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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An Empirical Study on the Use of the Rancor Microworld Simulator to Support Full-scope Data Collection

A lack of data has been identified as a major challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Accordingly, several institutes and researchers have tried to collect HRA data from different data sources such as actual historical measurements, expert judgements, or simulator studies. While the most recent studies predominantly focus on collecting data using full-scope simulators with actual operators, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun to collect HRA data using a simplified simulator, i.e., the Rancor Microworld simulator, with student participants. Full-scope studies have been known to have several intrinsic challenges to securing enough quantity of the data due to many reasons like the high cost for performing experiments or requiring actual operators’ cooperation. The ultimate goal of INL’s effort aims to infer actual operators’ data collected from a full-scope simulator on the basis of microworld data with student subjects as well as collect additional data that could be missed in the full-scope research. As a first step to achieve this goal, this paper projects an experimental plan for investigating the differences in human performance between individuals in two groups: 1) an actual operator and 2) a student when using the Rancor Microworld simulator. A randomized factorial experiment design has been developed with two independent variables, i.e., type of scenario and type of subject. Six human performance measures, i.e., 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situation awareness, 5) patterns of attention and 6) the number of manipulations were selected. A couple of scenarios and their procedures available to the Rancor Microworld simulator have been developed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Using Microwaves for Extracting Water from the Moon

Twenty years ago, the Lunar Prospector remote sensing satellite provided evidence of relatively large hydrogen concentrations at the lunar poles and in particular concentrated in permanently shadowed craters. The scientific hypothesis is that the hydrogen is in the form of cryo-trapped water just under the surface of the soil. If true this would mean that an average of about 2% water ice is mixed with the lunar soil existing in the form of ice at cryogenic temperatures. For 5 years we have been investigating the use of microwaves for the processing of lunar soil. One of the early uses could be to use microwave energy to extract volatiles and in particular water from the lunar permafrost. Prototype experiments have shown that microwave energy at 2.45 GHz, as in consumer microwave ovens, will couple with and heat cryogenically cooled lunar soil permafrost simulant, resulting in the rapid sublimation of water vapor into the vacuum chamber. The water vapor has been collected on a cryogenic cold trap with high efficiency. The primary advantage of microwave processing is that the volatiles can be extracted in situ. Excavation would not be required. Microwave frequency dielectric property measurements are being made of different lunar soil simulants and plans are to measure Apollo lunar soil at different frequencies and over a range of temperatures. The materials properties are being used to evaluate the heating of lunar soil and develop COMSOL models that can be used to evaluate different microwave extraction scenarios. With COMSOL the heating from cryogenic temperatures can be calculated and COMSOL will permit temperature dependent materials properties to be used during the heating process. Calculations at different microwave frequencies will allow the evaluation of the type of hardware that would be needed to most efficiently extract the water and other volatiles.

Ethridge, Edwin C.↗

Using Microwaves for Extracting Water from the Moon

This disk contains a video that accompanies the talk. Twenty years ago, the Lunar Prospector remote sensing satellite provided evidence of relatively large hydrogen concentrations at the lunar poles and in particular concentrated in permanently shadowed craters. The scientific hypothesis is that the hydrogen is in the form of cryo-trapped water just under the surface of the soil. If true this would mean that an average of about 2% water ice is mixed with the lunar soil existing in the form of ice at cryogenic temperatures. For 5 years we have been investigating the use of microwaves for the processing of lunar soil. One of the early uses could be to use microwave energy to extract volatiles and in particular water from the lunar permafrost. Prototype experiments have shown that microwave energy at 2.45 GHz, as in consumer microwave ovens, will couple with and heat cryogenically cooled lunar soil permafrost simulant, resulting in the rapid sublimation of water vapor into the vacuum chamber. The water vapor has been collected on a cryogenic cold trap with high efficiency. The primary advantage of microwave processing is that the volatiles can be extracted in situ. Excavation would not be required. Microwave frequency dielectric property measurements are being made of different lunar soil simulants and plans are to measure Apollo lunar soil at different frequencies and over a range of temperatures. The materials properties are being used to evaluate the heating of lunar soil and develop COMSOL models that can be used to evaluate different microwave extraction scenarios. With COMSOL the heating from cryogenic temperatures can be calculated and COMSOL will permit temperature dependent materials properties to be used during the heating process. Calculations at different microwave frequencies will allow the evaluation of the type of hardware that would be needed to most efficiently extract the water and other volatiles. The video shows the partial results of the COMSOL modeling.

Ethridge, Edwin C.↗

Using Microwaves for Extracting Water from the Moon

This disk contains 2 videos that accompanies the talk. Twenty years ago, the Lunar Prospector remote sensing satellite provided evidence of relatively large hydrogen concentrations at the lunar poles and in particular concentrated in permanently shadowed craters. The scientific hypothesis is that the hydrogen is in the form of cryo-trapped water just under the surface of the soil. If true this would mean that an average of about 2% water ice is mixed with the lunar soil existing in the form of ice at cryogenic temperatures. For 5 years we have been investigating the use of microwaves for the processing of lunar soil. One of the early uses could be to use microwave energy to extract volatiles and in particular water from the lunar permafrost. Prototype experiments have shown that microwave energy at 2.45 GHz, as in consumer microwave ovens, will couple with and heat cryogenically cooled lunar soil permafrost simulant, resulting in the rapid sublimation of water vapor into the vacuum chamber. The water vapor has been collected on a cryogenic cold trap with high efficiency. The primary advantage of microwave processing is that the volatiles can be extracted in situ. Excavation would not be required. Microwave frequency dielectric property measurements are being made of different lunar soil simulants and plans are to measure Apollo lunar soil at different frequencies and over a range of temperatures. The materials properties are being used to evaluate the heating of lunar soil and develop COMSOL models that can be used to evaluate different microwave extraction scenarios. With COMSOL the heating from cryogenic temperatures can be calculated and COMSOL will permit temperature dependent materials properties to be used during the heating process. Calculations at different microwave frequencies will allow the evaluation of the type of hardware that would be needed to most efficiently extract the water and other volatiles. The 1st video shows the results of the COMSOL models. The second video shows brief views of the lunar surface.

Ethridge, Edwin C.↗

Multilateral Testing Workshop on Relocatable Portal Monitors

The procurement and deployment of radiation detection equipment is a multi-faceted challenge across the globe. Knowledge sharing of the testing methods used to evaluate equipment for deployment scenarios helps improve the understanding of deployed systems by the global community. The United States Department of Energy’s Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Office (NSDD) performed a series of characterization measurements in 2019, focused on radiation detection systems that could function as relocatable portal monitors. The capstone activity for this project was a multilateral and cross-disciplinary workshop demonstrating, performing, and refining the techniques used in the characterization measurements with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and global partners. A group of technical experts including representatives from nine countries, the IAEA, and NSDD gathered at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, NM during September of 2019 for the Operational and Performance Testing and Evaluation of Relocatable Portals Workshop. Over the course of a week, the group discussed the necessity for and process of developing operational and performance requirements, challenges related to deploying radiation detection systems for the countries in attendance, use cases for deploying relocatable radiation detection equipment, and considerations related to testing equipment for appropriate deployment scenarios. All participants were given the opportunity to have hands-on experience with eleven relocatable systems in executing a limited scope characterization test comprised of six test scenarios. At the conclusion of testing, participants reviewed and presented their findings, and the group as a whole compared and contrasted their experiences. Suggested revisions to the test methods and ideas for further collaborations were discussed. This report discusses the logistical and planning considerations for bringing together experts across disciplines in a multilateral workshop on testing of radiation detectors, as well as presenting the testing methods performed, results, and paths forward. Success of workshops related to technical knowledge transfer and improvement of test methods is key to global technical and scientific support of radiation detection deployments.

Erchinger, Jennifer L.↗

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗

TCO Analysis Approach and Regional Analysis of dWPT for Class 8 Tractors

Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (dWPT) is a method by which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can charge their battery while traveling on the road without the need for a physical conductive connection to the power source. dWPT has been proposed as a strategy to enable a reduction in vehicle battery capacity and associated mass and cost. In this slide deck presented at the EVs@Scale Consortium - Wireless Power Transfer Pillar Deep-Dive Meeting on November 11th, 2023, NREL provides results from an evaluation of dWPT using data from Class 8 tractors driving in the Atlanta Metro Area. NREL selected data for archetypal days representing local, regional, and long-haul trips, defined according to trip length, that included travel on primary roadways. EVI-InMotion (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - InMotion), a systems planning and optimization tool developed at NREL, was used to evaluate dWPT performance assuming dWPT charging on 120 road segments for a total roadway lane distance of 2,365 miles. The EVI-InMotion results and representative day drive cycles were analyzed with NREL's T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) tool to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for scenarios comprising two model years - 2030 and 2040 - and two technology progress cases. TCO was calculated for diesel, fuel cell electric, BEVs with batteries sized assuming no dWPT capabilities, and 200kWh BEVs with dWPT installed. This analysis finds that en-route stationary charging frequency and downtime when not on electrified roadways are the main contributors to TCO for the dWPT vehicles and that these vehicles can achieve cost parity with FCEVs at low electricity costs. Based on the scenario assumptions used here, low electricity costs would further help the cost parity with diesel vehicles in regional and long-haul cases due to stationary fueling downtime. This presentation also concludes that key factors affecting the parity potential of dWPT-capable vehicles include more extensive dWPT road coverage, higher en-route charging power, less expensive power batteries, and higher hydrogen or diesel fuel costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Advanced photovoltaic power system technology for lunar base applications

Advanced photovoltaic/electrochemical (batteries or regenerative fuel cells for storage) power system options for a lunar base are discussed and compared. Estimated system masses are compared with those projected for the SP-100 nuclear system. The results of the comparison are quantified in terms of the mass saved in a scenario which assembles the initial base elements in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and launches from there to the lunar surface. A brief summary is given of advances in photovoltaic/electrochemical power system technologies currently under development in the NASA/OAST program. A description of the planned focussed technology program for surface power in the new Pathfinder initiative is also provided.

Brinker, David J.↗

Determining the IV fluids required for a ten day medical emergency on Space Station Freedom - Comparison of packaged vs. on-orbit produced solutions

To aid planning for the storage of supplies onboard Space Station Freedom, an estimate was made of the amount of intravenous (IV) fluid required to support a patient who has suffered a medical emergency for a period of up to 10 days. Six different medical scenarios were evaluated, and the volume of IV fluids required for each scenario was estimated. Up to 220 liters of fluid would be required to support a patient for all of the scenarios. When optimizing the volumes to support any single scenario, a total of 123 liters is required. Use of a water polishing system to produce sterile water for injection from potable supplies and on-station formulation of IV fluids results in a smaller mass and volume requirement for the Fluid Therapy Subsystem than carrying prepackaged bags of fluid.

Creager, Gerald J.↗

Low frequency astronomy from lunar orbit

As part of preparation for establishing a permanently manned lunar outpost, a plan is proposed whereby relatively simple phased arrays of dipoles will be placed on individual lunar satellites to perform interferometry between the spacecraft. The dipole arrays will be deployed as inflatable structures. The experiment will function at 13 and 26 MHz. For a scenario in which two spacecraft are in perpendicular lunar polar orbits at altitudes of 100 km, the useful physical baselines will range from about 1 to about 1500 km. With a mission lifetime of one year, the two-element interferometer will produce synthetic aperture imaging with a resolution of about 2 arcsec.

Basart, John P.↗

MUADEE: Mars Upper Atmosphere Dynamics, Energetics, and Evolution discovery mission. Executive summary volume

This document is the final report of the MAUDEE (Mars Upper Atmosphere Dynamics, Energetics, and Evolution) consortium. It describes a low cost Discovery mission to investigate the upper atmosphere of Mars and to understand the manner in which Mars has evolved over geologic time. In keeping with the innovative philosophy permeating the Discovery Program and in order to minimize the burden of reading an extensive prose exposition, a new presentation format has been adopted. The format involves a series of view graphs with facing text. The view graphs form the basis of a complete oral presentation of the MAUDEE mission and the facing text provides more detailed, but still brief, explanatory descriptions. Readers can scan the view graphs and/or read the facing text at their discretion. The oral presentation of this study was given to code SL personnel at NASA Headquarters on February 23, 1994. MAUDEE is an essential component of the Mars Exploration Program. It provides the information required to understand the evolution of the planet via the escape of volatiles. It provides the key measurements needed to understand the upper atmosphere of the last of the three terrestrial planets to be so studied. It connects and supplements investigations based on other Mars missions: Mars Surveyor, Planet-B and Mars-96. The MAUDEE mission plan involves a combination of remote and in-situ sensors, housed in three instrument packages. The sensors make measurements of the atmospheric regions between 60-200 km. These instruments are based on extensive heritage from Earth explorers and Pioneer Venus. The mission scenario has several phases and employs aerobraking maneuvers to lower initial apoapsis, thereby reducing fuel requirements. The spacecraft has body-mounted solar cells, enabling deep diving into the Martian atmosphere. The orbital inclination allows for pole-to-pole latitudinal sweeps in an initial elliptical phase, followed by a circular phase affording detailed diurnal measurements. The nominal mission duration at Mars is one Mars year.

Killeen, Timothy L.↗

Influence of Icing Information on Pilot Strategies for Operating in Icing Conditions

The influence of potential remoteice-deteetion system features on pilot decision making was investigated through a Web-based experiment. Display features including a graphical plan view depiction of icing severity, vertical view depiction, single and multiple icing Severity levels as well as sensor range were varied in a part-task simulation experiment. Using information from each display, pilots were presented with a set of four flight scenarios and probed on their routing decisions and comfort level with those decisions. The experiment also included a subjective display preference evaluation. Results show that all of the displays improved pilot decision making over existing text-based icing information. The three-dimensional displays that included vertical depiction of icing conditions were found to support improved decision making. Range was not found to be a strong factor in the experiment; however, the minimum range tested was 25 n miles, which may be in excess of current technical capabilities. The depiction of the severity of icing conditions was not found to be as important as accurate information on the location of icing conditions.

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence↗

Artificial Gravity in Mars Orbit for Crew Acclimation

NASA’s current baseline plan for a crewed Mars mission anticipates a transit time of up to three hundred days in microgravity and 3-14 days on the Martian surface for gravity acclimation before the crew can safely perform their first Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA). While there are multiple options for how initial surface operations will be performed, all current designs involve acclimation on the surface, and the impacts on the mission schedule, required supplies, and crew lander systems are significant. This paper proposes an alternative option utilizing artificial gravity, which offers benefits in terms of mission scope, mass savings, crew health, and long-term strategic vision. By moving the acclimation requirement to the orbiting habitat’s existing systems, rather than adding redundant systems to the lander, the Mars Descent Vehicle (MDV) can be a much smaller, simpler, and lighter design. Rather than the lander being designed to support crew for days, it would be mere hours. While ambitious, the concept of pre-acclimation in orbit can be not only safe and feasible, but done with fairly minimal changes to the planned architecture and overall mass requirements. The data used draws on decades of established research and demonstrates how this capability can be not only used for pre-acclimation, but also to support crew during early orbital-only missions, surface abort contingency scenarios, return-to-orbit abort scenarios, and as an early proof of capability into larger and more ambitious artificial gravity designs needed for extended exploration missions in the future.

Rowe, Justin↗

Planning for Material Control and Accountancy at Liquid Fueled Molten Salt Reactors

The purpose of this report is to provide molten salt reactor (MSR) developers and future US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license applicants with recommendations for developing an effective and practical material control and accounting (MC&A) plan, focused primarily on MSR designs that use circulating liquid fuel. Because of the breadth of MSR designs, there is no single, generic, detailed MC&A plan that will work for every design. The wide variation of fresh fuel salts, the method and frequency of loading fresh fuel, the reactor system design components (e.g., tanks, filtration systems, chemical processing streams), and waste streams will determine the specific measurement locations and instrumentation that can best meet MC&A objectives throughout an MSR facility. Additionally, MSR designs are rapidly evolving, and new design features and deployment scenarios that will affect MC&A are being explored and pursued. This report defines a generic MC&A approach that was developed for terrestrial (as opposed to maritime) deployments to meet the intent of NRC domestic safeguards and MC&A. MSR license applicants should consider nuclear safeguards (both domestic and international) and security throughout the design, as early as the preconceptual design phase. MC&A of special nuclear material (SNM) is an aspect of the NRC’s domestic safeguards program, alongside physical protection. Because liquid-fueled MSRs are reactors with SNM in nondiscrete (or item) form, it is likely that the NRC may require liquid-fueled MSR license applicants to submit a formal MC&A plan as a part of their license application. Currently, the NRC licensing protocol presents a challenge because the NRC MC&A regulations have not been updated to accommodate advanced reactors, including types of MSRs. Because no liquid-fueled MSR has been licensed for operation at the time of this report, no template or precedence for a successfully licensed MSR MC&A plan exists. However, the MSR license applicant can take advantage of the NRC’s published commitments to performance-based regulations. The authors recommend that the license applicant, or MSR designers, develop an MC&A plan throughout the design lifecycle and plan to submit a detailed MC&A program description, or MC&A plan, to the NRC as a part of a license application. No MC&A plan template or guidance exists that is specific to liquid-fueled MSRs. The authors recommend that license applicants discuss the topic of MC&A during preapplication engagement. Because of the uniqueness of MC&A for liquid fueled MSRs, the authors recommend that liquid fueled MSR developers engage with the NRC on the topic of MC&A in the early phases of its design development and follow up any time there are significant modifications in design plans that would affect MC&A. For example, topics like modifications in fuel handling processes, changes in uranium enrichment, or additional chemical processing streams added to the design could be discussed with the NRC specifically on the topic of MC&A.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Investigation Support Scenario-based Policy Discussion Development [Slides]

Nuclear forensics is the examination of nuclear or other radioactive material, or of evidence contaminated with radionuclides, in the context of legal proceedings under international or national law related to nuclear security. The goal of forensic science is to discover linkages among people, places, materials and events. Nuclear forensics is an essential component of national response plans to events involving nuclear or other radioactive materials out of regulatory control and informs prevention, detection and response.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Cambium 2022 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision making. The 2022 Cambium data set is the third annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL’s Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2022’s scenarios (Section 3), define the metrics (Section 5), and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics (Section 6).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗