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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome

The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m −2 ) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ∼6000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 350 g m −2 ), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ∼4000 g m −2 (mean ≈ 275 g m −2 ), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m −2 and R 2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.

Climate change↗

Selective Depolymerization for Sculpting Polymethacrylate Molecular Weight Distributions

Chain-end reactivation of polymethacrylates generated by reversible-deactivation radical polymerization (RDRP) has emerged as a powerful tool for triggering depolymerization at significantly milder temperatures than those traditionally employed. In this study, we demonstrate how the facile depolymerization of poly(butyl methacrylate) (PBMA) can be leveraged to selectively skew the molecular weight distribution (MWD) and predictably alter the viscoelastic properties of blended PBMA mixtures. By mixing polymers with thermally active chain ends with polymers of different molecular weights and inactive chain ends, the MWD of the blends can be skewed to be high or low by selective depolymerization. This approach leads to the counterintuitive principle of the “destructive strengthening” of a material. As a result, we demonstrate, as a proof of concept, the encryption of information within polymer mixtures by linking Morse code with the MWDs before and after selective depolymerization, allowing for the encoding of data within blends of synthetic macromolecules.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HostSub_GP: Precise Galaxy Background Subtraction in Transient Long-slit Spectroscopy with Gaussian Processes

We present a novel host galaxy subtraction technique in long-slit spectroscopy for extragalactic transients. Unlike classic methods which generally estimate the background using simple interpolation of local galaxy flux in the 2D spectrum, our approach leverages multi-band archival images of the host galaxies to model the background emission from the galaxy in the 2D spectrum. Such imaging encodes the wavelength-dependent galaxy profile along the slit, and is readily accessible through wide-field imaging surveys. We construct a smooth prior for the 2D galaxy profile with a Gaussian process (GP) based on these reference images, and use another GP to model the correlated deviations from the prior in the observed spectrum. This enables accurate inference of the galaxy flux blended with the transient. On synthetic long-slit data of a spiral galaxy extracted from a Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer hyper-spectral cube, the GP method remains robust as long as the host galaxy is spatially resolved and consistently outperforms classic methods. We apply the method to archival Keck spectra of two real transients, SN 2019eix and AT 2019qiz, to further demonstrate how the method uniquely recovers weak spectral features amid strong galaxy contamination, enabling refined constraints on the properties of both transients. We have released the software implementation, HostSub_GP, a scalable toolkit that leverages JAX, with an MIT license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraints on dark photon dark matter from Lyman- α forest simulations and an ultrahigh signal-to-noise quasar spectrum

The ultralight dark photon is a well-motivated, hypothetical dark matter candidate. In a dilute plasma, they can resonantly convert into photons, and heat up the intergalactic medium between galaxies. In this work, we explore the dark photon dark matter parameter space by comparing synthetic Lyman- α forest data from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to observational data from VLT/UVES of the quasar HE0940-1050 ( z em = 3.09 ). We use a novel flux normalization technique that targets underdense gas, reshaping the flux probability distribution. Not only do we place robust constraints on the kinetic mixing parameter of dark photon dark matter, but notably our findings suggest that this model can still reconcile simulated and observed Doppler parameter distributions of z ∼ 0 Lyman- α lines, as seen by HST/COS. This work opens new pathways for the use of the Lyman- α forest to explore new physics, and can be extended to other scenarios such as primordial black hole evaporation, dark matter decay, and annihilation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Market Implications of Alternative Operating Reserve Modeling in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Pricing and settlement mechanisms are crucial for efficient resource allocation, investment incentives, market competition, and regulatory oversight. In the United States, Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) adopts a uniform pricing scheme that hinges on the marginal costs of supplying additional electricity. This study investigates the pricing and settlement impacts of alternative reserve constraint modeling, highlighting how even slight variations in the modeling of constraints can drastically alter market clearing prices, reserve quantities, and revenue outcomes. Focusing on the diverse market designs and assumptions in ancillary services by U.S. RTOs, particularly in relation to capacity sharing and reserve substitutions, the research examines four distinct models that combine these elements based on a large-scale synthetic power system test data. Our study provides a critical insight into the economic implications and the underlying factors of these alternative reserve constraints through market simulations and data analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Advanced stationary and nonstationary kernel designs for domain-aware Gaussian processes

Gaussian process regression is a widely-applied method for function approximation and uncertainty quantification. The technique has gained popularity recently in the machine learning community due to its robustness and interpretability. The mathematical methods we discuss in this paper are an extension of the Gaussian-process framework. We are proposing advanced kernel designs that only allow for functions with certain desirable characteristics to be elements of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that underlies all kernel methods and serves as the sample space for Gaussian process regression. These desirable characteristics reflect the underlying physics; two obvious examples are symmetry and periodicity constraints. In addition, non-stationary kernel designs can be defined in the same framework to yield flexible multi-task Gaussian processes. We will show the impact of advanced kernel designs on Gaussian processes using several synthetic and two scientific data sets. The results of our research show that including domain knowledge, communicated through advanced kernel designs, has a significant impact on the accuracy and relevance of the function approximation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear Safeguards: Feature Extraction for Machine Learning Enrichment Analysis of UF 6 Cylinders

With the increasing international interest in using nuclear material as sources of energy, comes the growing concern that we may see an increase in proliferation threats. Uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) is used in the nuclear fuel cycle for uranium enrichment. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitor the enrichment levels of UF 6 stored in transportation cylinders, to ensure the enrichments match that of a facility operator’s declarations. However, only a characteristic subset of UF 6 cylinders can be measured by inspectors from the IAEA during these inspections. In turn, the inspector may not identify a cylinder whose enrichment levels do not match the facility declarations. Therefore, our team attempts to develop a machine learning network that could determine the enrichment percentage of cylinders as they enter and exit facilities. The machine learning model must be robust against spectral variations due to factors that are internal and external to the UF 6 cylinder. Such factors include but are not limited to the speed and distance of the moving vehicle, cylinder type, cylinder orientation, and fill level. Many features in the spectral continuum can be used to identify and correct for some of these variations. As a consequence, the model must extract numerous features in the continuum. We investigate new approaches in continuum subtraction to verify enrichment percentage: interpolation and extrapolation of lines at the notable characteristic spectral peaks. It was determined that there was no clear answer on which method proved superior, therefore the decision was made to implement both new methods into the current codebase. We currently rely on synthetic training and testing data to analyze the results and fine tune our models but hope to test the system on measured data soon.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Defining a Platform Approach and Market Participation: Data Driven Business Models for Solid State Transformer-Based Synthetic Inertia and Voltage Stability Controls (CRADA Final Report, Project 1, Mod 1)

The primary objective of this project is to determine the incremental value created with the medium voltage solid-state transformer (MV SST) technology to different stakeholders in view of the updated DER grid regulations. This includes studying the benefits of the MV SST technology in a range of use cases for EV and DER penetration including (1) “corridor charging” for EVs and (2) solar plus storage (FERC 2222). The potential customers of this technology include utilities for EV charging, DER installers who must meet utility interconnection requirements, balancing authorities, and DER aggregators. The traditional transformers on the grid could be a limiting factor for the EV-grid integration as the distribution transformers were not designed to handle the dynamic and fluctuating EV charging loads. Thus, the issues such as voltage fluctuations, increased losses and reduced efficiency [1] can negatively impact the grid operation. To address these challenges, transformers with flexibility and adaptability become imperative to meet the evolving energy demands. In this regard, the concept of Medium Voltage Solid-State Transformers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Satellite-based Investigation of Power-Line Vegetation Encroachment in the US (SILVANUS)

Rapid wide-area assessments of vegetation encroachment on transmission and distribution line rights-of-way (ROW) is a highly desirable capability for understanding risks to the power grid during severe weather and wildfire events. Conventional assessments are time-consuming and expensive due to the need for in-situ inspections and the use of aerial assets. Performing conventional assessments on a wide area would require immense resources and time that might not be available within the horizon of an expected adverse event. Developing a capability to accurately assess vegetation encroachment into ROWs will enable faster analysis of potential grid vulnerabilities in NAERM. This project sought to develop a prototype capability for rapid ROW vegetation encroachment assessments by using Puerto Rico as a test case. Puerto Rico is a heavily forested island territory frequently impacted by tropical cyclones that threaten the electric grid by downing trees across transmission and distribution lines. Multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) enable very high resolution (i.e., 0.5 - 2 meter) assessment of vegetation conditions at scale and with revisit times appropriate for regular monitoring (e.g., weekly to quarterly, depending on cloud cover) of the entire island. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from satellites was also investigated as solution to the cloud-cover issue as they are active sensors that emit and receive a microwave signal rather than relying on solar illumination, and are therefore unaffected by cloud cover and can collect data during day or night. Finally, MSI-derived digital surface models (DSMs) map the height of objects relative to sea level, and were assessed for their ability to estimate the height of forest canopies relative to coincident transmission lines. The results of the mapping investigation are described in this report.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A survey of local interstellar hydrogen from OAO-2 observations of Lyman alpha absorption

The Wisconsin far ultraviolet spectrometer aboard OAO-2 observed the wavelength region near 1216 A for 69 stars of spectral type B2 or earlier. From the strength of the observed interstellar L sub alpha absorption, atomic hydrogen column densities were derived over distances averaging 300 pc away from the sun. The OAO data were compared to synthetic ultraviolet spectra, originally derived from earlier higher resolution rocket observations, which were computer processed to simulate the effects of absorption by different amounts of hydrogen followed by the instrumental blending.

Savage, B. D.↗

A survey of local interstellar hydrogen from OAO-2 observations of Lyman alpha absorption.

A far UV spectrometer aboard OAO-2 observed the wavelength region near 1216 A for 69 stars of spectral type B2 or earlier. From the strength of the observed interstellar L-alpha absorption, column densities of atomic hydrogen were derived over distances averaging 300 pc away from the sun. Measurements of the equivalent widths of this absorption were found to be inappropriate for deducing column densities because of the blending of nearby strong stellar lines by the 12 A wide instrumental profile of the OAO. Instead, the OAO data were compared with synthetic UV spectra, originally derived from earlier higher-resolution rocket observations, which were computer processed to simulate the effects of absorption by different amounts of hydrogen followed by the instrumental blending.

Savage, B. D.↗

Active Microwave Users Workshop Report

The following topics were addressed: (1) Seasat land experiments; (2) program planning; (3) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data processing and (4) applications.

Matthews, R. E.↗

Relationship between hurricane surface winds and L-band radar backscatter from the sea surface

High-altitude, airborne, L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data were collected in Hurricane Gloria on 28 and 30 September 1976. The backscattered power levels (proportional to the surface scattering coefficient) averaged over a few square kilometers of surface area were found to vary with surface wind speed and the angle of the wind relative to the radar. Comparisons between the backscatter from the eye and eye-wall regions of the hurricane were made with low-level aircraft wind measurements that were nearly coincident in space and time. The SAR has the potential advantage over other radar types because of its higher spatial resolution. It also appears to have the ability to penetrate rainfall, with a reduction in the echo from the surface. One difference when compared with higher frequency microwave radars is a decrease in the sensitivity of the backscatter to changes in wind speed. This dependence of L-band radar backscatter on surface winds suggests that the winds associated with hurricanes can be measured with airborne or spaceborne radars.

Weissman, D. E.↗

The chromosphere and transition region

The physical processes occurring as a result of the transfer of energy and momentum from the primary solar flare energy release site in the corona to the underlying chromosphere and transition region during the course of the flare are investigated through a comparison of theoretical models and observational data. Static, dynamic and hydrodynamic models of the lower-temperature chromospheric flare are reviewed. The roles of thermal conduction, radiation, fast particles and mass motion in chromosphere-corona interactions are analyzed on the basis of Skylab UV, EUV and X-ray data, and empirical and synthetic models of the chromospheric and upper photospheric responses to flares are developed. The canonical model of chromospheric heating during flares as a result of primary energy release elsewhere is found to be justified in the chromosphere as a whole, although not entirely as the temperature minimum, and a simplified model of horizontal chromospheric flare structure based on results obtained is presented.

Canfield, R. C.↗

A software-based system which produces SEASAT SAR imagery

A digital processing algorithm and its associated system design for producing images from SEASAT synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is described. The proposed system uses the fast Fourier transform approach to perform the two dimensional correlation process. The range migration problem can be alleviated by approximating the locus of echoes from a point target by several linear segments. Data corresponding to each segment are correlated separately and the results are coherently summed to produce full resolution images. This processing approach exhibits high computation efficiency and simple processing control functions. It is particularly attractive for software implementation based on general purpose computers. Results of this implementation and examples of digitally correlated SEASAT SAR imagery are discussed.

Wu, C.↗

Mathematical modeling and SAR simulation multifunction SAR technology efforts

The orbital SAR (synthetic aperture radar) simulation data was used in several simulation efforts directed toward advanced SAR development. Efforts toward simulating an operational radar, simulation of antenna polarization effects, and simulation of SAR images at serveral different wavelengths are discussed. Avenues for improvements in the orbital SAR simulation and its application to the development of advanced digital radar data processing schemes are indicated.

Griffin, C. R.↗