Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Kojima-1Lb Is a Mildly Cold Neptune around the Brightest Microlensing Host Star

We report the analysis of additional multiband photometry and spectroscopy and new adaptive optics (AO) imaging of the nearby planetary microlensing event TCP J05074264+2447555 (Kojima-1), which was discovered toward the Galactic anticenter in 2017 (Nucita et al.). We confirm the planetary nature of the light-curve anomaly around the peak while finding no additional planetary feature in this event. We also confirm the presence of apparent blending flux and the absence of significant parallax signal reported in the literature. The AO image reveals no contaminating sources, making it most likely that the blending flux comes from the lens star. The measured multiband lens flux, combined with a constraint from the microlensing model, allows us to narrow down the previously unresolved mass and distance of the lens system. We find that the primary lens is a dwarf on the K/M boundary (0.581 ± 0.033M(ʘ)) located at 505±47 pc, and the companion (Kojima-1Lb) is a Neptune-mass planet (20.0 ± 2.0M(⊕)) with a semimajor axis of 1.08(+0.62, -0.18) au. This orbit is a few times smaller than those of typical microlensing planets and is comparable to the snow-line location at young ages. We calculate that the a priori detection probability of Kojima-1Lb is only ∼35%, which may imply that Neptunes are common around the snow line, as recently suggested by the transit and radial velocity techniques. The host star is the brightest among the microlensing planetary systems (K(s) = 13.7), offering a great opportunity to spectroscopically characterize this system, even with current facilities.

A. Fukui↗

A Comparison of Tropical Storm (TS) and Non-TS Gust Factors for Assessing Peak Wind Probabilities at the Eastern Range

Knowledge of peak wind speeds is important to the safety of personnel and flight hardware at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), but they are more difficult to forecast than mean wind speeds. Development of a reliable model for the gust factor (GF) relating the peak to the mean wind speed motivated a previous study of GF in tropical storms. The same motivation inspired a climatological study of non-TS peak wind speed statistics without the use of GF. Both studies presented their respective statistics as functions of mean wind speed and height. The few comparisons of IS and non-TS GF in the literature suggest that the non-TS GF at a given height and mean wind speed are smaller than the corresponding TS GF. The investigation reported here converted the non-TS peak wind statistics mentioned above to the equivalent GF statistics and compared the results with the previous TS GF results. The advantage of this effort over all previously reported studies of its kind is that the TS and non-TS data are taken from the same towers in the same locations. That eliminates differing surface attributes, including roughness length and thermal properties, as a major source of variance in the comparison. The results are consistent with the literature, but include much more detailed, quantitative information on the nature of the relationship between TS and non-TS GF as a function of height and mean wind speed. In addition, the data suggest the possibility of providing an operational model for non-TS GF as a function of height and wind speed in a manner similar to the one previously developed for TS GF.

Merceret, Francis J.↗

Path Properties of Atmospheric Transitions: Illustration with a Low-Order Sudden Stratospheric Warming Model

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the limited data that are available. Here we describe transition path theory (TPT), a framework originally developed for molecular simulation, and argue that it is a useful paradigm for developing mechanistic understanding of rare climate events. TPT provides a method to calculate statistical properties of the paths into the event. As an initial demonstration of the utility of TPT, we analyze a low-order model of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), a dramatic disturbance to the polar vortex that can induce extreme cold spells at the surface in the midlatitudes. SSW events pose a major challenge for seasonal weather prediction because of their rapid, complex onset and development. Climate models struggle to capture the long-term statistics of SSW, owing to their diversity and intermittent nature. We use a stochastically forced Holton–Mass-type model with two stable states, corresponding to radiative equilibrium and a vacillating SSW-like regime. In this stochastic bistable setting, from certain probabilistic forecasts TPT facilitates estimation of dominant transition pathways and return times of transitions. These “dynamical statistics” are obtained by solving partial differential equations in the model’s phase space. With future application to more complex models, TPT and its constituent quantities promise to improve the predictability of extreme weather events through both generation and principled evaluation of forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigation of hydrometeorological influences on reservoir releases using explainable machine learning methods

Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated successful applications in accurately and efficiently predicting reservoir releases from hydrometeorological drivers including reservoir storage, inflow, precipitation, and temperature. However, due to its black-box nature and lack of process-based implementation, we are unsure whether LSTM makes good predictions for the right reasons. In this work, we use an explainable machine learning (ML) method, called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to evaluate the variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance in the LSTM model prediction. In application to 30 reservoirs over the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States, we show that LSTM can accurately predict the reservoir releases with NSE ≥ 0.69 for all the considered reservoirs despite of their diverse storage sizes, functionality, elevations, etc. Additionally, SHAP indicates that storage and inflow are more influential than precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the storage and inflow show a relatively long-term influence on the release up to 7 days and this influence decreases as the lag time increases for most reservoirs. These findings from SHAP are consistent with our physical understanding. However, in a few reservoirs, SHAP gives some temporal importances that are difficult to interpret from a hydrological point of view, probably because of its ignorance of the variable interactions. SHAP is a useful tool for black-box ML model explanations, but the hydrological processes inferred from its results should be interpreted cautiously. More investigations of SHAP and its applications in hydrological modeling is needed and will be pursued in our future study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fossil Record of Precambrian Life on Land

The argument that the earth's early ocean was up to two times modern salinity was published in 'Nature' and presented at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America in Toronto. The argument is bolstered by chemical data for fluid inclusions in Archean black smokers. The inclusions were 1.7 times the modern salinity causing the authors to interpret the parent fluids as evaporite brines (in a deep marine setting). I reinterpreted the data in terms of the predicted value of high Archean salinities. If the arguments I presented are on track, early life was either halophilic or non-marine. Halophiles are not among the most primitive organisms based on RNA sequencing, so here is an a priori argument that non-marine environments may have been the site of most early biologic evolution. This result carries significant implications for the issue of past life on Mars or current life on the putative sub-ice oceans on Europa and possibly Callisto. If the Cl/H 2 O ratio on these objects is similar to that of the earth, then oceans and oceanic sediments are probably not the preferred sites for early life. On Mars, this means that non-marine deposits such as caliche in basalt may be an overlooked potential sample target.

Paul Knauth↗

J01020100−7122208: an accreted evolved blue straggler that was not ejected from a supermassive black hole

ABSTRACT J01020100−7122208 is a star whose origin and nature still challenges us. It was first believed to be a yellow supergiant ejected from the Small Magellanic Cloud, but it was more recently claimed to be a red giant accelerated by the Milky Way’s central black hole. In order to unveil its nature, we analysed photometric, astrometric, and high-resolution spectroscopic observations to estimate the orbit, age, and 16 elemental abundances. Our results show that this star has a retrograde and highly-eccentric orbit, $e=0.914_{-0.020}^{+0.016}$. Correspondingly, it likely crossed the Galactic disc at 550 pc from the Galactic Centre. We obtained a spectroscopic mass and age of $1.09\pm 0.10\, {\rm M}_\odot$ and 4.51 ± 1.44 Gyr, respectively. Its chemical composition is similar to the abundance of other retrograde halo stars. We found that the star is enriched in europium, having [Eu/Fe] = 0.93 ± 0.24, and is more metal-poor than reported in the literature, with [Fe/H] = −1.30 ± 0.10. This information was used to conclude that J01020100−7122208 is likely not a star ejected from the central black of the Milky Way or from the Small Magellanic Cloud. Instead, we propose that it is simply a halo star that was likely accreted by the Milky Way in the distant past, but its mass and age suggest it is probably an evolved blue straggler.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remediation Technologies Eliminate Contaminants

All research and development has a story behind it, says Jacqueline Quinn, environmental engineer at Kennedy Space Center. For Quinn, one such story begins with the Saturn 1B launch stand at Kennedy and ends with a unique solution to a challenging environmental problem. Used in a number of Apollo missions and during the Skylab program, the Saturn 1B launch stand was dismantled following the transition to the Space Shuttle Program and stored in an open field at Kennedy. Decades later, the Center s Environmental Program Office discovered evidence of chemicals called polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the field s soil. The findings were puzzling since PCBs a toxin classified as a probable carcinogen by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have been banned in the United States since 1979. Before the ban, PCBs were commonly used in transformer oils that leached into the ground when the oils were changed out and dumped near transformer sites, but there were no electrical transformers near the dismantled stand. It soon became apparent that the source of the PCBs was the launch stand itself. Prior to the ban, PCBs were used extensively in paints to add elasticity and other desirable characteristics. The PCB-laden paint on the Saturn 1B launch stand was flaking off into the field s soil. Nobody knew there were PCBs in the paint, says Quinn, noting that the ingredient was not monitored carefully when it was in use in 1960s. In fact, she says, the U.S. EPA was not even established until 1970, a year after Neil Armstrong first set foot on the Moon. Nobody knew any better at the time, Quinn says, but today, we have the responsibility to return any natural environmental media to as close to pristine a condition as possible. Quinn, fellow engineer Kathleen Loftin, and other Kennedy colleagues already had experience developing unprecedented solutions for environmental contamination; the team invented the emulsified zero-valent iron (EZVI) technology to safely treat groundwater tainted by chlorinated solvents once used to clean rocket engine components. The award-winning innovation (Spinoff 2010) is now NASA s most licensed technology to date. PCBs in paint presented a new challenge. Removing the launch stand for recycling proved a difficult operation; the toxic paint had to be fully stripped from the steel structure, a lengthy and costly process that required the stripped paint to be treated before disposal. Noting the lack of efficient, environmentally friendly options for dealing with PCBs, Quinn and her colleagues developed the Activated Metal Treatment System (AMTS). AMTS is a paste consisting of a solvent solution containing microscale particles of activated zero-valent metal. When applied to a painted surface, the paste extracts and degrades the PCBs into benign byproducts while leaving the paint on the structure. This provides a superior alternative to other methods for PCB remediation, such as stripping the paint or incinerating the structure, which prevents reuse and can release volatized PCBs into the air. Since its development, AMTS has proven to be a valuable solution for removing PCBs from paint, caulking, and various insulation and filler materials in older buildings, naval ships, and former munitions facilities where the presence of PCBs interferes with methods for removing trace explosive materials. Miles of potentially toxic caulking join sections of runways at airports. Any of these materials installed before 1979 potentially contain PCBs, Quinn says. "This is not just a NASA problem," she says. "It s a global problem."

Source record↗

Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.

DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗

Soil developments in polar deserts: Implications for exobiology and future Mars missions

Chemical alterations, weathering, and diagenesis of soil profiles from the dry valleys of Antarctica were studied as analogs of regolith development for the Martian regolith. Chemical weathering processes play an important part in soil development within the dry valleys of Antarctica. A suite of core samples were studied which were taken within the valley floors in addition to samples taken in the vicinity of evaporite and brine ponds. Analysis of water soluable cations and anions from core samples were performed along with petrographic analysis of selected samples. It was shown that ionic transport processes operate primarily above the permafrost zone. Abundances of the water soluable ions reflect the nature of secondary minerals produced by evaporation and weathering. Chloride, calcium, and sodium abundances for soils from the cores within the North and South Forks of Wright Valley, reflect the secondary mineralogy of the soil columns. Calculations for Na, Ca, and Cl abundances reflect the appearance of halite and antarcticite. In areas where excess Ca is present, X-ray diffraction studies show the presence of gypsum. It is well known that the Martian surface conditions may be favorable for chemical weathering. Primary silicates would be expected to be reactive with any ground water. It seems likely that Martian subsurface water is available to assist in the weathering of the primary minerals. Such weathering could result in the formation of clays, sulfates, carbonates, hydrates, halides, and zeolites. The dry valley cores have shown that they maybe excellent analogs to weathering processes on the near-surface of Mars. Since movement of water within the near-surface region clearly results in chemical weathering, leaching, and salt formation in the dry valleys, similar processes are probably operating within the Martian regolith.

Gibson, Everett K., Jr.↗

The look-elsewhere effect from a unified Bayesian and frequentist perspective

When searching over a large parameter space for anomalies such as events, peaks, objects, or particles, there is a large probability that spurious signals with seemingly high signi ficance will be found. This is known as the look-elsewhere effect and is prevalent throughout cosmology, (astro)particle physics, and beyond. To avoid making false claims of detection, one must account for this effect when assigning the statistical significance of an anomaly. This is typically accomplished by considering the trials factor, which is generally computed numerically via potentially expensive simulations. In this paper we develop a continuous generalization of the Bonferroni and Sidak corrections by applying the Laplace approximation to evaluate the Bayes factor, and in turn relating the trials factor to the prior-to-posterior volume ratio. Here, we use this to define a test statistic whose frequentist properties have a simple interpretation in terms of the global p-value, or statistical significance. We apply this method to various physics-based examples and show it to work well for the full range of p-values, i.e. in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic regimes. We also show that this method naturally accounts for other model complexities such as additional degrees of freedom, generalizing Wilks' theorem. This provides a fast way to quantify statistical significance in light of the look-elsewhere effect, without resorting to expensive simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Weakening Compton Hump and Soft X-ray Excess Detected in the Seyfert-1 Galaxy MCG –02–58–22

We have carried out an extensive X-ray spectral study of the bare Seyfert-1 galaxy MCG –02–58–22to ascertain the nature of the X-ray reprocessing media, using observations from Suzaku(2009) and simultaneous observations from XMM-Newton and NuSTAR(2016) . The most significant results of our investigation are: 1. The primary X-ray emission from the corona is constant in these observations, both in terms of the power law slope (Γ = 1.80) and luminosity (L2−10 keV= 2.55×1044erg s−1). 2.The soft excess flux decreased by a factor of two in 2016, the Compton hump weakened/vanished in2016, and the narrow FeKαemission line became marginally broad (σ= 0.35±0.08 keV) and its flux doubled in 2016. 3. From physical model fits we find that the normalization of the narrow component of the FeKαline does not change in the two epochs, although the Compton hump vanishes in the same time span. Since the primary X-ray continuum does not change, we presume that any changes in there processed emission must arise due to changes in the reprocessing media. Our primary conclusions are: A. The vanishing of the Compton hump in 2016 can probably be explained by a dynamic clumpytorus which is infalling/outflowing, or by a polar torus wind. B. The torus in this AGN possibly has two structures: an equatorial toroidal disk (producing the narrow FeKαemission) and a polar component(producing the variable Compton hump), C. The reduction of the soft-excess flux by half and increase in the FeKαflux by a factor of two in the same period cannot be adequately explained by ionized disk reflection model alone.

Sibasish Laha↗

Asymmetric Expansion of the Youngest Galactic Supernova Remnant G1.9+0.3

The youngest Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) G1.9+0.3, produced by a (probable) SN Ia that exploded approximately 1900 CE, is strongly asymmetric at radio wavelengths, much brighter in the north, but bilaterally symmetric in X-rays. We present the results of X-ray expansion measurements that illuminate the origin of the radio asymmetry. We confirm the mean expansion rate (2011-2015) of 0.58% per yr, but large spatial variations are present. Using the nonparametric 'Demons' method, we measure the velocity field throughout the entire SNR, finding that motions vary by a factor of 5, from 0.''09 to 0.''44 per yr. The slowest shocks are at the outer boundary of the bright northern radio rim, with velocities v(sub s) as low as 3600 km per sec (for an assumed distance of 8.5 kpc), much less than v(sub s) = 12,000-13,000 km per sec along the X-ray-bright major axis. Such strong deceleration of the northern blast wave most likely arises from the collision of SN ejecta with a much denser than average ambient medium there. This asymmetric ambient medium naturally explains the radio asymmetry. In several locations, significant morphological changes and strongly nonradial motions are apparent. The spatially integrated X-ray flux continues to increase with time. Based on Chandra observations spanning 8.3 yr, we measure its increase at 1.3% +/- 0.8% per yr. The SN ejecta are likely colliding with the asymmetric circumstellar medium ejected by the SN progenitor prior to its explosion.

ISM: individual objects (G1.9+0.3) ISM: individual↗

Probabilistic evolution of stochastic dynamical systems: A meso-scale perspective

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features are used to quantify and propagate uncertainties associated with the initial conditions, external excitations, etc. From a probabilistic modeling standing point, two broad classes of methods exist, i.e. macro-scale methods and micro-scale methods. Classically, macro-scale methods such as statistical moments-based strategies are usually too coarse to capture the multi-mode shape or tails of a non-Gaussian distribution. Micro-scale methods such as random samples-based approaches, on the other hand, become computationally very challenging in dealing with high-dimensional stochastic systems. In view of these potential limitations, a meso-scale scheme is proposed here that utilizes a meso-scale statistical structure to describe the dynamical evolution from a probabilistic perspective. The significance of this statistical structure is twofold. First, it can be tailored to any arbitrary random space. Second, it not only maintains the probability evolution around sample trajectories but also requires fewer meso-scale components than the micro-scale samples. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed meso-scale scheme, a set of examples of increasing complexity are provided. Connections to the benchmark stochastic models as conservative and Markov models along with practical implementation guidelines are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Quantum Theory of the Classical: Einselection, Envariance, Quantum Darwinism and Extantons

Core quantum postulates including the superposition principle and the unitarity of evolutions are natural and strikingly simple. I show that—when supplemented with a limited version of predictability (captured in the textbook accounts by the repeatability postulate)—these core postulates can account for all the symptoms of classicality. In particular, both objective classical reality and elusive information about reality arise, via quantum Darwinism, from the quantum substrate. This approach shares with the Relative State Interpretation of Everett the view that collapse of the wavepacket reflects perception of the state of the rest of the Universe relative to the state of observer’s records. However, our “let quantum be quantum” approach poses questions absent in Bohr’s Copenhagen Interpretation that relied on the preexisting classical domain. Thus, one is now forced to seek preferred, predictable, hence effectively classical but ultimately quantum states that allow observers keep reliable records. Without such (i) preferred basis relative states are simply “too relative”, and the ensuing basis ambiguity makes it difficult to identify events (e.g., measurement outcomes). Moreover, universal validity of quantum theory raises the issue of (ii) the origin of Born’s rule, p k =|ψ k | 2 , relating probabilities and amplitudes (that is simply postulated in textbooks). Last not least, even preferred pointer states (defined by einselection—environment—induced superselection)—are still quantum. Therefore, unlike classical states that exist objectively, quantum states of an individual system cannot be found out by an initially ignorant observer through direct measurement without being disrupted. So, to complete the ‘quantum theory of the classical’ one must identify (iii) quantum origin of objective existence and explain how the information about objectively existing states can appear to be essentially inconsequential for them (as it does for states in Newtonian physics) and yet matter in other settings (e.g., thermodynamics). I show how the mathematical structure of quantum theory supplemented by the only uncontroversial measurement postulate (that demands immediate repeatability—hence, predictability) leads to preferred states. These (i) pointer states correspond to measurement outcomes. Their stability is a prerequisite for objective existence of effectively classical states and for events such as quantum jumps. Events at hand, one can now enquire about their probability—the probability of a pointer state (or of a measurement record). I show that the symmetry of entangled states—(ii) entanglement—assisted invariance or envariance—implies Born’s rule. Envariance also accounts for the loss of phase coherence between pointer states. Thus, decoherence can be traced to symmetries of entanglement and understood without its usual tool—reduced density matrices. A simple and manifestly noncircular derivation of p k =|ψ k | 2 follows. Monitoring of the system by its environment in course of decoherence typically leaves behind multiple copies of its pointer states in the environment. Only pointer states can survive decoherence and can spawn such plentiful information-theoretic progeny. This (iii) quantum Darwinism allows observers to use environment as a witness—to find out pointer states indirectly, leaving systems of interest untouched. Quantum Darwinism shows how epistemic and ontic (coexisting in epiontic quantum state) separate into robust objective existence of pointer states and detached information about them, giving rise to extantons—composite objects with system of interest in the core and multiple records of its pointer states in the halo comprising of environment subsystems (e.g., photons) which disseminates that information throughout the Universe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

This technical paper documents Kennedy Space Centers Independent Assessment team work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer (CSO) and GSDO management during key programmatic reviews. The assessments provided the GSDO Program with an analysis of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, the team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedys Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB).Based on the composite survivability versus time graphs from the first two assessments, there was a soft knee in the Figure of Merit graphs at eight minutes (ten minutes after egress ordered). Thus, the graphs illustrated to the decision makers that the final emergency egress design selected should have the capability of transporting the flight crew from the top of LC 39B to a safe location in eight minutes or less. Results for the third assessment were dominated by hazards that were classified as instantaneous in nature (e.g. stacking mishaps) and therefore had no effect on survivability vs time to egress the VAB. VAB emergency scenarios that degraded over time (e.g. fire) produced survivability vs time graphs that were line with aerospace industry norms.

Joyner, James J., Sr.↗