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DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Efficient and reliable 3D dose quality assurance for IMRT by combining independent dose calculations with measurements

Purpose: Advanced radiotherapy treatments require appropriate quality assurance (QA) to verify 3D dose distributions. Moreover, increase in patient numbers demand efficient QA-methods. In this study, a time efficient method that combines model-based QA and measurement-based QA was developed; i.e., the hybrid-QA. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of the model-based QA and to evaluate time efficiency of the hybrid-QA method. Methods: Accuracy of the model-based QA was determined by comparison of COMPASS calculated dose with Monte Carlo calculations for heterogeneous media. In total, 330 intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment plans were evaluated based on the mean gamma index (GI) with criteria of 3%/3mm and classification of PASS (GI {<=} 0.4), EVAL (0.4 < GI > 0.6), and FAIL (GI {>=} 0.6). Agreement between model-based QA and measurement-based QA was determined for 48 treatment plans, and linac stability was verified for 15 months. Finally, time efficiency improvement of the hybrid-QA was quantified for four representative treatment plans. Results: COMPASS calculated dose was in agreement with Monte Carlo dose, with a maximum error of 3.2% in heterogeneous media with high density (2.4 g/cm{sup 3}). Hybrid-QA results for IMRT treatment plans showed an excellent PASS rate of 98% for all cases. Model-based QA was in agreement with measurement-based QA, as shown by a minimal difference in GI of 0.03 {+-} 0.08. Linac stability was high with an average GI of 0.28 {+-} 0.04. The hybrid-QA method resulted in a time efficiency improvement of 15 min per treatment plan QA compared to measurement-based QA. Conclusions: The hybrid-QA method is adequate for efficient and accurate 3D dose verification. It combines time efficiency of model-based QA with reliability of measurement-based QA and is suitable for implementation within any radiotherapy department.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control

This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Building a free-energy functional from atomically resolved imaging: Atomic-scale phenomena in La-doped BiFe O 3

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has enabled mapping of atomic structures of solids with sub-picometer precision, providing insight to the physics of ferroic phenomena and chemical expansion. Yet, only a subset of information is available, due to projective nature of imaging in the beam direction. Correspondingly, the analysis often relies on the postulated form of macroscopic Landau-Ginzburg energy for the ferroic long-range order parameter, and some predefined relationship between experimentally determined atomic coordinates and the order-parameter field. Here, we propose an approach for exploring the structure of ferroics using reduced order-parameter models constructed based on experimental data only. We develop a four-sublattice model (FSM) for the analytical description of A -cation displacement in (anti)ferroelectric-antiferrodistortive perovskites of ABO 3 type. The model describes the displacements of cation A in four neighboring unit cells and determines the conditions of different structural phases’ appearance and stability in ABO 3 . We show that FSM explains the coexistence of rhombohedral, orthorhombic, and spatially modulated phases, observed by atomic-resolution STEM in La-doped BiFeO 3 . Using this method, we atomically resolve and theoretically model the sublattice asymmetry inherent to the case of the A -site La/Bi cation sublattice in La x Bi 1- x FeO 3 polymorphs. This approach allows the exploration of ferroic behaviors from experimental data only, without additional assumptions on the nature of the order parameter.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2017

Making Roads Safer: Optimizing De-icing Using Snowmelt Rates and Slope Data

More than $ 1.5 B is spent annually on snow-control programs in the United States. With an increase in severe winter storms, many municipalities are encountering difficulty in clearing their roads of ice and snow within their budgetary limits. Currently, roads are classified based on traffic counts, with busier (arterial) roads being treated before less busy (secondary) roads. This approach is problematic because most people live on secondary roads and must travel over these untreated roads before they can reach treated roads. In addition, inefficient distribution of de-icing material can have knock-on environmental impacts with increased material run-off into surrounding areas. To address these concerns, we developed a model for categorizing road vulnerability based on snowmelt rate and slope. We calculated the snowmelt rates in 1-m by 1-m squares of all roads in Knox County, Tennessee, using an empirical equation developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This equation takes in freely available weather data and incident solar radiation, which we calculated based on LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data. Using the model results, we propose a more efficient plan: apply de-icers to the steepest roads with the slowest snowmelt, rather than to the busiest roads. Under this approach, we argue that given existing budgetary constraints, more vulnerable roads can be treated with de-icing material and provide for easier mobility for motorists traveling on secondary roads. Our approach provides a more cost-effective, environmentally-conscious, and mobility enhancing application strategy.

Chapin, Fletcher↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Vehicle and Infrastructure Systems Modeling in Washington D.C. and Baltimore

This report documents the Argonne-Exelon effort to develop and utilize an agent-based model (ATEAM) of charging demand and infrastructure expansion applicable to the Washington, DC–Baltimore, MD consolidated metropolitan area. This study extends the ATEAM model time horizon to 10 years (from 2020 to 2030), expands agent behavior modeling capabilities, incorporates more granular and extensive empirical data on charging behavior, and analyzes charging needs for a much larger population of PEVs, in keeping with regional goals for significant adoption of ZEVs. With given targets for annual BEV adoption, five scenarios were developed to examine public infrastructure needs and resulting charging load, considering different home charging availabilities, as well as different PEV consumer profiles and public charging infrastructure deployment strategies. Scenario results show that if new chargers (both L2 and DCFC) are spread more widely (as with ubiquitous deployment strategies), there will be less variation in the number of chargers added to each census tract in the study area. More importantly, widespread public charging infrastructure with ubiquitous deployment strategies reduces unmet charging demand and improves charging success, even with heavy reliance on public charging. About 80 percent of BEV drivers can charge on their first attempt in scenarios with ubiquitous deployment strategies. Moreover, widespread public charging infrastructure better meets the demand for more charging, and in return, increases BEV adoption. Low home charging availability produces higher charging loads in public locations, especially during the early morning (around 8:00 a.m.) and late afternoon (around 6:00 p.m.). The evening peak load indicates that drivers are taking advantage of public charging before heading home. Study results also indicate that even with 20 percent home charging availability in 2030, just 20 percent of drivers attempt to charge on a given day. With their relatively high electric range (200+ miles), the BEVs expected to be on the road in 2030 can handle daily commutes without re-charging for a couple of days.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

The dissolution behavior of borosilicate glasses in far-from equilibrium conditions

In far-from-equilibrium conditions, the dissolution of borosilicate glasses used to immobilize nuclear waste is known to be a function of both temperature and pH. The aim of this paper is to study effects of these variables on three model waste glasses (SON68, ISG, AFCI). To do this, experiments were conducted at temperatures of 23, 40, 70, and 90 °C and pH(RT) values of 9, 10, 11, and 12 with the single-pass flow-through (SPFT) test method. The results from these tests were then used to parameterize a kinetic rate model based on transition state theory. Both the absolute dissolution rates and the rate model parameters are compared with previous results. Discrepancies in the absolute dissolution rates as compared to those obtained using other test methods are discussed. Rate model parameters for the three glasses studied here are nearly equivalent within error and in relative agreement with previous studies. The results were analyzed with a linear multivariate regression (LMR) and a nonlinear multivariate regression performed with the use of the Glass Corrosion Modeling Tool (GCMT), which is capable of providing a robust uncertainty analysis. This robust analysis highlights the high degree of correlation of various parameters in the kinetic rate model. As more data are obtained on borosilicate glasses with varying compositions, the effect of glass composition on the rate parameter values could possibly be obtained. This would allow for the possibility of predicting the forward dissolution rate of glass based solely on composition

Neeway, James J.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Laboratory and Lysimeter Experimentation and Transport Modeling of Neptunium and Strontium in Savannah River Site Sediments

The Savannah River Site (SRS) conducts performance assessment (PA) calculations to determine the appropriate amount of low-level radiological waste that can be safely disposed on site. Parameters are included in these calculations that account for the interaction between the immobile solid phase and the mobile aqueous phase. These parameters are either the distribution coefficient (K$_{d}$ value) or the apparent solubility value (K$_{sp}$). These parameters are readily found in the literature and are used throughout the DOE complex. One shortcoming of K$_{d}$ values is that they are only applicable to a given set of solid and aqueous phase conditions. Therefore, a given radionuclide may have several K$_{d}$ values as it moves between formations and comes into contact with different solids and different aqueous phases. It is expected that the K$_{d}$ construct will be appropriate to use for a majority of the PA and for a majority of the radionuclides. However, semi-mechanistic models would be more representative in isolated cases where the chemistry is especially transitory or the radionuclide chemistry is especially complex, bringing to bear multiple species of varying sorption tendencies to the sediment. Semi-mechanistic models explicitly accommodate the dependency of K$_{d}$ values, or other sorption parameters, on contaminant concentration, competing ion concentrations, pH-dependent surface charge on the adsorbent, and solute species distribution. Incorporating semi-mechanistic concepts into geochemical models is desirable to make the models more robust and technically defensible. Furthermore, these alternative models could be used to augment or validate a K$_{d}$-based DOE Order 435.1 Performance Assessment. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a quantitative thermodynamically-based model for neptunium sorption to SRS sediments, and 2) determine a sorption constant from an SRS 11-year lysimeter study. The modeling studies were conducted with existing data sets. The first data set used laboratory generated Np sorption data as a function of concentration (three orders of magnitude) and as a function of pH (four orders of magnitude of proton concentration). In this modeling exercise, a very simple solution was identified by assuming that all sorption occurred only to the iron oxides in the sediment and that all the added NpO$_{4}$$^{-}$ remained in the oxidized state and was not reduced to the Np(IV) state (as occurs rapidly with Pu(V)). With rather limited input data, very good agreement between experimental and modeling results was observed. This modeling approach would be easy to add to the PA with little additional data requirements. This model would be useful in a system where pH is expected to change greatly, such as directly beneath a grout or concrete structure. The second model discussed in the report was to derive strontium K$_{d}$ values from data collected in an 11-year-old field transport study. In this controlled lysimeter study, a sensitivity analysis was conducted of hydrological and chemical processes that influence contaminant transport, including diffusion coefficients, seepage velocity, and K$_{d}$ value. The best overall K$_{d}$ derived from the model fit to the data was 32 L kg$^{-1}$, which was the same value that was previously measured in traditional laboratory batch sorption studies. This was an unexpected result given the differences in experimental conditions between the batch test and the lysimeter flow through test, in particular the differences between strontium adsorption and desorption processes occurring in the latter test and not in the former. There were some trends in the lysimeter strontium data that were not predicted by the K$_{d}$ model, which suggest that other geochemical processes are likely also controlling strontium transport. Strontium release and cation exchange are being evaluated. These results suggest that future modeling efforts (e.g., PAs) could be improved by employing a more robust semi-empirical modeling approach to transient or complex conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a U-19Pu-10Zr fuel performance benchmark case based on the IFR-1 experiment

Metallic nuclear fuels are subject to research and development for use in advanced reactors. Robust, accurate metallic fuel performance models are important for the design, safety analysis, and licensing of these reactors. However, metallic fuel performance models require additional development; they are not as mature as UO 2 fuel performance models. A benchmark case based on the IFR-1 experiment was developed to better gauge the accuracy of existing models, identify models for high-priority development, and potentially quantify any future improvements made by further model development.This work collected publicly available information on the IFR-1 experiment and used it to develop the benchmark case. Fuel behavior during the IFR-1 irradiation was simulated by using the fuel performance code BISON, and the predicted results were compared with postirradiation examination data from the IFR-1 experiment. Furthermore, a sensitivity study and tuning studies were performed as a preliminary investigation into the causes of inaccurate temperature and dimensional change predictions.The benchmark predicted reasonably accurate values for the burnup and fission gas release. There was error in the predicted temperatures, which could be explained by uncertainty in the input parameters and legacy temperatures. BISON over-predicted dimensional changes in the fuel and cladding. The sensitivity study showed that the dimensional changes were most sensitive to the fuel swelling anisotropy and the cladding void swelling model. Future benchmark and model development should focus on cladding swelling behaviors to improve dimensional change predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of Fusion Neutronics Methodology, Software, and Testing Facility in FDS Team

Fusion neutronics including methodology, software, experiments, etc. is studied concerning the generation, utilizing and protection of neutrons in fusion facilities. Achievements have been made in the past decades to solve the new problems fusion neutronics. However there is still some way to go such as following. Automatic modeling method based on CAD has been developed to avoid the heavy burden of manual geometry description. The pre-processing costs much time to simplify the CAD model for converting to Constructive Solid Geometry (CSG), 2D or 3D mesh based geometry. This problem has become a new focus. Deep penetration of radiation shielding is notable problem for fusion. Adaptive variance reduction methods such as Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (CADIS) were developed to accelerate convergence. However the gap still exists between engineering requirements and current methodology. The geometry simplification, homogenizing based tally, error in nuclear data and error propagation in coupled calculation, etc., causes considerable uncertainty, which leads to 'safety factor' applied in simulation results to achieve required safety margin. It can significantly raise the cost and even makes it impractical to initiate the fusion facilities. Uncertainty qualification, error analysis and error propagation problem should be studied. New methodology and software should be validated. For example the (n,p), (n,a), (n,t) cross section of Cu, Fe, W, Ni which is important for evaluation of material radiation damage is absent. The validation of neutronics properties of special components such as first wall, blanket and coil are needed. The D-T fusion neutron generator can directly represent the neutron environment in fusion reactors. However the neutron yield is several orders of magnitudes lower than requirements. To resolve obstacles in fusion neutronics, broad improvements of methodology, software and testing facility have been achieved by FDS Team in recent years and the main progress was introduced in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

An efficient Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect using a multivariate adaptive regression spline method

In this study, an efficient Bayesian framework equipped with a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) technique is developed to alleviate computational burdens encountered in a conventional Bayesian inversion of a geothermal prospect. Fast MARS models are developed from training dataset generated by CPU-intensive hydrothermal models and used as surrogate of high-fidelity physical models in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. This Bayesian inference with MARS-enabled MCMC method is used to reduce prior estimates of uncertainty in structural or characteristic hydrothermal flow parameters of the model to posterior distributions. A geothermal prospect near Superstition Mountain in Imperial County of California in USA is used to illustrate the proposed framework and demonstrate the computational efficiency of MARS-based Bayesian inversion. The developed MARS models are also used to efficiently drive calculation of Sobol’ total sensitivity indices. Furthermore, only top sensitive parameters are included in Bayesian inference to further improve the computational efficiency of inversion. Sensitivity analysis also confirms that water circulation through high permeable structures, rather than heat conduction through impermeable granite, is the primary heat transfer method. The presented framework is demonstrated an efficient tool to update knowledge of geothermal prospects by inversing field data. Although only thermal data is used in this study, other type of data, such as flow and transport observations, can be jointly used in this method for underground hydrocarbon reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-F-BRD-13: A Phenomenological Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) Model for Proton Therapy Based On All Published in Vitro Cell Survival Data

Purpose: Proton therapy treatments are currently planned and delivered using the assumption that the proton relative biological effectiveness (RBE) relative to photons is 1.1. This assumption ignores strong experimental evidence that suggests the RBE varies. A recent review study (Paganetti 2014), collected over 72 experimental reports on proton RBE, providing a comprehensive dataset for predicting proton RBE. Using this dataset we develop a model to predict RBE based on dose, linear energy transfer (LET) and the tissue specific parameter (α/β)x. Methods: The relationship of the RBE on dose, dose average LET (LETd) and (α/β)x was explored using 290 experimental data points. The RBE was calculated for each experimental point for doses ranging from 1 to 10 Gy. An RBE model, based on the linear-quadratic model, was derived using a nonlinear regression fit to the experimental data. Results: The proposed RBE model predicts that the RBE increases with LET and decreases with (α/β)x. The model additionally predicts a decrease in RBE with increasing dose for low (α/β)x values (< 3 Gy). However the model predicts an increase in RBE with increasing dose for large (α/β)x (> 4 Gy). Previous phenomenological models were based on a small subset of experimental data and deviate significantly from our findings. Conclusion: The proposed RBE model is derived using the most comprehensive collection of proton RBE experimental data to date. The model agrees with previous theoretical predictions on the relationship between RBE, LETd and (α/β)x and also makes predictions on the relationship between RBE and dose. The proposed model shows a relationship between α and LETd but no significant relationship between β and LETd. Previously published phenomenological models based on a limited data set might have to be revised.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

TU-A-9A-03: Development and Verification of a Forward Model That Assists in Iterative Post-Processing Algorithms Used to Reduce Blur in Compton Backscatter Imaging Systems

Purpose: In Compton Backscatter Imaging (CBI), the source and detector reside on the same side of the patient. We previously demonstrated the applicability of CBI systems for medical purposes using an industrial system. To assist in post-processing images from a CBI system, a forward model based on radiation absorption and scatter principles has been developed. Methods: The forward model was developed in C++ using raytracing to track particles. The algorithm accepts phantoms of any size and resolution to calculate the fraction of incident photons scattered back to the detector, and can perform these calculations for any detector geometry and source specification. To validate the model, results were compared to MCNP-X, which is a Monte Carlo based simulation software, for various combinations of source specifications, detector geometries, and phantom compositions. Results: The model verified that the backscatter signal to the detector was based on three interaction probabilities: a) attenuation of photons going into the phantom, b) Compton scatter of photons toward the detector, and c) attenuation of photons coming out of the phantom. The results from the MCNP-X simulations and the forward model varied from 1 to 5%. This difference was less than 1% for energies higher than 30 keV, but was up to 4% for lower energies. At 50 keV, the difference was less than 1% for multiple detector widths and for both homogeneous and heterogeneous phantoms. Conclusion: As part of the optimization of a medical CBI system, an efficient and accurate forward model was constructed in C++ to estimate the output of CBI system. The model characterized individual components contributing to CBI output and increased computational efficiency over Monte Carlo simulations. It is now used in the development of novel post-processing algorithms that reduce image blur by reversing undesired contribution from outside the region of interest.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting with capital stock change highlights dynamics of fast-developing countries

Traditional consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting attributed the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions to international trade. Yet few attempts have analyzed the temporal deviation between current emissions and future consumption, which can be explained through changes in capital stock. Here we develop a dynamic model to incorporate capital stock change in consumption-based accounting. The new model is applied using global data for 1995–2009. Our results show that global emissions embodied in consumption determined by the new model are smaller than those obtained from the traditional model. The emissions embodied in global capital stock increased steadily during the period. However, capital plays very different roles in shaping consumption-based emissions for economies with different development characteristics. As a result, the dynamic model yields similar consumption-based emissions estimation for many developed countries comparing with the traditional model, but it highlights the dynamics of fast-developing countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part II: QSAR models of skin permeability and the relationships between skin permeability and skin sensitization

Skin permeability is widely considered to be mechanistically implicated in chemically-induced skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been identified as skin sensitizers, there have been very few reports analyzing the relationships between molecular structure and skin permeability of sensitizers and non-sensitizers. The goals of this study were to: (i) compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset of chemicals studied for their skin permeability; (ii) develop and rigorously validate QSAR models to predict skin permeability; and (iii) explore the complex relationships between skin sensitization and skin permeability. Based on the largest publicly available dataset compiled in this study, we found no overall correlation between skin permeability and skin sensitization. In addition, cross-species correlation coefficient between human and rodent permeability data was found to be as low as R{sup 2} = 0.44. Human skin permeability models based on the random forest method have been developed and validated using OECD-compliant QSAR modeling workflow. Their external accuracy was high (Q{sup 2}{sub ext} = 0.73 for 63% of external compounds inside the applicability domain). The extended analysis using both experimentally-measured and QSAR-imputed data still confirmed the absence of any overall concordance between skin permeability and skin sensitization. This observation suggests that chemical modifications that affect skin permeability should not be presumed a priori to modulate the sensitization potential of chemicals. The models reported herein as well as those developed in the companion paper on skin sensitization suggest that it may be possible to rationally design compounds with the desired high skin permeability but low sensitization potential. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin permeability dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin permeability. • No concordance between skin sensitization and skin permeability has been found. • Structural rules for optimizing sensitization and penetration were established.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗