be derived from different instruments and satellite orbit configurations. As a case study and example of the usefulness of this tool, the GMAO AMV simulator was used to simulate AMVs envisioned to be provided by the MISTiC Winds, a NASA mission concept consisting of a constellation of satellites equipped with infrared spectral midwave spectrometers, expected to provide high spatial and temporal resolution temperature and humidity soundings of the troposphere that can be used to derive AMVs from the tracking of clouds and water vapor features. The GMAO AMV simulator identifies trackable clouds and water vapor features in the G5NR and employs a probabilistic function to draw a subset of the identified trackable features. Before the simulator is applied to the MISTiC Winds concept, the simulator was calibrated to yield realistic observations counts and spatial distributions and validated considering as a proxy instrument to the MISTiC Winds the Himawari-8 Advanced Imager (AHI). The simulated AHI AMVs showed a close match with the real AHI AMVs in terms of observation counts and spatial distributions, showing that the GMAO AMVs simulator synthesizes AMVs observations with enough quality and realism to produce a response from the DAS equivalent to the one produced with real observations. When applied to the MISTiC Winds scanning points, it can be expected that the MISTiC Winds will be able to collect approximately 60,000 wind observations every 6 hours, if considering a constellation composed of 12 satellites (4 orbital planes). In addition, one of the main expected impacts of the MISTiC Winds concept is the ability to derive water vapor feature tracking AMVs below 500-400 hPa, an unique feature among the water vapor AMVs derived from the current Earth observing system.
High vertical resolution and accuracy of ozone data from satellite-borne limb sounders has made them an invaluable tool in scientific studies of the middle and upper atmosphere. However, it was not until recently that these measurements were successfully incorporated in atmospheric reanalyses: of the major multidecadal reanalyses only ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts') ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim/ERA5 and NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2) use limb ozone data. Validation and comparison studies have demonstrated that the addition of observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS (Earth Observing System) Aura greatly improved the quality of ozone fields in MERRA-2 making these assimilated data sets useful for scientific research. In this presentation, we will show the results of test experiments assimilating retrieved ozone from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS, 1978/1979) and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP, 2012 to present). Our approach builds on the established assimilation methodology used for MLS in MERRA-2 and, in the case of OMPS-LP, extends the excellent record of MLS ozone assimilation into the post-EOS era in Earth observations. We will show case studies, discuss comparisons of the new experiments with MERRA-2, strategies for bias correction and the potential for combined assimilation of multiple limb ozone data types in future reanalyses for studies of multidecadal stratospheric ozone changes including trends.
Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME's magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME's position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME's position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.
Since 2009, the ultra-wideband snow radar on Operation IceBridge (OIB; a NASA airborne mission to survey the polar ice covers) has acquired data in annual campaigns conducted during the Arctic and Antarctic springs. Progressive improvements in radar hardware and data processing methodologies have led to improved data quality for subsequent retrieval of snow depth. Existing retrieval algorithms differ in the way the air-snow (a-s) and snow-ice (s-i) interfaces are detected and localized in the radar returns and in how the system limitations are addressed (e.g., noise, resolution). In 2014, the Snow Thickness On Sea Ice Working Group (STOSIWG) was formed and tasked with investigating how radar data quality affects snow depth retrievals and how retrievals from the various algorithms differ. The goal is to understand the limitations of the estimates and to produce a well-documented, long-term record that can be used for understanding broader changes in the Arctic climate system. Here, we assess five retrieval algorithms by comparisons with field measurements from two groundbased campaigns, including the BRomine, Ozone, and Mercury EXperiment (BROMEX) at Barrow, Alaska; a field program by Environment and Climate Change Canada at Eureka, Nunavut; and available climatology and snowfall from ERA-Interim (ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis) reanalysis. The aim is to examine available algorithms and to use the assessment results to inform the development of future approaches. We present results from these assessments and highlight key considerations for the production of a long-term, calibrated geophysical record of springtime snow thickness over Arctic sea ice.
NASA conducted a survey in 2015 of stakeholders in industry, flight operators, and others to collect data on the most pressing air traffic management (ATM) issues impacting en route operations. Weather related delays and interruptions were identified as the most significant and costly problem impacting en route operations in today's system. Additionally, future traffic demands will place greater demands on the FAA's air traffic control system, necessitate a more efficient and integrated traffic management system and provide controller tools to leverage human productivity. Consequently, NASA is assembling a suite of integrated ground and aircraft-based technologies and decision-making aids under the Airspace Technology Demonstrations 3 (ATD-3) project to continuously search for more efficient weather-avoidance routes and to rapidly respond to weather changes and associated traffic management initiatives. These route efficiency enhancements are targeted at en route airspace and will enable continued use of en route and arrival metering in the presence of weather. NASA's Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) concept represents a subset of those technologies and focuses primarily on the cruise phase of flight. It leverages existing air traffic weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication and digital network technologies, and builds upon existing ATM automation to address the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. The potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings are significant. This concept of operations synopsis provides a detailed description of DWR, its potential benefits and notional implementation paths.
NASA's Multi Flight Common Route (MFCR) automation represents one element of those technologies focusing primarily on delay recovery in the en route phase of flight. Delay recovery is an attenuation of flight-time delay, accomplished by periodically revising weather-avoidance routing as the convective weather system evolves. MFCR is intended for use by Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) in Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs, or Centers) and traffic management specialists (TMSs) in the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC). MFCR leverages existing weather, airspace, and traffic data, as well as improvements in navigation, surveillance, communication, and digital information technologies, to build on existing ATM automation and address some of the shortcomings associated with strategic traffic flow management initiatives and weather forecasting uncertainties. These capabilities provide significant potential benefits in the form of time, fuel, and cost savings. The concept of operations described in this document describes MFCR functionality as delivered by NASA to the FAA in December 2017, including a list of potential enhancements that may be realized when the system is fielded.