Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Analyses of Model-Based Predictive Control for a S-CO 2 Brayton Cycle Power Converter

The supercritical carbon dioxide (S-CO 2 ) Brayton cycle is a promising alternative to steam cycles as an energy converter for advanced nuclear reactors as well as fossil-fired and concentrated solar power plants. For advanced reactors, such as Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs), the S-CO 2 cycle offers the benefits of high cycle efficiency, very compact turbomachinery, and elimination of sodium-water reactions, all of which may enable improved economics. The efficiency gains calculated for the S-CO 2 cycle are particularly significant if advantage can be taken of the sharp changes in the carbon dioxide thermo-physical properties near the critical point. On the other hand, the same property variations give rise to challenges in the cycle design, analysis, and control. The onset of two-phase flow (where the minimum cycle temperature and pressure drop drop below the critical value) can degrade compressor performance and potentially cause damage to the compressor blades. In previous work, the feasibility of the Model-based Predictive Control (MPC) approach was assessed for improving regulation of the precooler outlet temperature. A linear reduced-order model for the precooler was generated and for this simplified standalone system operating with an MPC controller the response of outlet temperature was evaluated through simulations. These evaluations included the presence of temperature measurement time delay representing a degraded sensor. It was demonstrated that the MPC controller maintained stable precooler temperature for those delay cases where a proportional-integral controller became unstable. In the present work the simulations have been extended to evaluate the MPC controller operating under more realistic conditions, namely in the split-flow recompression cycle non-linear plant. This compares with the previous standalone reduced-order linear system described above. In the present work the MPC-based control scheme was implemented in a GPASS 1-D systems code representation of the split-flow recompression cycle. The performance of the controller was again investigated for degraded sensor conditions and compared to that of a proportional-integral controller. The results were qualitatively similar to the previous results with the MPC controller and again providing superior stability characteristics. This work provides a sound starting point for the development of model-based control systems. In particular, the MPC control approach applied to Multiple Input Multiple Output systems can be used to synchronize the operation of the different system components to improve control system dynamic performance.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Numerical investigation of Lower Tuscaloosa Sandstone and Selma Chalk caprock under geological CO 2 sequestration conditions: mineral precipitation and permeability evolution

Abstract A numerical model was developed using CrunchFlow to simulate reactive transport and porosity and permeability changes of sandstone and carbonate rock samples taken from the Lower Tuscaloosa Formation and the Selma Chalk Formation, Jackson County, MS, USA. The model predicted a permeability decrease from 2190 mD to 2038 mD for the Lower Tuscaloosa Sandstone sample in a static batch reactor after 180 days of exposure to CO 2 ‐saturated brine, which is consistent with measured permeability results. The model predicted a negligible permeability change from 2.00 mD to 2.08 mD for the Selma Chalk carbonate sample after 180 days of exposure to CO 2 ‐saturated brine. Based on model prediction, key mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions in the Lower Tuscaloosa Sandstone sample include dissolution of quartz, chlorite, and feldspar, as well as precipitation of amorphous silica and kaolinite. For the Selma Chalk carbonate sample, key predicted reactions include dissolution of calcite, quartz and chlorite, and precipitation of kaolinite and amorphous silica. Initial porosity, initial feldspar content and the exponent n value (related to pore structure and tortuosity) used in permeability calculations were three important factors affecting permeability evolution of sandstone samples under CO 2 sequestration conditions. The small permeability change predicted for both the Lower Tuscaloosa Sandstone and the Selma Chalk caprock after exposure to CO 2 ‐saturated brine suggests that poro‐permeability changes during CO 2 injection into the Lower Tuscaloosa Formation are not likely to significantly affect reservoir and seal quality. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zhang, Liwei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shell Predictive Battery Life Models (SPBLM) [SWR-20-35]

Battery life models to predict the capacity fade and resistance growth of lithium-ion batteries from various manufacturers with different chemistries. The battery life model is trained on experimental test data, and accounts for calendar and cycling aging mechanisms as functions of cell environmental conditions and use. The battery life model is then used to predict capacity fade and resistance growth under any arbitrary aging scenario.

Smith, Kandler↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data to Accompany: PM2.5 is insufficient to explain personal PAH exposure

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality index (AQI) data from outdoor stationary monitors and Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke density data from satellites are often used as proxies for personal chemical exposure. Silicone wristbands can quantify more individualized exposure data than stationary air monitors or smoke satellites. However, it is not understood how these proxy measurements compare to chemical data measured from wristbands. We hypothesized that predictive models for personal chemical exposure would be significantly improved by expanding beyond stationary PM2.5 AQI data or satellite HMS data to also include environmental and behavioral information. In Eugene, Oregon, participants wore daily wristbands, carried a phone that recorded locations, and answered daily questionnaires for a seven-day period in multiple seasons. We gathered publicly available daily PM2.5 AQI data and HMS data. We analyzed wristbands for 94 organic chemicals, including 53 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Wristband chemical detections and concentrations, behavioral variables (e.g., time spent indoors), and environmental conditions (e.g., PM2.5 AQI) significantly differed between seasons. Machine learning models were fit to predict personal chemical exposure using PM2.5 AQI only, HMS only, and a multivariate feature set including PM2.5 AQI, HMS, and other environmental and behavioral information. On average, the multivariate models increased predictive accuracy by approximately 70% compared to either the AQI model or the HMS model for all chemicals modeled. This study provides evidence that PM2.5 AQI data alone or HMS data alone is insufficient to explain personal chemical exposures. Our results identify additional key predictors of personal chemical exposure.

Bramer, Lisa M↗
DOE OSTI2015

Effect of secondary electron emission on the plasma sheath

In this experiment, plasma sheath potential profiles are measured over boron nitride walls in argon plasma and the effect of secondary electron emission is observed. Results are compared to a kinetic model. Plasmas are generated with a number density of 3 × 10{sup 12} m{sup −3} at a pressure of 10{sup −4} Torr-Ar, with a 1%–16% fraction of energetic primary electrons. The sheath potential profile at the surface of each sample is measured with emissive probes. The electron number densities and temperatures are measured in the bulk plasma with a planar Langmuir probe. The plasma is non-Maxwellian, with isotropic and directed energetic electron populations from 50 to 200 eV and hot and cold Maxwellian populations from 3.6 to 6.4 eV and 0.3 to 1.3 eV, respectively. Plasma Debye lengths range from 4 to 7 mm and the ion-neutral mean free path is 0.8 m. Sheath thicknesses range from 20 to 50 mm, with the smaller thickness occurring near the critical secondary electron emission yield of the wall material. Measured floating potentials are within 16% of model predictions. Measured sheath potential profiles agree with model predictions within 5 V (∼1 T{sub e}), and in four out of six cases deviate less than the measurement uncertainty of 1 V.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Energy Storage Sizing Taking Into Account Forecast Uncertainties and Receding Horizon Operation

Energy storage systems (ESS) have the potential to be very beneficial for applications such as reducing the ramping of generators, peak shaving, and balancing not only the variability introduced by renewable energy sources, but also the uncertainty introduced by errors in their forecasts. Optimal usage of storage may result in reduced generation costs and an increased use of renewable energy. However, optimally sizing these devices is a challenging problem. This paper aims to provide the tools to optimally size an ESS under the assumption that it will be operated under a model predictive control scheme and that the forecast of the renewable energy resources include prediction errors. A two-stage stochastic model predictive control is formulated and solved, where the optimal usage of the storage is simultaneously determined along with the optimal generation outputs and size of the storage. Wind forecast errors are taken into account in the optimization problem via probabilistic constraints for which an analytical form is derived. This allows for the stochastic optimization problem to be solved directly, without using sampling-based approaches, and sizing the storage to account not only for a wide range of potential scenarios, but also for a wide range of potential forecast errors. In the proposed formulation, we account for the fact that errors in the forecast affect how the device is operated later in the horizon and that a receding horizon scheme is used in operation to optimally use the available storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Examination of stiff ion temperature gradient mode physics in simulations of DIII-D H-mode transport

A systematic evaluation of gyrokinetic and gyrofluid model predictions of ion temperature gradient (ITG) stability and transport using parameters from DIII-D high confinement mode (H-mode) plasmas has been performed. The nonlinear CGYRO code is used to make the gyrokinetic predictions, and the quasilinear TGLF model for the corresponding gyrofluid predictions. The assessments are made at three radii (normalized toroidal flux ρtor = 0.4, 0.55, and 0.7) in three different plasma scenarios with varying levels of neutral beam heating and torque. For each of the nine cases (3 radii × 3 scenarios) considered, ITG turbulence is found to be the dominant long-wavelength instability and transport mechanism. The inclusions of both transverse magnetic fluctuations and dynamic fast beam ions are stabilizing for all cases considered, with strongest effects seen at ρor = 0.4 where the fast ion population and normalized plasma pressure β = 2μ0nT/B2 are highest. The further inclusion of parallel magnetic fluctuations does not have a meaningful impact on the ITG turbulence in these scenarios, but does destabilize (in combination with fast ions) new high-frequency instabilities at ρtor = 0.4 in the high power scenarios. In each case the linear and nonlinear ITG critical gradients are predicted to be lower than the measured ITG scale lengths and their associated uncertainties. Inclusion of equilibrium flow shear in the transport predictions generally leads to an upshift in effective critical gradient rather than a qualitative change in the predicted stiffness, with stronger responses typically seen in the gyrokinetic predictions than in the gyrofluid results. However, in most cases these upshifted gradients still remain below the measured values and their uncertainties. Although the predicted critical gradients are below the measured gradients, both models predicted flux-matching gradients consistent with measured values in six of the nine cases considered, with no clear systematic over- or underprediction. Thus, while the experimental ion temperature profiles do not appear to be closely pinned to the ITG critical gradient, both gyrokinetic and gyrofluid models are able to accurately match the measured gradients reasonably well in most cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpreting AI for fusion: An application to plasma profile analysis for tearing mode stability

Artificial intelligence models have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for various instabilities in fusion devices such as Tokamaks, including tearing modes (TM), edge localized modes, and disruptive events, but their opaque nature raises concerns about safety and trustworthiness when applied to fusion power plants. Here, we present a physics-based interpretation framework using a TM prediction model as a demonstration that is validated through a dedicated DIII-D TM avoidance experiment. By applying Shapley analysis, we identify how profiles such as rotation, temperature, and density contribute to the model's prediction of TM stability. Our analysis shows that in our experimental scenario, core electron temperature and rotation peaking play the primary role in TM stability, while density changes have smaller effects on stability. We show that off-axis ion temperature stabilizes TMs, suggesting that off-axis neutral beam heating can further stabilize this scenario. This work presents a generalizable ML-based event prediction methodology, from training to physics-driven interpretation, bridging the gap between physics understanding and opaque ML models.

Farre-Kaga, Hiro J. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United S↗
DOE OSTI2015

TU-G-204-06: Correlation Between Texture Analysis-Based Model Observer and Human Observer in Diagnosis of Ischemic Infarct in Non-Contrast Head CT of Adults

Purpose: To investigate the correlation between texture analysis-based model observer and human observer in the task of diagnosis of ischemic infarct in non-contrast head CT of adults. Methods: Non-contrast head CTs of five patients (2 M, 3 F; 58–83 y) with ischemic infarcts were retro-reconstructed using FBP and Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction (ASIR) of various levels (10–100%). Six neuro -radiologists reviewed each image and scored image quality for diagnosing acute infarcts by a 9-point Likert scale in a blinded test. These scores were averaged across the observers to produce the average human observer responses. The chief neuro-radiologist placed multiple ROIs over the infarcts. These ROIs were entered into a texture analysis software package. Forty-two features per image, including 11 GLRL, 5 GLCM, 4 GLGM, 9 Laws, and 13 2-D features, were computed and averaged over the images per dataset. The Fisher-coefficient (ratio of between-class variance to in-class variance) was calculated for each feature to identify the most discriminating features from each matrix that separate the different confidence scores most efficiently. The 15 features with the highest Fisher -coefficient were entered into linear multivariate regression for iterative modeling. Results: Multivariate regression analysis resulted in the best prediction model of the confidence scores after three iterations (df=11, F=11.7, p-value<0.0001). The model predicted scores and human observers were highly correlated (R=0.88, R-sq=0.77). The root-mean-square and maximal residual were 0.21 and 0.44, respectively. The residual scatter plot appeared random, symmetric, and unbiased. Conclusion: For diagnosis of ischemic infarct in non-contrast head CT in adults, the predicted image quality scores from texture analysis-based model observer was highly correlated with that of human observers for various noise levels. Texture-based model observer can characterize image quality of low contrast, subtle texture changes in addition to human observers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Knowledge-based prediction of three-dimensional dose distributions for external beam radiotherapy

Purpose: To demonstrate knowledge-based 3D dose prediction for external beam radiotherapy. Methods: Using previously treated plans as training data, an artificial neural network (ANN) was trained to predict a dose matrix based on patient-specific geometric and planning parameters, such as the closest distance (r) to planning target volume (PTV) and organ-at-risks (OARs). Twenty-three prostate and 43 stereotactic radiosurgery/radiotherapy (SRS/SRT) cases with at least one nearby OAR were studied. All were planned with volumetric-modulated arc therapy to prescription doses of 81 Gy for prostate and 12–30 Gy for SRS. Using these clinically approved plans, ANNs were trained to predict dose matrix and the predictive accuracy was evaluated using the dose difference between the clinical plan and prediction, δD = D{sub clin} − D{sub pred}. The mean (〈δD{sub r}〉), standard deviation (σ{sub δD{sub r}}), and their interquartile range (IQR) for the training plans were evaluated at a 2–3 mm interval from the PTV boundary (r{sub PTV}) to assess prediction bias and precision. Initially, unfiltered models which were trained using all plans in the cohorts were created for each treatment site. The models predict approximately the average quality of OAR sparing. Emphasizing a subset of plans that exhibited superior to the average OAR sparing during training, refined models were created to predict high-quality rectum sparing for prostate and brainstem sparing for SRS. Using the refined model, potentially suboptimal plans were identified where the model predicted further sparing of the OARs was achievable. Replans were performed to test if the OAR sparing could be improved as predicted by the model. Results: The refined models demonstrated highly accurate dose distribution prediction. For prostate cases, the average prediction bias for all voxels irrespective of organ delineation ranged from −1% to 0% with maximum IQR of 3% over r{sub PTV} ∈ [ − 6, 30] mm. The average prediction error was less than 10% for the same r{sub PTV} range. For SRS cases, the average prediction bias ranged from −0.7% to 1.5% with maximum IQR of 5% over r{sub PTV} ∈ [ − 4, 32] mm. The average prediction error was less than 8%. Four potentially suboptimal plans were identified for each site and subsequent replanning demonstrated improved sparing of rectum and brainstem. Conclusions: The study demonstrates highly accurate knowledge-based 3D dose predictions for radiotherapy plans.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Front-end engineering design (FEED) studies: a quantitative analysis

NETL has devised a methodology for normalizing FEED study metrics of interest and allowing cautious quantitative comparison across FEED studies. This presentation introduces the novel quantitative comparison methodology and presents results from utilizing this methodology to examine data presented in recent FEED study reports. The quantitative methodology developed for the examination of FEED study performance and cost also allows comparison of real-world performance and costs against NETL TEA model predicted performance and cost. Learnings from examining NETL model predicted performance and cost versus real world reported values are highlighted. These learnings provide insight into NETL TEA model uncertainty and highlight opportunities for further model development.

FEED Studies↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainability and extrapolation of machine learning models for predicting the glass transition temperature of polymers

Abstract Machine learning (ML) offers promising tools to develop surrogate models for polymers' structure–property relations. Surrogate models can be built upon existing polymer data and are useful for rapidly predicting the properties of unknown polymers. The accuracy of such ML models appears to depend on the feature space representation of polymers, the range of training data, and learning algorithms. Here, we establish connections between these factors for predicting the glass transition temperature (T g ) of polymers. Our analysis suggests linear models with fewer fitting parameters are as accurate as nonlinear models with many hidden and unexplainable parameters. Also, the performance of a monomer topology‐based ML model is found to be qualitatively identical to that of a physicochemical descriptor‐based ML model. We find that the ML models's performance in the extrapolative region is enhanced as the property range of the training data increases. Moreover, we establish newT g – polymer chemistry correlations via ML. Our work illustrates how ML can advance the fundamental understanding of polymer structure–property correlations and its efficacy for extrapolation problems.

Polymer Science↗
DOE OSTI2017

Strong Stellar-driven Outflows Shape the Evolution of Galaxies at Cosmic Dawn

We study galaxy mass assembly and cosmic star formation rate (SFR) at high redshift (z ≳ 4), by comparing data from multiwavelength surveys with predictions from the GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (gaea) model. gaea implements a stellar feedback scheme partially based on cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, which features strong stellar-driven outflows and mass-dependent timescales for the re-accretion of ejected gas. In previous work, we have shown that this scheme is able to correctly reproduce the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) up to z ∼ 3. We contrast model predictions with both rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) and optical luminosity functions (LFs), which are mostly sensitive to the SFR and stellar mass, respectively. We show that gaea is able to reproduce the shape and redshift evolution of both sets of LFs. We study the impact of dust on the predicted LFs, and we find that the required level of dust attenuation is in qualitative agreement with recent estimates based on the UV continuum slope. The consistency between data and model predictions holds for the redshift evolution of the physical quantities well beyond the redshift range considered for the calibration of the original model. In particular, we show that gaea is able to recover the evolution of the GSMF up to z ∼ 7 and the cosmic SFR density up to z ∼ 10.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigating the Dynamic Compaction Behavior of Brittle Powders

The compression of porous materials to full density is a complex physical and mechanical process. Modeling efforts to capture the compaction behavior of distended solids (e.g., porous materials or powders) have produced a variety of compaction models, each functionalized to address specific compaction mechanisms. Of the available models, those suited for high-strain-rate deformation associated with shock loading have generally been developed for ductile materials. Compaction models for brittle materials have only been developed for quasistatic loading conditions. No predictive models currently exist that successfully capture the physical processes and mechanics for shock compaction of brittle distended materials, such as sand and oxide powders. The primary hindrance in producing a dynamic compaction model for brittle distended materials is the lack of availability of high-fidelity, high-precision shock compaction data for validation. The proposed work is aimed at alleviating this issue by developing a high-precision testing method in combination with high-fidelity analysis methods to accurately and precisely determine the shocked state of an ideal test material, ceria powder, under uniaxial strain dynamic compaction. The measured shock compaction data from these brittle powder experiments is then used in initial computations to design a cylindrically converging shock compaction experiment within situ time-resolved shocked density measurements, employing proton radiography. The preliminary experimental and computational results obtained from these uniaxial strain dynamic compaction and cylindrically converging shock compaction experiments are presented. An experimental and computational path forwards to predictive model development is then proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗