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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Sampling errors in rainfall estimates by multiple satellites

This paper examines the sampling characteristics of combining data collected by several low-orbiting satellites attempting to estimate the space-time average of rain rates. The several satellites can have different orbital and swath-width parameters. The satellite overpasses are allowed to make partial coverage snapshots of the grid box with each overpass. Such partial visits are considered in an approximate way, letting each intersection area fraction of the grid box by a particular satellite swath be a random variable with mean and variance parameters computed from exact orbit calculations. The derivation procedure is based upon the spectral minimum mean-square error formalism introduced by North and Nakamoto. By using a simple parametric form for the spacetime spectral density, simple formulas are derived for a large number of examples, including the combination of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission with an operational sun-synchronous orbiter. The approximations and results are discussed and directions for future research are summarized.

North, Gerald R.↗

Intercomparisons of Total Precipitable Water from Satellite and Other Long Term Data Sets

Global water vapor data sets from satellite (NVAP) and reanalysis (NCEP and DAO) are intercompared for a 5 year period (1988-1992). Global average indicates that the NCEP and DAO reanalyses are dryer than NVAP over much of the period. Spatial patterns of the NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences show regional variations in the 60 month climatogical fields. For example, in the Eastern Pacific just south of the equator NVAP is much dryer than the NCEP and more moist than DAO. Rather large discrepancies exist in other regions as well. North Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, and Australia show that NVAP TPW values are more moist than the NCEP and DAO model analyses by 4-8 mm. In general, the NCEP and DAO exhibits a tendency to be dryer than NVAP over the tropical ocean region. Over the Americas little differences exist except over the west coast. The shapes of the differences fields over the Eastern Pacific region are significantly different between NCEP/NVAP and DAO/NVAP differences. Over South America and Central Africa, DAO TPW values are significantly higher than those of NVAP. These difference fields show monthly and seasonal variability as well. These results will be highlighted in the paper and on the poster.

Chang, Fong-Chiau↗

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

Halpern, D.↗

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow.

Reflectivity↗

Improving Reanalyses Using TRMM and SSM/I-Derived Precipitation and Total Precipitable Water Observations

Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the outgoing longwave radiation, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data types reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also leads to a better short-range forecast, but the impact is modest compared with improvements in the time-averaged fields. These results suggest that, in the presence of biases and other errors of the forecast model, it is possible to improve the time-averaged "climate content" in the assimilated data without comparable improvements in the short-range forecast skill. Results of this experiment provide a useful benchmark for evaluating error covariance models for optimal use of these data types.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6). The tropospheric and stratospheric trends in these diagnostics are affected by greenhouse gases (notably carbon dioxide and ozone), coupling with the ocean, volcanic aerosols, solar activity and compositional and dynamic feedbacks. We explore the impacts of internal variability, changing forcing specifications, composition interactivity, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, vertical resolution, and possible impacts of the mis-specification of volcanic aerosol optical depths. Overall temperature trends throughout the satellite period are well captured, but discrepancies at all levels exist and have multiple distinct causes. We find that stratospheric comparisons (using Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) retrievals and successor instruments) are most affected by variations in the representation of ozone depletion and feedbacks, followed by the volcanic signals. Tropospheric skill (using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) retrievals) is affected by the trends in ocean heat uptake and tropospheric aerosols, but also by the representation of stratospheric processes through the impact of the Brewer-Dobson circulation on the height of the tropical tropopause. We demonstrate that no single factor is the dominant cause of the discrepancies and that almost all observations lie within the broad envelope of structural uncertainty.

satellite retrievals of atmospheric temperature↗

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The variability of the surface wind field in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: Criteria for satellite measurements

The natural variability of the equatorial Pacific surface wind field is described from long period surface wind measurements made at three sites along the equator (95 deg W, 109 deg 30 W, 152 deg 30 W). The data were obtained from surface buoys moored in the deep ocean far from islands or land, and provide criteria to adequately sample the tropical Pacific winds from satellites.

Halpern, D.↗

The Use of ATLAS Data to Quantify Surface Radiative Budget Alteration Through Urbanization for San Juan, Puerto Rico.

The additional heating of the air over the city is the result of the replacement of naturally vegetated surfaces with those composed of asphalt, concrete, rooftops and other manmade materials. The temperatures of these artificial surfaces can be 20 to 40 0 C higher than vegetated surfaces. Materials such as asphalt store much of the sun s energy and remains hot long after sunset. This produces a dome of elevated air temperatures 5 to 8 C greater over the city, compared to the air temperatures over adjacent rural areas. This effect is called the "urban heat island". Urban landscapes are a complex mixture of vegetated and nonvegetated surfaces. It is difficult to take enough temperature measurements over a large city area to characterize the complexity of urban radiant surface temperature variability. However, the use of remotely sensed thermal data from airborne scanners are ideal for the task. The NASA Airborne Thermal and Land Applications Sensor (ATLAS) operates in the visual and IR bands was used in February 2004 to collect data from San Juan, Puerto Rico with the main objective of investigating the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in tropical cities. In this presentation we will examine the techniques of analyzing remotely sensed data for measuring the effect of various urban surfaces on their contribution to the urban heat island effect. Results from data collected from other US cities of Sacramento, Salt Lake City and Baton Rouge will be used to compare the "urban fabric" among the cities.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Mars: Seasonally variable radar reflectivity

The 1971/1973 Mars data set acquired by the Goldstone Solar System Radar was analyzed. It was established that the seasonal variations in radar reflectivity thought to occur in only one locality on the planet (the Solis Lacus radar anomaly) occur, in fact, over the entire subequatorial belt observed by the Goldstone radar. Since liquid water appears to be the most likely cause of the reflectivity excursions, a permanent, year-round presence of subsurface water (frozen or thawed) in the Martian tropics can be inferred.

Roth, L. E.↗

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗

Carbon monoxide and methane over Canada: July - August 1990

Carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH4) were measured in the 0.15- to 6-km portion of the troposphere over subarctic and boreal landscapes of midcontinent and eastern Canada during July - August 1990. In the mid-continent region, Arctic air entering the region was characterized by relatively uniform CO concentrations (86-108 parts per billion by volume (ppbv)) and CH4 concentrations (1729-1764 ppbv). Local biomass burning and long-range transport of CO into the area from industrial/urban sources and distant fires did frequently produce enhanced and variable concentrations. Emissions of CH4 from the Hudson Bay lowlands was the primary source for enhanced and variable concentrations, especially at altitudes of 0.15-1 km. In eastern Canada, most of the observed variability in CO and CH4 was similar in origin to the phenomena described for the midcontinent region. However, unexpectedly low concentrations of CO (51 ppbv) and CH4 (1688 ppbv) were measured in the midtroposphere on several flights. Combined meteorological and chemical data indicated that the low CO-CH4 events were the result of long-range transport of tropical Pacific marine air to subarctic latitudes.

Harriss, R. C.↗

Representativeness of CO and O3 Along ATom Transects Derived from GEOS-5 and GMI-CTM Simulations

One major goal for the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) is producing an observation-based chemical climatology to represent the atmospheric heterogeneity. In this study, we use CO and O3 observations and global atmospheric model simulations to examine the spatial representativeness of the ATom-1 and -2 transects within a 4D framework provided by the NASA GEOS-5 and GMI-CTM models. Based on the probability density functions, we find that the variability of CO and O3 along the flight tracks is well hindcast by the model when sampled per ATom flights. The CO variations along the ATom-transect are likely representative of the typical CO variations over the whole Pacific basin during both the ATom-1 and -2 periods, the northern Atlantic during the ATom-1 period, and the tropical Atlantic in the ATom-2 period. Over southern Atlantic, CO along the ATom-1 transects is likely less well mixed than that of the broader region, but is still representative of the median CO concentration. CO along the ATom-2 transect is likely higher than the median CO concentration over this region. For O3, the agreements between PDFs of O3 sampled along the ATom transects and over the broader regions are fair to good over all six regions (Scores > 0.65) with notable discrepancies over some regions. For example, in ATom-1 over the northern Pacific and Atlantic, the transect samples air masses with higher O3 levels. During ATom-2, the transect over-represents the occurrence of O3 plumes over tropical Pacific. Over the southern Pacific and Atlantic for both ATom-1 and -2, the transects have a less uniform distribution compared to the surrounding basins, but still represent the median O3 abundance. Overall, we conclude in most cases that ATom measurements represent the statistical variations of these two species over the ocean basins at the time of measurement. Higher-order statistics, including covariance of species, has not been tested in this study.

ozone↗

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗

Deep Convective Cloud Top Heights and Their Thermodynamic Control During CRYSTAL-FACE

Infrared (11 micron) radiances from GOES-8 and local radiosonde profiles, collected during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) in July 2002, are used to assess the vertical distribution of Florida-area deep convective cloud top height and test predictions as to its variation based on parcel theory. The highest infrared tops (Z(sub 11)) reached approximately to the cold point, though there is at least a 1-km uncertainty due to unknown cloud-environment temperature differences. Since lidar shows that visible 'tops' are 1 km or more above Z(sub 11), visible cloud tops frequently penetrated the lapse-rate tropopause (approx. 15 km). Further, since lofted ice content may be present up to approx. 1 km above the visible tops, lofting of moisture through the mean cold point (15.4 km) was probably common. Morning clouds, and those near Key West, rarely penetrated the tropopause. Non-entraining parcel theory (i.e., CAPE) does not successfully explain either of these results, but can explain some of the day-to-day variations in cloud top height over the peninsula. Further, moisture variations above the boundary layer account for most of the day-today variability not explained by CAPE, especially over the oceans. In all locations, a 20% increase in mean mixing ratio between 750 and 500 hPa was associated with about 1 km deeper maximum cloud penetration relative to the neutral level. These results suggest that parcel theory may be useful for predicting changes in cumulus cloud height over time, but that parcel entrainment must be taken into account even for the tallest clouds. Accordingly, relative humidity above the boundary layer may exert some control on the height of the tropical troposphere.

Sherwood, Steven C.↗

Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean

Terrestrial and marine ecosystems constitute the primary components of the Earth’s biosphere, yet their photosynthetic productions are typically studied separately, which limits understanding of planetary carbon uptake and biosphere health. Here, in this study, using multiple satellite-derived products, we identify contrasting net primary production (NPP) trends between land and ocean, probably reflecting their differential sensitivity to climate warming, especially in tropical regions. Planetary NPP shows an overall increase of 0.11 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.05) from 2003 to 2021, driven by a significant terrestrial enhancement of 0.20 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 (P < 0.001) and partially offset by an oceanic decline of −0.12 ± 0.12 PgC yr −1 (P = 0.07). While land contributes to the strong upwards NPP trend, the interannual variability in global NPP is predominantly driven by the ocean, especially during strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Our findings highlight the resilience and potential vulnerability of biosphere primary productivity in a warming climate, calling for integrated land–ocean monitoring and assessment to support climate mitigation initiatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Water Content (m3 m-3) from Australia, May 2014 - March 2017

Hourly data processed to monthly. Data collected from Cosmic Neutron Probes at variable depth averaging 28 cm that was interpolated to near-surface (0-10 cm). Site located at latitude -17.12 deg N, longitude 145.63 deg E. Data was downloaded from COSMOS data portal and is publicly available. Data from this site is referenced as Australia (1) in Table 1 and Figure 4 of Solander et al., 2020, The pan-tropical soil moisture response to El Nino, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., in press.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemistry-Transport Modeling of the Satellite Observed Distribution of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC) from the NIMBUS-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) to TTOC calculated by a chemistry-transport model (CTM). An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20%) discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite over-estimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOX abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOX emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies. Conversely,the CTM may suggest improvements to evolving satellite retrievals for tropospheric ozone.

Peters, Wouter↗