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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic modeling of the Nb-Ni system with uncertainty quantification using PyCalphad and ESPEI

Here, the Nb–Ni system is remodeled with uncertainty quantification (UQ) using software tools of PyCalphad and ESPEI (the Extensible, Self-optimizing Phase Equilibria Infrastructure) with the presently implemented capability of modeling site fraction based on Wyckoff positions. The five- and three-sublattice models are used to model the topologically close pack (TCP) μ-Nb 7 Ni 6 and δ-NbNi 3 phases according to their Wyckoff positions. The inputs for CALPHAD-based thermodynamic modeling include the thermochemical data as a function of temperature predicted by first-principles and phonon calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations, together with phase equilibrium and site fraction data in the literature. In addition to phase diagram and thermodynamic properties, the CALPHAD-based predictions of site fractions of Nb in μ-Nb 7 Ni 6 agree well with experimental data. Furthermore, the UQ estimation using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method as implemented in ESPEI is applied to study the uncertainty of site fraction in μ-Nb 7 Ni 6 and enthalpy of mixing (ΔH mix ) in liquid.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sorption and electrokinetic properties of ASR product and C-S-H: A comparative modelling study

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) is one of the most important concrete durability issues worldwide. ASR products formed at high temperature have a structure similar to the natural mineral shlykovite. Reactive Grand Canonical Simulations were used to investigate sorption of K{sup +}, Cl{sup −} and Ca{sup 2+} on C-S-H and ASR products at different pH (10.0 to 13.0) and pore water chemistry. Divalent ions can overcompensate for the negative surface charge, in particular for C-S-H, which leads to a co-adsorption of negative species such as Cl{sup −}. At high K/Ca in solution, monovalent K{sup +} can desorb calcium from C-S-H and shlykovite surface. The calculated Ca/K partition coefficient shows a higher affinity of ASR product for K{sup +}, while C-S-H favours Ca{sup 2+}. The uptake of K{sup +} by ASR products lowers the alkali concentration in the solution and could thus slow down the rate of ASR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monte-Carlo modeling of phonon thermal transport using DFT-based anisotropic dispersion relations over the full Brillouin zone

In this work, we present a Monte Carlo (MC) approach to solve the phonon Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) in which the anisotropic phonon dispersion relations over the full Brillouin zone (BZ) are used. In this approach, the discretization of the BZ used to compute the phonon relaxation time places constraints on the direction of scattered phonons in the real-space simulation domain. The phonon dispersion and phonon relaxation times are calculated using the density functional theory (DFT) approach. The modified MC approach is validated by a close examination of its ability to simulate phonon transport in both the ballistic and diffusive regimes for multiple materials including GaAs, InAs, ThO 2 , and α-U. In doing so, the phonon thermal conductivities from 100 K to 1000 K are calculated and compared with traditional non-transport solution of the phonon BTE. It is found that the phonon thermal conductivities of α-U and ThO 2 obtained from MC simulations using isotropic dispersion are larger than the values obtained using anisotropic phonon dispersion relations over the full BZ. The effect of phonon-defect scattering on the thermal conductivity of ThO 2 is also studied as an application of the current MC approach and found to agree with previously computed values in the literature. The MC solver developed here has been parallelized as a step to demonstrate its potential to solving computationally intensive phonon thermal transport problems at the mesoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A tool for assessing demand side management and operating strategies for isolated microgrids

Globally, power system operators are exploring ways to leverage the capabilities of smart meters to implement fine-grained demand side management (DSM). Here this paper presents a new simulation tool to evaluate operating strategies for smart-meter-enabled (SME) islanded microgrids being advanced for sustainable rural electrification in emerging economies. Based on MATLAB/Simulink, the tool's component-level models of small microgrids can be easily configured. Alternative rule-based operating strategies are implemented with controllable supply and storage components as well as other components driven by external factors (e.g., weather and time of day). To account for the wide range of possible operating conditions in real-world applications, statistical metrics can be evaluated using Monte Carlo (MC) methods based on user-defined, time-dependent probability distributions for demands, supplies, and environmental variables. Features of the tool are demonstrated with case studies for a representative microgrid in rural Rwanda.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bridging adsorption behavior of confined CH 4 -CO 2 binary mixtures across scales

An accurate understanding of the competitive adsorption of CH 4 -CO 2 binary mixtures in nano-confined systems is critical for engineering CO 2 storage in shale gas reservoirs. Due to difficulties in making reliable experimental observations in nano-scale, atomistic simulations (ASs), such as the Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) method, provide a viable approach to studying the adsorption behavior of confined fluids. ASs are, however, limited in the size of the compositional domain due to the high computational cost. This work proposes a framework that combines AS and the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method to bridge the physics of confined fluids across scales. The Peng–Robinson equation of state (PR-EoS) produces fugacity coefficients, which serve as input for conducting multi-component GCMC simulations. These GCMC simulations explore the competitive adsorption behavior of CH 4 -CO 2 in nano-slits at various composition, pressure, and channel-width conditions. Both components generate adsorption layers with high densities near the walls with CO 2 preferentially adsorbing compared to CH 4 on the organic walls of carbon sheets. At the mesoscale, a pseudopotential model represents the intermolecular forces in multi-component, multiple-relaxation-time LB simulations. The LB simulations are in good agreement with the GCMC results, allowing us to obtain values for tunable LB parameters. We then extend the use of LB to simulate adsorption behavior in complex networks with nano-sized channels. The phase behavior and fluid properties in the complex geometries of nano-channels differ from nano-slits and bulk systems. Furthermore, the bridging of physics from GCMC (microscale) to LB (mesoscale) via the macroscale PR-EoS connects the adsorption behavior of binary systems across scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Capture efficiency and bias from the defect dynamics near grain boundaries in BCC Fe using mesoscale simulations

The capture efficiency describes the capability of a sink, such as a grain boundary (GB), dislocation, and void, to absorb point defects (PDs). The bias defines the difference in capture efficiency between the absorption of a vacancy and dumbbell at a sink. Complete kinetic information on PDs, including diffusion barriers and diffusion orientations, as well as accurate saddle points, are needed to determine the capture efficiency and bias at a sink accurately, which is computationally demanding. Here, in the present study, the Self-Evolving Atomistic Kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method was used to investigate the defect dynamics of PDs near different types of grain boundaries (GBs) (with both $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$110$\rangle$ families) accurately in body-centered cubic (BCC) iron (Fe). The capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias factor of different types of GBs were determined in Fe, which, different from traditional rate theory estimation, showed a distinct capture efficiency, sink strength, and bias in different GBs. The results demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the capture efficiency and the GB strain width, instead of the GB misorientation, GB energy, or GB-PD binding energy, which have been investigated previously. This work provides valuable insight into the radiation-induced microstructural evolution of GBs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media

Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.

Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event reconstruction in a liquid xenon Time Projection Chamber with an optically-open field cage

nEXO is a proposed tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ) experiment using liquid 136 Xe (LXe) in a Time Projection Chamber (TPC) to read out ionization and scintillation signals. Between the field cage and the LXe vessel, a layer of LXe (“skin” LXe) is present, where no ionization signal is collected. Only scintillation photons are detected, owing to the lack of optical barrier around the field cage. Here, in this work, we show that the light originating in the skin LXe region can be used to improve background discrimination by 5% over previous published estimates. This improvement comes from two elements. First, a fraction of the γ-ray background is removed by identifying light from interactions with an energy deposition in the skin LXe. Then, background from 222 Rn dissolved in the skin LXe can be efficiently rejected by tagging the α decay in the 214 Bi- 214 Po chain in the skin LXe.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation of a TRISO MiniFuel irradiation experiment with data-informed uncertainty quantification

An irradiation experiment using tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles and the miniature fuel (MiniFuel) irradiation vehicle was performed in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to support development of the Kairos Power fluoride salt–cooled, high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR). Here, this paper describes modeling predictions of temperatures and fuel burnup for the as-built experiment. An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis was performed to determine the effect of TRISO particle volume and position on the temperature predictions at various fuel heat generation rates (HGRs). This UQ study utilized fuel kernel position and volume measurements previously collected using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) techniques and Monte Carlo sampling methods to generate fuel compact cases that were then analyzed using a finite element thermal model. The UQ analysis indicated that uncertainty in calculated temperatures caused by varying TRISO particle arrangement is relatively small, even at high fuel HGR. Final predictions of particle temperatures throughout the irradiation are shown to be relevant to KP-FHR normal and off-normal operating conditions and to previous TRISO irradiation experiments. The combination of XCT with UQ analyses will inform post-irradiation examination (PIE) of the irradiated fuel compacts, and these analyses can be used to develop fuel performance models for coated particle fuel forms. Both PIE of separate-effects irradiation data and enhanced fuel performance modeling support accelerated qualification of TRISO fuels for a broad range of advanced reactor applications. The novel approach demonstrated here of measuring TRISO particle configurations with XCT methods and generating representative fuel compacts for finite element modeling and UQ analysis could be leveraged by the broader particle fuel community in the development of other TRISO fuel experiments in which these variables may have a significant impact on key outcomes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment.For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. Here, the resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ.The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Force-Free Identification of Minimum-Energy Pathways and Transition States for Stochastic Electronic Structure Theories

Here, the accurate mapping of potential energy surfaces (PESs) is crucial to our understanding of the numerous physical and chemical processes mediated by atomic rearrangements, such as conformational changes and chemical reactions, and the thermodynamic and kinetic feasibility of these processes. Stochastic electronic structure theories, e.g., Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, enable highly accurate total energy calculations that in principle can be used to construct the PES. However, their stochastic nature poses a challenge to the computation and use of forces and Hessians, which are typically required in algorithms for minimum-energy pathway (MEP) and transition state (TS) identification, such as the nudged elastic band (NEB) algorithm and its climbing image formulation. Here, we present strategies that utilize the surrogate Hessian line-search method, previously developed for QMC structural optimization, to efficiently identify MEP and TS structures without requiring force calculations at the level of the stochastic electronic structure theory. By modifying the surrogate Hessian algorithm to operate in path-orthogonal subspaces and at saddle points, we show that it is possible to identify MEPs and TSs by using a force-free QMC approach. We demonstrate these strategies via two examples, the inversion of the ammonia (NH 3 ) molecule and the nucleophilic substitution (S N 2) reaction F – + CH 3 F → FCH 3 + F – . We validate our results using Density Functional Theory (DFT)- and Coupled Cluster (CCSD, CCSD(T))-based NEB calculations. We then introduce a hybrid DFT-QMC approach to compute thermodynamic and kinetic quantities, free energy differences, rate constants, and equilibrium constants that incorporates stochastically optimized structures and their energies, and show that this scheme improves upon DFT accuracy. Our methods generalize straightforwardly to other systems and other high-accuracy theories that similarly face challenges computing energy gradients, paving the way for highly accurate PES mapping, transition state determination, and thermodynamic and kinetic calculations at significantly reduced computational expense.

Iyer, Gopal R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Competition between Hückel’s Rule and Jahn–Teller Distortion in Small Carbon Rings: A Quantum Monte Carlo Study

Structural properties and energetics of carbon rings are studied with the diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) method. Our DMC-based geometry optimization reveals that both polyynic C 4n and cumulenic C 4n+2 rings exhibit bond length alternations for n >= 3, which is understood to be due to Jahn-Teller distortions. The bond length alternation even in a cumulenic (4n + 2) carbon ring was experimentally observed in a recently synthesized C 18 molecule. From a comparison of the DMC cohesive energies of C 4n with those of C 4n + 2 , we present a comprehensive picture of the competition between Huckel's rule and Jahn-Teller distortion in small carbon rings; the former is more dominant than the latter for n < 5 where C 4n + 2 rings are more stable than C 4n , while C 4n rings are as stable as C 4n + 2 for n < 5 where dimerization effects due to Jahn-Teller distortion are more important.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗