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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Many-isocenter optimization for robotic radiotherapy

Despite significant dosimetric gains, clinical implementation of the 4π non-coplanar radiotherapy on the widely available C-arm gantry system is hindered by limited clearance, and the need to perform complex coordinated gantry and couch motion. A robotic radiotherapy platform would be conducive to such treatment but a new conflict between field size and MLC modulation resolution needs to be managed for versatile applications. This study investigates the dosimetry and delivery efficiency of purposefully creating many isocenters to achieve simultaneously high MLC modulation resolution and large tumor coverage. An integrated optimization framework was proposed for simultaneous beam orientation optimization (BOO), isocenter selection, and fluence map optimization (FMO). The framework includes a least-square dose fidelity objective, a total variation term for regularizing the fluence smoothness, and a group sparsity term for beam selection. A minimal number of isocenters were identified for efficient target coverage. Colliding beams excluded, high-resolution small-field 4π intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment plans with 50 cm source-to-isocenter distance (SID-50) on 10 Head and Neck (H&N) cancer patients were compared with low-resolution large-field plans with 100 cm SID (SID-100). With the same or better target coverage, the average reduction of [Dmean, Dmax] of 20-beam SID-50 plans from 20-beam SID-100 plans were [2.09 Gy, 1.19 Gy] for organs at risk (OARs) overall, [3.05 Gy, 0.04 Gy] for parotid gland, [3.62 Gy, 5.19 Gy] for larynx, and [3.27 Gy, 1.10 Gy] for mandible. R50 and integral dose were reduced by 5.3% and 9.6%, respectively. Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed significant difference (p < 0.05) in planning target volume (PTV) homogeneity, PTV Dmax, R50, Integral dose, and OAR Dmean and Dmax. The estimated delivery time of 20-beam [SID-50, SID-100] plans were [19, 18] min and [14, 9] min, assuming 5 fractions and 30 fractions, respectively. Finally, with clinically acceptable delivery efficiency, many-isocenter optimization is dosimetrically desirable for treating large targets with high modulation resolution on the robotic platform.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

H-2-SALT: Storing Fossil Energy as Hydrogen in Salt Caverns

Hydrogen storage in subsurface caverns is known as perhaps largest and longest-term energy storage system. While few such systems are currently in service (e.g., Texas; Teesside, UK), they are envisioned as being a pillar of the current energy transition that will allow intermittent power production from renewable sources (e.g., wind, solar) to be balanced with demand at grid-scale. In addition, hydrogen energy storage can allow existing fossil power plants to run more economically either by minimizing startups/shutdowns or by allowing them to take advantage of arbitrage. Finally, stored hydrogen can feed a variety of non-power users such as pipeline gas, heating, transportation, and manufacturing. The H-2-SALT paper study assessed the feasibility of a power-to-hydrogen system utilizing salt cavern storage of hydrogen in bedded salt in central Kansas, where over 750 such caverns have been constructed to date, of which approximately 350 are still in service. Legacy well and salt cavern data were collected to develop a regional geological database for two sites in Central Kansas and adjacent areas for use in more detailed geological and geomechanical site characterization efforts. This study found commercial viability and competitiveness of large-scale, electrolytic H 2 production and storage ($1.78 per kg H 2 ) that can be used for both electrical power supply to the grid during high-priced electricity periods (including co-firing with NG and fuel cell power production) and sale of H 2 for various industries, such as petrochemicals or transportation. The commercial potential of the H-2-SALT system is also relatively high because each of its components operate commercially today. It is recommended that a stratigraphic test well be drilled to collect log data and core samples that can reduce uncertainty surrounding geological and geomechanical properties of the salt beds that will be required for further cavern and energy storage system design studies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Contaminant Bioaccumulation in Aquatic Biota on and Adjacent to the Oak Ridge Reservation—2020

This report provides information on contaminant concentrations in multiple wildlife prey species inhabiting or associated with water bodies on and downstream from the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), including regional reference sites. This information can be used to understand the nature and extent of contaminant exposure and transfer through the food web and to provide a baseline for evaluating temporal trends in contaminant exposure and accumulation. This information was gathered as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) Five-Year Review (FYR) process, and it also addresses regulator comments on the annual Remediation Effectiveness Report (RER). This report summarizes the results of biological sampling completed in the spring and summer of 2020, prior to the 2021 FYR. Sampled locations included key sites upstream from the point sources of contaminants, along with watershed integration points on and off the ORR. Integration points are spatially the most important sampling sites because they capture biological responses to upstream contaminant inputs from both aqueous and groundwater sources, as well as responses to various remedial actions. These sites are most often located at a watershed administration unit boundary and may have regulatory significance for performance measures. In many cases, there are long-term biological and other monitoring data associated with these sites; these data generally fall within the areas of exposure and effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effects of Atmospheric Models on the Estimation of Infrasonic Source Functions at the Source Physics Experiment

We invert infrasound signals for an equivalent seismoacoustic source function using different atmospheric models to produce the necessary Green’s functions. The infrasound signals were produced by a series of underground chemical explosions as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE). In a previous study, we inverted the infrasound data using so-called predictive atmospheric models, which were based on historic, regional-scaled, publicly available weather observations interpolated onto a 3D grid. For the work presented here, we invert the same infrasound data, but using atmospheric models based on weather data collected in a time window that includes the approximate time of the explosion experiments, which we term postdictive models. We build two versions of the postdictive models for each SPE event: one that is based solely on the regional scaled observations, and one that is based on both regional scaled observations combined with on-site observations obtained by a weather sonde released at the time of the SPE. We then invert the observed data set three times, once for each atmospheric model type. We find that the estimated seismoacoustic source functions are relatively similar in waveform shape regardless of which atmospheric model that we used to construct the Green’s functions. However, we find that the amplitude of the estimated source functions is systematically dependent on the atmospheric model type: using the predictive atmospheric models to invert the data generally yields estimated source functions that are larger in amplitude than those estimated using the postdictive models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning From User Behavior: A Survey-Assist Algorithm for Longitudinal Mobility Data Collection

GPS-based travel surveys are widely used in mobility studies to gather crucial qualitative data, like purpose, transportation mode and replaced mode. However, survey response still poses a burden to users, especially in long-term mobility studies, leading to response fatigue. We explore a survey-assist strategy to ease this burden by a novel, user-level modeling approach that leverages past responses from each user to predict responses for new trips, without relying on external data sources like GIS data. We investigate three main algorithms for predicting responses: (i) clustering trips and extrapolating responses for similar trips, (ii) using random forest classification, and (iii) clustering that uses a hybrid algorithm to determine spatial structure, which is then fed as input to a classic random forest classifier. The clustering approach can flexibly predict responses for even complex qualitative survey questions; it achieved F-scores of 65%. The random forest pipeline uses architecture that restricts it to predicting three predetermined survey questions: trip purpose, mode, and replaced mode. However, it achieved F-scores of 78%. While the survey-assist approach has been implemented by several proprietary systems, to our knowledge, this is the first exploration in the academic literature. It follows that this is also the first rigorous evaluation of multiple algorithms that can implement the approach. The evaluation uses a large scale, publicly available, longitudinal dataset consisting of ~ 92k trips from 235 users over a period of roughly one and a half years. With this approach, travel surveys can be pre-filled with the predicted responses for each trip, thus streamlining the survey process for users. Combined with an active learning system that requests user input on low-confidence predictions, models can be updated and improved over time to better support the long-term collection of longitudinal qualitative data.

clustering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Visualizing the NIOSH Pocket Guide: Open-source web application for accessing and exploring the NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards

The NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards is a trusted resource that displays key information for a collection of chemicals commonly encountered in the workplace. Entries contain chemical structures—occupational exposure limit information ranging from limits based on full-shift time-weighted averages to acute limits such as short-term exposure limits and immediately dangerous to life or health values, as well as a variety of other data such as chemical-physical properties and symptoms of exposure. The NIOSH Pocket Guide (NPG) is available as a printed, hardcopy book, a PDF version, an electronic database, and a downloadable application for mobile phones. All formats of the NIOSH Pocket Guide allow users to access the data for each chemical separately, however, the guide does not support data analytics or visualization across chemicals. This project reformatted existing data in the NPG to make it searchable and compatible with exploration and analysis using a web application. The resulting application allows users to investigate the relationships between occupational exposure limits, the range and distribution of occupational exposure limits, and the specialized sorting of chemicals by health endpoint or to summarize information of particular interest. These tasks would have previously required manual extraction of the data and analysis. The usability of this application was evaluated among industrial hygienists and researchers and while the existing application seems most relevant to researchers, the open-source code and data are amenable to modification by users to increase customization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Metabolic Network Models Reveal Complex Autotroph-Heterotroph Biofilm Interactions Governed by Photon Incidences

Autotroph-heterotroph interactions are ubiquitous in natural environment and play a key role in controlling various essential ecosystem functions, such as production and utilization of organic matter, cycling of nitrogen, sulfur, and other chemical elements. Understanding how these biofilm metabolic interactions are constrained in space and time remains challenging because fully predictive models designed for this purpose are currently limited. Toward filling this gap, here we developed community metabolic network models for two autotroph-heterotroph biofilm consortia (termed UCC-A and UCC-O), which share a suite of common heterotrophic members but have a single distinct photoautotrophic cyanobacterium (Phormidesmis priestleyi str. ANA and Phormidium sp. OSCR) that provides organic carbon and nitrogen sources to support the growth of heterotrophic partners. After determining model parameters by data fitting using the spatiotemporal distributions of microbial abundances, we comparatively analyzed the resulting biofilm models to examine any fundamental differences in microbial interactions between the two consortia under the variation of key environmental variables: CO2 and photon levels. The UCC-A model predicted generally expected responses, i.e., the autotroph population increased in response to elevated levels of CO2 and photon, followed by increase in the heterotroph population. In contrast, the UCC-O model showed somewhat complicated dynamics, e.g., higher photon incidence rates resulted in the increase in autotroph population but decrease in heterotroph population due to the lowered provision of glucose from the autotroph. A further analysis showed that species coexistence was governed by the photon incidences rather than the carbon availability for UCC-O, which was the opposite for UCC-A.

Phalak, Poonam↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sparsely Dispersed CeO x ‑Stabilized Pt Nanoparticles Overcome Pt Loading–Durability Trade-Off for Highly Durable Heavy-Duty Fuel Cells

Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are clean and sustainable mobile power sources for transportation. Recently, their deployment in heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) has attracted growing interest owing to their high energy scalability and lower infrastructure requirements. However, to meet the stringent requirements for efficiency and long-term durability for HDV applications, PEMFCs typically employ a relatively high platinum group metal (PGM) loading (>0.2 mg PGM /cm 2 ). This elevated PGM loading significantly increases the stack and system costs, surpassing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) target of $\$ 60$/kW for commercial viability. Reducing PGM loading while maintaining performance and durability remains a central challenge for HDV fuel cells. Here we exploit metal oxide–Pt interactions and utilize the strong CeO x –Pt interaction to design a CeO x @Pt catalyst structure with exceptional durability. At a low total PGM loading (0.1 mg PGM /cm 2 ), the CeO x @Pt/C catalyst demonstrates high fuel cell performance (8.8 kW/g PGM ) and stability (power retention >90%) after the challenging HDV durability testing (90,000 accelerated-stress-test cycles). With the CeO x @Pt/C catalyst, we showcase over 70% reduction in Pt cost from the M2FCT target (to $\$ 9$/kW), highlighting its promising potential for enabling stable and cost-effective fuel cell systems for heavy-duty applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regional Geology Capstone Report for the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (Volume V)

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. The MRCSP regional geology Capstone report summarizes the regional characterization of geologic storage subtasks performed under MRCSP Phase III. The regional characterization work was completed by the state geological surveys of Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia along with Western Michigan University and Rutgers University. Building on the Phases I and II, the Phase III research was focused on key research topics identified in previous MRCSP efforts: [1] Regional Geologic Cross Sections for Potential Storage and Containment Zones; [2] Appalachian Basin: Enhanced Recovery Opportunities; [3] Michigan Basin: Assessment of Enhanced Oil Recovery Using Carbon Dioxide in Silurian Pinnacle Reefs; [4] Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain and Adjacent Offshore Region: Characterization of Carbon Storage Targets; [5] Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates; [6] Upper Silurian to Middle Devonian Strata of Ohio: Structural Characterization of Potential CO 2 Reservoirs and Adjacent Strata; [7] Triassic Rift Basins: Preliminary Study of Long-Term CO 2 Storage Potential Together, the regional characterization effort developed useful products to support project developers, policy makers and other stakeholders in the MRCSP region seeking to understand where potential storage exists relative to large stationary sources of CO 2 emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible Financial Credit Agreements: Low-Interest Secured Flex Loans (LISFL)

Flexible Financial Credit Agreements is a broad term used to describe a suite of solar products with innovative features not currently offered in traditional solar financing programs. This brief focuses on a flex loan program that offers a no- or low-cost capital source to bridge the gap between the initial installation cost and the ultimate receipt of tax credits and energy savings. This program also provides low interest rates, for affordability, as well as a pre-funded debt service reserve account (DSRA), and is secured by the solar PV asset.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Select Proliferation Studies on TRISO-fueled, Heat-Pipe-cooled Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors carry the potential to open up new markets for the nuclear industry, as their expected cost competitiveness in non-traditional market segments (e.g., mines, military bases, extraterrestrial surfaces, and remote areas), and their inherent safety features make them deployable when other power sources are unavailable or difficult to exploit. For countries that have not traditionally participated in nuclear power, microreactors represent a clean energy solution [1]. However, their use, especially in non-weapons states, may entail challenges in terms of maintaining international nuclear safeguards [2]. Furthermore, the deployment locations where microreactors may prove most cost competitive would be difficult to access by state and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors [3]. In addition to the isolated nature of potential deployment sites, the low-power characteristic of microreactors suggests that numerous microreactors would need to be deployed to meet energy demands. That, coupled with the unique physics of many current microreactor designs, opens up a new area of research with respect to nonproliferation and safeguards concerns [2]. Whereas traditional facilities are inspected as isolated cases when looking for signs of diversion or misuse; microreactors may need to be assessed in the context of the entire fleet to which they belong. International safeguards necessitate timely detection of any significant quantities (SQs) of material that are being diverted (e.g., 1 SQ of special nuclear material diverted over the course of a 1-year period) [4]. For low-enriched uranium, the IAEA defines 1 SQ as corresponding to 75 kg of 235U. The purpose of the present paper is to explore the detectability threshold for material diversion in microreactors by relying on critical control drum angles, excess reactivity, and the reactor lifetime as the selected operational parameters. For this assessment, a heat-pipe-cooled microreactor was regarded as the base design. While the conclusions reached in this paper are not readily extendable to the design of actual microreactors, the analysis herein enables conclusions to be drawn regarding the level of accuracy needed for reference calculations in order to detect diversion scenarios by utilizing the selected operational parameters (i.e., mainly control drum angles, critical insertion angle, and the reactor lifetime).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining Tropical Convection Features at Storm-Resolving Scales Over the Maritime Continent Region

Global Storm Resolving Models (GSRMs) provide a way to understand weather and climate events across scales for better-informed climate impacts. In this work, we apply the recently developed and validated CAM (Community Atmosphere Model)—MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) modeling framework, based on the open-source Community Earth System Model (CESM2), to examine the tropical convection features at the storm resolving scale over the Maritime Continent region at 3 km horizontal spacing. We target two global numerical experiments during the winter season of 2018 for comparison with observation in the region. Here we focus on the investigation of the representations of the convective systems, precipitation statistics, and tropical cyclone behaviors. We found that regional-refined experiments show more accurate precipitation distributions, diurnal cycles, and better agreement with observations for tropical cyclone features in terms of intensity and strength statistics. We expect the exploration of this work will further advance the development and use of the storm-resolving model in precipitation predictions across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Aerosol Sources and Mixing States Field Campaign Report

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than anywhere else on Earth, with rapidly shrinking sea ice extent transforming the region. Depending on chemical and physical properties, atmospheric aerosols directly scatter and/or absorb radiation, serve as cloud droplet and/or ice crystal nuclei, and/or reduce the reflectiveness of the snow surface, thereby altering the atmospheric energy budget. There is a wide spread in the magnitude of simulated arctic aerosol radiative forcing, and significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Increasing local natural and anthropogenic emissions are significant, with uncertain climate impacts due to complex feedbacks. Model evaluations, however, are limited by the dearth of arctic aerosol observations available and an inadequate understanding of arctic aerosol processes. The majority of previous arctic aerosol observations have been made through intensive spring/summer field campaigns, with few intensive measurement studies focused on the fall-winter transition, a period when freeze-up is occurring later and thinning sea ice is resulting in wintertime ice fracturing. Aerosol monitoring at arctic coastal stations has provided knowledge of long-term seasonal trends in aerosol concentrations. The completed ARM field campaign addresses observational and knowledge gaps through detailed aerosol size and chemical composition measurements during the fall-winter transition in the coastal Arctic and through the entire annual cycle in the central Arctic. The observations are improving our understanding of the sources and processes controlling the aerosol population in the rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Strong Anthropogenic Black Carbon Forcing Constrained by Pollution Trends Over China

Estimates of the effective radiative forcing from aerosol-radiation interaction (ERF ari ) of anthropogenic Black Carbon (BC) have been disputable and require better constraints. Here we find a substantial decline in atmospheric absorption of −5.79Wm −2 decade −1 over eastern central China (ECC) responding to recent anthropogenic BC emission reductions. By combining the observational finding with advances from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase6 (CMIP6), we identify an emergent constraint on the ERF ari of anthropogenic BC. We show that across CMIP6 models the simulated trends correlate well with simulated annual mean shortwave atmospheric absorption by anthropogenic BC over China. Making use of this emergent relationship allows us to constrain the aerosol absorption optical depth of anthropogenic BC and further provide a constrained range of 2.4–3.0 Wm −2 for its top-of-atmosphere ERF ari over China, higher than existing estimates. Furthermore, our work supports a strong warming effect of BC over China, and highlights the need to improve BC simulations over source regions.

CMIP6 models↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gravitational wave signatures from discrete flavor symmetries

Non-Abelian discrete symmetries have been widely used to explain the patterns of lepton masses and flavor mixing. In these models, a given symmetry is assumed at a high scale and then is spontaneously broken by scalars (the flavons), which acquire vacuum expectation values. Typically, the resulting leading order predictions for the oscillation parameters require corrections in order to comply with neutrino oscillation data. Here, we introduce such corrections through an explicit small breaking of the symmetry. This has the advantage of solving the cosmological problems of these models without resorting to inflation. The explicit breaking induces an energy difference or "bias" between different vacua and drives the evolution of the domain walls, unavoidably produced after the symmetry breaking, towards their annihilation. Importantly, the wall annihilation leads to gravitational waves which may be observed in current and/or future experiments. We show that a distinctive pattern of gravitational waves with multiple overlapped peaks is generated when walls annihilate, which is within the reach of future detectors. We also show that cosmic walls from discrete flavor symmetries can be cosmologically safe for any spontaneous breaking scale between 1 and 10 18 GeV, if the bias is chosen adequately, without the need to inflate the walls away. We use as an example a particular A 4 model in which an explicit breaking is included in right-handed neutrino mass terms.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗