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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Characterizing Spatio-Temporal Ozone Gradients Along Coastal Boundaries: Sondes and Mobile Measurements from OWLETS-2

One of the major difficulties for the modeling and satellite communities is the validation of O3 levels in sharp coastal transition regions within metropolitan areas. Land-water gradients of ozone as well as its precursors can be significant due to differences in emissions, land use, surface deposition, boundary layer height, and mesoscale wind patterns. The Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS-2) was a follow-on field campaign spearheaded by NASA GSFC and LaRC's Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLnet) conducted in the summer of 2018 within the Upper Chesapeake region to better characterize spatial and vertical distribution of various pollutants across the coastal boundary. Supporting this campaign, 40 ozonesondes were simultaneously launched directly in the marine environment on Hart Miller Island (HMI) and on two land sites: both the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) and Howard University-Beltsville (HUBV). In addition, Personal Ozone Monitors (POMs) - small sensors - were deployed in a variety of environments - car, boat, and drone, to name a few - to quantify ozone across fine spatial and temporal thresholds. The purpose of these measurements is multifaceted: to provide both ozone pollution information to coastal metropolitan communities and validation to satellite, modeling, and forecasting communities, especially in current and future satellite endeavors such as TROPOMI and TEMPO.

coastal pollution↗

Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a fundamental component in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants to increase the plant's dispatchability, capacity factor, while reducing the levelized cost of electricity. In central receivers CSP plants, nitrate molten salts have been used for several years for operation temperatures of up to 565 degrees C. Despite many efforts to advance nitrate salt to higher operation temperatures (even considering a replacement with molten chloride salts) to achieve higher energy conversion efficiencies, the 565 degrees C temperature is currently considered the state-of-the art. Although molten salt tanks have been broadly deployed in commercial CSP plants worldwide, several failures have been reported in these tanks after a few months or years of operation, causing significant economic loss and mistrust in CSP technologies. Most of these failures are associated with the infancy of the technology and multiple issues related to tank design, fabrication, commissioning, and aggressive operation. A technical standard dedicated to the design and fabrication of molten nitrate TES tanks does not exist today. Current in-service molten salt tanks have been generally designed based on the American Petroleum Institute's (API) 650 and ASME Section II standards. The API 650 code provides guidelines for dimensions and fabrication for oil storage tanks up to 260 degrees C. The ASME standard provides allowable stress values for various materials at a range of temperatures and conditions. Both standards seem to be limited for molten salt TES tanks where high temperatures, thermal cycling, and transient conditions are expected. In 2020, NREL released the Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study (NREL/TP-5500-75763) that summarized multiple issues in CSP plants, along with potential alternatives and recommendations to address those issues based on information collected from participants representing about 80% of operating CSP plants in the world. One of the recommendations from this study was the development of accurate and validated models to evaluate the plant's transient operation, capable of capturing the effect of short-term clouds and operator response, while being flexible in being adapted to various spatial and temporal resource data. The "Failure Analysis for Molten Salt Thermal Energy Tanks for In-Service CSP Plants" project was inspired on this recommendation and was focused on (1) the development and validation of a physics-based model for a representative, commercial-scale molten salt tank, (2) performing simulations to evaluate the behavior of the tank as a function of typical plant operation conditions, (3) understanding tank failures mechanisms, (4) determining the residual stress and distortion in the tank floor after welding fabrication and evaluating their impact in the stresses developed in the tank during operation, (5) assessing the impact of key operation parameters on the temperature and stress distribution, (6) conduct a preliminary evaluation of design features to reduce stress and improve tank's reliability, and (7) estimate the tank's service life based on the stress developed under diverse operation scenarios. From the analysis conducted in the project and presented in this report, it was found that maximum stresses surpassing the yield strength point of the stainless steel (SS) 347H are developed on the tank floor near the perimeter. These large stresses are strongly influenced by the initial residual stresses and distortion of the tank floor after welding fabrication. During operation, large stresses are developed in the tank floor at high operation temperatures with large salt inventory levels during transient operation. High stresses are also related to elevated temperature gradients in the tank floor that could be attributed to insufficient mixing within the salt inflow and the salt inventory. Based on the analysis, creep is the predominant failure mechanism. However, the large stress levels could favor the plastic deformation into buckles, and crack formation due to stress relaxation cracking during cycle operation. A lifetime below 3 years was estimated for the typical plant operation conditions and a specific initial residual stress and deformation distribution of the tank floor. The estimated life agrees with the service time to failure reported in several commercial molten salt tanks. Desing and operation guidelines can be extracted from the analysis presented in this report, which could be adopted by tank manufacturers and CSP operators to advance toward an ultimate solution for tank failures by reducing residual and operational stresses to achieve a tank service life of more than 30 years. Addressing failures in molten salt TES tanks is fundamental for the CSP industry's survivability, but it is also important for other industrial and power generation applications using this technology, including nuclear and concentrating solar thermal.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Living with a Star Radiation Belt Storm Probes Mission and Related Missions of Opportunity

This presentation provides an overview of the Living With a Star (LWS) Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) mission in the context of the broader Geospace program. Missions to Geospace offer an opportunity to observe in situ the fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system and in particular those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth. The recently selected investigations on NASA's LWS program's RBSP will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the processes that supply and remove energetic particles from the Earth's Van Allen radiation belts. Instruments on the RBSP spacecraft will observe charged particles that comprise the Earth's radiation belts over the full energy range from 1 eV to more than 10 MeV (including composition), the plasma waves which energize them, the electric fields which transport them, and the magnetic fields which guide their motion. The two-point measurements by the RBSP spacecraft will enable researchers to discriminate between spatial and temporal effects, and therefore between the various proposed mechanisms for particle acceleration and loss. The measurements taken by the RBSP spacecraft will be used in data modeling projects in order to improve the understanding of these fundamental processes and allow better predictions to be made. NASA's LWS program has also recently selected three teams to study concepts for Missions of Opportunity that will augment the RBSP program, by (1) providing an instrument for a Canadian spacecraft in the Earth's radiation belts, (2) quantifying the flux of particles precipitating into the Earth's atmosphere from the Earth's radiation belts, and (3) remotely sensing both spatial and temporal variations in the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere.

Sibeck, David G.↗

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

The influence of wintertime SST variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO diversity

Abstract Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) have been linked to the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events a full year in advance. However, the contribution of the WNP precursor to the temporal evolution and spatial complexity of ENSO remains unclear. Using the preindustrial experiment of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, a partially coupled experiment is conducted in which WNP SSTa are restored to the model climatology. By comparing the perturbed experiment to the control, we are able to clearly characterize ENSO’s response to WNP SST variability. We find that the WNP is predominantly linked to eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. Without SST variability in the WNP, central Pacific (CP) ENSO events are more likely to develop. This variation in ENSO flavor is controlled by how the WNP projects onto wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, which in turn impacts the discharge and recharge of ocean heat during the ENSO cycle. Specifically, the removal of SSTa in the WNP weakens the buildup of ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific, which then hinders the development of EP-type events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Pore-scale simulation of multiphase flow and reactive transport processes involved in geologic carbon sequestration

Multiphase flow and reactive transport are two essential physicochemical processes that govern the effectiveness of geological carbon sequestration (GCS). The interaction and feedback among different phases and components during intricate physicochemical processes hold great significance in understanding CO 2 sequestration. Pore-scale simulations can account for multiphase flow and reactive transport processes in porous media and obtain spatial distributions of parameters (density, velocity, concentration, etc.) in the pore space as well as their temporal evolutions. This proves especially valuable considering that experiments can be hindered by constraints in spatial and temporal resolution. The comprehensive insights garnered from pore-scale research can be leveraged for continuum modeling using the representative elementary volume (REV) concept. In this contribution, four sequential mechanisms of CO 2 -brine-rock interaction in three zones delineated by CO 2 saturation are elaborated to elucidate complicated physicochemical processes involved in GCS, which are followed by general descriptions of mathematical equations and pore-scale numerical methods. In addition, as interested and commonly encountered processes, leakage risks during GCS and CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) processes are presented. The existing challenges and future directions are discussed for both the performance of the pore-scale models and the current gaps in the field of GCS. Importantly, we expect that this review will prove beneficial for researchers interested in pore-scale simulations, GCS, and related disciplines.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Collective Thomson scattering measurement of plasma evolution during the current pulse in a laser-triggered switch

High-voltage laser-triggered switches (HV-LTSs) are used in pulsed-power applications where low jitter and precise timing are required. The switches allow operation in the megaampere, megavolt regime while maintaining low insertion losses. Currently, there is a lack of detailed plasma measurements in these switches, yet such measurements are needed to elucidate the detailed physics, which include a range of processes such as laser breakdown, streamer formation and growth, current flow, plasma evolution, and cooling. Detailed spatially- and temporally resolved measurements of plasma properties within the switches could contribute to validating and advancing numeric models of these systems. This contribution presents laser Thomson scattering measurements of the electron number density and temperature evolution in a HV-LTS. The switch was operated at 6 kV with current flow for a duration of 145 ns and a peak current density of 0.2 MA/cm2 into a matched load. The Thomson scattering diagnostic system uses a 532 nm probe from an Nd:YAG laser allowing a temporal resolution of ∼10 ns. We find that during the switch current pulse, the plasma electron temperature rose from a starting value of 8.1 ± 1.6 eV (due to cooling of the earlier trigger laser plasma) to a peak value of 26 ± 5 eV with an associated increase in the electron density from 8.6 ± 1.7 × 1017 to 3.1 ± 0.6 × 1018 cm−3.

Gottfried, Jacob A. (ORCID:0000000290058841)↗

Techniques for improved statistical convergence in quantification of eddy diffusivity moments

While recent approaches, such as the macroscopic forcing method (MFM) or Green's function-based approaches, can be used to compute Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes closure operators using forced direct numerical simulations, MFM can also be used to directly compute moments of the effective nonlocal and anisotropic eddy diffusivities. The low-order spatial and temporal moments contain limited information about the eddy diffusivity but are often sufficient for quantification and modeling of nonlocal and anisotropic effects. However, when using MFM to compute eddy diffusivity moments, the statistical convergence can be slow for higher-order moments. In this work, we demonstrate that using the same direct numerical simulation (DNS) for all forced MFM simulations improves statistical convergence of the eddy diffusivity moments. We present its implementation in conjunction with a decomposition method that handles the MFM forcing semianalytically and allows for consistent boundary condition treatment, which we develop for both scalar and momentum transport. We demonstrate that for a two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability case study, using the same DNS for all forced MFM simulations results in convergence with 𝒪⁡(100) simulations rather than 𝒪⁡(1000) simulations. In conclusion, we then demonstrate the impacts of improved convergence on the quantification of the eddy diffusivity.

general physics↗

Investigation of aircraft landing in variable wind fields

A digital simulation study is reported of the effects of gusts and wind shear on the approach and landing of aircraft. The gusts and wind shear are primarily those associated with wind fields created by surface wind passing around bluff geometries characteristic of buildings. Also, flight through a simple model of a thunderstorm is investigated. A two-dimensional model of aircraft motion was represented by a set of nonlinear equations which accounted for both spatial and temporal variations of winds. The landings of aircraft with the characteristics of a DC-8 and a DHC-6 were digitally simulated under different wind conditions with fixed and automatic controls. The resulting deviations in touchdown points and the controls that are required to maintain the desired flight path are presented. The presence of large bluff objects, such as buildings in the flight path is shown to have considerable effect on aircraft landings.

Frost, W.↗

The geostationary radiation environment

A study of the geostationary radiation environment is presented. The distribution of charged particles is reviewed in terms of population domains, where trapped constituents (energetic electrons and protons) and transients (solar flare protons) have been considered. Synchronous geomagnetic geometry is discussed, and temporal and spatial variations of trapped particles are briefly reviewed. A short description of the current standard environment models is given. Probabilistic solar flare proton predictions are described, including the distinction between ordinary event and anomalously large event fluences and the probability of occurrence of anomalously large events. A special solar proton evaluation approach is suggested for extended manned missions in the synchronous altitude regime. Finally, calculational results are presented for orbital flux integrations and dose and shielding evaluations. The data, given in graphic and tabular form, are explained and discussed.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

Higher order methods for convection-diffusion problems

This paper applies C1 cubic Hermite polynomials embedded in an orthogonal collocation scheme to the spatial discretization of the unsteady nonlinear Burgers equation as a model of the equations of fluid mechanics. The temporal discretization is carried out by means of either a noniterative finite difference or an iterative finite difference procedure. Results of this method are compared with those of a second-order finite difference scheme and a splined-cubic Taylor's series scheme. Stability limits are derived and the matrix structure of the several schemes are compared.

Murphy, J. D.↗

Representation of vegetation by continental data sets derived from NOAA-AVHRR data

Images of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are examined with specific attention given to the effect of spatial scales on the understanding of surface phenomena. A scale variance analysis is conducted on NDVI annual and seasonal images of Africa taken from 1987 NOAA-AVHRR data at spatial scales ranging from 8-512 km. The scales at which spatial variation takes place are determined and the relative magnitude of the variations are considered. Substantial differences are demonstrated, notably an increase in spatial variation with coarsening spatial resolution. Different responses in scale variance as a function of spatial resolution are noted in an analysis of maximum value composites for February and September; the difference is most marked in areas with very seasonal vegetation. The spatial variation at different scales is attributed to different factors, and methods involving the averaging of areas of transition and surface heterogeneity can oversimplify surface conditions. The spatial characteristics and the temporal variability of areas should be considered to accurately apply satellite data to global models.

Justice, C. O.↗

Trace gas emissions to the atmosphere by biomass burning in the west African savannas

Savanna fires and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) detection and estimating burned area using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer_(AVHRR) reflectance data are investigated in this two part research project. The first part involves carbon dioxide flux estimates and a three-dimensional transport model to quantify the effect of north African savanna fires on atmospheric CO2 concentration, including CO2 spatial and temporal variability patterns and their significance to global emissions. The second article describes two methods used to determine burned area from AVHRR data. The article discusses the relationship between the percentage of burned area and AVHRR channel 2 reflectance (the linear method) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (the nonlinear method). A comparative performance analysis of each method is described.

Frouin, Robert J.↗

The Effects of Snow Depth Forcing on Southern Ocean Sea Ice Simulations

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow on sea ice is an important factor for sea ice and climate models. First, it acts as an efficient insulator between the ocean and the atmosphere, and second, snow is a source of fresh water for altering the already weak Southern Ocean stratification. For the Antarctic, where the ice thickness is relatively thin, snow can impact the ice thickness in two ways: a) As mentioned above snow on sea ice reduces the ocean-atmosphere heat flux and thus reduces freezing at the base of the ice flows; b) a heavy snow load can suppress the ice below sea level which causes flooding and, with subsequent freezing, a thickening of the sea ice (snow-to-ice conversion). In this paper, we compare different snow fall paramterizations (incl. the incorporation of satellite-derived snow depth) and study the effect on the sea ice using a sea ice model.

Powel, Dylan C.↗

Using Multi-Scale Modeling Systems and Satellite Data to Study the Precipitation Processes

In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 km2 in three-dimensions. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (l) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, the recent developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the results from using multi-scale modeling system to study the precipitating systems and hurricanes/typhoons will be presented. The high-resolution spatial and temporal visualization will be utilized to show the evolution of precipitation processes. Also how to use of the multi-satellite simulator tqimproy~ precipitation processes will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Iterative Nonlinear Tikhonov Algorithm with Constraints for Electromagnetic Tomography

Low frequency electromagnetic tomography such as the capacitance tomography (ECT) has been proposed for monitoring and mass-gauging of gas-liquid two-phase system under microgravity condition in NASA's future long-term space missions. Due to the ill-posed inverse problem of ECT, images reconstructed using conventional linear algorithms often suffer from limitations such as low resolution and blurred edges. Hence, new efficient high resolution nonlinear imaging algorithms are needed for accurate two-phase imaging. The proposed Iterative Nonlinear Tikhonov Regularized Algorithm with Constraints (INTAC) is based on an efficient finite element method (FEM) forward model of quasi-static electromagnetic problem. It iteratively minimizes the discrepancy between FEM simulated and actual measured capacitances by adjusting the reconstructed image using the Tikhonov regularized method. More importantly, it enforces the known permittivity of two phases to the unknown pixels which exceed the reasonable range of permittivity in each iteration. This strategy does not only stabilize the converging process, but also produces sharper images. Simulations show that resolution improvement of over 2 times can be achieved by INTAC with respect to conventional approaches. Strategies to further improve spatial imaging resolution are suggested, as well as techniques to accelerate nonlinear forward model and thus increase the temporal resolution.

Xu, Feng↗

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

IES↗

Numerical Reanalyses as a Gateway to Arctic Synthesis

Reanalyses are regularly gridded, retrospective depictions of the physical earth system, which are produced through the correction of a short-term forecast to available observations. In the Arctic, reanalyses are particularly well suited to marshal the sparse observing network to provide a plausible, multivariate representation of conditions. Atmospheric reanalyses such as MERRA-2 (NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2) and ocean reanalyses such as SODA3 (Univ. Maryland Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 3) are widely used in Arctic research for diagnostic studies of circulation, model evaluation, and as boundary conditions for a variety of process models. Here, we provide examples that illustrate the utility of reanalyses for providing information on the spatial and temporal scales of recent, rapid changes in the Arctic. Recent trends in Arctic surface temperatures, surface melt over Greenland and Arctic glaciers, and evolving freshwater conditions in the Arctic Ocean are examples where reanalyses can provide information that cannot easily be obtained via other means. These examples provide information on the scale, magnitude, and the uncertainty of recent Arctic change and provide a context for future scenarios. We further quantify uncertainties in key reanalyses variables and approaches for addressing these issues.

Arctic↗