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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Respiration Response to Rainfall Modulated by Plant Phenology in a Montane Meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1-D diffusion-reaction model to calculate depth-resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016-2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales (p<0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology (p<0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore-summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Lastly, we observed significant late-season CO 2 fluxes from the deep sub-soil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of sub-soil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can We Better Constrain the Timing of GNAIW/UNADW Variability in the Western Equatorial Atlantic and Its Relationship to Climate Change During the Last Deglaciation?

We have revisited the well-trod VM28-122 core retrieved from the deep Colombian Basin, which includes sediments that reflect modern Upper North Atlantic Deep Water and extends through the last deglaciation into the last glacial period when the site was bathed in Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water. Here, we leverage the nearby Cariaco Basin's surface water radiocarbon reconstruction (reservoir age, and ΔR) on the IntCal20 timescale to recast the period of the last deglaciation with a newly constrained age model. Based on the revised age model, we observe that the multimillennial decrease in benthic δ 13 C and B/Ca (which record δ 13 C of dissolved inorganic carbon and Δ[CO 3 –2 ], respectively) began at 18,100 ± 240 (95% CI) calibrated years BP, synchronous with Termination 1, as identified by changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet composite and by the onset of rapid glacier recession in the Southern Hemisphere (Denton et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184119; Denton et al., 2021, https://10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106771). The beginning of the decrease in benthic δ 18 O is concurrent with the changes in carbon chemistry or at most, a few hundred years later. It is no later than 17,700 ± 300 (95% CI) yrs BP in our record, at the putative start of Heinrich Stadial 1. With sufficient data density (more than 2–3 control points per kyr) and an independent record of past surface water radiocarbon variations, it is possible to achieve late glacial and deglacial chronologies with fidelities similar to those of ice cores. Furthermore, doing so in more oceanographic locations should shed light more broadly on the mechanisms instrumental to abrupt climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract High‐resolution climate models (∼28 km grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus enabling their investigation in relation to the climate system. On the global scale, previous works have demonstrated that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 presents a reasonable TC climatology under prescribed present‐day (1980–2005) forcing. However, for the Western North Pacific (WNP) region, known biases in simulated TC genesis frequency and location under‐represent the basin's dominant share in observations. This study addresses these model biases in WNP by evaluating WNP TCs in a decadal simulation, and exploring potential improvements through nudging experiments. Among the major environmental controls of TC genesis, the lack of mid‐level moisture is identified as the leading cause of the deficit in simulated WNP TC genesis over the Pacific Warm Pool. Subsequent seasonal experiments explore the effect of constraining the large‐scale environment on TC development by nudging WNP temperature field toward reanalysis at various strengths. Temperature nudging elicits a significant response in TC genesis and intensity development, as well as in moisture and convection over the Warm Pool. These responses are sensitive to the choice of nudging timescale. Overall, the nudging experiments demonstrate that improvements in the large‐scale environment can lead to improvements in simulated TCs, suggesting future model developments in relation to model physics. In this way, the potential improvements in model fidelity will contribute to the understanding of how the mean state of current or future climates may give rise to extremes such as TCs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frictional and Lithological Controls on Shallow Slow Slip at the Northern Hikurangi Margin

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been identified at subduction zones globally as an important link in the continuum between elastodynamic ruptures and stable creep. The northern Hikurangi margin is home to shallow SSEs which propagate to within 2 km of the seafloor and possibly to the trench, providing insights into the physical conditions conducive to SSE behavior. We report on a suite of friction experiments performed on protolith material entering the SSE source region at the Hikurangi margin, collected during the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 375. We performed velocity stepping and slide-hold-slide experiments over a range of fault slip rates, from plate rate (5 cm/yr or 1.6 × 10 –9 m/s) to ~1 mm/s (10 –3 m/s) and quantified the frictional velocity dependence and healing rates for a range of lithologies atdifferent stresses. The frictional velocity dependence (a-b) and critical slip distance DC increase with fault slip rate in our experiments. We observe atransition from velocity weakening to strengthening at slip rates of ~0.3 µm/s. This velocity dependence of DC could be due to a combination of dilatant strengthening and a widening of the active shear zone at higher slip rates. We document low healing rates in the clay-rich volcaniclastic conglomerates, which lie above the incoming plate basement at least locally, and relatively higher healing rates in the chalk lithology. Finally, our experimental constraints on healing rates in different input lithologies extrapolated to timescales of 1–10 years are consistent with the geodetically inferred low stress drops and healing rates characteristic of the Hikurangi SSEs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models

Previous analytical and simulation-based analyses suggest that deeper land surface models are needed to realistically simulate the terrestrial thermal state in climate models, with implications for land-atmosphere interactions. Analytical approaches mainly focused on the subsurface propagation of harmonics such as the annual temperature signal, and a direct comparison with climate-change model output has been elusive. Here, this study addresses the propagation of a harmonic pulse fitted to represent the timescale and amplitude of anthropogenic warming. Its comparison to land model simulations with stepwise increased bottom boundary depth leads to an agreement between the simulation-based and analytical frameworks for long-term climate trends. Any depth increase gradually decreases the relative error in the subsurface thermodynamics, and a minimum depth of 170 m is recommended to simulate the ground climate adequately. The approach provides an accurate estimate of the required land-model depth for climate-change simulations and assesses the relative bias in insufficiently deep land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Climate Teleconnections With Granger Causality

Abstract Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

Silva, Filipi N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel Redox Cycle of Manganese in the Surface Arctic Ocean

Knowledge of the chemical speciation of particulate manganese (pMn) is important for understanding the biogeochemical cycling of Mn and other particle-reactive elements. Here, in this work, we present the synchrotron-based X-ray spectroscopy-derived average oxidation state (AOS) of pMn in the surface Arctic Ocean collected during the United States GEOTRACES Arctic cruise (GN01) in 2015. We show that the pMn AOS is <2.4 when sampled during the day and more than ~3.0 when sampled at night. We hypothesize that an active light-dependent redox cycle between dissolved Mn and particulate Mn(III/IV) exists during the day-night cycle in the surface Arctic Ocean, which occurs on the timescale of hours. The magnitude of observed pMn AOS is likely determined by the net effect of the length of the previous night and integrated light level before the end of pMn sampling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Influence of Ocean Topography on the Upwelling of Carbon in the Southern Ocean

The physical circulation of the Southern Ocean sets the surface concentration and thus air-sea exchange of CO 2 . However, we have a limited understanding of the three-dimensional circulation that brings deep carbon-rich waters to the surface. Here, we introduce and analyze a novel high-resolution ocean model simulation with active biogeochemistry and online Lagrangian particle tracking. We focus our attention on a subset of particles with high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) that originate below 1,000 m and eventually upwell into the near-surface layer (upper 200 m). We find that 71% of the DIC-enriched water upwelling across 1,000 m is concentrated near topographic features, which occupy just 33% of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Once particles upwell to the near-surface layer, they exhibit relatively uniform pCO 2 levels and DIC decorrelation timescales, regardless of their origin. Furthermore, our results show that Southern Ocean bathymetry plays a key role in delivering carbon-rich waters to the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

Abstract Ocean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing Two Approaches for Enhancing the Range of Simulated Scales in the E3SMv1 and the Impact on the Character of Hourly US Precipitation

Abstract Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models is essential for understanding and projecting water cycle changes across scales. Progress has been hampered by persistent deficiencies in representing precipitation frequency, intensity, and timing in current models. Here, we analyze simulated US precipitation in the low‐resolution (LR) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and assess the effect of two approaches to enhance the range of explicitly resolved scales: high‐resolution (HR) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which incur similar computational expense. Both E3SMv1‐MMF and E3SMv1‐HR capture more intense and less frequent precipitation on hourly and daily timescales relative to E3SMv1‐LR. E3SMv1‐HR improves the intensity over the Eastern and Northwestern US during winter, while E3SMv1‐MMF improves the intensity over the Eastern US and summer diurnal timing over the Central US. These results indicate that both methods may be needed to improve simulations of different storm types, seasons, and regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of Sea‐Surface Salinity in Simulating Historical Decadal Variations of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Coupled Climate Model

Abstract Extending climate prediction from seasonal to decadal timescales requires realistic initialization of not only upper ocean heat content but also the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, it remains a major challenge to realistically initialize AMOC in a coupled system while also maintaining a balanced atmosphere‐ocean initial state. This study demonstrates the feasibility of generating fully coupled historical states with realistic AMOC variability. Employing a forced ocean—sea‐ice (FOSI) model simulation as the “truth,” we show reproducibility of key features of historical AMOC decadal variability in a fully coupled model by restoring sea‐surface salinity, in addition to sea‐surface temperature restoring widely used in seasonal prediction. The atmospheric state of the restored coupled model solution is much closer to that of the free coupled simulation than to the observations used in FOSI, pointing to potential advantages of using this approach for initializing decadal predictions with reduced ocean initialization shock.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling of Tree Growth and Photosynthetic Carbon Uptake Across Six North American Forests

Linking biometric measurements of stand-level biomass growth to tower-based measurements of carbon uptake—gross primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity—has been the focus of numerous ecosystem-level studies aimed to better understand the factors regulating carbon allocation to slow-turnover wood biomass pools. However, few of these studies have investigated the importance of previous year uptake to growth. We tested the relationship between wood biomass increment (WBI) and different temporal periods of carbon uptake from the current and previous years to investigate the potential lagged allocation of fixed carbon to growth among six mature, temperate forests. We found WBI was strongly correlated to carbon uptake across space (i.e., long-term averages at the different sites) but on annual timescales, WBI was much less related to carbon uptake, suggesting a temporal mismatch between C fixation and allocation to biomass. We detected lags in allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to WBI at three of the six sites. Sites with higher annual WBI had overall stronger correlations to carbon uptake, with the strongest correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year. Only one site had WBI with strong positive relationships to current year uptake and not the previous year. Forests with low rates of WBI demonstrated weak correlations to carbon uptake from the previous year and stronger relationships to current year climate conditions. Our work shows an important, but not universal, role of lagged allocation of the previous year's carbon uptake to growth in temperate forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗