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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual PV projects range widely, from 15.4% to 35.5%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed-tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010- to 2013-vintage projects, where they’ve remained fairly steady among both 2014- and 2015-vintage projects as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. Meanwhile, several of the newer CSP projects in the United States are struggling to match long-term performance expectations. PPA Prices: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time. Most recent PPAs in our sample are priced at or below $50/MWh levelized, with a few priced as aggressively as ~$30/MWh. Though impressive in pace and scale, these falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by declining wholesale market value within high penetration markets like California, where in 2016 a MWh of solar generation was worth just 83% of a MWh of flat, round-the-clock generation. At the end of 2016, there were at least 121.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country: California and the Southeast each account for 23% of the 83.3 GW of solar that first entered the queues in 2016, followed by the Northeast (17%), the Southwest (16%), the Central region (12%), Texas (6%) and the Northwest (3%). The widening geographic distribution of solar projects is a clear sign that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Final Report: Scale-up of Algal Biofuel Production Using Waste Nutrients

Renewable fuels can be more environmentally friendly than conventional fuels and can be produced locally, supporting energy independence. Liquid renewable fuels are of special interest due to their high energy density. Algae are a promising prospective feedstock for low carbon intensity liquid biofuels, due to their high productivity and potential for high lipid or carbohydrate content. Their ability to grow on wastewater and waste nutrients and on non-arable land are cost and sustainability advantages. The organic matter content of wastewater promotes mixotrophic and/or heterotrophic growth of both algae and bacteria, boosting biomass productivity further. However, economic and technologic challenges persist that prevent the scale-up of algal biofuels to commercial relevance. These challenges include algal harvesting, drying, dewatering, and the conversion of algal biomass to usable fuels (Hannon et al 2010, Dunlap and Shaw 2009, Pienkos et al. 2009). The US Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) supports research to overcome these challenges and outlines the research and development goals for algal biofuels in their Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP). The long-term goals of the MYPP for algal biofuels research are briefly as follows: develop the domestic ability to produce algal biofuels at a scale of 5 billion gallons per year (BGY) by 2030 and demonstrate technologies that produce biofuel intermediates from algae at a cost of $3/gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE) by 2022 (BETO MYPP 2016). This research reported herein was funded to investigate methods of meeting an intermediate milestone of 2,500 gallons of biofuel intermediate per acre per year for a non-integrated process by improving algal productivity, harvesting efficiency, and conversion to biofuel intermediates. Use of wastewater and wastewater nutrients was a key distinguishing characteristic of this project. In pursuit of 2,500 gallons of biofuel intermediate (BFI) per acre per year, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly) sought to develop the capability to produce biofuel intermediates from microalgae grown on municipal wastewater at a 20-acre algae-based wastewater treatment facility in Delhi, California (37.43° N), which includes 7 acres of raceway ponds. Coupling algal biofuel production with wastewater treatment capitalizes on the abundant waste nutrients and carbon present in wastewater and reduces use of clean water in algal biorefinery systems. In this research, the performance of the full-scale wastewater treatment plant was characterized by measuring productivity, wastewater treatment performance, hydraulic characteristics, and energy consumption. Nine 1,000-L pilot raceways with CO2 addition were used in experiments to maximize productivity. Low-cost, energy-efficient algae bioflocculation and settling were monitored. Population genetics were monitored in an attempt to correlate taxa with superior productivity and/or settling. Algae-bacterial biomass was converted to biofuel intermediates via bench-scale hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), and the resulting fuel quality was characterized. To develop rapid strain screening capabilities, a climate simulating photobioreactor (“LEAPS”) was developed and validated against outdoor raceways. A techno-economic analysis (TEA) and a lifecycle assessment (LCA) were performed to model process economics and sustainability. The major outcomes of this research included demonstration of 33 g/m2-day annual average algal-bacterial productivity in pilot raceways, and a biofuel intermediate yield of 0.35 g intermediate/g algae biomass via HTL, for a yield of 4,100 gallons BFI per acre per year, assuming a 90% harvest efficiency and ignoring other minor losses. This exceeded the project goal of 2,500 gallons of BFI per acre per year and nearly met the 2030 program goal, highlighting the promise of integrating wastewater treatment and biofuels production. The biocrude BFI produced by the process is refined to diesel and naphtha fuels. These fuels are normalized to the energy content of gasoline (gallons gasoline equivalent, GGE, for comparison to other fuels). Results from the TEA of the this complete “well-to-wheel” process demonstrated that, at a 400-ha scale, a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $12.55/GGE, which could be decreased 57% to $7.14/GGE when including revenue from coupling the biofuel production with the co-products of wastewater treatment services and low carbon fuel credits from California and Federal programs. Due mainly to the high capital costs of thickener centrifuges and hydrothermal processing equipment, the fuel cost is sensitive to scale, with significantly lower costs expected for larger farms. In this research project, significant advances were made in improving raceway algal productivity and fuel production from algae biomass, while also improving process economics. These outcomes brought the algal biofuel technology closer to being a sustainable and marketable process. The remainder of this executive summary is organized into the following six primary project tasks: (1) to optimize biomass productivity for a selected strain at Delhi, (2) to maximize algal productivity and harvesting efficiency in Delhi pilot ponds, (3) a full-scale raceway hydraulic characterization, (4) biomass processing to biofuel intermediates, and (5) scale-up engineering analysis, modeling, and planning.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Utility-Scale Solar: Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance, and PPA Pricing in the United States – 2018 Edition

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2017, the utility-scale sector accounted for nearly 60% of all new solar capacity, and is expected to maintain its market-leading position for at least another six years. Two-thirds of all states, representing all regions of the country, are now home to one or more utility-scale solar projects. This report—the sixth in an ongoing annual series—provides in-depth data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. Drawing on empirical project-level data from a wide range of sources, this report analyzes technology trends, installed project prices, operating costs, capacity factors, power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), and the market value of solar. Given its current preeminence in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are also presented where appropriate. Highlights from this year's edition include: -Installation and Technology Trends: The use of solar trackers dominated 2017 installations with nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the high-insolation Southwest, the median insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2017. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio grew to 1.32 in 2017, allowing the inverters to operate closer to full capacity for a greater percentage of the day. -Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices have steadily fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.0/WAC (or $1.6/WDC) for projects completed in 2017. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2017 sample were priced at or below $1.8/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $0.9/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample has decreased steadily every year since 2013; similarly, price variation across regions decreased in 2017. -Operation and Maintenance ("O&M") Costs: PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $16/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2017. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. -Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual projects vary widely, from 14.3% to 35.2%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010-vintage to 2013-vintage projects, where they've remained fairly steady among more-recent project vintages as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. -PPA Prices and LCOE: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time, by $20-$30/MWh per year on average from 2006 through 2012, with a smaller price decline of ~$10/MWh per year evident from 2013 through 2016. Most recent PPAs in our sample—including many outside of California and the Southwest—are priced at or below $40/MWh levelized (in real 2017 dollars), with a few priced as aggressively as ~$20/MWh. The median LCOE among operational PV projects in our sample has followed PPA prices lower, suggesting a relatively competitive market for PPAs. -Solar's Wholesale Energy Market Value: Falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by a decline in the wholesale energy market value of solar within higher-penetration markets like California, where solar earned just 79% of the average price across all hours within CAISO's real-time wholesale energy market in 2017 (down from 125% back in 2012). In other markets with less solar penetration, however, solar's hourly generation profile still earns more than the average wholesale price (e.g., 127% in ERCOT, 112% in PJM). -Solar+Storage: Adding battery storage is one way to at least partially restore the value of solar, and three recent PV+storage PPAs in Nevada (each using 4-hour batteries sized at 25% of PV nameplate capacity) suggest that the incremental PPA price adder for storage has fallen to ~$5/MWh, down from ~$15/MWh just a year ago for a similarly configured project. As PV plus battery storage becomes more cost-effective, a number of developers are regularly offering it as a viable upgrade to standalone PV. At the end of 2017, there were at least 188.5 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The 2017 growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country, but is most pronounced in the up-and-coming Midwest region, which accounts for 27% of the 99.2 GW of new queue capacity. The widening geographic distribution is as clear of a sign as any that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Slippery Omniphobic Covalently Attached Liquids for Extreme Anti-Scaling

Fouling is amajor unresolved problem in a varietyof industries including power generation, water desalination,and hydrometallurgy. In a heat exchanger, the accumulated salt scale could lead to a decrease in heat transfer, corrosion, blockage of flow and increasedpressure drop, resulting in higher operation costsand shortened equipment lifetime. The added operational costs due to active scale removal techniques such as mechanical abrasion and chemical inhibitors are responsible for 0.25% of the GDP in industrialized nations.Herewe utilize slippery omniphobic covalently attached liquids (SOCAL) dip coating on aluminum substrates to minimize surface energyand surface roughness, hence maximizingthe energy barrier for scale formation. To enable SOCAL surfacebinding on aluminum, we started by depositinga nanoscale(500 nm thick)adhesion layer of SiO2using scalable and cost-effective electrophoretic deposition (EPD), followed by SOCAL grafting to the SiO2.The EPD SiO2coating chemistry was tailored to achieve a smoothsurface finish which, combined with the low surface energyof the SOCAL coating, translated to extreme anti-scaling performance. Thermal degradation testing in an ambient environment revealed the covalently bonded SOCAL coatingswithstand temperatures of 100°C. To characterize scaling, we utilized CaSO4and CaCO3scale tests, showing up to 20X less scaling than uncoated aluminum. Descaling tests revealed that our SOCAL coatings dramatically decrease scale adhesion, resulting in rapid removal of scale buildup in highly supersaturated conditions. To investigate manufacturability, two alternate methods of SiO2deposition were tested, including physical vapor deposition and spin-on glass, with great success in coating smooth metallic substrates, but limited success due to the inability to coat arbitrarily shaped surfaces. Our work not only demonstrates a facile method of tailoring interfacial energy and roughness to control fouling, it develops cost-effective, scalable,and high performing anti-fouling coating applicable to aluminum surfacesfor a variety of applications.

Zhao, Hanyang↗

Small to Full Height Scale Comparisons of Cesium Ion Exchange Performance with Crystalline Silicotitanate

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site houses 56 million gallons of high-level radioactive waste generated from plutonium production from 1944 to 1988. The supernatant waste, currently stored in underground tanks, is intended to be vitrified following filtration and 137 Cs removal at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Vitrification Facility. The WTP Pretreatment Facility will not be operational for several years. The Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system is a technology demonstration that will remove cesium from tank waste supernate to support directly feeding LAW to the vitrification facility. The 137 Cs removal is important to meet the WTP LAW contract specification and ultimately for creating a contact-handled waste form. The waste acceptance criteria (WAC) limit for the WTP LAW Facility is <3.18E-5 Ci 137 Cs per mole Na. The TSCR system is skid mounted and employs two key technologies: dead end filtration for solids removal and ion exchange (IX) for cesium removal. Filtration is necessary to protect the functionality of the IX columns. The IX process utilizes sodium form crystalline silicotitanate (CST) IX media produced by UOP Honeywell, LLC (Des Plaines, IL) under the product name IONSIV R9140-B, 18 x 50 mesh, in a lead-lag-polish column configuration. Each column contains a CST bed height of 92 inches and a volume of approximately 157 gallons of CST IX media. The full-scale TSCR operation will run at a residence time of 1.9 bed volumes (BV)/h, which results in a superficial velocity of 7.3 cm/min and a flowrate of ~5 gal/min. Column testing at small (2.5% of the full bed height), medium (12% of the full bed height), and full-height scales has been previously conducted to evaluate process variables and scale up performance of Cs exchange onto the CST. Cesium load performances from various sieve cuts at the small scale indicated that a 30-mesh sieve cut be tested to determine if it better reflects the 12% and full-height column performances at the small scale. Two process flowrates were tested in the small-column configuration with <30-mesh CST and simulant solutions. These tests were compared to full-height column tests at the same residence times to assess CST particle size effect on column scaling. Table S.1 summarizes the observed column performance determined for the two flowrates juxtaposed to the previous work with 5.6 M Na simulant at higher scales (used as benchmarks). The WAC breakthroughs between the small and full-height tests at 1.3 BV/h differed by ~59 BVs. The WAC breakthroughs for small, medium, and full-height tests at 1.8 BV/h were consistent at 240 BVs. The 50% Cs breakthroughs were nominally equivalent for all column tests. The common transition zones and onsets of Cs breakthrough at the 1.8 BV/h tests indicated that the Cs mass transfers were equivalent and thus the <30-mesh CST Cs load performance at the small scale successfully modeled that of the full-height system. It is recommended that the <30-mesh CST be used in subsequent 10-mL CST bed tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Characterizing falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales: Research Performance Progress Report (RPPR-1)

Sandia will construct a cold flow receiver test platform in order to characterize falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales. While Sandia has extensive experience in R&D of falling particle curtain receivers, most have been at pilot scale and smaller - on the order of 1 MW th with characteristic dimensions of nominally 1-2 m to adequately collect solar energy from the heliostat field at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF). However, scaling up receivers to commercially relevant scales (25 MW th and above) will require a thorough understanding of particle curtain dynamics at larger scales, especially longer drop heights, for design certainty. The goal of this project will be to construct a cold falling particle curtain test rig capable of simulating particle characteristics that are expected in a commercial scale CSP plant, namely the drop height, curtain thickness, and particle mass flow rate (normalized by length of curtain). This will enable data collection on curtain opacity and spread, both of which are correlated to receiver efficiency and reliable construction, for commercially relevant scales. It will also permit validation of numerical models that will enable detailed receiver characterization and design past currently validated scales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Scaling Containment on a Large Centrifuge

Containment science concerns the trapping or leakage of radioactive cavity gases from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). The most physically relevant data for validation of containment science comes from legacy UNE testing or large field-scale chemical explosions. Field-scale tests can inform on the degree of residual stress imparted to host geology and possible formation of an accompanying gas-containing “stress cage”, for example, as a function of chemical explosion yield. However, field testing can be expensive, difficult to conduct, and challenging to instrument with limitations on data coverage (i.e., the number of boreholes; difficult coring through damage zones). Small-scale laboratory tests are typically simpler to conduct and more thoroughly characterize, but may not include the right scale of containment processes for stress-cage or chimney formation. This report presents the theory and fundamentals of large centrifuge physical modeling, including a history of explosive or similar testing relevant to containment science investigations on centrifuges. Subscale models with embedded chemical explosives in the enhanced gravity of a large centrifuge can represent hundreds of meters of depth and large explosions not otherwise attainable in the laboratory as based on scaling of length, energy, and other processes by the g-factor of the centrifuge (i.e., the number of times larger the centrifugal force is than the gravitational force on the Earth’s surface). The centrifuge uniquely joins the simplicity and exhaustiveness of laboratory-scale characterization with the physics of field-scale processes. This report is part of Sandia National Laboratories’ (SNL’s) effort to prepare for physical modeling with approximately one-meter tall geologic models of stress cage and/or chimney formation on its 29-foot [8.84 m] radius centrifuge with a load capacity of 1.6 million 𝑔-pounds [726 𝑔-ton]. The scaling relationships herein will inform model design decisions and performance requirements for in-flight sensors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Characterizing falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales: Research Performance Progress Report (RPPR-1)

Sandia will construct a cold flow receiver test platform in order to characterize falling particle curtain receivers at commercially relevant scales. While Sandia has extensive experience in R&D of falling particle curtain receivers, most have been at pilot scale and smaller - on the order of 1 MWth with characteristic dimensions of nominally 1-2 m to adequately collect solar energy from the heliostat field at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF). However, scaling up receivers to commercially relevant scales (25 MWth and above) will require a thorough understanding of particle curtain dynamics at larger scales, especially longer drop heights, for design certainty. The goal of this project will be to construct a cold falling particle curtain test rig capable of simulating particle characteristics that are expected in a commercial scale CSP plant, namely the drop height, curtain thickness, and particle mass flow rate (normalized by length of curtain). This will enable data collection on curtain opacity and spread, both of which are correlated to receiver efficiency and reliable construction, for commercially relevant scales. It will also permit validation of numerical models that will enable detailed receiver characterization and design past currently validated scales.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Scale Microfluidics for Transport in Shale Fabric

We develop a microfluidic experimental platform to study solute transport in multi-scale fracture networks with a disparity of spatial scales ranging between two and five orders of magnitude. Using the experimental scaling relationship observed in Marcellus shales between fracture aperture and frequency, the microfluidic design of the fracture network spans all length scales from the micron (1 μ) to the dm (10 dm). This intentional `tyranny of scales’ in the design, a determining feature of shale fabric, introduces unique complexities during microchip fabrication, microfluidic flow-through experiments, imaging, data acquisition and interpretation. Here, we establish best practices to achieve a reliable experimental protocol, critical for reproducible studies involving multi-scale physical micromodels spanning from the Darcy- to the pore-scale (dm to μm). With this protocol, two fracture networks are created: a macrofracture network with fracture apertures between 5 and 500 μm and a microfracture network with fracture apertures between 1 and 500 μm. The latter includes the addition of 1 μm ‘microfractures’, at a bearing of 55°, to the backbone of the former. Comparative analysis of the breakthrough curves measured at corresponding locations along primary, secondary and tertiary fractures in both models allows one to assess the scale and the conditions at which microfractures may impact passive transport.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Influence of Intermittency on the Quasi-perpendicular Scaling in Three-dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Solar wind fluctuations reveal the ubiquity of intermittency, which is believed to affect the spectral signatures of turbulence. In this work, based on simulation of driven compressible MHD turbulence, we apply the wavelet technique to the magnetic field and velocity to identify intermittency, and we analyze the influence of the intermittency on the quasi-perpendicular scaling in the inertial range. The numerical results show that the original magnetic and velocity fluctuations are anisotropic, and have a power anisotropy with a spectral index approaching the Iroshnikov–Kraichnan −3/2 scaling in the direction quasi-perpendicular to the local mean magnetic field. As in observations of the solar wind fluctuations, as the scale decreases in the simulation, the calculated probability distribution functions (pdfs) of the wavelet coefficients become extended on both tails of the non-Gaussian distribution, with a rapid increase in flatness. After intermittency has been removed from the driven turbulence, at each scale, the pdfs approach a Gaussian distribution, with the flatness being ∼3. Meanwhile, the quasi-perpendicular scaling for both fluctuations becomes steeper and close to a Kolmogorov −5/3 scaling, which may be a result of the stronger intermittency in the quasi-perpendicular direction and at the smaller scales. These results suggest that there is intermittency superposed on the “background” turbulence that seems to have the Kolmogorov scaling, whereby the overall slope is getting flatter with the involvement of intermittency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A parametric investigation of ride quality rating scales

The relative merits of various category scales for the prediction of human discomfort response to vibration and the mathematical relationships that allow for transformations of subjective data from one scale to another scale were determined. A total of 16 category scales were studied and these represented various parametric combinations of polarity, scale type, and number of scalar points. Sixteen subject groups were used and each subject group evaluated its comfort/discomfort to vertical sinusoidal vibration using one of the rating scales. The passenger ride quality apparatus which can expose six subjects simultaneously to predetermined vibrations was utilized. The vibration stimuli were composed of repeats of selected sinusoidal frequencies applied at each of nine peak floor acceleration levels. A higher degree of reliability and discriminability was generally obtained from unipolar continuous type scales containing either seven or nine scalar points as opposed to the other scales investigated.

Dempsey, T. K.↗

Large-scale V/STOL testing

Several facets of large-scale testing of V/STOL aircraft configurations are discussed with particular emphasis on test experience in the Ames 40- by 80-foot wind tunnel. Examples of powered-lift test programs are presented in order to illustrate tradeoffs confronting the planner of V/STOL test programs. It is indicated that large-scale V/STOL wind-tunnel testing can sometimes compete with small-scale testing in the effort required (overall test time) and program costs because of the possibility of conducting a number of different tests with a single large-scale model where several small-scale models would be required. The benefits of both high- and full-scale Reynolds numbers, more detailed configuration simulation, and number and type of onboard measurements increase rapidly with scale. Planning must be more detailed at large scale in order to balance the trade-offs between the increased costs, as number of measurements and model configuration variables increase and the benefits of larger amounts of information coming out of one test.

Koenig, D. G.↗

Improved subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation

The paper analyzes models for subgrid-scale turbulence. The analysis indicates that there is sufficient information in the resolved scales to determine some characteristics of the complete flow field. The kinetic energy of the small-scale motions can be decomposed into two parts: one results from the large scales and is correlated with them, and the other part is uncorrelated which leads to a two-component eddy-viscosity model. The 'production equals dissipation' argument does not apply to the small scales in the decay of turbulence because it does not account for the uncorrelated component. The exchange between the large and small scales takes place mainly between the smallest scales of the former and the largest scales of the latter; this argument is the basis of a new model shown to be superior to the Smagorinsky model (1963).

Bardina, J.↗

The diurnal interaction between convection and peninsular-scale forcing over South Florida

One of the outstanding problems in modern meterology is that of describing in detail the manner in which larger scales of motion interact with, influence and are influenced by successively smaller scales of motion. The present investigation is concerned with a study of the diurnal evolution of convection, the interaction between the peninsular-scale convergence and convection, and the role of the feedback produced by the cloud-scale downdrafts in the maintenance of the convection. Attention is given to the analysis, the diurnal cycle of the network area-averaged divergence, convective-scale divergence, convective mass transports, and the peninsular scale divergence. The links established in the investigation between the large scale (peninsular), the mesoscale (network), and the convective scale (cloud) are found to be of fundamental importance to the understanding of the initiation, maintenance, and decay of deep precipitating convection and to its theoretical parameterization.

Cooper, H. J.↗

Small-scale eruptive filaments on the quiet sun

A study of a little known class of eruptive events on the quiet sun was conducted. All of 61 small-scale eruptive filamentary structures were identified in a systematic survey of 32 days of H alpha time-lapse films of the quiet sun acquired at Big Bear Solar Observatory. When fully developed, these structures have an average length of 15 arc seconds before eruption. They appear to be the small-scale analog of large-scale eruptive filaments observed against the disk. At the observed rate of 1.9 small-scale eruptive features per field of view per average 7.0 hour day, the rate of occurence of these events on the sun were estimated to be greater than 600 per 24 hour day.. The average duration of the eruptive phase was 26 minutes while the average lifetime from formation through eruption was 70 minutes. A majority of the small-scale filamentary sturctures were spatially related to cancelling magnetic features in line-of-sight photospheric magnetograms. Similar to large-scale filaments, the small-scale filamentary structures sometimes divided opposite polarity cancelling fragments but often had one or both ends terminating at a cancellation site. Their high numbers appear to reflect the much greater flux on the quiet sun. From their characteristics, evolution, and relationship to photospheric magnetic flux, it was concluded that the structures described are small-scale eruptive filaments and are a subset of all filaments.

Hermans, Linda M.↗

Hybrid scaled structural dynamic models and their use in damping prediction

Analytical and experimental techniques for the prediction and ground verification of the damped structural dynamics of space structures are developed. The options available for similarity-scaled model testing, including replica and multiple scale approaches, are reviewed. For the case when the distortion of potentially dissipative or nonlinear joints, which would be required in multiple-scale modeling, is impractical, a new type of modeling is introduced, which uses a hybrid of joints at replica scale and connecting elements at a modified multiple scale. The model design requirements for replica, multiple-scale, and hybrid models are developed, and the expected scaling of nonlinear dissipation in joints is derived. A damping prediction scheme is developed that relies on a finite element model of the undamped structure and measurements of the individual joint properties to predict the modal damping of the truss attributable to the joints. A hybrid-scaled model of a segment of the Space Station was built and dynamically tested. The predicted and measured truss damping compared favorably.

Crawley, Edward F.↗

Evaluation of some scale effects in the response and failure of composite beams

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting full-scale behavior of composite beams loaded in tension and flexure was investigated. Classical laws of similitude were applied to fabricate and test replica model beams to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were conducted using graphite-epoxy composite beams having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. Results indicated that the elastic response of scaled composite beams was independent of specimen size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled beams of certain laminate stacking sequences. Weibull statistical and fracture mechanics based models were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size in failure.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

Scale effects in the response and failure of fiber reinforced composite laminates loaded in tension and in flexure

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting the full-scale behavior of flat composite coupons loaded in tension and beam-columns loaded in flexure is examined. Classical laws of similitude are applied to fabricate and test replica model specimens to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were performed on graphite-epoxy composite specimens having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. From the experiments it was deduced that the elastic response of scaled composite specimens was independent of size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled specimens of certain laminate stacking sequences. A Weibull statistical model and a fracture mechanics based model were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size on strength.

Jackson, Karen E.↗