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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-based balance of system cost modeling for offshore wind power plants in the United States

This paper describes the development of a process-based and open-source balance of system cost model that provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays caused by weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation. Installation times show reasonable agreement with real data. Project cost sensitivities are investigated to compute the system-level impact of different design choices. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. These values quantify the cost-benefit tradeoffs and show a net-cost savings of decreasing numbers of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations. These results demonstrate that the balance of system model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗

Tutorial: The equations of electron emission and their evaluation

Electron emission and transport through and over potential barriers is an essential process requiring modeling and simulation to meet the design needs and characterization of an exceedingly broad range of technologically important devices and processes. The simulation and description of thermal, field, and photoemission, and the related concerns of space–charge affected electron flow, often make use of specialized formulations developed in the early days of quantum mechanics. Advancements in the utilization of electron sources and particularly the simulation of devices and applications using advanced particle-in-cell and trajectory methods for beam optics codes create a strong need for a pedagogical account of the emission models to ensure correct numerical evaluation of their equations. This Tutorial starts from simple phenomenological accounts and progressively builds to comprehensive models emphasizing straightforward and often rapid calculation. It recommends formulations to supplant the canonical Richardson–Laue–Dushman (thermal), Fowler–Nordheim (field), Fowler–DuBridge (photo), and Baroody (secondary) equations and provides a useful formulation of space–charge affected flow commonly described by the Child–Langmuir relation that takes into account cathode dependence on surface field.

Physics↗

Data From: "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater," published in Nature Geoscience, 2026. This study seeks to answer how various ages of groundwater interact with mountainous streamflow in mountainous headwaters such as the East River. It includes various model-data processing scripts, primarily for ParFlow-CLM analysis of simulated water years 2015-2021, and two numerical warming experiments (+2.5 and +4.0 degrees C), including run scripts, forcing scripts, and post-processing, as well as comparison to observation datasets, detailed below. This data requires the use of R (.r, .rmd), Python (.py), Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab (.ipynb), ParFLOW-CLM, EcoSLIM. Further information on the use of all file formats mentioned below (e.g. .tff. .nc) are provided within the associated scripts and directory where the files are located. Contents & Usage ASO/: ​​Contains the bash and python scripts used to convert airborne snow observatory (ASO) data (ASO, 2023) in various data formats (georeferenced tiff file, NetCDF, UTM, and to latitude/longitude) then regrided to the ParFlow equivalent grid. Output data are in regrid_regll_data.zip and subsequently visualized and analyzed in plot_and_compare.py for Supplementary Figures A14 and A15. The wksht_ASO_comparison.xlsx spreadsheet is used to calculate the data for Supplementary Figure A16. EcoSLIM/: Contains the scripts and input files to run the EcoSLIM particle tracking simulations (/run_scripts) and the post-processing python script (/plot_scripts/eco_agedist_plots.ipynb). Jasechko et al./: Contains the jupyter notebook (Extract_Elevation.ipynb) to determine the outlet elevations of the 260 watersheds used in Jasechko et al. (2016), and the corresponding table, Table_S1_Watersheds_alt.csv. Used to create Supplementary Information Figure A2. PLM_Wells/: Contains the QA/QC-ed groundwater level time series of the PLM-1 and PLM-6 Monitoring Wells from Faybishenko et al. (2023), reformatted to water years used for Supplementary Figures A19 and and A20. ParFlow/: Contains the input files and run scripts to run ParFlow-CLM (/run_scripts), the python and tool command language (Tcl) scripts to create and distribute the ParFlow forcing simulation files (/forcing), and various scripts and intermediary files to analyze the model outputs (/post_process). SQUIRE/: Contains the processing scripts and intermediary files for the Surface QUantitatIve pRecipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) data (Grover, 2023) used to generate Supplementary Figure A18. USGS_Streamflow/: Contains the raw and gap-filled United States Geological Survey streamflow data (U.S. Geological Survey, 2026) used at the Almont station (site number 09112500). Gap-filling is performed in the R script with data from the Taylor station (site number 09110000). (/USGS_09112500_EAST_RIVER_AT_ALMONT_GAP_FILLED/code_almont_streamflow_gap_fill.Rmd). discharge/: Contains the gap-filled discharge data at the Watershed Function SFA East River pumphouse site (Newcomer et al., 2022) used to generate Supplementary Figure A13 and to compute hourly Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (NSE) in Table A4. snotel_and_flux_tower/: Contains the snow telemetry data (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) from the Butte (site ID 380) and Schofield (site ID 737) stations, reformatted by water year, accessed with the snotelr R package. Used to create Supplementary Figure A17. Also contains the flux tower observational data (FluxTower_Pumphouse_ESS-DIVE.ET_only.h.txt) from Ryken et al. (2022) and sap flux transpiration data (MaxB_Transpiration_5Sites.daily_sums.h.txt) from Ryken (2021), used to create Supplementary Figures A22 and A23, respectively. Raw EcoSLIM model outputs are in excess of 24TB, and are stored on National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) and publicly available via the external link provided in the paper.

atmospheric warming↗

Multi-site reaction dynamics through multi-fragment density matrix embedding

The practical description of disordered chemical reactions, where the reactions involve multiple species at multiple sites, is presently a challenge using correlated electronic structure methods due to their high computational cost and steep scaling. Here, we describe the gradient theory of multi-fragment density matrix embedding theory, which potentially provides a minimal computational framework to model such processes at the correlated electron level. We present the derivation and implementation of the gradient theory, its validation on model systems and chemical reactions using density matrix embedding, and its application to a molecular dynamics simulation of proton transport in a small water cluster, a simple example of multi-site reaction dynamics.

Chemistry↗

Chemical evolution of local post-starburst galaxies: implications for the mass–metallicity relation

ABSTRACT We use the stellar fossil record to constrain the stellar metallicity evolution and star-formation histories of the post-starburst (PSB) regions within 45 local PSB galaxies from the MaNGA survey. The direct measurement of the regions’ stellar metallicity evolution is achieved by a new two-step metallicity model that allows for stellar metallicity to change at the peak of the starburst. We also employ a Gaussian process noise model that accounts for correlated errors introduced by the observational data reduction or inaccuracies in the models. We find that a majority of PSB regions (69 per cent at >1σ significance) increased in stellar metallicity during the recent starburst, with an average increase of 0.8 dex and a standard deviation of 0.4 dex. A much smaller fraction of PSBs are found to have remained constant (22 per cent) or declined in metallicity (9 per cent, average decrease 0.4 dex, standard deviation 0.3 dex). The pre-burst metallicities of the PSB galaxies are in good agreement with the mass–metallicity (MZ) relation of local star-forming galaxies. These results are consistent with hydrodynamic simulations, which suggest that mergers between gas-rich galaxies are the primary formation mechanism of local PSBs, and rapid metal recycling during the starburst outweighs the impact of dilution by any gas inflows. The final mass-weighted metallicities of the PSB galaxies are consistent with the MZ relation of local passive galaxies. Our results suggest that rapid quenching following a merger-driven starburst is entirely consistent with the observed gap between the stellar mass–metallicity relations of local star-forming and passive galaxies.

Leung, Ho-Hin (ORCID:0000000304865178)↗

Analysis of a Fluidized-Bed Particle/Supercritical-CO2 Heat Exchanger in a Concentrating Solar Power System

Concentrating solar power (CSP) development has focused on increasing the energy conversion efficiency and lowering the capital cost. To improve performance, CSP research is moving to high-temperature and high-efficiency designs. One technology approach is to use inexpensive, high-temperature heat transfer fluids and storage, integrated with a high-efficiency power cycle such as the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton power cycle. The sCO 2 Brayton power cycle has strong potential to achieve performance targets of 50% thermal-to-electric efficiency and dry cooling at an ambient temperature of up to 40 °C and to reduce the cost of power generation. Solid particles have been proposed as a possible high-temperature heat transfer or storage medium that is inexpensive and stable at high temperatures above 1000 °C. The particle/sCO 2 heat exchanger (HX) provides a connection between the particles and sCO 2 fluid in emerging sCO 2 power cycles. This article presents heat transfer modeling to analyze the particle/sCO 2 HX design and assess design tradeoffs including the HX cost. The heat transfer process was modeled based on a particle/sCO 2 counterflow configuration, and empirical heat transfer correlations for the fluidized bed and sCO 2 were used to calculate heat transfer area and estimate the HX cost. A computational fluid dynamics simulation was applied to characterize particle distribution and fluidization. This article shows a path to achieve the cost and performance objectives for a particle/sCO 2 HX design by using fluidized-bed technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimation of the Chances to Find New Phenomena at the LHC in a Model-Agnostic Combinatorial Analysis

In this paper, we estimate the number of event topologies that have the potential to be produced in 𝑝𝑝 collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) without violating kinematic and other constraints. We use numerical calculations and combinatorics, guided by large-scale Monte Carlo simulations of Standard Model (SM) processes. Then, we set the upper limit on the probability that new physics may escape detection, assuming a model-agnostic approach. The calculated probability is unexpectedly large, and the fact that LHC has not found new physics until now is not entirely surprising. Theoretical limitations and experimental challenges in observing new physics within the studied exclusive event classes are examined.

BSM↗

Cell-free Scaled Production and Adjuvant Addition to a Recombinant Major Outer Membrane Protein from Chlamydia muridarum for Vaccine Development

Subunit vaccines offer advantages over more traditional inactivated or attenuated whole-cell-derived vaccines in safety, stability, and standard manufacturing. To achieve an effective protein-based subunit vaccine, the protein antigen often needs to adopt a native-like conformation. This is particularly important for pathogensurface antigens that are membrane-bound proteins. Cell-free methods have been successfully used to produce correctly folded functional membrane protein through the co-translation of nanolipoprotein particles (NLPs), commonly known as nanodiscs. This strategy can be used to produce subunit vaccines consisting of membrane proteins in a lipid-bound environment. However, cell-free protein production is often limited to small scale (<1 mL). The amount of protein produced in small-scale production runs is usually sufficient for biochemical and biophysical studies. However, the cell-free process needs to be scaled up, optimized, and carefully tested to obtain enough protein for vaccine studies in animal models. Other processes involved in vaccine production, such as purification, adjuvant addition, and lyophilization, need to be optimized in parallel. This paper reports the development of a scaled-up protocol to express, purify, and formulate a membrane-bound protein subunit vaccine

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

In this work, we assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Industrial CO2 Capture Retrofit Database (IND CCRD)

OBSOLETE CCRD - SUPERSEDED<p>This carbon capture retrofit database (CCRD) model allows users to evaluate the cost of carbon capture on industrial sources (ammonia, cement, ethanol, hydrogen, and natural gas processing). The model was created by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) based on the technical report titled Cost of Capturing CO2 from Industrial Sources (NETL/DOE-2022/3319). Revised 12/21/22.</p>

Hughes, Sydney↗

Modeling Streamflow and Sediment Transport Under Current and Future Climates at the West Valley Site - 20231

Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes such as streamflow and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level hydrologic model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) system-level model for the West Valley Site in western New York. For this PPA model, a watershed model was developed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and used to evaluate water and sediment fluxes in nearby streams draining the Site. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. This challenge is especially important when the spatial and temporal scales of process and system level models differ. In this instance, the SWAT watershed model and GoldSim PPA model have similar spatial scales of stream reaches and sub-catchments within a single watershed (approximately hundreds to tens of thousands of square meters, but the temporal scales differ considerably. The SWAT model calculates streamflow and sediment transport rates at the daily scale, while the PPA model requires long-term average values that are applied over hundreds to thousands of year-long periods. As such, distributions of daily climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity were developed to force a transient SWAT model that captures the dynamic behavior of the watershed in response to daily changes in the weather. Output from the model, which includes stream flow (m{sup 3}/y) and sediment transport rate (Mg/y) is then averaged over a 100-year period as an approximation for the long-term average values which can be applied in GoldSim. A single SWAT model was run 5000 times with varying climatic inputs and deterministic soil, land use, and elevation data, and the range of outputs were compiled into a distribution which can be implemented stochastically into the PPA Model. Additionally, this paper includes a high-level discussion of how changes in future climate affect weather input distributions, and a summary of how those changes in weather affect the outcomes from the SWAT model and the inputs into the PPA model. In this analysis, future climate distributions were developed based on climate research documenting the expected changes to precipitation and temperature in western New York. The 5,000 SWAT simulations were then repeated with these future climate distributions, and the resulting output was implemented into the PPA Model as hydrologic conditions under a future climate. In the current version of the PPA Model, hydrologic parameters change linearly from the 'current climate' conditions to the 'future climate' conditions over a period of 100 years, after which they remain constant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Computational modeling of microalgal biofilm growth in heterogeneous rotating algal biofilm reactors (RABRs) for wastewater treatment

Rotating algal biofilm reactors (RABRs) are innovative systems designed to cultivate microalgae biofilms efficiently. In this paper, we have developed a novel mathematical model to accurately capture the growth dynamics of algae biofilms within RABR. By considering the spatial heterogeneity of the RABR, we introduce a PDE-based model that addresses the spatial variations across the substratum, enabling a more accurate simulation of biofilm growth in RABRs. The photosynthesis process is modeled through reactive kinetics, driving the growth of the algae biofilm. To analyze the system's behavior, we employ finite difference numerical methods to solve the complex PDE model. We then conduct extensive numerical simulations to understand algae biofilm growth in the RABR environment under various operational factors and environmental conditions. One primary focus in these simulations is to investigate the impact of various harvesting strategies, harvesting frequencies, light intensity, and light exposure on the overall biomass productivity of the algae biofilm. The numerical results provide valuable insights into optimizing algae biofilm growth and designing harvesting techniques in RABR systems. Our proposed novel mathematical model provides an effective platform for the theoretical investigation and design of RABRs for wastewater treatment.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Quantifying Uncertainties of Microscopic Nuclear Theories

The goal of this project was to produce modernized nuclear data libraries of light ion fusion reactions and actinide fission product yields. Such libraries are essential input in both stockpile science but also fundamental science (nucleosynthesis, superheavy nuclei). When such libraries are used to model complex processes involving exotic, very short-lived nuclei that have not been measured experimentally, the underlying nuclear data come from theoretical models, the predictive power of which needs to be quantified, together with its uncertainties. By teaming up nuclear theorists and statisticians, we built comprehensive theoretical frameworks based on the most fundamental theories of fusion and fission that we coupled for the first time with a Bayesian framework with machine learning techniques for uncertainty quantification. Our results include: (1) statistical emulators for neutron-alpha scattering, and the fission product mass yields of neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu, which will enable developers to generate random realizations of the corresponding data for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in applications; (2) the first complete and most accurate ab initio prediction of the S-factor for proton capture on 7 Be, which – combined with UQ – may become the recommended value at solar energies in the next review of solar fusion cross sections; (3) statistical emulators for fission mass yields in the neutron-induced fission of 239 Pu; (4) the first quantification of how uncertainties in nuclear forces impact fission properties that are relevant in nucleosynthesis simulations to explain how heavy elements are formed in the Cosmos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance of Closed Loop Venturi Aspirated Aeration System: Experimental Study and Numerical Analysis with Discrete Bubble Model

In wastewater treatment plants, aeration plays a significant role as it encourages aerobic respiration of microbes, which are necessary to break down carbonaceous matter in the waste stream. This process can account for the majority of energy use in wastewater treatment plants. The aeration process is also necessary in odor control in lagoons and in the aquaculture industry. Generally, the aeration process is accomplished with compressors or blowers which can be of low efficiency due to ideal gas laws. This study introduces the idea of increasing aeration efficiency by looping water from a reservoir through a piping network which includes a venturi aspirator at its inlet. For this purpose, an experimental study has been conducted in a laboratory setup with a pump which pulls water from a tank, passes it through a Venturi aspirator and a helical piping network intended to increase bubble residence time, before depositing it back into the bulk fluid tank. This same process is modeled computationally, using a discrete bubble method (DBM), with good agreement with experiments. The overall purpose here is to determine the optimal configurations for standard aeration efficiency (SAE) and the standard oxygen transfer rate (SOTR). A parametric study has been implemented using the DBM based on different hydraulic and flow parameters. The model is also used to predict the SAE of a hypothetical aeration system. Results indicate that it is possible to achieve SAE values in the range of surface aerators or submersed jet aerators using the proposed aeration system with less complex components, thereby decreasing overall costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

User Guide for the Public Industrial CO2 Capture Retrofit Database Models

OBSOLETE CCRD – SUPERSEDED<p>The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) user manual accompanies the carbon capture retrofit database (CCRD) model that allows users to evaluate the cost of carbon capture on industrial sources (ammonia, cement, ethanol, hydrogen, and natural gas processing). The model was created by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) based on the technical report titled &quot;Cost of Capturing CO2 from Industrial Sources&quot; (NETL/DOE-2022/3319). Revised 12/21/22.</p>

Hughes, Sydney↗